Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting.

Os Crimes fiscais: em especial, o crime de abuso de confiança (fiscal)

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Professor Dr. António da Costa Oliveira

Regime fiscal aplicável às entidades sem fins lucrativos em Portugal e em Espanha

Em Portugal, as entidades sem fins lucrativos estão sujeitas, principalmente, ao imposto sobre o rendimento das pessoas colectivas, ao imposto de selo, ao imposto sobre o valor acrescentado e ao regime fiscal do mecenato. Em Espanha, foi criado o regime fiscal das entidades sem fins lucrativos e dos incentivos fiscais ao mecenato, regulado pela lei n.º49/2002, de 23 de Dezembro, que prevê a atribuição de benefícios fiscais em matéria de Impuesto sobre Sociedades, Impuesto sobre Transmisiones Palrimoniales y Actos Jurídicos Documentados, Impuesto sobre Bienes inmuebles e Impuesto sobre incrementos de Valor de los Terrenos.

Gestão fiscal e benefícios fiscais

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria, sob orientação de Doutor José Campos Amorim

O crime de fraude fiscal: o impacto na receita pública do Estado

Orientador: Doutor, José Domingos Silva Fernandes

Planeamento fiscal abusivo: exemplificação de alguns esquemas

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças sobre a orientação do Doutor José Campos Amorim.

O regime fiscal cooperativo – análise crítica e desafios

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Doutora Deolinda Meira e Doutora Nina Aguiar

Fiscal decentralisation and economic theory

There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: “first generation of theories” and “second generation of theories”.

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

The role of income inequality on fiscal multipliers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics from the Nova School of Business and Economics and University of Maastricht

A harmonização fiscal europeia

With this dissertation we aim to analyze the most relevant aspects of the excise duties harmonized regime, considering Community origins, but having also in attention all legal specifications of its implementation in Portugal. The legal regime of excise duties is presented as an ambitious theme, considering the challenge of different branches of law that influence this subject, such as Tax, Economic and Community laws, the inescapable influence of customs procedures, or regarding environmental objectives. In the European context, the harmonization of excise duties was seen as a condition for the implementation of the internal market, contributing to undo secular tax barriers between Member States and, since so, ensure fair competition and free movement of services and goods. Along with VAT, the excise duties harmonization process could represent a potential European tax system, essential for a full and integrated single market. In this context, it is essential to pay special attention to specific characteristics of excise duties regime, such as ‘duty suspension arrangement’ applicable during the production phase, storage and movement in certain conditions. The growing importance of excise duties, as for revenue or extra-fiscal purposes, recommends new academic studies on this subject, seeking new opportunities and challenges.

O sigilo bancário e a fraude fiscal

Tax evasion and fraud threaten the economic and social objectives of modern tax systems, precluding the state funding for the satisfaction of collective needs and the fair distribution of wealth, being a violation of basic principles and values of our society. In tax law, to give tax administration the necessary powers to supervise and control the information provided by taxpayers and combat tax evasion and fraud, over the last years the grounds for a derogation of bank secrecy without judicial authorization have been extended, which raises some constitutional compatibility issues. Similarly, this tendency of making this legal regime more flexible and increasing automatic exchange of information has been followed by the European Union and the international community. Banking secrecy, as a professional secrecy, is an instrument to protect the right to privacy but also appears as an anti-abuse and repressive mechanism of evasive and fraudulent behaviors. Because of the conflict of interests will always be necessary to make a practical agreement between them, ensuring the legality and the due guarantees of the taxpayers but also an effective way to combat tax evasion and fraud. Bank secrecy cannot be one method to, behind the right to privacy, taxpayers practice illegal activities. But the practice of these irregular conducts also does not justify a total annihilation of the right to banking secrecy, uncovering all documents and bank information’s. Although considering the legislative changes, the administrative derogation of bank secrecy will always be what the tax administration does of it.