A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre (The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertainty. Analysing the EPS forecasting error in Hungary and Austria)

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. _____ The author investigated the impact of the financial crisis that started in 2008 on the forecasting error for earnings per share. There is plentiful evidence from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favourable values in their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts than reality, i.e. they are generally optimistic. Other investigations have supported the idea that the EPS forecasting error is greater under uncertain environmental circumstances, while other researchers prove that the analysts under-react to the negative information in their forecasts. The financial crisis brought a myriad of negative information for analysts to consider in such forecasts, while also increasing the level of uncertainty for the entire economy. The article investigates the impact of the financial crisis on the EPS forecasting error, distinguishing the period when the crisis gave merely negative information, from the one when its effect of uncertainty was significantly increased over the entire economy.

Discharge measurements and storm event chemistry at the San Francisco River station (Planta) in 2007-2008

To improve our knowledge of the influence of land-use on solute behaviour and export rates in neotropical montane catchments we investigated total organic carbon (TOC), Ca, Mg, Na, K, NO3 and SO4 concentrations during April 2007-May 2008 at different flow conditions and over time in six forested and pasture-dominated headwaters (0.7-76 km2) in Ecuador. NO3 and SO4 concentrations decreased during the study period, with a continual decrease in NO3 and an abrupt decrease in February 2008 for SO4. We attribute this to changing weather regimes connected to a weakening La Niña event. Stream Na concentration decreased in all catchments, and Mg and Ca concentration decreased in all but the forested catchments during storm flow. Under all land-uses TOC increased at high flows. The differences in solute behaviour during storm flow might be attributed to largely shallow subsurface and surface flow paths in pasture streams on the one hand, and a predominant origin of storm flow from the organic layer in the forested streams on the other hand. Nutrient export rates in the forested streams were comparable to the values found in literature for tropical streams. They amounted to 6-8 kg/ha/y for Ca, 7-8 kg/ha/y for K, 4-5 kg/ha/y for Mg, 11-14 kg/ha/y for Na, 19-22 kg/ha/y for NO3 (i.e. 4.3-5.0 kg/ha/y NO3-N) and 17 kg/ha/y for SO4. Our data contradict the assumption that nutrient export increases with the loss of forest cover. For NO3 we observed a positive correlation of export value and percentage forest cover.

Recuperação e purificação do antígeno 503 de Leishmania i. chagasi expresso em E. coli e remoção de endotoxina utilizando adsorção em leito expandido

The growing interest and applications of biotechnology products have increased the development of new processes for recovery and purification of proteins. The expanded bed adsorption (EBA) has emerged as a promising technique for this purpose. It combines into one operation the steps of clarification, concentration and purification of the target molecule. Hence, the method reduces the time and the cost of operation. In this context, this thesis aim was to evaluate the recovery and purification of 503 antigen of Leishmania i. chagasi expressed in E. coli M15 and endotoxin removal by EBA. In the first step of this study, batch experiments were carried out using two experimental designs to define the optimal adsorption and elution conditions of 503 antigen onto Streamline chelating resin. For adsorption assays, using expanded bed, it was used a column of 2.6 cm in diameter by 30.0 cm in height coupled to a peristaltic pump. In the second step of study, the removal of endotoxin during antigen recovery process was evaluated employing the non-ionic surfactant Triton X-114 in the washing step ALE. In the third step, we sought developing a mathematical model able to predict the 503 antigen breakthrough curves in expanded mode. The experimental design results to adsorption showed the pH 8.0 and the NaCl concentration of 2.4 M as the optimum adsorption condition. In the second design, the only significant factor for elution was the concentration of imidazole, which was taken at 600 mM. The adsorption isotherm of the 503 antigen showed a good fit to the Langmuir model (R = 0.98) and values for qmax (maximum adsorption capacity) and Kd (equilibrium constant) estimated were 1.95 mg/g and 0.34 mg/mL, respectively. Purification tests directly from unclarified feedstock showed a recovery of 59.2% of the target protein and a purification factor of 6.0. The addition of the non-ionic surfactant Triton X-114 to the washing step of EBA led to high levels (> 99%) of LPS removal initially present in the samples for all conditions tested. The mathematical model obtained to describe the 503 antigen breakthrough curves in Streamline Chelanting resin in expanded mode showed a good fit for both parameter estimation and validation steps. The validated model was used to optimize the efficiencies, achieving maximum values of the process and of the column efficiencies of 89.2% and 75.9%, respectively. Therefore, EBA is an efficient alternative for the recovery of the target protein and removal of endotoxin from an E. coli unclarified feedstock in just one step.

O ensino de arte pós-moderno na arte de Daniel Francisco de Souza

This thesis presents a research that links cultural history and visual culture in a sociobiographical approach. It gives a “political treatment” to the educational experience in the transition of art teaching from the modern to the postmodern. By taking into account my experiences as an educator and the poetic practice in Daniel Francisco de Souza’s visual art, I propose a dialogue with his art and a series of visual narratives this artist/student produced at the time of his education and recently. Such visual narratives were taken as research source and research subject. They were created in a rural setting in dialogue with formal art teaching in two phases: 1992–6, when Daniel Fran cisco attended elementary school in the rural area of Uberlândia, MG; and 2008–10, when he attended Visual Arts graduation at Federal University of Uberlândia city. I analyze historical processes related to art and teaching, from the early sixteenth century to the present times, to realize residues in students’ poetic experiences. I relate Brazilian educational public policies with experi- ences in that rural school. I try to show the extent to which our educational practices triggered experiences — from ones common to intense ones — and promoted forms of “emancipation-knowledge” or “regulation-knowledge” and how the “selective tradition” was and how art predetermined history images gave way to everyday visual references, pointing to the “broad field” of visual culture. I make an effort to show Daniel Francisco’s work as an adult by tak- ing it according to different approaches. In a poetic reading, first, I emphasixe the material and the symbolic in his art. In a second look, I approach his work through the intertwining experiences of three characters from different times and places that participated in the making of his art: the artist farmer, the artist teacher and the teacher researcher. I assume the existence of a mutual cultural incompleteness in these three characters; which means that parts of their “structures of feeling” built on the interrelationship among them are part of the artist’ work as a historical content decanted. Thirdly, I demonstrate how the artist sees his place as a key re ference to his poetic creation. His work does not reflect the rural bucolic as something untouched. In showing the difficulty in distinguishing the archaic residual, I identify emerging issues in his work. I conclude that the artist — Daniel Francisco — and the researcher — myself — present maverick features: both are scavengers; their productions approach the working with scraps in art and in the academy; even momentarily, they live in exile in the warmth of the borders or the edges, from where one sees the center clearly. In these spaces, when certain structures and normative codes enter into coalition, they fragment pre-established strategies and stimulate the creation of survival tactics.

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene strata of the Pamplona Basin and surrounding areas (Navarre, western Pyrenees)

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene (Bartonian and Priabonian) sedimentary succession of the Pamplona Basin are described. This succession was accumulated in the western part of the South Pyrenean peripheral foreland basin and extends from deep-marine turbiditic (Ezkaba Sandstone Formation) to deltaic (Pamplona Marl, Ardanatz Sandstone and Ilundain Marl formations) and marginal marine deposits (Gendulain Formation). The micropalaeontological content is high. It is dominated by foraminifera, and common ostracods and other microfossils are also present. The fossil ichnoasssemblages include at least 23 ichnogenera and 28 ichnospecies indicative of Nereites, Cruziana, Glossifungites and ?Scoyenia-Mermia ichnofacies. Body macrofossils of 78 taxa corresponding to macroforaminifera, sponges, corals, bryozoans, brachiopods, annelids, molluscs, arthropods, echinoderms and vertebrates have been identified. Both the number of ichnotaxa and of species (e. g. bryozoans, molluscs and condrichthyans) may be considerably higher. Body fossil assemblages are comparable to those from the Eocene of the Nord Pyrenean area (Basque Coast), and also to those from the Eocene of the west-central and eastern part of South Pyrenean area (Aragon and Catalonia). At the European scale, the molluscs assemblages seem endemic from the Pyrenean area, although several Tethyan (Italy and Alps) and Northern elements (Paris basin and Normandy) have been recorded. Palaeontological data of studied sedimentary units fit well with the shallowing process that throughout the middle and late Eocene occurs in the area, according to the sedimentological and stratigraphical data.

Imágenes recalcitrantes: el caso de la proclamación de Juan Carlos I como rey de España (22 de noviembre de 1975)

En el flujo informativo, algunas imágenes, que calificamos aquí de “recalcitrantes” se resisten a perecer y sobreviven a su contexto de producción. El presente estudio analiza cómo una de ellas, la secuencia televisiva de la proclamación de Juan Carlos como sucesor de Francisco Franco a la jefatura del estado, el 22 de noviembre de 1975, ha sobrevivido, metamorfoseándose hasta hoy en día, de pantallas en pantallas, a través de una muestra representativa de algunas de sus reelaboraciones más significativas.

Francisco Franco, articulista de incógnito (1945–1960)

Se trata de un análisis pormenorizado de los artículos publicados por Francisco Franco en el periódico Arriba entre los años 1945 y 1960 bajo los seudónimos de Jakim Boor, Hispanicus y Macaulay. Se lleva a cabo su disección en dos grandes categorías: enemigos del Régimen y política, economía y sociedad. Para ello, se toma como ejemplo el propio artículo de Hispanicus titulado “Lo político, lo económico y lo social”. En la primera de las dos grandes categorías se agrupan todos aquellos elementos abstractos -instituciones o ideologías- que Franco consideraba perjudiciales para la España que él gobernaba o que históricamente habían sido hostiles a este país; en la segunda se recogen el comentario sobre política en términos actuales o generales, las situaciones económicas y sociales así como los numerosos fragmentos de Historia de España que el dictador gustaba de incluir en sus colaboraciones periodísticas.

Source Provenance of Pre-Historic Granitic Grindstones: The Case Study of the Cogotas I Archaeological Site of Arroyo Mucientes/San Lázaro (Castronuño, Valladolid) and a Proposal on the General Methodological Flow Process

The occurrence of hand grindstones at the Cogotas I archaeological sites is considered to be a common feature. Given that a distant-provenance raw material is frequently involved, determination of its source is a basic factor in the search for a better understanding of resource management and for any Political Economy approach. To progress in these directions an overall study should be planned, using selected grindstones with a view to covering diverse sub-zones of the Cogotas I dispersal area, especially because of its considerable distance from the granite basement source. Such a study may today includes diverse analytical procedures combining successive geographic, petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical criteria. To check the plausibility of the proposed methodology, a preliminary test has been carried out on two granite grindstones, obtained at the archaeological excavation at the Castronuño (Valladolid) Cogotian site, which is fifty km away from an inferred source area that was presumably located at Peñausende (Zamora). The result obtained validates the proposed operational process, yielding a generalizable knowledge to other similar situations.

Una nota a Tucídides I 22, 2

Este trabajo estudia las distintas interpretaciones del inicio del capítulo 22 centrándose en la segunda frase. Se propone una nueva interpretación basada en la construcción sintáctica del participio πυνθανόμενος.

Biografía inédita de Francisco de Quintana: recuperación de un novelista olvidado

Este artículo pretende desvelar datos inéditos de Francisco de Quintana, escritor del seiscientos escasamente estudiado por la crítica literaria hasta nuestros días. La investigación, a partir tanto de fuentes primarias como de su obra literaria, ha supuesto el hallazgo de información sustancial sobre este íntimo amigo de Lope de Vega. Además de aportar nuevos testimonios biográficos, esta comunicación interrelaciona acontecimientos fundamentales de su vida con su obra literaria.

La selección de textos literarios en el contexto del español como segunda lengua. Investigación cualitativa con adolescentes inmigrantes

En este artículo se proponen claves de selección de textos literarios para adolescentes inmigrantes de niveles A2 de competencia comunicativa en español. El diseño de la investigación se configura a partir del paradigma cualitativo/interpretativo de corte etnográfico y de la investigación-acción en el escenario de cuatro aulas de español. El análisis de una muestra de treinta jóvenes inmigrantes ante el corpus leído durante el trabajo de campo, aporta seis variables menos centradas en la proyección explícita de la migración, y más sujetas al concepto de distancia como elemento transcendente de la lectura literaria.

Francesco Grimaldi, un mercader-banquero genovés entre Granada, la corte e Inglaterra (siglos xv-xvi)

Los estudios sobre la comunidad genovesa del Reino de Granada suelen centrarse en las actividades desarrolladas en el territorio y rara vez en la reconstrucción de trayectorias individuales, circunstancia determinada por el recurso casi exclusivo a los protocolos notariales. El caso de Francesco Grimaldi es singular por muchas razones: su localización en fuentes de naturaleza muy variada –protocolos notariales de Granada y Málaga, Registro del Sello de Simancas y Granada, Chancillería de Valladolid, el epistolario del comendador Fuensalida y el archivo privado de la familia Grimaldo de Cáceres– ha permitido seguir su presencia y sus actividades en Granada, la Corte e Inglaterra –donde desempeñó un papel fundamental en el matrimonio entre Catalina de Aragón y Enrique VIII–. Así se conoce su interés por los préstamos y el negocio de la renta, las circunstancias de su matrimonio con Francisca de Cáceres y la adquisición de un importante patrimonio en el reino granadino.

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

AIMS: Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

CONCLUSION: In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.

Implementación de la gestión por procesos en la Escuela Militar de Chorrillos Coronel Francisco Bolognesi (EMCH CFB)

El presente trabajo de investigación titulado “Implementación de la Gestión por Procesos en la Escuela Militar de Chorrillos Coronel Francisco Bolognesi (EMCH CFB)” ha sido elaborado con la finalidad de mejorar la calidad de los productos que ofrece esta escuela al Ejército del Perú y a la sociedad, de manera que se logre incrementar en forma significativa la satisfacción de éstos respecto a la calidad de dichos productos recibidos, como son: i) oficiales del grado de subteniente o alférez, profesionales en Ciencias Militares; ii) servicios de consultoría en temas de seguridad y defensa; iii) publicaciones científicas relacionadas con temas de seguridad, defensa y desarrollo nacional; iv) apoyo a poblaciones vulnerables en temas de capacitación y mejora de su bienestar y v) servicios de defensa interna del territorio nacional. Siendo imperativa la mejora de la calidad de los bienes y servicios que ofrece la EMCH CFB y además mandatorio por la ley, es necesario implementar en ella la gestión por procesos y rediseñarla proponiendo una estructura híbrida donde predomine la estructura horizontal (basada en procesos) por encima de la funcional, y que esté enfocada en torno a los procesos centrales transfuncionales en lugar de tareas y funciones.

Reflexiones en el tiempo sobre el tiempo humano : tomo I : (1990 – 1996)

En este documento se exponen una serie de reflexiones tituladas: “REFLEXIONES EN EL TIEMPO SOBRE EL TIEMPO HUMANO”, que son un intento de situarse desde la óptica de la objetividad y de la verdad, y como dijo en cierta ocasión Ignacio Ellacuría, dicha objetividad no hay que buscarla desde la óptica de los enriquecidos sino desde la óptica de los empobrecidos que constituyen la inmensa mayoría no sólo en El Salvador, sino en el mundo entero. Estas reflexiones, están agrupadas en cuatro tomos y organizadas no por temáticas sino cronológicamente, es decir, en el orden temporal en que fueron escritas, por alguien que se concibe como un viajero solitario cuyo punto de llegada será su punto de partida tanto en términos físicos, religiosos y sociales. Este viajero solitario, opta por intentar poner al descubierto la esencia de los procesos económicos, políticos, sociales, culturales y educativos, que con frecuencia se encubren ante la mirada atónita de la inmensa mayoría.