30 resultados para Explicit guarantees
Resumo:
Wireless access is expected to play a crucial role in the future of the Internet. The demands of the wireless environment are not always compatible with the assumptions that were made on the era of the wired links. At the same time, new services that take advantage of the advances in many areas of technology are invented. These services include delivery of mass media like television and radio, Internet phone calls, and video conferencing. The network must be able to deliver these services with acceptable performance and quality to the end user. This thesis presents an experimental study to measure the performance of bulk data TCP transfers, streaming audio flows, and HTTP transfers which compete the limited bandwidth of the GPRS/UMTS-like wireless link. The wireless link characteristics are modeled with a wireless network emulator. We analyze how different competing workload types behave with regular TPC and how the active queue management, the Differentiated services (DiffServ), and a combination of TCP enhancements affect the performance and the quality of service. We test on four link types including an error-free link and the links with different Automatic Repeat reQuest (ARQ) persistency. The analysis consists of comparing the resulting performance in different configurations based on defined metrics. We observed that DiffServ and Random Early Detection (RED) with Explicit Congestion Notification (ECN) are useful, and in some conditions necessary, for quality of service and fairness because a long queuing delay and congestion related packet losses cause problems without DiffServ and RED. However, we observed situations, where there is still room for significant improvements if the link-level is aware of the quality of service. Only very error-prone link diminishes the benefits to nil. The combination of TCP enhancements improves performance. These include initial window of four, Control Block Interdependence (CBI) and Forward RTO recovery (F-RTO). The initial window of four helps a later starting TCP flow to start faster but generates congestion under some conditions. CBI prevents slow-start overshoot and balances slow start in the presence of error drops, and F-RTO reduces unnecessary retransmissions successfully.
Resumo:
Online content services can greatly benefit from personalisation features that enable delivery of content that is suited to each user's specific interests. This thesis presents a system that applies text analysis and user modeling techniques in an online news service for the purpose of personalisation and user interest analysis. The system creates a detailed thematic profile for each content item and observes user's actions towards content items to learn user's preferences. A handcrafted taxonomy of concepts, or ontology, is used in profile formation to extract relevant concepts from the text. User preference learning is automatic and there is no need for explicit preference settings or ratings from the user. Learned user profiles are segmented into interest groups using clustering techniques with the objective of providing a source of information for the service provider. Some theoretical background for chosen techniques is presented while the main focus is in finding practical solutions to some of the current information needs, which are not optimally served with traditional techniques.
Resumo:
Portable music players have made it possible to listen to a personal collection of music in almost every situation, and they are often used during some activity to provide a stimulating audio environment. Studies have demonstrated the effects of music on the human body and mind, indicating that selecting music according to situation can, besides making the situation more enjoyable, also make humans perform better. For example, music can boost performance during physical exercises, alleviate stress and positively affect learning. We believe that people intuitively select different types of music for different situations. Based on this hypothesis, we propose a portable music player, AndroMedia, designed to provide personalised music recommendations using the user’s current context and listening habits together with other user’s situational listening patterns. We have developed a prototype that consists of a central server and a PDA client. The client uses Bluetooth sensors to acquire context information and logs user interaction to infer implicit user feedback. The user interface also allows the user to give explicit feedback. Large user interface elements facilitate touch-based usage in busy environments. The prototype provides the necessary framework for using the collected information together with other user’s listening history in a context- enhanced collaborative filtering algorithm to generate context-sensitive recommendations. The current implementation is limited to using traditional collaborative filtering algorithms. We outline the techniques required to create context-aware recommendations and present a survey on mobile context-aware music recommenders found in literature. As opposed to the explored systems, AndroMedia utilises other users’ listening habits when suggesting tunes, and does not require any laborious set up processes.
Resumo:
Who is the patient? A social-ethical study of the Finnish practice of prenatal screening. The aim of this study is to examine the Finnish practice of prenatal screening from a social-ethical perspective. Analyzing ethical problems in medicine and medical practice only on a general scale may conceal relevant ethical dilemmas. Previous studies have suggested that many pregnant women view the prenatal screening practices customary in the Finnish maternal care system as intimidating and oppressive. This study analyzes the ethical questions of prenatal screening by focusing on the experiences and decision-making of a pregnant woman. Finnish women s experiences of and decision-making on the most common prenatal screening methods are reflected in the basic principles of biomedical ethics described by Tom L. Beauchamp and James F. Childress in Principles of Biomedical Ethics. To concretize women s experiences I refer to studies of Finnish women s experiences of prenatal screenings. This study shows that the principles of autonomy, non-maleficence and beneficence seem to materialize rather poorly in the Finnish practice of prenatal screening. The main ethical problem with prenatal screening is that the likelihood of a foetal cure is very limited and, upon detection of an affected foetus, the choice is usually whether to continue with the pregnancy or to undergo an abortion. Although informed consent should be required, women s participation in prenatal testing is, in many cases at least, not based on their active decision. Many women experience severe anxiety when they receive a positive screening result and must wait for the final results. Medical studies indicate that long- term anxiety may negatively influence the foetus and the mother-child relationship. This study shows that the practice of prenatal screening as such may cause more harm than benefit to many pregnant women and their foetuses. This study examines the decision-making process of a pregnant woman by using the theory of medical casuistry described in Jonsen, Siegler and Winslade s Clinical Ethics. This study focuses on each of the four points of view recommended by the theory. The main problem seems to be the question of whom the patient of prenatal screening is and whom the practice is intended to benefit: the mother, the foetus, the family or society? This study shows that the concepts of health in Finnish maternal care in general, and of the prenatal screening system in particular, differ considerably. It also demonstrates that the purpose and the aims of prenatal screening, aside from the woman s right to choose, has been expressed neither in Finnish public health programmes nor in the public recommendations of prenatal screening. This study suggests that the practice of prenatal screening is a statement, though unexpressed, of public health policy and as such comprises part of the policy of disability. This study further demonstrates that through a single explicit aim (the woman s right to choose) society actually evades its obligation to women by saddling pregnant women with the entire moral responsibility as well as the possible negative consequences of her choice, such as sorrow, regrets and moral balancing. The study reveals several ethical problems in the Finnish practice of prenatal screening. Such problems should be dealt with as the Finnish practice of prenatal screening advances.
Resumo:
The main focus of this study is the epilogue of 4QMMT (4QMiqsat Ma aseh ha-Torah), a text of obscure genre containing a halakhic section found in cave 4 at Qumran. In the official edition published in the series Discoveries of the Judaean Desert (DJD X), the extant document was divided by its editors, Elisha Qimron and John Strugnell, into three literary divisions: Section A) the calendar section representing a 364-day solar calendar, Section B) the halakhot, and Section C) an epilogue. The work begins with text critical inspection of the manuscripts containing text from the epilogue (mss 4Q397, 4Q398, and 4Q399). However, since the relationship of the epilogue to the other sections of the whole document 4QMMT is under investigation, the calendrical fragments (4Q327 and 4Q394 3-7, lines 1-3) and the halakhic section also receive some attention, albeit more limited and purpose oriented. In Ch. 2, after a transcription of the fragments of the epilogue, a synopsis is presented in order to evaluate the composite text of the DJD X edition in light of the evidence provided by the individual manuscripts. As a result, several critical comments are offered, and finally, an alternative arrangement of the fragments of the epilogue with an English translation. In the following chapter (Ch. 3), the diversity of the two main literary divisions, the halakhic section and the epilogue, is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the author(s) of 4QMMT adopted and adjusted the covenantal pattern known from biblical law collections, more specifically Deuteronomy. The question of the genre of 4QMMT is investigated in Ch. 4. The final chapter (Ch. 5) contains an analysis of the use of Scripture in the epilogue. In a close reading, both the explicit citations and the more subtle allusions are investigated in an attempt to trace the theology of the epilogue. The main emphases of the epilogue are covenantal faithfulness, repentance and return. The contents of the document reflect a grave concern for the purity of the cult in Jerusalem, and in the epilogue Deuteronomic language and expressions are used to convince the readers of the necessity of a reformation. The large number of late copies found in cave 4 at Qumran witness the significance of 4QMMT and the continuous importance of the Jerusalem Temple for the Qumran community.
Resumo:
This thesis aims at finding the role of deposit insurance scheme and central bank (CB) in keeping the banking system safe. The thesis also studies the factors associated with long-lasting banking crises. The first essay analyzes the effect of using explicit deposit insurance scheme (EDIS), instead of using implicit deposit insurance scheme (IDIS), on banking crises. The panel data for the period of 1980-2003 includes all countries for which the data on EDIS or IDIS exist. 70% of the countries in the sample are less developed countries (LDCs). About 55% of the countries adopting EDIS also come from LDCs. The major finding is that the using of EDIS increases the crisis probability at a strong significance level. This probability is greater if the EDIS is inefficiently designed allowing higher scope of moral hazard problem. Specifically, the probability is greater if the EDIS provides higher coverage to deposits and if it is less powerful from the legal point of view. This study also finds that the less developed a country is to handle EDIS, the higher the chance of banking crisis. Once the underdevelopment of an economy handling the EDIS is controlled, the EDIS separately is no longer a significant factor of banking crises. The second essay aims at determining whether a country s powerful CB can lessen the instability of the banking sector by minimizing the likelihood of a banking crisis. The data used include indicators of the CB s autonomy for a set of countries over the period of 1980-89. The study finds that in aggregate a more powerful CB lessens the probability of banking crisis. When the CB s authority is disentangled with respect to its responsibilities, the study finds that the longer tenure of CB s chief executive officer and the greater power of CB in assigning interest rate on government loans are necessary for reducing the probability of banking crisis. The study also finds that the probability of crisis reduces more if an autonomous CB can perform its duties in a country with stronger law and order tradition. The costs of long-lasting banking crises are high because both the depositors and the investors lose confidence in the banking system. For a rapid recovery of a crisis, the government very often undertakes one or more crisis resolution policy (CRP) measures. The third essay examines the CRP and other explanatory variables correlated with the durations of banking crises. The major finding is that the CRP measure allowing the regulation forbearance to keep the insolvent banks operative and the public debt relief program are respectively strongly and weakly significant to increase the durations of crises. Some other explanatory variables, which were found by previous studies to be related with the probability of crises to occur, are also correlated with the durations of crises.
Resumo:
From the Soviet point of view the actual substance of Soviet-Finnish relations in the second half of 1950s clearly differed from the contemporary and later public image, based on friendship and confidence rhetoric. As the polarization between the right and the left became more underlined in Finland in the latter half of the 1950s, the criticism towards the Soviet Union became stronger, and the USSR feared that this development would have influence on Finnish foreign policy. From the Soviet point of view, the security commitments of FCMA-treaty needed additional guarantees through control of Finnish domestic politics and economic relations, especially during international crises. In relation to Scandinavia, Finland was, from the Soviet point of view, the model country of friendship or neutrality policy. The influence of the Second Berlin Crisis or the Soviet-Finnish Night Frost Crisis in 1958-1959 to Soviet policy towards Scandinavia needs to be observed from this point of view. The Soviet Union used Finland as a tool, in agreement with Finnish highest political leadership, for weakening of the NATO membership of Norway and Denmark, and for maintaining Swedish non-alliance. The Finnish interest to EFTA membership in the summer of 1959, at the same time with the Scandinavian countries, seems to have caused a panic reaction in the USSR, as the Soviets feared that these economic arrangements would reverse the political advantages the country had received in Finland after the Night Frost Crisis. Together with history of events, this study observes the interaction of practical interests and ideologies, both in individuals and in decision-making organizations. The necessary social and ideological reforms in the Soviet Union after 1956 had influence both on the legitimacy of the regime, and led to contradictions in the argumentation of Soviet foreign policy. This was observed both in the own camp as well as in the West. Also, in Finland a breakthrough took place in the late 1950's: as the so-called counter reaction lost to the K-line, "a special relationship" developed with the Soviet Union. As a consequence of the Night Frost Crisis the Soviet relationship became a factor decisively defining the limits of domestic politics in Finland, a part of Finnish domestic political argumentation. Understood from this basis, finlandization is not, even from the viewpoint of international relations, a special case, but a domestic political culture formed by the relationship between a dominant state, a superpower, and a subordinate state, Finland.
Resumo:
Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.
Resumo:
In line with cultural psychology and developmental theory, a single case approach is applied to construct knowledge on how children s interaction emerge interlinked to historical, social, cultural, and material context. The study focuses on the negotiation of constraints and meaning construction among 2-to 3-year-old children, a preschool teacher, and the researcher in settings with water. Water as an element offers a special case of cultural canalization: adults selectively monitor and guide children s access to it. The work follows the socio-cultural tradition in psychology, particularly the co-constructivist theory of human development and the Network of Meanings perspective developed at the University of São Paulo. Valsiner s concepts of Zone of Free Movement and Zone of Promoted Action are applied together with studies where interactions are seen as spaces of construction where negotiation of constraints for actions, emotions, and conceptions occur. The corpus was derived at a Finnish municipal day care centre. During a seven months period, children s actions were video recorded in small groups twice a month. The teacher and the researcher were present. Four sessions with two children were chosen for qualitative microanalysis; the analysis also addressed the transformations during the months covered by the study. Moreover, the data derivation was analyzed reflectively. The narrowed down arenas for actions were continuously negotiated among the participants both nonverbally and verbally. The adults expectations and intentions were materialized in the arrangements of the setting canalizing the possibilities for actions. Children s co-regulated actions emerged in relation to the adults presence, re-structuring attempts, and the constraints of the setting. Children co-constructed novel movements and meanings in relation to the initiatives and objects offered. Gestures, postures, and verbalizations emerged from the initially random movements and became constructed to have specific meanings and functions; meaning construction became abbreviated. The participants attempted to make sense of the ambiguous (explicit and implicit) intentions and fuzzy boundaries of promoted and possible actions: individualized yet overlapping features were continuously negotiated by all the participants. Throughout the months, children s actions increasingly corresponded adults (re-defined) conceptions of water researchers as an emerging group culture. Water became an instrument and a context for co-regulations. The study contributes to discussions on children as participants in cultural canalization and emphasizes the need for analysis in early childhood education practices on the implicit and explicit constraint structures for actions.
Resumo:
According to Meno s paradox we cannot inquire into what we do not know because we do not know what we are inquiring into. There are many ways to interpret the paradox but the central issue about our ability to reach truth is a profound one. In the dialogue Meno, Plato presents the paradox and an outline of a solution which enables us to reach knowledge (epistēmē) through philosophical discussion. During the last century Meno has often been considered transitional between Socratic thinking and Plato s own philosophy, and thus the dialogue has not been adequately interpreted as an integrated whole. Therefore the distinctive epistemology of the dialogue has not gained due notice. In this thesis the dialogue is analysed as an integrated whole and the philosophical interpretation also takes into account its dramatic features. The thesis emphasises the role of language and definitions in acquiring knowledge. Among the results concerning these subjects is a new interpretation of Socrates s defintion of shape (schēma). The theory of anamnēsis all learning is recollection in the Meno is argued to answer the paradox philosophically although Plato s presentation also contains playful and ironic elements. The background of the way Plato presents his case is that he appreciated the fact that no argument can plausibly demonstrate that argumentation is able to reach truth. In the Meno, Plato makes the earliest explicit distinction between knowledge and true belief in the history of Western philosophy. He also gives a definition of knowledge which is the basis of the so called classical definition of knowledge as justified true belief. In the Meno, true beliefs become knowledge when someone ties them down by reasoning about the explanation. The analysis of the epistemology of the dialogue from this perspective gives an interpretation which integrates the central concepts of the epistemology in the dialogue elenchos, anamnēsis and hypothetical inquiry into a unified whole which contains a plausible argument according to which the ignorant can reach knowledge through discussion. The conception that emerges by such an analysis is interesting both from the point of view of current interests and that of the history of philosophy. The method of knowledge acquisition in the Meno can, for example, be seen as a predecessor of modern scientific methods. The Meno is the earliest Greek mathematical text that has survived in its original form. The analysis presented in the thesis of the geometric passages in the dialogue provides new results both concerning Socrates s geometry lesson with the slave and the example presenting the hypothetical method. Concerning the latter, a new interpretation is presented. Keywords: anamnēsis, epistēmē, knowledge, Meno s paradox, Plato
Resumo:
We reformulate and extend our recently introduced quantum kinetic theory for interacting fermion and scalar fields. Our formalism is based on the coherent quasiparticle approximation (cQPA) where nonlocal coherence information is encoded in new spectral solutions at off-shell momenta. We derive explicit forms for the cQPA propagators in the homogeneous background and show that the collision integrals involving the new coherence propagators need to be resummed to all orders in gradient expansion. We perform this resummation and derive generalized momentum space Feynman rules including coherent propagators and modified vertex rules for a Yukawa interaction. As a result we are able to set up self-consistent quantum Boltzmann equations for both fermion and scalar fields. We present several examples of diagrammatic calculations and numerical applications including a simple toy model for coherent baryogenesis.
Resumo:
We study effective models of chiral fields and Polyakov loop expected to describe the dynamics responsible for the phase structure of two-flavor QCD at finite temperature and density. We consider chiral sector described either using linear sigma model or Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model and study the phase diagram and determine the location of the critical point as a function of the explicit chiral symmetry breaking (i.e. the bare quark mass $m_q$). We also discuss the possible emergence of the quarkyonic phase in this model.
Resumo:
The present study focused on the associations between the personal experiences of intergroup contact, perceived social norms and the outgroup attitudes of Finnish majority and Russian-speaking minority youth living in Finland. The theoretical background of the study was derived from Allport s (1954) theory of intergroup contact (i.e., the contact hypothesis), social psychological research on normative influences on outgroup attitudes (e.g., Rutland, 2004; Stangor and Leary, 2006) and developmental psychological research on the formation of explicit (deliberate) and implicit (automatically activated) outgroup attitudes in adolescence (e.g., Barrett, 2007; Killen, McGlothlin and Henning, 2008). The main objective of the study was to shed light on the role of perceived social norms in the formation of outgroup attitudes among adolescents. First, the study showed that perceived normative pressure to hold positive attitudes towards immigrants regulated the relationship between the explicit and implicit expression of outgroup attitudes among majority youth. Second, perceived social norms concerning outgroup attitudes (i.e., the perceived outgroup attitudes of parents and peers) affected the relationship between intergroup contact and explicit outgroup attitudes depending on gender and group status. Positive social norms seem to be especially important for majority boys, who need both pleasant contact experiences and normative support to develop outgroup attitudes that are as positive as girls attitudes. The role of social norms is accentuated also among minority youth, who, contrary to majority youth with their more powerful and independent status position, need to reflect upon their attitudes and experiences of negative intergroup encounters in relation to the experiences and attitudes of their ingroup members. Third, the results are indicative of the independent effects of social norms and intergroup anxiety on outgroup attitudes: the effect of perceived social norms on the outgroup attitudes of youth seems to be at least as strong as the effect of intergroup anxiety. Finally, it was shown that youth evaluate intergroup contact from the viewpoint of their ingroup and society as a whole, not just based on their own experiences. In conclusion, the outgroup attitudes of youth are formed in a close relationship with their social environment. On the basis of this study, the importance of perceived social norms for research on intergroup contact effects among youth cannot be overlooked. Positive normative influences have the potential to break the strong link between rare and/or negative personal contact experiences and negative outgroup attitudes, and norms also influence the relationship between implicit and explicit attitude expression.
Resumo:
Herbivorous insects, their host plants and natural enemies form the largest and most species-rich communities on earth. But what forces structure such communities? Do they represent random collections of species, or are they assembled by given rules? To address these questions, food webs offer excellent tools. As a result of their versatile information content, such webs have become the focus of intensive research over the last few decades. In this thesis, I study herbivore-parasitoid food webs from a new perspective: I construct multiple, quantitative food webs in a spatially explicit setting, at two different scales. Focusing on food webs consisting of specialist herbivores and their natural enemies on the pedunculate oak, Quercus robur, I examine consistency in food web structure across space and time, and how landscape context affects this structure. As an important methodological development, I use DNA barcoding to resolve potential cryptic species in the food webs, and to examine their effect on food web structure. I find that DNA barcoding changes our perception of species identity for as many as a third of the individuals, by reducing misidentifications and by resolving several cryptic species. In terms of the variation detected in food web structure, I find surprising consistency in both space and time. From a spatial perspective, landscape context leaves no detectable imprint on food web structure, while species richness declines significantly with decreasing connectivity. From a temporal perspective, food web structure remains predictable from year to year, despite considerable species turnover in local communities. The rate of such turnover varies between guilds and species within guilds. The factors best explaining these observations are abundant and common species, which have a quantitatively dominant imprint on overall structure, and suffer the lowest turnover. By contrast, rare species with little impact on food web structure exhibit the highest turnover rates. These patterns reveal important limitations of modern metrics of quantitative food web structure. While they accurately describe the overall topology of the web and its most significant interactions, they are disproportionately affected by species with given traits, and insensitive to the specific identity of species. As rare species have been shown to be important for food web stability, metrics depicting quantitative food web structure should then not be used as the sole descriptors of communities in a changing world. To detect and resolve the versatile imprint of global environmental change, one should rather use these metrics as one tool among several.
Resumo:
Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.