Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Pulsatile Blood Flow Simulations in Computed Tomography(CT) Scan-Based and Idealized Geometries of Human Aorta

Blood flow in human aorta is an unsteady and complex phenomenon. The complex patterns are related to the geometrical features like curvature, bends, and branching and pulsatile nature of flow from left ventricle of heart. The aim of this work was to understand the effect of aorta geometry on the flow dynamics. To achieve this, 3D realistic and idealized models of descending aorta were reconstructed from Computed Tomography (CT) images of a female patient. The geometries were reconstructed using medical image processing code. The blood flow in aorta was assumed to be laminar and incompressible and the blood was assumed to be Newtonian fluid. A time dependent pulsatile and parabolic boundary condition was deployed at inlet. Steady and unsteady blood flow simulations were performed in real and idealized geometries of descending aorta using a Finite Volume Method (FVM) code. Analysis of Wall Shear Stress (WSS) distribution, pressure distribution, and axial velocity profiles were carried out in both geometries at steady and unsteady state conditions. The results obtained in thesis work reveal that the idealization of geometry underestimates the values of WSS especially near the region with sudden change of diameter. However, the resultant pressure and velocity in idealized geometry are close to those in real geometry

Simulating Fluid Flow in a Compressed Valve

The objective of the work is to study fluid flow behavior through a pinch valve and to estimate the flow coefficient (KV ) at different opening positions of the valve. The flow inside a compressed valve is more complex than in a straight pipe, and it is one of main topics of interest for engineers in process industry. In the present work, we have numerically simulated compressed valve flow at different opening positions. In order to simulate the flow through pinch valve, several models of the elastomeric valve tube (pinch valve tube) at different opening positions were constructed in 2D-axisymmetric and 3D geometries. The numerical simulations were performed with the CFD packages; ANSYS FLUENT and ANSYS CFX by using parallel computing. The distributions of static pressure, velocity and turbulent kinetic energy have been studied at different opening positions of the valve in both 2D-axisymmetric and 3D experiments. The flow coefficient (KV ) values have been measured at different valve openings and are compared between 2D-axisymmetric and 3D simulation results.

Accounting Beta Measuring Systematic Risk: Empirical Evidence from the Finnish Markets

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether accounting-based variables can be used to measure systematic risk of a company using Finnish data. When the fundamental sources of systematic risk are known, companies are able to manage these risks and increase company value. Accounting beta was formed based on OLS regression models. Theoretical background for the study was based on the findings of studies according to which business risk, financial risk, operating risk and growth risk can be theoretically regarded as determinants of the systematic risk. The results reveal that accounting variables describe systematic risk of a company. The accounting beta is found to be particularly sensitive to the changes in the risk components. The investigation is confidential until 15.10.2012.

Financier’s credit risk: A Performance-Based Classification Model

The purpose of this study is to view credit risk from the financier’s point of view in a theoretical framework. Results and aspects of the previous studies regarding measuring credit risk with accounting based scoring models are also examined. The theoretical framework and previous studies are then used to support the empirical analysis which aims to develop a credit risk measure for a bank’s internal use or a risk management tool for a company to indicate its credit risk to the financier. The study covers a sample of Finnish companies from 12 different industries and four different company categories and employs their accounting information from 2004 to 2008. The empirical analysis consists of six stage methodology process which uses measures of profitability, liquidity, capital structure and cash flow to determine financier’s credit risk, define five significant risk classes and produce risk classification model. The study is confidential until 15.10.2012.

Asiakasräätälöidyn tuotteen vaihtoprojektin kehittäminen palvelutuotannossa

Työ on tehty Lindström Oy:lle tavoitteena löytää tuotevaihtoprojektien kulminaatiopisteet, joissa prosessin sujuvuutta, tiedonhallintaa ja toimintamalleja voitaisiin kehittää. Tavoitteena oli hyödyntää teoriatiedon ja empiirisen tutkimuksen tietämys toimintamalleiksi asiakasräätälöityjen tuotteiden vaihtoprojektissa. Tarkoituksena on ollut huomioida elinkaarihallinta osana tuotekehitystä sekä tuotetiedon hallinta ja sen ohjaava vaikutus projektin eri vaiheissa. Asiakaslähtöisyys ja elinkaarihallinta sekä tietojohtaminen ovat olleet tutkimuksen näkökulmina. Työssä yhdistettiin teorian pohjustama tuotetieto, tuotekehityksen prosessit sekä projektihallinta empiirisen tutkimustuloksen luomiksi kehittämisehdotuksiksi. Tuotevaihtoprojekteihin luotiin kaksi toimintamallia, joissa hyödynnetään tiedon kerääntymistä tietojärjestelmiin. Tuloksissa elinkaarihallinta ehdotetaan linkitettäväksi osaksi tuotekehitysprosessia, jolloin asiakkaan saama arvon lisäys on suoraan taloudellisestikin mitattavissa. Lisäksi työn tuloksena ehdotetaan, että tuotekehityksen systemaattista tiedon keruuta alkuvaiheessaan kehitetään sekä asiakkaan tarvetiedon tarkempaa ja määritellympää tiedon kirjaamista lisätään, tietojärjestelmien suomin mahdollisuuksin.

Seisontamaksuprosessin kehittäminen rautatielogistiikassa

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli kehittää seisontamaksuprosessia löytämällä keinot tehostaa informaation kulkua prosessin eri osapuolten välillä, parantaa prosessin läpimenoaikaa, yhtenäistää toimintakäytäntöjä, sekä vähentää virheellisten seisontamaksulaskujen lähettämistä asiakkaille. Tietoa kerättiin haastatteluin, sähköpostikeskusteluja tutkimalla, sekä analysoimalla numeerista aineistoa seisontamaksuista. Työn teoriaosassa käsiteltiin prosesseja ja niiden kehittämistä yleisesti, muutoksen hallintaa, sekä prosessien kehittämisessä apuna toimivia valmiita kehittämismalleja. Työn empiirisessä osassa kuvattiin seisontamaksuprosessi ja löydettiin siitä suurimmat ongelmakohdat. Tiedonkulku prosessin eri osapuolten välillä osoittautui suurimmaksi ongelmien aiheuttajaksi. Ongelmiin kehitettiin ratkaisut, joiden pohjalta luotiin optimaalinen toimintamalli seisontamaksuprosessista. Lisäksi prosessin tulevan toiminnan seuraamiseksi ehdotettiin erilaisia mittareita. Kehitettyjen ratkaisujen katsottiin täyttäneen kaikki yrityksen asettamat tavoitteet, mutta ratkaisujen tarkemmat vaikutukset prosessin toimintaan näkyvät kuitenkin vasta niiden käyttöönoton jälkeen.

Future revenue models: Transformation from textbooks to digital solutions in the educational publishing industry, Case Sanoma Learning

This study was conducted in order to learn how companies’ revenue models will be transformed due to the digitalisation of its products and processes. Because there is still only a limited number of researches focusing solely on revenue models, and particularly on the revenue model change caused by the changes at the business environment, the topic was initially approached through the business model concept, which organises the different value creating operations and resources at a company in order to create profitable revenue streams. This was used as the base for constructing the theoretical framework for this study, used to collect and analyse the information. The empirical section is based on a qualitative study approach and multiple-case analysis of companies operating in learning materials publishing industry. Their operations are compared with companies operating in other industries, which have undergone comparable transformation, in order to recognise either similarities or contrasts between the cases. The sources of evidence are a literature review to find the essential dimensions researched earlier, and interviews 29 of managers and executives at 17 organisations representing six industries. Based onto the earlier literature and the empirical findings of this study, the change of the revenue model is linked with the change of the other dimen-sions of the business model. When one dimension will be altered, as well the other should be adjusted accordingly. At the case companies the transformation is observed as the utilisation of several revenue models simultaneously and the revenue creation processes becoming more complex.

Application of Computational Fluid Dynamics in Modeling Blood Flow in Human Thoracic Aorta

The aim of this study was to simulate blood flow in thoracic human aorta and understand the role of flow dynamics in the initialization and localization of atherosclerotic plaque in human thoracic aorta. The blood flow dynamics in idealized and realistic models of human thoracic aorta were numerically simulated in three idealized and two realistic thoracic aorta models. The idealized models of thoracic aorta were reconstructed with measurements available from literature, and the realistic models of thoracic aorta were constructed by image processing Computed Tomographic (CT) images. The CT images were made available by South Karelia Central Hospital in Lappeenranta. The reconstruction of thoracic aorta consisted of operations, such as contrast adjustment, image segmentations, and 3D surface rendering. Additional design operations were performed to make the aorta model compatible for the numerical method based computer code. The image processing and design operations were performed with specialized medical image processing software. Pulsatile pressure and velocity boundary conditions were deployed as inlet boundary conditions. The blood flow was assumed homogeneous and incompressible. The blood was assumed to be a Newtonian fluid. The simulations with idealized models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Element Method based computer code, while the simulations with realistic models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Volume Method based computer code. Simulations were carried out for four cardiac cycles. The distribution of flow, pressure and Wall Shear Stress (WSS) observed during the fourth cardiac cycle were extensively analyzed. The aim of carrying out the simulations with idealized model was to get an estimate of flow dynamics in a realistic aorta model. The motive behind the choice of three aorta models with distinct features was to understand the dependence of flow dynamics on aorta anatomy. Highly disturbed and nonuniform distribution of velocity and WSS was observed in aortic arch, near brachiocephalic, left common artery, and left subclavian artery. On the other hand, the WSS profiles at the roots of branches show significant differences with geometry variation of aorta and branches. The comparison of instantaneous WSS profiles revealed that the model with straight branching arteries had relatively lower WSS compared to that in the aorta model with curved branches. In addition to this, significant differences were observed in the spatial and temporal profiles of WSS, flow, and pressure. The study with idealized model was extended to study blood flow in thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. One of the idealized aorta models was modified along with the boundary conditions to mimic the thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. The results of simulations with realistic models extracted from CT scans demonstrated more realistic flow dynamics than that in the idealized models. During systole, the velocity in ascending aorta was skewed towards the outer wall of aortic arch. The flow develops secondary flow patterns as it moves downstream towards aortic arch. Unlike idealized models, the distribution of flow was nonplanar and heavily guided by the artery anatomy. Flow cavitation was observed in the aorta model which was imaged giving longer branches. This could not be properly observed in the model with imaging containing a shorter length for aortic branches. The flow circulation was also observed in the inner wall of the aortic arch. However, during the diastole, the flow profiles were almost flat and regular due the acceleration of flow at the inlet. The flow profiles were weakly turbulent during the flow reversal. The complex flow patterns caused a non-uniform distribution of WSS. High WSS was distributed at the junction of branches and aortic arch. Low WSS was distributed at the proximal part of the junction, while intermedium WSS was distributed in the distal part of the junction. The pulsatile nature of the inflow caused oscillating WSS at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Based on the WSS distribution in the realistic model, one of the aorta models was altered to induce artificial atherosclerotic plaque at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Atherosclerotic plaque causing 50% blockage of lumen was introduced in brachiocephalic artery, common carotid artery, left subclavian artery, and aortic arch. The aim of this part of the study was first to study the effect of stenosis on flow and WSS distribution, understand the effect of shape of atherosclerotic plaque on flow and WSS distribution, and finally to investigate the effect of lumen blockage severity on flow and WSS distributions. The results revealed that the distribution of WSS is significantly affected by plaque with mere 50% stenosis. The asymmetric shape of stenosis causes higher WSS in branching arteries than in the cases with symmetric plaque. The flow dynamics within thoracic aorta models has been extensively studied and reported here. The effects of pressure and arterial anatomy on the flow dynamic were investigated. The distribution of complex flow and WSS is correlated with the localization of atherosclerosis. With the available results we can conclude that the thoracic aorta, with complex anatomy is the most vulnerable artery for the localization and development of atherosclerosis. The flow dynamics and arterial anatomy play a role in the localization of atherosclerosis. The patient specific image based models can be used to diagnose the locations in the aorta vulnerable to the development of arterial diseases such as atherosclerosis.

Powder flow criteria for design of vertical silo walls

For design of vertical silos walls involving the storage of bulk solids to be safe and reliable, it is important knowing the largest possible number of variables such as: flow properties, silo geometry and pattern of flow desired. In order to validate the theories of flow prediction and design of conical hoppers, the flow properties of two bulk solids were determined, the theories of Jenike's flowability and Enstad and Walker for hopper design were analyzed and the results were compared with those experimentally obtained in a reduced model of a semicircular-section silo. Results show that Enstad theory for the hopper design is adequate to occur mass flow inside the silo, and for the sizing of the discharge outlet, the Walker's theory was closer to the appropriate than Jenike's theory, which was higher around 100% than the experimental hopper outlet.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

Social ventures : the development of the theory of sustainable contributive advantage and initial empirical tests

This thesis attempts to fill gaps in both a theoretical basis and an operational and strategic understanding in the areas of social ventures, social entrepreneurship and nonprofit business models. This study also attempts to bridge the gap in strategic and economic theory between social and commercial ventures. More specifically, this thesis explores sustainable competitive advantage from a resource-based theory perspective and explores how it may be applied to the nonmarket situation of nonprofit organizations and social ventures. It is proposed that a social value-orientation of sustainable competitive advantage, called sustainable contributive advantage, provides a more realistic depiction of what is necessary in order for a social venture to perform better than its competitors over time. In addition to providing this realistic depiction, this research provides a substantial theoretical contribution in the area of economics, social ventures, and strategy research, specifically in regards to resource-based theory. The proposed model for sustainable contributive advantage uses resource-based theory and competitive advantage in order to be applicable to social ventures. This model proposes an explanation of a social venture’s ability to demonstrate consistently superior performance. In order to determine whether sustainable competitive advantage is in fact, appropriate to apply to both social and economic environments, quantitative analyses are conducted on a large sample of nonprofit organizations in a single industry and then compared to similar quantitative analyses conducted on commercial ventures. In comparing the trends and strategies between the two types of entities from a quantitative perspective, propositions are developed regarding a social venture’s resource utilization strategies and their possible impact on performance. Evidence is found to support the necessity of adjusting existing models in resource-based theory in order to apply them to social ventures. Additionally supported is the proposed theory of sustainable contributive advantage. The thesis concludes with recommendations for practitioners, researchers and policy makers as well as suggestions for future research paths.

Scheduling of guarded command based models

Formal methods provide a means of reasoning about computer programs in order to prove correctness criteria. One subtype of formal methods is based on the weakest precondition predicate transformer semantics and uses guarded commands as the basic modelling construct. Examples of such formalisms are Action Systems and Event-B. Guarded commands can intuitively be understood as actions that may be triggered when an associated guard condition holds. Guarded commands whose guards hold are nondeterministically chosen for execution, but no further control flow is present by default. Such a modelling approach is convenient for proving correctness, and the Refinement Calculus allows for a stepwise development method. It also has a parallel interpretation facilitating development of concurrent software, and it is suitable for describing event-driven scenarios. However, for many application areas, the execution paradigm traditionally used comprises more explicit control flow, which constitutes an obstacle for using the above mentioned formal methods. In this thesis, we study how guarded command based modelling approaches can be conveniently and efficiently scheduled in different scenarios. We first focus on the modelling of trust for transactions in a social networking setting. Due to the event-based nature of the scenario, the use of guarded commands turns out to be relatively straightforward. We continue by studying modelling of concurrent software, with particular focus on compute-intensive scenarios. We go from theoretical considerations to the feasibility of implementation by evaluating the performance and scalability of executing a case study model in parallel using automatic scheduling performed by a dedicated scheduler. Finally, we propose a more explicit and non-centralised approach in which the flow of each task is controlled by a schedule of its own. The schedules are expressed in a dedicated scheduling language, and patterns assist the developer in proving correctness of the scheduled model with respect to the original one.

Model for subchannel friction factors and flow redistribution in wire-wrapped rod bundles

The fuel element of LMFBR consists of a bundle of rods wrapped with an helical wire as spacer, surrounded by an hexagonal duct. In the present work, a semi-empirical model is developed to calculate bundle average and subchannel based friction factors and flow redistribution. The obtained results were compared to experimental data and they were considered satisfactory for wide range of geometrical parameters.