38 resultados para currency fluctuations
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This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.
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The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three essays that apply search-matching theory to study the interaction of labor market frictions, technological change and macroeconomic fluctuations. The first essay studies the impact of capital-embodied growth on equilibrium unemployment by extending a vintage capital/search model to incorporate vintage human capital. In addition to the capital obsolescence (or creative destruction) effect that tends to raise unemployment, vintage human capital introduces a skill obsolescence effect of faster growth that has the opposite sign. Faster skill obsolescence reduces the value of unemployment, hence wages and leads to more job creation and less job destruction, unambiguously reducing unemployment. The second essay studies the effect of skill biased technological change on skill mismatch and the allocation of workers and firms in the labor market. By allowing workers to invest in education, we extend a matching model with two-sided heterogeneity to incorporate an endogenous distribution of high and low skill workers. We consider various possibilities for the cost of acquiring skills and show that while unemployment increases in most scenarios, the effect on the distribution of vacancy and worker types varies according to the structure of skill costs. When the model is extended to incorporate endogenous labor market participation, we show that the unemployment rate becomes less informative of the state of the labor market as the participation margin absorbs employment effects. The third essay studies the effects of labor taxes on equilibrium labor market outcomes and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model with matching frictions. Three policy instruments are considered: a marginal tax and a tax subsidy to produce tax progression schemes, and a replacement ratio to account for variability in outside options. In equilibrium, the marginal tax rate and replacement ratio dampen economic activity whereas tax subsidies boost the economy. The marginal tax rate and replacement ratio amplify shock responses whereas employment subsidies weaken them. The tax instruments affect the degree to which the wage absorbs shocks. We show that increasing tax progression when taxation is initially progressive is harmful for steady state employment and output, and amplifies the sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to shocks. When taxation is initially proportional, increasing progression is beneficial for output and employment and dampens shock responses.
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Tiivistelmä
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This dissertation deals with the terminology of the Euro currency. Its aims are to determine the characteristics of the designations in a certain LSP and to discover whether the recommendations and rules that have been given to the formation of designations and 'ideal' designations have any influence on the usage of the designations. The characteristics analysed include length of the designation, part of speech, form, formation method, constancy, monosemy, suitability to a concept system and degree of specialty. The study analyses the actual usage of the designations in texts and the implementation of the designations. The study is an adaptation of a terminometric survey and uses concept analysis and quantitative analysis as its basic methods. The frequency of each characteristic is measured in terms of statistics. It is assumed that the 'ideality' of a designation influences its usage, for example that if a designation is short, it is used more than its longer rivals (synonyms). The results are analysed in a corpus consisting of a compilation of different texts concerning the Euro. The corpus is divided according to three features: year (1998-2003), genre (judicial texts, annual reports and brochures) and language (Finnish and German). Each analysis is performed according to each of these features and compared with the others. The results indicate that some of the characteristics of the designations indeed seem to have an influence on the usage of the designations. For example, monosemy and suitability to the concept system often lead to the implementation of the designation having the ideal or certain value in these characteristics in the analysed Finnish material. In German material, an 'ideal' value in the characteristics leads to the implementation of the designations more often than in Finnish. The contrastive study indicates that, for example, suitability to a concept system leads to implementation of a designation in judicial texts more often than in other genres. The recommendations given to an 'ideal' designation are thus often acceptable, but they cannot be generalized for all languages in the same extent.
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In this paper, I look into a grammatical phenomenon found among speakers of the Cambridgeshire dialect of English. According to my hypothesis, the phenomenon is a new entry into the past BE verb paradigm in the English language. In my paper, I claim that the structure I have found complements the existing two verb forms, was and were, with a third verb form that I have labelled ‘intermediate past BE’. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first section, I introduce the theoretical ground for the study of variation, which is founded on empiricist principles. In variationist linguistics, the main claim is that heterogeneous language use is structured and ordered. In the last 50 years of history in modern linguistics, this claim is controversial. In the 1960s, the generativist movement spearheaded by Noam Chomsky diverted attention away from grammatical theories that are based on empirical observations. The generativists steered away from language diversity, variation and change in favour of generalisations, abstractions and universalist claims. The theoretical part of my paper goes through the main points of the variationist agenda and concludes that abandoning the concept of language variation in linguistics is harmful for both theory and methodology. In the method part of the paper, I present the Helsinki Archive of Regional English Speech (HARES) corpus. It is an audio archive that contains interviews conducted in England in the 1970s and 1980s. The interviews were done in accordance to methods used generally in traditional dialectology. The informants are mostly elderly male people who have lived in the same region throughout their lives and who have left school at an early age. The interviews are actually conversations: the interviewer allowed the informant to pick the topic of conversation to induce a maximally relaxed and comfortable atmosphere and thus allow the most natural dialect variant to emerge in the informant’s speech. In the paper, the corpus chapter introduces some of the transcription and annotation problems associated with spoken language corpora (especially those containing dialectal speech). Questions surrounding the concept of variation are present in this part of the paper too, as especially transcription work is troubled by the fundamental problem of having to describe the fluctuations of everyday speech in text. In the empirical section of the paper, I use HARES to analyse the speech of four informants, with special focus on the emergence of the intermediate past BE variant. My observations and the subsequent analysis permit me to claim that my hypothesis seems to hold. The intermediate variant occupies almost all contexts where one would expect was or were in the informants’ speech. This means that the new variant is integrated into the speakers’ grammars and exemplifies the kind of variation that is at the heart of this paper.
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A small fraction of the energy absorbed in the light reactions of photosynthesis is re-emitted as chlorophyll-a fluorescence. Chlorophyll-a fluorescence and photochemistry compete for excitation energy in photosystem II (PSII). Therefore, changes in the photochemical capacity can be detected through analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence. Chlorophyll fluorescence techniques have been widely used to follow the diurnal (fast), and the seasonal (slow) acclimation in the energy partitioning between photochemical and non-photochemical processes in PSII. Energy partitioning in PSII estimated through chlorophyll fluorescence can be used as a proxy of the plant physiological status, and measured at different spatial and temporal scales. However, a number of technical and theoretical limitations still limit the use of chlorophyll fluorescence data for the study of the acclimation of PSII. The aim of this Thesis was to study the diurnal and seasonal acclimation of PSII in field conditions through the development and testing of new chlorophyll fluorescence-based tools, overcoming these limitations. A new model capable of following the fast acclimation of PSII to rapid fluctuations in light intensity was developed. The model was used to study the rapid acclimation in the electron transport rate under fluctuating light. Additionally, new chlorophyll fluorescence parameters were developed for estimating the seasonal acclimation in the sustained rate constant of thermal energy dissipation and photochemistry. The parameters were used to quantitatively evaluate the effect of light and temperature on the seasonal acclimation of PSII. The results indicated that light environment not only affected the degree but also the kinetics of response of the acclimation to temperature, which was attributed to differences in the structural organization of PSII during seasonal acclimation. Furthermore, zeaxanthin-facilitated thermal dissipation appeared to be the main mechanisms modulating the fraction of absorbed energy being dissipated thermally during winter in field Scots pine. Finally, the integration between diurnal and seasonal acclimation mechanisms was studied using a recently developed instrument MONI-PAM (Walz GmbH, Germany) capable of continuously monitoring the energy partitioning in PSII.
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World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.
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This thesis consists of two parts; in the first part we performed a single-molecule force extension measurement with 10kb long DNA-molecules from phage-λ to validate the calibration and single-molecule capability of our optical tweezers instrument. Fitting the worm-like chain interpolation formula to the data revealed that ca. 71% of the DNA tethers featured a contour length within ±15% of the expected value (3.38 µm). Only 25% of the found DNA had a persistence length between 30 and 60 nm. The correct value should be within 40 to 60 nm. In the second part we designed and built a precise temperature controller to remove thermal fluctuations that cause drifting of the optical trap. The controller uses feed-forward and PID (proportional-integral-derivative) feedback to achieve 1.58 mK precision and 0.3 K absolute accuracy. During a 5 min test run it reduced drifting of the trap from 1.4 nm/min in open-loop to 0.6 nm/min in closed-loop.
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Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees were present in the Baltic region (~55°N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (~11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern Europe. The gradual warming trend was interrupted by a cold event ~8200 cal yr BP. The maximum temperatures, ~1.5-3.0°C above modern values, were attained ~8000-4000 cal yr BP. This mid-Holocene peak warmth was coupled with low lake levels, low effective humidity and summertime drought. The late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) was characterized by gradually decreasing temperatures, higher lake levels and higher effective humidity. Moreover, the gradual trends of the late Holocene were probably superimposed by higher-frequency variability. The spatial variability of the Holocene temperature and moisture balance patterns were tentatively attributed to the differing heat capacities of continents and oceans, changes in atmospheric circulation modes and position of sites and subregions with respect to large water bodies and topographic barriers. The combination of physical and biological proxy archives is a pivotal aspect of this work, because non-climatic factors, such as postglacial migration, disturbances and competitive interactions, can influence reshuffling of vegetation and hence, pollen-based climate reconstructions. The oxygen-isotope records and other physical proxies presented in this work manifest that postglacial climate changes were the main driver of the establishment and expansion of temperate and boreal tree populations, and hence, large-scale and long-term vegetation patterns were in dynamic equilibrium with climate. A notable exception to this pattern may be the postglacial invasion of Norway spruce and the related suppression of mid-Holocene temperate forest. This salient step in north-European vegetation history, the development of the modern boreal ecosystem, cannot be unambiguously explained by current evidence of postglacial climate changes. The results of this work highlight that plant populations, including long-lived trees, may be able to respond strikingly rapidly to changes in climate. Moreover, interannual and seasonal variation and extreme events can exert an important influence on vegetation reshuffling. Importantly, the studies imply that the presence of diffuse refuge populations or local stands among the prevailing vegetation may have provided the means for extraordinarily rapid vegetation responses. Hence, if scattered populations are not provided and tree populations are to migrate long distances, their capacity to keep up with predicted rates of future climate change may be lower than previously thought.
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Nisäkkäiden levinneisyyteen, niiden morfologisiin ja ekologisiin piirteisiin vaikuttavat ympäristön sekä lyhyet että pitkäkestoiset muutokset, etenkin ilmaston ja kasvillisuuden vaihtelut. Työssä tutkittiin nisäkkäiden sopeutumista ilmastonmuutoksiin Euraasiassa viimeisen 24 miljoonan vuoden aikana. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin varsinkin viimeiseen kahteen miljoonaan vuoteen, jonka aikana ilmasto muuttui voimakkaasti ja ihmisen toiminta alkoi tulla merkittäväksi. Tämän takia on usein vaikea erottaa, kummasta em. seikasta jonkin nisäkäslajin sukupuutto tai häviäminen alueelta johtui. Aineistona käytettiin laajaa venäjänkielistä kirjallisuutta, josta löytyvät tiedot ovat kääntämättöminä jääneet aiemmin länsimaisen tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Työssä käytettiin myös NOW-tietokantaa, jossa on fossiilisten nisäkkäiden löytöpaikat sekä niiden iät.
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Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.
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This doctoral thesis addresses the macroeconomic effects of real shocks in open economies in flexible exchange rate regimes. The first study of this thesis analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the `pure waste' case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. The second study of this thesis analyses the question of how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on optimal intertemporal behaviour. The key result is that the effects of fiscal policy depend on the size of the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. In particular, the sign of the current account response to fiscal policy depends on the interplay between the intertemporal elasticity of aggregate consumption and the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. The third study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. The fourth study analyses the question of how the international transmission of technology shocks depends on the specification of nominal rigidities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a temporary decline in employment. In this study, I demonstrate that the open economy dimension can enhance the ability of sticky price models to account for the evidence. The reasoning is as follows. An improvement in technology appreciates the nominal exchange rate. Under producer-currency pricing, the exchange rate appreciation shifts global demand toward foreign goods away from domestic goods. This causes a temporary decline in domestic employment.
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This licentiate's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate regime, assuming that the government spends exclusively on domestically produced goods. The motivation for this research comes from the observation that the literature on the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has focused almost exclusively on two-country global models and the analyses of the effects of fiscal policy on small economies are almost completely ignored. This thesis aims at filling in the gap in the NOEM literature and illustrates how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on the specification of preferences. The research method is to present two theoretical model that are extensions to the model contained in the Appendix to Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The first model analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, making use of a model that exploits the idea of modelling private and government consumption as substitutes in private utility. The model offers intuitive predictions on how the effects of fiscal policy depend on the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The findings illustrate that the higher the substitutability between private and government consumption, (i) the bigger is the crowding out effect on private consumption (ii) and the smaller is the positive effect on output. The welfare analysis shows that the less fiscal policy decreases welfare the higher is the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The second model of this thesis studies how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy depend on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. This model reveals that this elasticity a key variable to explain the exchange rate, current account and output response to a permanent rise in government spending. Finally, the model demonstrates that temporary changes in government spending are an effective stabilization tool when used wisely and timely in response to undesired fluctuations in output. Undesired fluctuations in output can be perfectly offset by an opposite change in government spending without causing any side-effects.
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Individuals face variable environmental conditions during their life. This may be due to migration, dispersion, environmental changes or, for example, annual variation in weather conditions. Genetic adaptation to a novel environment happens through natural selection. Phenotypic plasticity allows, however, a quick individual response to a new environment. Phenotypic plasticity may also be beneficial for individual if the environment is highly variable. For example, eggs are costly to produce. If the food conditions vary significantly between breeding seasons it is useful to be able to adjust the clutch and egg size according to the food abundance. In this thesis I use Ural owl vole system to study phenotypic plasticity and natural selection using a number of reproduction related traits. The Ural owl (Strix uralensis) is a long-lived and sedentary species. The reproduction and survival of the Ural owl, in fact their whole life, is tied to the dramatically fluctuating vole densities. Ural owls do not cause vole cycles but they have to adjust their behaviour to the rather predictable population fluctuations of these small mammals. Earlier work with this system has shown that Ural owl laying date and clutch size are plastic in relation to vole abundance. Further, individual laying date clutch size reaction norms have been shown to vary in the amount of plasticity. My work extends the knowledge of natural selection and phenotypic plasticity in traits related to reproduction. I show that egg size, timing of the onset of incubation and nest defense aggressiveness are plastic traits with fitness consequences for the Ural owl. Although egg size is in general thought to be a fixed characteristic of an individual, this highly heritable trait in the Ural owl is also remarkably plastic in relation to the changes in vole numbers, Ural owls are laying the largest eggs when their prey is most abundant. Timing of the onset of incubation is an individual-specific property and plastic in relation to clutch size. Timing of incubation is an important underlying cause for asynchronous hatching in birds. Asynchronous hatching is beneficial to offspring survival in Ural owl. Hence, timing of the onset of incubation may also be under natural selection. Ural owl females also adjust their nest defense aggressiveness according to the vole dynamics, being most aggressive in years when they produce the largest broods. Individual females show different levels of nest defense aggressiveness. Aggressiveness is positively correlated with the phenotypic plasticity of aggressiveness. As elevated nest defense aggressiveness is selected for, it may promote the plasticity of aggressive nest defense behaviour. All the studied traits are repeatable or heritable on individual level, and their expression is either directly or indirectly sensitive to changes in vole numbers. My work considers a number of important fitness-related traits showing phenotypic plasticity in all of them. Further, in two chapters I show that there is individual variation in the amount of plasticity exhibited. These findings on plasticity in reproduction related traits suggest that variable environments indeed promote plasticity.