Financial Modeling to Support Organizational Control

Tutkimus tarkastelee taloudellisia mallintamismahdollisuuksia metsäteollisuuden liiketoimintayksikössä. Tavoitteena on suunnitella ja luoda taloudellinen malli liiketoimintayksikölle, jonka avulla sen tuloksen analysoiminen ja ennustaminen on mahdollista. Tutkimusta tarkastellaan konstruktiivisen tutkimusmenetelmän avulla. Teoreettinen viitekehys tarkastelee olemassa olevan informaation muotoilemista keskittyen tiedon jalostamisen tarpeisiin, päätöksenteon asettamiin vaatimuksiin sekä mallintamiseen. Toiseksi, teoria esittää informaatiolle asetettavia vaatimuksia organisatorisen ohjauksen näkökulmasta.Empiirinen tieto kerätään osallistuvan havainnoinnin avulla hyödyntäen epävirallisia keskusteluja, tietojärjestelmiä ja laskentatoimen dokumentteja. Tulokset osoittavat, että liikevoiton ennustaminen mallin avulla on vaikeaa, koska taustalla vaikuttavien muuttujien määrä on suuri. Tästä johtuen malli täytyykin rakentaa niin, että se tarkastelee liikevoittoa niin yksityiskohtaisella tasolla kuin mahdollista. Testauksessa mallin tarkkuus osoittautui sitä paremmaksi, mitä tarkemmalla tasolla ennustaminen tapahtui. Lisäksi testaus osoitti, että malli on käyttökelpoinen liiketoiminnan ohjauksessa lyhyellä aikavälillä. Näin se luo myös pohjan pitkän aikavälin ennustamiselle.

Stock and Bond Market Integration: Evidence from Russian Financial Markets

Minimizing the risks of an investment portfolio but not in the favour of expected returns is one of the key interests of an investor. Typically, portfolio diversification is achieved using two main strategies: investing in different classes of assets thought to have little or negative correlations or investing in similar classes of assets in multiple markets through international diversification. This study investigates integration of the Russian financial markets in the time period of January 1, 2003 to December 28, 2007 using daily data. The aim is to test the intra-country and cross-country integration of the Russian stock and bond markets between seven countries. Our test methodology for the short-run dynamics testing is the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and for the long-run cointegration testing we use the Johansen cointegration test which is an extension to VAR. The empirical results of this study show that the Russian stock and bond markets are not integrated in the long-run either at intra-country or cross-country level which means that the markets are relatively segmented. The short-run dynamics are also relatively low. This implies a presence of potential gains from diversification.

Managing the crises : how did local governments react to the financial crisis in 2008 and what explains the differences ? The case of Swiss municipalities

Swiss municipalities are, to a large extent, responsible for their financial resources. Since these resources primarily depend on income and property taxes from individuals and enterprises, municipality budgets are likely to be directly affected by the current crisis in the financial sector and the economy. This article investigates how municipalities perceived this threat and how they reacted to it. In a nationwide survey conducted at the end of 2009 in all 2596 Swiss municipalities, we asked local secretaries which measures had been launched in order to cope with expected losses in tax income and a possible increase in welfare spending. Did the municipalities rely on Keynesian measures increasing public spending and accepting greater deficits, or did they try to avoid further deficits by using austerity measures and a withdrawal of planned investments? Our results show that only a few municipalities - mainly the bigger ones - expected to be greatly affected by the crisis. Their reactions, however, did not reveal any clear patterns that theory would lead one to expect. Preferences for austerity measures and deficit spending become visible but many municipalities took measures from both theories. The strongest explanatory factors for determining how/why municipalities react are: the municipality's level of affectedness followed by whether or not the municipality belongs to the French-speaking part of the country. Size also has an impact, whereas the strength of the Social Democrat party is negligible. Explaining what kind of measures municipalities are likely to take is more difficult. However, the more a municipality is affected, the more likely it is to stick to austerity measures.

Capital Structure of Finnish SMEs and Financial Constraints

This thesis studies capital structure of Finnish small and medium sized enterprises. The specific object of the study is to test whether financial constraints have an effect on capital structure. In addition influences of several other factors were studied. Capital structure determinants are formulated based on three capital structure theories. The tradeoff theory and the agency theory concentrate on the search of optimal capital structure. The pecking order theory concerns favouring on financing source over another. The data of this study consists of financial statement data and results of corporate questionnaire. Regression analysis was used to find out the effects of several determinants. Regression models were formed based on the presented theories. Short and long term debt ratios were considered separately. The metrics of financially constrained firms was included in all models. It was found that financial constrains have a negative and significant effect to short term debt ratios. The effect was negative also to long term debt ratio but not statistically significant. Other considerable factors that influenced debt ratios were fixed assets, age, profitability, single owner and sufficiency of internal financing.

Competitors' Financial Performance Monitoring Model

The objective of the thesis was to develop a competitors’ financial performance monitoring model for management reporting. The research consisted of the selections of the comparison group and the performance meters as well as the actual creation of the model. A brief analysis of the current situation was also made. The aim of the results was to improve the financial reporting quality in the case organization by adding external business environment observation to the management reports. The comparison group for the case company was selected to include five companies that were all involved in power equipment engineering and project type business. The most limiting factor related to the comparison group selection was the availability of quarterly financial reporting. The most suitable performance meters were defined to be the developments of revenue, order backlog and EBITDA. These meters should be monitored systematically on quarterly basis and reported to the company management in a brief and informative way. The monitoring model was based on spreadsheet construction with key characteristics being usability, flexibility and simplicity. The model acts as a centered storage for financial competitor information as well as a reporting tool. The current market situation is strongly affected by the economic boom in the recent years and future challenges can be clearly seen in declining order backlogs. The case company has succeeded well related to its comparison group during the observation period since its business volume and profitability have developed in the best way.

Financial integration and TARGET2-Securities – A stakeholder approach

The purpose of this study was to analyze how different stakeholders, such as the European Central Bank, the European Commission, the European Central Securities Depositories Association, the Bank of International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund, have influenced the European financial integration in the area of securities clearing and settlement since the introduction of the single currency. The results show that the contribution differs from stakeholder to another and can take the form of standards and recommendations, legislation, research and publications, risk analysis etc. The Eurosystem has been particularly active in this area by proving and planning central bank services, such as TARGET2, CCMB2 and T2S. Along the way the development has and continues to face challenges that need to be solved by European authorities. Coordination is a key factor for the future as we have seen during the recent financial turmoil.

Financial and Environmental Impacts of a Dry Port to Facilitate Competitiveness of Two Major Transit Seaports of Finland

Environmental problems and issues have received more and more attention during the last decades. Reasons for this are different increased external costs such as congestion, CO2 emission, noise and accident costs. Transportation sector is the only sector with increasing external costs. The EU will increase its attention in decreasing the external costs of transport. Aim of this research was to find out if a dry port solution could decrease costs of transport, especially external costs. Dry port concept is an intermodal transport system, where inland transport between port and dry port is performed by rail transport instead of traditional road transport. In addition, dry ports offer similar services as ports. Research is conducted by performing a literature review about dry port concept and costs of transport, especially external costs of transport. Financial and environmental impacts of the dry port concept are studied by comparing costs of road and rail transport by cost accounting and with a simulation model. Location of dry port is researched with gravitational models. Results of the literature review are that rail transport is environmentally friendlier mode of transport than road transport. Cost model and simulation model show that if only costs of freight movement are considered, rail transport is more inexpensive transport mode than road transport in terms of internal and external costs. Because of that dry port concept could decrease costs of transport, especially external costs. Results of gravitational models are that city of Kouvola is in a good position to be a dry port. Russian transit traffic through Finland improves location of Kouvola to be a dry port.

The determination of EONIA rate: The impact of the financial crisis and the effects of the changes in the monetary policy implementation framework

EONIA is a market based overnight interest rate, whose role as the starting point of the yield curve makes it critical from the perspective of the implementation of European Central Bank´s common monetary policy in the euro area. The financial crisis that started in 2007 had a large impact on the determination mechanism of this interest rate, which is considered as the central bank´s operational target. This thesis examines the monetary policy implementation framework of the European Central Bank and changes made to it. Furthermore, we discuss the development of the recent turmoil in the money market. EONIA rate is modelled by means of a regression equation using variables related to liquidity conditions, refinancing need, auction results and calendar effects. Conditional volatility is captured by an EGARCH model, and autocorrelation is taken into account by employing an autoregressive structure. The results highlight how the tensions in the initial stage of the market turmoil were successfully countered by ECB´s liquidity policy. The subsequent response of EONIA to liquidity conditions under the full allotment liquidity provision procedure adopted after the demise of Lehman Brothers is also established. A clear distinction in the behavior of the interest rate between the sub-periods was evident. In the light of the results obtained, some of the challenges posed by the exit-strategy implementation will be addressed.

Financial performance of segments in the intelligent home network

The goal of this study is to examine the intelligent home business network in order to determine which part of the network has the best financial abilities to produce new business models and products/services by using financial statement analysis. A group of 377 studied limited companies is divided into four examined segments based on their offering in producing intelligent homes. The segments are customer service providers, system integrators, subsystem suppliers and component suppliers. Eight different key figures are calculated from each of the companies to get a comprehensive view of their financial performances, after which each of the segments is studied statistically to determine the performances of the whole segments. The actual performance differences between the segments are calculated by using the multi-criteria decision analysis method in which the performances of the key figures are graded and each key figure is weighted according to its importance for the goal of the study. The results of this analysis showed that subsystem suppliers have the best financial performance. Second best are system integrators, third are customer service providers and fourth component suppliers. None of the segments were strikingly poor, but even component suppliers were rather reasonable in their performance; so, it can be said that no part of the intelligent home business network has remarkably inadequate financial abilities to develop new business models and products/services.

From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Financial losses in pork supply chain: a study of the pre-slaughter handling impacts

Brazil is amongst the world’s largest swine producers. However, its competitiveness has been vulnerable due to a lack of cooperation between the supply chain players. This condition makes the financial losses to be evaluated taking into account only an individual node, and most of the time, these damages are imputed by swine breeders. Living weight losses occur between the farm to slaughterhouses, and the main cause of these losses is the pre-slaughter handling, especially during animal transportation. In this research, we analyzed the pre-slaughter handling in a swine farm in Brasilândia, MS, Brazil. Analyzed data were provided by five slaughterhouses (farm clients) from the studied region, in which it was considered living weight losses, carcass bruising, animal injury, and death rate. The results indicated that total financial losses represent 160 thousand dollars per year, when taking into account the supply chain management.

CSR standards and financial performance in forest industry - Empirical analysis

The definition of corporate social responsibility (CSR) has been developed since 1950s but even today there is no consensus what CSR includes. The main purpose of this thesis was to find out whether financial performance is better among first adopters of CSR standards in forest industry. To support the main purpose it was critical also investigate what kind of companies adopt CSR standards. The empirical part of the thesis based on a survey which was done in 2010 to forest industry companies and financial data that was gathered from different databases from years 2003-2010. According to the research results it seems the early CSR standards adopters benefits the position of the first adopter many times. Especially cash position and solvency of early adopter companies were better than later adopters or those who did not adopt CSR standards at all. Profitability seemed to be better among CSR standards adopters but early adopters did not have significantly better position compared to later adopters. CSR standards adopters were companies that considered themselves as environmental performance pioneers and had employee oriented management.

The effectiveness of financial innovation support tools. Comparative study of Latvia and Finland

In the Innovation Union Scoreboard of 2011, Latvia ranked last amongst the EU countries in innovation performance. Even though there is sufficient scientific and technological basis, the results remain modest or low in most of the indicators concerning innovations. Several aspects influence the performance a national innovation system. In Latvia, the low effectiveness is often attributed to lack of financial support tools. As a comparison, Finland was chosen because of its well-established and documented innovation system. The aim of this study is to research the efficiency and effectiveness of the current financial innovation support tool system in Latvia from the point of view of an innovating company. It also attempts to analyze the support tool system of Latvia and compare to the relevant parts of the Finnish system. The study found that it is problematic for innovative companies in Latvia to receive the necessary funding especially for start-ups and SMEs due to the low number of grant programs, funds and lacking offer from banks, venture capital and business angels. To improve the situation, the Latvian government should restructure the funding mechanisms putting a bigger emphasis on innovative start-ups and SMEs. That would lay a foundation for future growth and boost research and scientific activities in Latvia.

Financial Slack and Bidding Firms’ Takeover Announcement Stock Returns – an Event Study

Despite the fact that the literature on mergers and acquisitions is extensive, relatively little effort has been made to examine the relationship between the acquiring firms’ financial slack and short-term post-takeover announcement abnormal stock returns. In this study, the case is made that the financial slack of a firm is not only an outcome of past business and financing activities but it also may affect the quality of acquisition decisions. We will hypothesize that the level of financial slack in a firm is negatively associated with the abnormal returns following acquisition announcements because slack reduces managerial discipline over the use of corporate funds and also because it may give rise to managerial self-serving behavior. In this study, financial slack is measured in terms of three financial statements ratios: leverage ratio, cash and equivalents to total assets ratio and free cash flow to total assets ratio. The data used in this paper is collected from two main sources. A list comprising 90 European acquisition announcements is retrieved from Thomson One Banker database. The stock price data and financial statements information for the respective firms is collected using Datastream. Our empirical analysis is two-fold. First, we conduct a two-sample t-test where we find that the most slack-rich firms experience lower abnormal returns than the most slack-poor firms in the event window [-1, +1], significant at 5% risk level. Second, we perform a cross sectional regression for sample firms using three financial statements ratios to explain cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). We find that leverage shows a statistically significant positive relationship with cumulative abnormal returns in event window [-1; +1] (significance 5%). Moreover, cash to total assets ratio showed a weak negative relationship with CAR (significant at 10%) in event window [-1; +1]. We conclude that our hypothesis for the inverse relationship between slack and abnormal returns receives empirical support. Based on the results of the event study we get empirical support for the hypothesis that the capital markets expect the acquisitions undertaken by slack-rich firms to more likely be driven by managerial self-serving behavior and hubris than do those undertaken by slackpoor firms, signaling possible agency problems and behavioral biases.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.