Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Can IT Security be improved with better IT Leadership in the 21st Century University?

Organizations generally are not responding effectively to rising IT security threats because people issues receive inadequate attention. The stark example of IT security is just the latest strategic IT priority demonstrating deficient IT leadership attention to the social dimension of IT. Universities in particular, with their devolved people organization, diverse adoption of IT, and split central/local federated approach to governance and leadership of IT, demand higher levels of interpersonal sophistication and strategic engagement from their IT leaders. An idealized model for IT leaders for the 21st century university is proposed to be developed as a framework for further investigation. The testing of this model in an action research study is proposed.

The science of assessment : identifying and predicting environmental impacts

The historical challenge of environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been to predict project-based impacts accurately. Both EIA legislation and the practice of EIA have evolved over the last three decades in Canada, and the development of the discipline and science of environmental assessment has improved how we apply environmental assessment to complex projects. The practice of environmental assessment integrates the social and natural sciences and relies on an eclectic knowledge base from a wide range of sources. EIA methods and tools provide a means to structure and integrate knowledge in order to evaluate and predict environmental impacts.----- This Chapter will provide a brief overview of how impacts are identified and predicted. How do we determine what aspect of the natural and social environment will be affected when a mine is excavated? How does the practitioner determine the range of potential impacts, assess whether they are significant, and predict the consequences? There are no standard answers to these questions, but there are established methods to provide a foundation for scoping and predicting the potential impacts of a project.----- Of course, the community and publics play an important role in this process, and this will be discussed in subsequent chapters. In the first part of this chapter, we will deal with impact identification, which involves appplying scoping to critical issues and determining impact significance, baseline ecosystem evaluation techniques, and how to communicate environmental impacts. In the second part of the chapter, we discuss the prediction of impacts in relation to the complexity of the environment, ecological risk assessment, and modelling.

Particle and gaseous emissions from commercial aircraft at each stage of the landing and takeoff cycle

A novel technique was used to measure emission factors for commonly used commercial aircraft including a range of Boeing and Airbus airframes under real world conditions. Engine exhaust emission factors for particles in terms of particle number and mass (PM2.5), along with those for CO2, and NOx were measured for over 280 individual aircraft during the various modes of landing/takeoff (LTO) cycle. Results from this study show that particle number, and NOx emission factors are dependant on aircraft engine thrust level. Minimum and maximum emissions factors for particle number, PM2.5, and NOx emissions were found to be in the range of 4.16×1015-5.42×1016 kg-1, 0.03-0.72 g.kg-1, and 3.25-37.94 g.kg-1 respectively for all measured airframes and LTO cycle modes. Number size distributions of emitted particles for the naturally diluted aircraft plumes in each mode of LTO cycle showed that particles were predominantly in the range of 4 to 100 nm in diameter in all cases. In general, size distributions exhibit similar modality during all phases of the LTO cycle. A very distinct nucleation mode was observed in all particle size distributions, except for taxiing and landing of A320 aircraft. Accumulation modes were also observed in all particle size distributions. Analysis of aircraft engine emissions during LTO cycle showed that aircraft thrust level is considerably higher during taxiing than idling suggesting that International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards need to be modified as the thrust levels for taxi and idle are considered to be the same (7% of total thrust) [1].

Making sense of an everyday science text : linguistic, visual and spatial design

In this article, we take a close look at the literacy demands of one task from the ‘Marvellous Micro-organisms Stage 3 Life and Living’ Primary Connections unit (Australian Academy of Science, 2005). One lesson from the unit, ‘Exploring Bread’, (pp 4-8) asks students to ‘use bread labels to locate ingredient information and synthesise understanding of bread ingredients’. We draw upon a framework offered by the New London Group (2000), that of linguistic, visual and spatial design, to consider in more detail three bread wrappers and from there the complex literacies that students need to interrelate to undertake the required task. Our findings are that although bread wrappers are an example of an everyday science text, their linguistic, visual and spatial designs and their interrelationship are not trivial. We conclude by reinforcing the need for teachers of science to also consider how the complex design elements of everyday science texts and their interrelated literacies are made visible through instructional practice.

Digital scholarship and pedagogy, the next step : cultural science.

There are two aspects to the problem of digital scholarship and pedagogy. One is to do with scholarship; the other with pedagogy. In scholarship, the association of knowledge with its printed form remains dominant. In pedagogy, the desire to abandon print for ‘new’ media is urgent, at least in some parts of the academy. Film and media studies are thus at the intersection of opposing forces – pulling the field ‘back’ to print and ‘forward’ to digital media. These tensions may be especially painful in a field whose own object of study is another form of communication, neither print nor digital but broadcast. Although print has been overtaken in the popular marketplace by audio-visual forms, this was never achieved in the domain of scholarship. Even when it is digitally distributed, the output of research is still a ‘paper.’ But meanwhile, in the realm of teaching, production- and practice-based pedagogy has become firmly established. Nevertheless a disjunction remains, between high-end scholarship in research universities and vocational training in teaching institutions; but neither is well equipped to deal with the digital challenge.