Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century

In this paper both documentary and natural proxy data have been used to improve the accuracy of palaeoclimatic knowledge in Finland since the 18th century. Early meteorological observations from Turku (1748-1800) were analyzed first as a potential source of climate variability. The reliability of the calculated mean temperatures was evaluated by comparing them with those of contemporary temperature records from Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Uppsala. The resulting monthly, seasonal and yearly mean temperatures from 1748 to 1800 were compared with the present day mean values (1961-1990): the comparison suggests that the winters of the period 1749-1800 were 0.8 ºC colder than today, while the summers were 0.4 ºC warmer. Over the same period, springs were 0.9 ºC and autumns 0.1 ºC colder than today. Despite their uncertainties when compared with modern meteorological data, early temperature measurements offer direct and daily information about the weather for all months of the year, in contrast with other proxies. Secondly, early meteorological observations from Tornio (1737-1749) and Ylitornio (1792-1838) were used to study the temporal behaviour of the climate-tree growth relationship during the past three centuries in northern Finland. Analyses showed that the correlations between ring widths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early (June) and late summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. According the dataset used, there was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early and modern meteorological observations. Thirdly, plant phenological data with tree-rings from south-west Finland since 1750 were examined as a palaeoclimate indicator. The information from the fragmentary, partly overlapping, partly nonsystematically biased plant phenological records of 14 different phenomena were combined into one continuous time series of phenological indices. The indices were found to be reliable indicators of the February to June temperature variations. In contrast, there was no correlation between the phenological indices and the precipitation data. Moreover, the correlations between the studied tree-rings and spring temperatures varied as a function of time and hence, their use in palaeoclimate reconstruction is questionable. The use of present tree-ring datasets for palaeoclimate purposes may become possible after the application of more sophisticated calibration methods. Climate variability since the 18th century is perhaps best seen in the fourth paper study of the multiproxy spring temperature reconstruction of south-west Finland. With the help of transfer functions, an attempt has been made to utilize both documentary and natural proxies. The reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validity between the reconstructed and observed temperatures. According to the proxies and modern meteorological observations from Turku, springs have become warmer and have featured a warming trend since around the 1850s. Over the period of 1750 to around 1850, springs featured larger multidecadal low-frequency variability, as well as a smaller range of annual temperature variations. The coldest springtimes occurred around the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Particularly warm periods occurred in the 1760s, 1790s, 1820s, 1930s, 1970s and from 1987 onwards, although in this period cold springs occurred, such as the springs of 1994 and 1996. On the basis of the available material, long-term temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (February-June).

Voiko sota olla oikeutettu? : Kirkkojen maailmanneuvoston yleiskokousten kannanotot sotaan kriisien ratkaisuna

Can war be justified? Expressions of opinions by the general assemblies of the World Council of Churches on the question of war as a method of settling conflicts. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyse the expressions of opinions recorded in the documents of the general assemblies of the WCC during the Cold War period from 1948 to 1983 on the use of war as a method of settling international and national conflicts. The main sources are the official reports of the WCC´s assemblies during the years 1948 to 1983. This study divides the discussions into three periods. The first period (1949-1968) is dominated by the pressures arising from the Second World War. Experiences of the war led the assemblies of the WCC to the conclusion that modern warfare as a method of settling conflicts should be rejected. Modern war was contrary to God´s purposes and the whole meaning of creation, said the assembly. Although the WCC rejected modern war, it left open the possibility of conflict where principles of just war may be practised. The question of war was also linked to the state and its function, which led to the need to create a politically neutral doctrine for the socio-ethical thinking of churches and of the WCC itself. The doctrine was formulated using the words "responsible society". The question of war and socio-ethical thinking were on the WCC`s agenda throughout the first period. Another issue that had an influence on the first period was the increasing role of Third World countries. This new dimension also brought new aspects to the question of war and violence. The second period (1968-1975) presented greater challenges to the WCC, especially in traditional western countries. The Third World, political activity in the socialist world and ideas of revolution were discussed. The WCC`s fourth Assembly in Uppsala was challenged by these new ideas of revolution. The old doctrine of "responsible society" was seen by many participants as unsuitable in the modern world, especially for Third World countries. The situation of a world governed by armaments, causing social and economic disruption, was felt by churches to be problematic. The peace movement gathered pace and attention. There was pressure to see armed forces as an option on the way to a new world order. The idea of a just war was challenged by that of just revolution. These ideas of revolution did not receive support from the Uppsala Assembly, but they pressured the WCC to reconsider its socio-ethical thinking. Revolution was seen as a possibility, but only when it could be peaceful. In the Nairobi Assembly the theme of just, participatory and sustainable society provided yet another viewpoint, dealing with the life of the world and its problems as a whole. The third period (1975-1983) introduced a new, alternative doctrine the "JPIC Process", justice, peace and the integrity of creation for social thinking in the WCC. The WCC no longer wanted to discuss war or poverty as separate questions, but wanted to combine all aspects of life to see the impact of an arms-governed world on humankind. Thus, during the last period, discussions focused on socio-ethical questions, where war and violence were only parts of a larger problem. Through the new JPIC Process, the WCC`s Assembly in Vancouver looked for a new world, one without violence, in all aspects of life. Despite differing opinions in socio-ethical thinking, the churches in the WCC agreed that modern warfare cannot be regarded as acceptable or just. The old idea of a "just war" still had a place, but it was not seen by all as a valid principle. As a result the WCC viewed war as a final solution to be employed when all other methods had failed. Such a war would have to secure peace and justice for all. In the discussions there was a strong political east-west divide, and, during the last two decades, a north-south divide as well. The effect of the Cold War was obvious. In the background to the theological positions were two main concepts namely the idea of God´s activity in man´s history through the so-called regiments and, the concept of the Kingdom of God on Earth.

Power and Authority. Birgitta of Sweden and her Revelations

In the High Middle Ages female saints were customarily noble virgins. Thus, as a wife and a mother of eight children, the Swedish noble lady Birgitta (1302/3 1373) was an atypical candidate for sanctity. However, in 1391 she was canonized only 18 years after her death and became a role model for many late medieval women, who were mothers and widows. The dissertation Power and Authority Birgitta of Sweden and Her Revelations investigates how Birgitta went about establishing her power and authority during the first ten years of her career as a living saint, in 1340 1349. It is written from the perspectives of gender, authority, and power. The sources consist of approximately seven hundred revelations, hagiographical texts and other medieval documents. This work concentrates on the interaction between Birgitta and her audience. During her lifetime Birgitta was already regarded as a holy woman, as a living saint. A living saint could be given no formal papal or other recognition, for one could never be certain about his or her future activities. Thus, the living saint needed an audience for whom to perform signs of sanctity. In this study particular attention is paid to situations within which the power relations between the living saint and her audience can be traced and are open to critical analysis. Situations of conflict that arose in Birgitta s life are especially fruitful for this purpose. During the Middle Ages, institutional power and authority were exclusively in the hands of secular male leaders and churchmen. In this work it is argued, however, that Birgitta used different kinds of power than men. It is evident that she exercized influence on lay people as well as on secular and clerical authorities. The second, third, and fourth chapter of this study examine the beginning of Birgitta s career as a visionary, what factors and influences lay behind it, and what kind of roles they played in establishing her religious authority. The fifth, sixth, and seventh chapter concentrate on Birgitta s exercising of power in specific situations during her time in Sweden until she left on a pilgrimage to Rome in 1349. The central question is how she exercised power with different people. As a result, this book will offer a narrative of Birgitta s social interactions in Sweden seen from the perspectives of power and authority. Along with the concept of power, authority is a key issue. By definition, one who has power also has authority but a person who does not have official power can, nevertheless, have authority. Authority in action is defined here as meaning that a person was listened to. Birgitta acted both in situations of open conflict and where no conflict was evident. Her strategies included, for example, inducement, encouragement and flattery. In order to make people do as she felt was right she also threatened them openly with divine wrath. Sometimes she even used both positive persuasion and threats. Birgitta s power seems very similar to that of priests and ascetics. Common to all of them was that their power demanded interaction with other people and audiences. Because Birgitta did not have power and authority ex officio she had to persuade people to believe in her powers. She did this because she was convinced of her mission and sought to make people change their lives. In so doing, she moved from the domestic field to the public fields of religion and politics.

Sankarihautaus vapaussodassa : valkoisten kaatuneiden hautaaminen Suomessa vuonna 1918

Civil War Hero Burials the funerals of the fallen White in Finland in 1918 This study focuses on the burial with honours of fallen White combatants during the Finnish Civil War of 1918, as well as on the reasons underpinning the practice. The main sources of the study included the archives of the White army, the Civil Guard organisation and the Church, as well as the newspapers. The genetic method of history research was used. Both the existing tradition of military burials and the ecclesiastical burial culture influenced the burials of those who fell during the Civil War. The first war hero funerals took place as early as the beginning of February 1918, and the first larger-scale collective funerals were organised in Laihia and Vaasa in the Ostrobothnia province, with the latter attended by the supreme civil and military leaders of White Finland. From early on, these funerals assumed their characteristic features, such as the lion flag a design for the Finnish national flag proposed immediately upon the declaration of the country s independence military parades, lines of honour guards, eulogies, salutes and common war hero graves. As a result of the general offensive begun in mid-March 1918, the numbers of the fallen multiplied, so special organisations were established to handle the burials of the fallen. At the same time, the war hero funerals became more frequent and diffused, and the numbers of the buried grew throughout the country. In early March, the advocates of the republican system of government published their appeal in the newspapers, requesting that collective graves for those who fell in the war prepared in every locality. They motivated their request by stating that it was the funerals in particular that had inspired many men to join the ranks voluntarily in the first place, and that the large collective soldiers graves increased the numbers of those who answered the call and left for the front. The Civil Guard organisation arranged the burials of war heroes. The clergy contributed by officiating the religious service and by clearly aligning themselves with the Whites in their eulogies. The teachings of the Lutheran Church suggest that they found the Whites to be the temporal authority instituted by God, and therefore authorised raising the sword against the Reds. Speaking at the funerals with great pomp and sentimental power, the leaders of the Civil Guard and the exponents of the learned classes instigated their audiences against the Reds. The funeral speeches idealised the war hero s death by recalling military history since the times of ancient Greece. Being of the emblematic colour of the Whites, the white coffin assumed a particular importance connected to ideas of biblical purity and innocence. By the end of May 1918, almost 3,300 Whites were buried in the soldiers graves prepared by the burial organisation in some 400 localities. Only about 200 men remained missing in action or unidentified. The largest common graves accommodated over 60 fallen combatants. Thus, the traditions of the 1918 Civil War directly influenced war hero burial practices, which continued into the Finnish Winter War of 1939.

Sangen ialo Rucous : Schwenckfeldiläisten rukouskirja Mikael Agricolan lähteenä

Sangen ialo Rucous. The prayer book of the Schwenckfeldiens as a source for Michael Agricola The significance of the prayer book published by the Finnish reformer Michael Agricola in the year of 1544 has not been comprehended enough among the prayer literature of the Reformation century. Especially in foreign research literature one of the era s most extensive and versatile prayer books has been practically disregarded. According to the prayer book, Agricola appears to be a traditionalist, who derives most of his source material from medieval and old church prayer books. The low number of the prayers from Evangelical prayer books is noteworthy. The study in hand examines Agricola s theology expressed in his translation work of the prayer book of the mystic spiritualistic Schwenckfeldien movement. The prayer book of the Schwenckdeldiens diverged from Lutheranism was called Bekantnus der sünden and it was composed around the year of 1526. Agricola is the only prayer book collector who has regarded it as necessary to add all the 45 prayers of the Schwenckfeldien prayer book and its introduction to his book. In the prayers containing the Schwenckfeldien communion theology and Christology Agricola has not changed the content of the text, apparently because he was not aware of the problems involved in the Schwenckfeldien theology. On a few occasions Agricola added points of view concerning the church, priesthood, preaching the Word and sacraments to his prayers, which the Schwenckfeldiens despised. From the ten additions four Agricola created himself, the rest he borrowed from Wolfgang Capito s prayer book. As a source Agricola used Capito s Latin prayer book together with the German text from Bekantnus. When looking at the studied material, Agricola does not turn out to be a creative translator. Even though he had a model for a less restricted translation in Wolfgang Capito s prayer book, he sticks to his habit of translating word by word. Because not even a good example has had a liberating effect on his translation principles, Agricola cannot be considered a theologically orientated writer. The translation of the Schwenckfeldien prayers Agricola starts with Capito s prayer book. Very soon he takes the Bekantnus alongside Capito s text and abandons the use of Capito s prayer book in the middle of the translation process. Comparing Agricola s translation with the two texts in different languages has made it possible to create the disposition theory described above. On the basis of the disposition theory it can be concluded that Agricola first worked out a precise plan for his prayer book. Then he translated prayers theme by theme using multiple sources at the same time. Later Agricola fixed the disposition, which does not seem to have a direct paragon. From the prayers of the Schwenckfeldien prayer book Agricola translated 26 texts using the Bekantnus as an only base, from Capito s prayer book he translated four texts and 17 texts he translated using the two basic texts simultaneously. In the previous studies, words and texts added by Agricola have been examined as one problem unit. In this study the additions have been placed into three different categories: additions consequential on tautological parataxis, specifying additions and additions significant to the content. Due to Agricola s meticulous translation techniques, there are so few additions. Agricola does not show his own creativity even in the additions significant to the content but uses there some complete sentences or word fragments from the other prayers he has translated. In the translations of the prayers there are some unique appearing words and the analysis of the translation work shed a new light on the background of their first literary appearance in Finnish. Agricola s linguistic abilities turned out to be great. In those prayers where Agricola uses both the German and Latin basic texts at the same time, the translation process is a very intensive twine made on the basis of the two sources.

Venäjän politiikka ja perustuslaki : Tutkimus Venäjän perustuslakikäsitteistön kehityksestä 1900-luvulla

Constitutional politics in Russia, a conceptual history study of the constitutional rhetoric in the 20th century In April 2006 the Russian Constitution had its 100th anniversary. Following its late start, five constitutions have been adopted. The great number of constitutions is partly explained in my work by the fact that Russia s political system has changed many times, from one state system to another. From a monarchical state power, it changed first, with the October revolution, into the Russian Socialist Federal Soviet Republic, and after that, in 1924, into the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In 1991, the Russian Federation was established. The great number of constitutions can also be explained by the fact that in a one-party system, constitutional concepts became one of the most important instruments for introducing political programmes. When the political unity of the state was not only restricted by the Constitution, but also by the party ideology, the political debates concerning constitutional concepts were the key discussions for all the reformative pursuits of Soviet politics. It can be said that, in the Soviet Union, almost all political discourses dealt with constitutional concepts. In the context of restricted unity, the constitutional concepts were the most important tools to argue and create a basis for a new presentation and new political programmes. Thus, the basic feature of the Soviet political discourses has been a continuous competition regarding the constitutional concepts. By defining the constitutional concepts, a new, the political elites wanted especially to redefine, their own way, the traditional meanings of the October 1917 Revolution, and to differentiate them from those of the preceding period of power. From a methodological point of view, I argue that the Russian constitutional concepts make a conceptual historical approach very suitable, and change the focus on history. This approach studies history in contemporary contexts which follow after each other, and whose texts are the main research target. The picture of history is created through the interpretation of the original sources of contemporary contexts. Focusing on the dynamic and traditional characteristic of Russian constitutional concepts, I refer to a certain kind of value and the task of these concepts to justify and define the political and societal unity in every situation. This is done by combining the pursued future orientation of constitutional unity with the new acts of preservation of the traditional principles of the revolution. The different time layers of the constitutional concepts, the past, the present and the future, are the key aspects of storytelling in justifying the continuity and redefining the constitutional unity for the sake of reform. These aspects of constitutional concepts, in addition to all the other functions, have been the main elements of the argumentative structure of acting against opponents.

Kristallivalheita : Itsepetos filosofisen tulkinnan lähtökohtana eräissä draaman klassikoissa

The philosophical problem of self-deception focuses the relation between desire, advantage, evidence and harm. A self-deceptive person is irrational because he or she belives or wants to belive contrary to the available evidence. The study focuses on different forms of self-deception that come out in certain classical Western dramas. The first self-deception forms are: "S knows that ~p but still belives that p because he wants that ~p", "S wants that p and therefore belives that p.", "S belives that p against evidence t because he wants to belive that p.", "S belives that p if t but S would belive that p even if ~t because S wants to belive that p.", "S belives that p (even if there is t that ~p) because S is ignorant of it." and "S belives that p (even if there is t that ~p) because of ignorant of t due to an internal deception." The main sources on self-deception are the views of contemporary researchers of the subject, such as Robert Audi, Marcia Baron, Bas C. van Fraassen, Mark Johnston, Mike W. Martin, Brian MaLaughlin, Alfred Mele, Amélie Oksenberg Rorty, William Ruddick and Stephen L. White. In this study it is claimed that Shakespeare´s Othello presents self-deception as a tragic phenomenom from witch it follows deceptions and murders. Moliére´s Tartuffe deals with a phony hypocrite´s attempts at cheating. Ibsen´s Wild Duck defends the necessity of vital lies. Beckett´s Waiting for Godot deals with the self-deception witch is related to the waiting of the supernatural rescuer. Miller´s The Death of a Salesman tells about a man who, while pursuing the American myth of success, winds both himself and his family into the skeins of self-deception. They are studied with a Barthesian method that emphasizes the autonomy of literary work and its interpretation independently of the author´s personal history and social conditions. Self-deception has been regarded as an immoral way of thinking or way of action. However, vital lies show the necessity or necessity of the self-deception when it brings joy and optimism to the human being and supports his or her self-esteem and does not cause a suffering or damage, either to self or others. In the study, the processual character of self-deception is brought out.

Puukaupan säännöt : Yksityismetsänomistajien ja metsäteollisuuden puukauppa Itä-Suomessa 1919 - 1939

The Finnish forest industry bought more than half of the timber used in factories and sawmills in the 1930s from non-industrial private forests (NIPF). This research investigates the rules conformed to this timber trade. The main research questions are: what were the rules that influenced the timber trade; and by whom they were set up? Attention is also paid to the factors which advanced the forest owners’ negotiation possibilities. A variety of sources were used: legal and company statutes, timber trade contracts, archives of the forest companies and organisations. Moreover, the written reminiscences collected by the Finnish Literature Society in the early 1970s were used to analyse the views of individual sellers and buyers. An institutional economics approach was applied as the theoretical framework of this study. In the timber trade the seller (forest owner) and the buyer (the employee of the forest company) agreed to the rules of the timber trade. They agreed about the amount and the price of the timber on sale, but also rules concerning, e.g., timber marking and harvesting. The forest companies had a strong control over the written contracts. Neither the private forest owners nor the forest organisations had much influence over these contracts. However, they managed to influence the rules which could not be found in the contracts. These written and unwritten rules regulated, for instance, the timber marking and measurement. The forest organisations such as Central Forestry Board Tapio (Keskusmetsäseura Tapio) and associations of forest owners (metsänhoitoyhdistykset) helped private forest owners in gaining more control over the timber marking. In timber marking, the forest owner selected trees to be included in the timber trade and gained more information, which he could use in the negotiations. The other rule, which was changed despite forest companies’ resistance, was the timber measurement. The Central Union of Agricultural Producers (MTK) negotiated with the Central Association of Finnish Woodworking Industries (SPKL) about changing the rules of the measurement practices. Even though SPKL did not support any changes, the new timber measurement law was accepted in the year 1938. The new law also created a supervisory authority to solve possible disagreements. Despite this the forest companies were still in charge of the measurement process in most cases. The private forest owners attained changes in the rules of the timber trade mainly during the 1930s. Earlier the relative weakness of the private forest organisations had diminished their negotiation positions. This changed in the 1930s as the private forest owners and their organisations became more active. At the same time the forest industry experienced a shortage of timber, especially pulp wood, and this provided the private forest owners with more leverage. Full-text (in Finnish) available at http://helda.helsinki.fi/handle/10224/4081

Juutalaisvastaisuus suomalaisissa aikakauslehdissä ja kirjallisuudessa 1918-1944

Anti-Semitism existed in Finland during the whole period covered by this study. The immoral acts associated with Jews in the articles were mostly regarded as universal habits, qualities and/or modes of action, that is, unconnected with any particular Finnish Jew. Researchers have tried to explain anti-Semitism in several ways. The theory of Jews as outsiders has been a popular explanation as well as xenophobia, chimerical anti-Semitism and the socio-economic models. The main sources of this study have been over 400 Finnish periodicals and magazines, literature and text books published between 1918 and 1944. This vast number of magazines includes those of the army and the civil guard, religion, humour and the papers of the Finnish extreme right. One can see a distinct foreign and especially German influence in the subjects and phraseology of Finnish anti-Semitic writings between 1918 and 1944. Several known Finnish anti-Semitic writers had some kind of link with Germany. Some Finnish organisations and societies were openly anti-Semitic during this period. There had been cycles in the activity of anti-Semitic writing in Finland, obvious peaks appearing in 1918 1919, 1929 1931, 1933 1938 and 1942 1944. The reason for the 1918 1919 activity was the civil rights which were granted to the Jews in Finland, and the Russian Bolshevik revolution. The worldwide depression from 1929 to 1932 seem to be the reason for new anti-Semitic writing activity. The rise of National Socialism in Germany and the influence this phenomenon had in Finland was the reason for the peak during 1933 1938. During the continuation war 1942 1944 National Socialist Germany was fighting side-by-side with Finland and their anti-Semitic propaganda found easier access to Finland. Of the 433 magazines, journals and newspapers which were used in this study, 71 or 16.4 per cent had at least one article that can be identified as anti-Semitic; especially the magazines of national socialists and other extreme right parties were making anti-Semitic annotations. There were about 50 people known to have written anti-Semitic articles. At least half of these known writers had studied at the university, including as many as 10 priests. Over and above these, there was an even larger number of people who wrote under a pseudonym. The material used suggested that anti-Semitism was not very popular in Finland between 1918 and 1944. Anti-Semitic articles appeared mostly in the magazines of the extreme right, but their circulation was not very large. A proof of the slight influence of these extreme right anti-Semitic ideas is that, beside the tightening of policy towards Jewish immigrants in 1938 and the handing over of eight of these refugees to Germany in 1942, the official policy of Finland never became anti-Semitic. As was stated before, despite the cycles in the number of writings, there does not appear to have been any noticeable change in public opinion. One must also remember that most Finns had not at that period actually met a Jew. The material used suggests that between 1918 and 1944 the so-called Jewish question was seemingly unimportant for most Finns and their attitude to Jews and Jewishness can be described as neutral.

Climate forcing on avian life history

In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.