Accounting Beta Measuring Systematic Risk: Empirical Evidence from the Finnish Markets

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether accounting-based variables can be used to measure systematic risk of a company using Finnish data. When the fundamental sources of systematic risk are known, companies are able to manage these risks and increase company value. Accounting beta was formed based on OLS regression models. Theoretical background for the study was based on the findings of studies according to which business risk, financial risk, operating risk and growth risk can be theoretically regarded as determinants of the systematic risk. The results reveal that accounting variables describe systematic risk of a company. The accounting beta is found to be particularly sensitive to the changes in the risk components. The investigation is confidential until 15.10.2012.

CRM system implementation for managing customer relationships in business-to-business markets

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää, kuinka CRM-järjestelmä otetaan käyttöön asiakkuuksienhallinnan tueksi yritysten välisillä markkinoilla. Tutkielma keskittyy erityisesti käyttöönoton varhaisiin vaiheisiin selvittämällä, mikä on järjestelmien rooli asiakkuudenhallinnassa ja miten ne tukevat erilaisia käyttäjätasoja, jotka työssä jaettiin strategiseksi, operatiiviseksi ja analyyttiseksi tasoksi. Lisäksi työ esittelee käyttöönottoon yleisimmin liittyviä sudenkuoppia. Tutkielma on laadullinen tutkimus ja siinä on kuvattu CRM-järjestelmän käyttöönottoon liittyviä kysymyksiä yritysten välisillä markkinoilla toimivan caseyrityksen näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että CRM-järjestelmän onnistunut käyttöönotto vaatii mahdollisimman yksinkertaista ja helppokäyttöistä järjestelmää. Käyttöönoton ei myöskään tulisi vaatia monimutkaista koulutusta, vaikkakin koulutusten tärkeys tunnistettiin. Tutkimus osoitti, että vaikka tämänhetkiset CRM-järjestelmät keskittyvät enemmän yksityiskohtaisten asiakasanalyysien tekoon, järjestelmä voi myös palvella asiakkaisiin liittyvän tiedon yhteisenä tallennus- ja jakamispaikkana. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa todettiin, että useimmiten potentiaaliset sudenkuopat olivat luonteeltaan hyvin käytännönläheisiä, kuten järjestelmän käyttämättömyys sekä huono motivointi ja sitouttaminen.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Developing markets of energy biomass – local and global perspectives

The thesis explores global and national-level issues related to the development of markets for biomass for energy. The thesis consists of five separate papers and provides insights on selected issues. The aim of Paper I was to identify methodological and statistical challenges in assessing international solid and liquid biofuels trade and provide an overview of the Finnish situation with respect to the status of international solid and liquid biofuels trade. We found that, for the Finnish case, it is possible to qualify direct and indirect trade volumes of biofuels. The study showed that indirect trade of biofuels has a highly significant role in Finland and may be a significant sector also in global biofuels trade. The purpose of Paper II was to provide a quantified insight into Finnish prospects for meeting the national 2020 renewable energy targets and concurrently becoming a largescale producer of forest-biomass-based second-generation biofuels for feeding increasing demand in European markets. We found that Finland has good opportunities to realise a scenario to meet 2020 renewable energy targets and for large-scale production of wood-based biofuels. The potential net export of transport biofuels from Finland in 2020 would correspond to 2–3% of European demand. Paper III summarises the global status of international solid and liquid biofuels trade as illuminated by several separate sources. International trade of biofuels was estimated at nearly 1 EJ for 2006. Indirect trade of biofuels through trading of industrial roundwood and material by-products comprises the largest proportion of the trading, with a share of about two thirds. The purpose of Paper IV was to outline a comprehensive picture of the coverage of various certification schemes and sustainability principles relating to the entire value-added chain of biomass and bioenergy. Regardless of the intensive work that has been done in the field of sustainability schemes and principles concerning use of biomass for energy, weaknesses still exist. The objective of Paper V was to clarify the alternative scenarios for the international biomass market until 2020 and identify the underlying steps needed toward a wellfunctioning and sustainable market for biomass for energy purposes. An overall conclusion drawn from this analysis concerns the enormous opportunities related to the utilisation of biomass for energy in the coming decades.

Added Value of Combining Value and Momentum Indicators in the Swiss Stock Market

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the added value of combining value and momentum indicators in the Swiss stock exchange. Value indicators employed are P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/CF, P/B ja P/S. Momentum indicators examined are 52-week high, acceleration rate, 12-month past return and 6-month past return. The thesis examines whether the composite value measures based on the above mentioned ratios can add value and whether the inclusion of momentum can further improve the risk return profile of the value portfolios. The data is gathered from the Swiss equity market during the sample period from May 2001 to May 2011. Previous studies have shown that composite value measures can somewhat add value to the value portfolio strategy. Similarly, recent academic literature have found evidence that momentum works well as a timing indicator for time to entry to value stocks. This study indicates that the added value of composite value measures exists. It also shows that momentum combined to acceleration rate can significantly improve the risk adjusted performance of value-only portfolios.

Ylioptimismin Vaikutus Listautumisantien Alihinnoitteluun Suomen Markkinoilla

Osakeyhtiöiden pörssiin listautumisia tutkittaessa on yleisesti huomattu, että ensimmäisen listautumispäivän aikana kyseisten yhtiöiden osakkeiden tarjoamat tuotot ovat poikkeuksellisen suuria. Kyseinen ilmiö tunnetaan yleisesti listautumisannin alihinnoittelun anomaliana. Listautumisista keskusteltaessa teorioita on luotu kolmesta eri anomaliasta; (i) uusien osakkeiden alihinnoittelu, (ii) alihinnoittelun syklisyys (Ritter, 1984) ja (iii) alihinnoitellun listautumisannin pitkän aikavälin huono menestyminen (Ritter, 1991). Useat tutkimukset (mm. Beatty ja Ritter, 1986) osoittavat, että ainoastaan maltillinen alihinnoittelu on edukasta listautuvalle yritykselle, mutta ennen kaikkea annin järjestäjälle. Lisäksi mm. Shillerin (1990) tekemä kyselytutkimus, jonka mukaan suurin osa sijoittajista ei perusta listautuvaan yritykseen kohdistuvia sijoituksiaan fundamentteihin, osoittaa, että tuotot eivät ole puhtaasti seurausta ainoastaan alihinnoittelusta. Tämä tutkimus pyrkii määrittelemään aiemmin vähäisesti tutkittua markkinoiden ylioptimismin vaikutusta listautumisannin jälkeisiin ensimmäisen päivän tuottoihin (alihinnoitteluun), käyttämällä aiempien tutkimusten tuloksia ja perusteltuja päätelmiä teoriapohjan luonnissa. Luotua teoriaa testataan empiirisesti käyttäen hyödyksi Helsingin pörssiin (OMXH) listautuneista yrityksistä vuodesta 1998 vuoden 2007 loppuun kerättyä dataa. Aineiston tuottamat tulokset tukivat aiempaa kirjallisuutta. Lisäksi tutkimuksista kyettiin toteamaan, että ylioptimismilla on vaikutusta listautumisantien jälkeisissä lyhyen aikavälin tuotoissa. Tuloksiin on kuitenkin suhtauduttava kriittisesti pienen aineistokoon takia.

Performance Comparison of Behavioral Finance -based Investment Strategies in the Finnish Stock Market 1996-2010

In this thesis traditional investment strategies (value and growth) are compared to modern investment strategies (momentum, contrarian and GARP) in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Strategies are compared during time period reaching from 1996 to 2010 in the Finnish stock market. Used data includes all listed main list stocks, dividends and is adjusted in case of splits, and mergers and acquisitions. Strategies are tested using different holding periods (6, 12 and 36 months) and data is divided into tercile portfolios based on different ranking criteria. Contrarian and growth strategies are the only strategies with improved cumulative returns when longer holding periods are used. Momentum (52-week high price1) and GARP strategies based on short holding period have the best performance and contrarian and growth strategies the worst. Momentum strategies (52-week high price) along with short holding period contrarian strategies (52-week low price2) have the lowest risk. Strategies with the highest risk are both growth strategies and two momentum strategies (52-week low price). The empirical results support the efficiency of momentum, GARP and value strategies. The least efficient strategies are contrarian and growth strategies in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Most strategies outperform the market portfolio in all three measures. 1 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week highest price) 2 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week lowest price)

DIGITAL BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS IN EMERGING MARKETS – Developing Business Marketing in Russia

The core idea of this Master's Thesis was that five key characteristics – market heterogeneity, sociopolitical governance, chronic shortage of resources, unbranded competition, and inadequate infrastructure – of emerging markets are radically different from the traditional industrialized capitalist society and they will require us to rethink the core assumptions of business-to-business marketing, such as business relationships, marketing communication elements, and digitalization. In this research, Russia is considered to be an emerging market that reflects the aforementioned theoretical characteristics. The research was a qualitative case study and furthermore a collective case study. In the beginning three digital marketing professionals were interviewed to better understand digital B2B marketing. The actual research data was collected through seven structured theme interviews with representatives of the case companies operating in Russia. The selection of case companies included three business consulting companies and four industrial companies. The aim of this qualitative study was to understand and clarify how business marketing exploits digital marketing methods as a part of the chosen business marketing strategy under emerging markets’ special conditions. This objective was divided in three research questions: 1) How the chosen marketing strategy reflects in the business marketing process? 2) How digital marketing communication contributes to business marketing? 3) How are the emerging markets’ characteristics reflected in the business marketing process? The main research findings indicate that digital business-to-business marketing communications can be useful and effective. Moreover, business DMC can be defined and structured in a reasonable way. The company's prevalent marketing paradigm and the chosen marketing strategy reflect in the business marketing process, and in utilizing digital marketing communications. The assumption that emerging markets set an environment with special characteristics for business marketing was supported by the study. However, the business environmental aspects were not considerably disturbing digital B2B marketing, but making it even more reasonable to harness in Russia.

Performance characteristic of moving average trading rules in the Finnish stock market

The thesis examines the profitability of DMAC trading rules in the Finnish stock market over the 1996-2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis literature by comparing for the first time the performance of DMAC strategies based on individual stock trading portfolios to the performance of index trading strategies based on the trading on the index (OMX Helsinki 25) that consists of the same stocks. Besides, the market frictions including transaction costs and taxes are taken into account, and the results are reported from both institutional and individual investor’s perspective. Performance characteristic of DMAC rules are evaluated by simulating 19,900 different trading strategies in total for two non- overlapping 8-year sub-periods, and decomposing the full-sample-period performance of DMAC trading strategies into distinct bullish- and bearish-period performances. The results show that the best DMAC rules have predictive power on future price trends, and these rules are able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy. Although the performance of the DMAC strategies is highly dependent on the combination of moving average lengths, the best DMAC rules of the first sub-period have also performed well during the latter sub-period in the case of individual stock trading strategies. According to the results, the outperformance of DMAC trading rules over buy-and-hold strategy is mostly attributed to their superiority during the bearish periods, and particularly, during stock market crashes.

Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax - Do Transaction Costs Lower Volatility?: A Literature Review

In this literature review the theorethical framework of Financial transaction taxes and their assumed effect on market volatility is assessed. The empirical evidence from various studies is compared against the theory and a simple empirical review of the Finnish stock market is conducted. The findings implicate that financial transaction taxes can not reduce volatility and their actual effect on markets is dependend by many other factors as well. Some evidence even suggests that transactions taxes may actually raise volatility.