Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.

Teacher quality in upper secondary science education in Australia

Science education has been the subject of increasing public interest over the last few years. While a good part of this attention has been due to the fundamental reshaping of school curricula and teacher professional standards currently underway, there has been a heightened level of critical media commentary about the state of science education in schools and science teacher education in universities. In some cases, the commentary has been informed by sound evidence and balanced perspectives. More recently, however, a greater degree of ignorance and misrepresentation has crept into the discourse. This chapter provides background on the history and status of science teacher education in Australia, along with insights into recent developments and challenges.

Death, Ancestors, and HIV/AIDS among the Akan of Ghana

This is a study of crises caused by HIV/AIDS among the Akan of Ghana. It creates more awareness about the epidemic and has indicated other possible paths for campaign strategies. The pandemic has many devastating consequences; yet new infections are recorded daily despite campaigns against the disease. The search for therapy often sees the use of multiple outlets, which expresses Ghana's pluralistic medical system based on Kleinman's sector analytical model involving Western medicine, self-therapy, and folk healing. But it also leaves individuals and kin members in financial quandary. The fieldwork for this study is mainly through participant observation lasting 13 months (February 2003 to March 2004) among the Akan; in addition, some archival materials have been used. The Akan people live in the coastal south and forest zone of Ghana. Every Akan village or town is made up of corporate lineages, and social organisation is based on matrilineal descent. The society is holistic because the matrilineages seek the welfare of all their members. Meyer Fortes, R. S. Rattray and others on the Akan noticed this encompassing nature in the lineage organisation; but they did not make it salient (or failed to notice it) during illness, efforts for healing, and the care of the sick member. HIV/AIDS is an illness which shows the encompassing nature of the Akan matrilineage. It also reveals many contradictions in the group, viz. stigmatisation, abandonment, and attitudes that do not express altruism in a group expected to be closely-knit based on members' belief that they are of the 'same blood'. The crises have been analyzed in the total social system because the disease creates breaches at various levels of social interaction. An analysis of crises in a group is not far-fetched; Victor Turner has shown the way among the Ndembu and has revealed the contraditions in the seemingly uneventful life in the group. This study has identified that in dealing with HIV/AIDS patients and crises about the disease we are dealing with 'holistic' patients. Their cases produce many changes in the matrilineal structure--many orphans are being created and the care of patients is increasingly falling on the elderly. HIV/AIDS also challenges Akan cosmology because, for example, an AIDS death in local notions is a 'bad' demise which fails to produce ancestors who reproduce the society through reincarnation. Campaigns could emphasize this notion. The study begins with a description of the holistic nature of Akan matriliny, and the patients have been described as 'holistic' because their crises affect other people in the holistic society. Chapter 2 discusses the importance of ancestors as the starting points for social order who are constantly revered (in rites invoving the chief, Chapter 4). Chapter 3 focuses on funerals as an important social performance for the welfare of the dead and the living. Chapter 5 concentrates on HIV/AIDS as an illness threat marked by dominant discourses such as poverty, sexuality, migration, and condom use. Chapter 6 analyzes the attempts for therapy, and traditional healers' claims to have a cure. The efforts for therapy continues with spiritual church healing in Chapter 7, and chapter 8 is devoted to care of the patients and its inherent crises. Chapter 9 analyzes the effects of HIV/AIDS afflictions and AIDS deaths on the matrilineal group and in society. The study ends with a short part, devoted to Recommendations based on the findings in this investigation.

Viitotut elämät : Kuurojen nuorten aikuisten kokemuksia viittomakielisestä elämästä Suomessa

The goal of the study is to build an image of deafness and of the lives of the deaf from their own per-spectives. The lives of deaf sign language users are analysed through the concept of identity. The start-ing point for the study is the idea that identities are moulded and structured in action and interaction and are, therefore, continuous processes. The terminology and ideas used in the present study are mostly based on Erving Goffman s (1971, 1986) work in which he sees identity as a representation of self. Via our language and our actions we build and present an image of ourselves to others and to ourselves alike. The research aims at answering the following questions concerning the lives of deaf sign language users: how do deaf people build an image of themselves as deaf people, what kind of meanings does deafness acquire in their lives, and what opportunities do they have to be perceived by others as they feel they are, i.e. to present their true self . In order to answer these questions, the narratives provided by eighteen deaf young adults, aged 25 35, in narrative interviews carried out in sign language, have been analysed. The methodology used is that of a data-based, qualitative analysis and narrative analy-sis. The study follows the lines of prior qualitative research carried out in the field of sociology of health and in the study of everyday life. The subjects are divided into three groups according to the linguistic environment dominant in the family: 1) a deaf child in a deaf family, 2) a deaf child in a hearing family using sign language, and 3) a deaf child in a hearing family where sign language was not used. The childhood family has great significance in the way a child constructs his or her identity as a deaf person. The process of construct-ing an identity in the first group can be defined as being automatic or inherited, in the second group the process can be described as being a collective/joint identity-building process, whereas in the third group the process is ambivalent and delayed. The opportunities the deaf have in building their identi-ties as deaf people have been examined through the concept of a collective story reservoir. Research shows that the deaf have, at least partly, a different collective story reservoir that they can rely on from the one the hearing have. Interaction with other deaf people and access to the collective story reservoir is important, because it enables the deaf to form an idea of their own deafness and the life of a deaf person. Three different ways of understanding deafness can be conceptualized from the narratives of the inter-viewed deaf people. In the outdated counter-narrative and the reductive narrative of deafness as an abnormality, the subjects are not capable of seeing themselves as forming part of the narratives or identifying themselves with the ways the deaf are depicted. Yet, the characterizations prevalent in them are the ones that the deaf constantly come across in their day-to-day lives. The narrative through which the subjects depict themselves and their lives can be defined as a pluralistic narrative. The plu-ralistic narrative consists of three elements: the coexistence of the world of the deaf and that of the hearing, the orientation to sign language, and the replacement of local networks with global networks. Although modern Finnish society and its varied social services and subsidy systems enable the realiza-tion of the kind of life described in the pluralistic narrative, the issues of power and inequality still frequently emerge in the narratives in which the deaf young adults described themselves and their lives. Two kinds of power mechanisms can be perceived in the descriptions: belittling and excluding power. These considerably diminish the opportunities of sign language users to create the kind of life that would reflect their personalities while limiting the chances for presenting the self to others.

Kulutus, tieto, hallinta : Kulutuksen tilastoinnin muutokset 1900-luvun Suomessa

The aim of the study was to find out how the consumption of the population in Finland became a target of social interest and production of statistical data in the early 20th century, and what efforts have been made to influence consumption with social policy measures at different times. Questions concerning consumption are examined through the practices employed in the compilation of statistics on it. The interpretation framework in the study is Michael Foucault s perspective of modern liberal government. This mode of government is typified by pursuit of efficiency and search of equilibrium between economic government and a government of the processes of life. It shows aspirations towards both integration and individualisation. The government is based on freedom practices. It also implies knowledge-based ways of conceptualising reality. Statistical data are of specific significance in this context. The connection between the government of consumption and the compilation of statistics on it is studied through the theoretical, socio-political and statistical conceptualisation of consumption. The research material consisted of Finnish and international documentation on the compilation of statistics on consumption, publications of social programmes, and reports of studies on consumption. The analysis of the material focused especially on the problematisations related to consumption found in these documents and on changes in them over history. There have been both clearly observable changes and as well as historical stratification and diversity in the rationalities and practices of consumption government during the 20th century. Consumption has been influenced by pluralistic government, based at different times and in varying ways on the logics of solidarity and markets. The difference between these is that in the former risks are prepared for collectively while in the latter risks are individualised. Despite the differences, the characteristic that is common to these logics is certain kind of contractuality. They are both permeated by the household logic which differs from them in that it is based on the normative and ethical demands imposed on an individual. There has been a clear interactive connection between statistical data and consumption government. Statistical practices have followed changes in the way consumption has been conceptualised in society. This has been reflected in the statistical phenomena of interest, concepts, classifications and indicators. New ways of compiling statistics have in their turn shaped perceptions of reality. Statistical data have also facilitated a variety of rational calculations with which the consequences of the population s consumption habits have been evaluated at the levels of economy at large and individuals.

Growing up in Affiliation with a Religious Community : A Case Study of Seventh-day Adventist Youth in Finland

This study investigates how the religious community as a socialization context affects the development of young people's religious identity and values, using Finnish Seventh-day Adventism as a context for the case study. The research problem is investigated through the following questions: (1) What aspects support the intergenerational transmission of values and tradition in religious home education? (2) What is the role of social capital and the social networks of the religious community in the religious socialization process? (3) How does the religious composition of the peer group at school (e.g., a denominational school in comparison to a mainstream school) affect these young people s social relations and choices and their religious identity (as challenged versus as reinforced by values at school)? And (4) How do the young people studied negotiate their religious values and religious membership in the diverse social contexts of the society at large? The mixed method study includes both quantitative and qualitative data sets (3 surveys: n=106 young adults, n=100 teenagers, n=55 parents; 2 sets of interviews: n=10 young adults and n=10 teenagers; and fieldwork data from youth summer camps). The results indicate that, in religious home education, the relationship between parents and children, the parental example of a personally meaningful way of life, and encouraging critical thinking in order for young people to make personalized value choices were important factors in socialization. Overall, positive experiences of the religion and the religious community were crucial in providing direction for later choices of values and affiliations. Education that was experienced as either too severe or too permissive was not regarded as a positive influence for accepting similar values and lifestyle choices to those of the parents. Furthermore, the religious community had an important influence on these young people s religious socialization in terms of the commitment to denominational values and lifestyle and in providing them with religious identity and rooting them in the social network of the denomination. The network of the religious community generated important social resources, or social capital, for both the youth and their families, involving both tangible and intangible benefits, and bridging and bonding effects. However, the study also illustrates the sometimes difficult negotiations the youth face in navigating between differentiation and belonging when there is a tension between the values of a minority group and the larger society, and one wants to and does belong to both. It also demonstrates the variety within both the majority and the minority communities in society, as well as the many different ways one can find a personally meaningful way of being an Adventist. In the light of the previous literature about socialization-in-context in an increasingly pluralistic society, the findings were examined at four levels: individual, family, community and societal. These were seen as both a nested structure and as constructing a funnel in which each broader level directs the influences that reach the narrower ones. The societal setting directs the position and operation of religious communities, families and individuals, and the influences that reach the developing children and young people are in many ways directed by societal, communal and family characteristics. These levels are by nature constantly changing, as well as being constructed of different parts, like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, each of which alters in significance: for some negotiations on values and memberships the parental influence may be greater, whereas for others the peer group influences are. Although agency does remain somewhat connected to others, the growing youth are gradually able to take more responsibility for their own choices and their agency plays a crucial role in the process of choosing values and group memberships. Keywords: youth, community, Adventism, socialization, values, identity negotiations

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Paganism, Traditionalism, Nationalism : Narratives of Russian Rodnoverie

The topic of this dissertation is Rodnoverie, a religion that revives pre-Christian Slavic spirituality. Rodnoverie has been noted to be one of the fastest growing new religions in Russia and the aim of the study is to analyse why and how the movement has attained its popularity. First, the analysis asks how Rodnovers themselves explain the revival of ancient Paganism at this particular historical moment. Secondly, these interpretations are reflected in the framework of sociological discussions about contemporary religiosity. The analysis discusses how the Rodnoverie movement corresponds to some tendencies that are considered to characterise late modern religiosity. The primary material of the research is Rodnoverie texts: books, newspapers and electronic articles. The published literature is supplemented by fieldwork material which includes interviews with some Rodnoverie leaders and the author s participant observation of rituals and gatherings. Methodologically, the study draws on a sociological narrative approach that is focused on examining how individuals and groups use narratives to construct their identities and to challenge mainstream discussions and interpretations. The analysis discerns three narratives. The first one of these portrays Rodnoverie as a revival of the native Russian or Slavic religion. The narrative provides a new version of the old Slavophile idea, according to which imitation of the West has misguided Russia and, therefore, Russians should turn to their own tradition. In the second narrative, Rodnoverie is presented as a nature religion that features tolerance and pluralistic values. According to these perceptions, the emergence of Rodnoverie marks the dead-end of the earlier hegemonic universalistic world-views, the mono-ideologies . While the nationalist narrative focuses on Russia s national heritage, the third narrative interprets the tradition in more universal terms as an alternative to modern values and way of life. The main argument of this narrative is that contemporary people have become alienated from nature, their roots and their community. The themes that are discussed in the theoretical literature on late modern religiosity often configure in Rodnovers interpretations either directly or when looked at through an analytical framework. Of the various themes that are addressed in a sociological study of religion the ones that have most relevance for Rodnoverie are the discussions on individualisation, globalisation and secularisation. Rodnoverie reflects such tendencies as the subjectivisation of religion and the modern crisis of authority. The movement also both exemplifies and actively promotes religious pluralisation in Russia.

Valistus suomalaisessa kirjakulttuurissa 1700-luvulla

The dissertation discusses the history of the book and the Enlightenment in Finland by studying the reception and diffusion of eighteenth-century books and by approaching the discourse on the Enlightenment in Finnish source material. The methods used relate to historian Robert Darnton s studies on eighteenth-century print culture and his analyses of the relations between print culture and society. The study is based on diverse eighteenth-century sources: books, pamphlets and dissertations, bibliographies, book auction protocols, parliamentary documents, estate inventory deeds, newspapers, letters, lectures, memoirs and commonplace books. By the end of the eighteenth century, book production had increased and secular literature had begun to challenge the dominance of religious literature. The books of the Enlightenment belonged to the new literature that found its way into Finnish book collections previously dominated by religious literature. Enlightenment literature is not a set selection of books but rather diverse works from different genres. Thus the study introduces a variety of printed material, from philosophical tracts and textbooks to novels and pornography. In the case of books of the Enlightenment, the works of French Voltaire and German Christian Wolff were among the most widely read and circulated books in Finland. First and foremost, the Enlightenment was an era of intellectual debate. These debates carried strong criticism of the prevailing systems of thought. Enlightenment ideas challenged the Lutheran society of Sweden and especially its sense of conformity. Contemporaries saw many of the books of the Enlightenment as vessels of new ideas and criticism. Furthermore, this kind of print material was interpreted as being dangerous for uneducated readers. Belonging to a certain estate and social class had a major impact on individuals reading habits and their acquisition of books. One specific social group stands out in the Finnish source material: the officers at the Sveaborg naval fortress possessed and distributed Enlightenment books more than the members of any other social class. Other essential social groups were scholars, the nobility and the clergy, who took part in debates concerning the ideas and benefits of the Enlightenment. In the Finnish debates at the time, the concept of Enlightenment involved three primary notions. Firstly, it referred to the French philosophers, les philosophes, and to their works as well as to the social changes that took place during the French revolution. It also carried the idea of philosophical light or the light of reason, in a sense similar to Immanuel Kant s writings. Most importantly, it referred to a belief in progress and to a trust in true knowledge that would supercede ignorance and fanaticism. Hence, it is impossible to speak about the Enlightenment era in the Swedish realm without such concepts as reason, benefit or progress. These concepts likewise marked the books of the Enlightenment in eighteenth-century Finland.

Patents, Ethics and Stem Cell Research : The Case of hESC Innovation in Australia, Europe and the United States

Embryonic stem cells offer potentially a ground-breaking insight into health and diseases and are said to offer hope in discovering cures for many ailments unimaginable few years ago. Human embryonic stem cells are undifferentiated, immature cells that possess an amazing ability to develop into almost any body cell such as heart muscle, bone, nerve and blood cells and possibly even organs in due course. This remarkable feature, enabling embryonic stem cells to proliferate indefinitely in vitro (in a test tube), has branded them as a so-called miracle cure . Their potential use in clinical applications provides hope to many sufferers of debilitating and fatal medical conditions. However, the emergence of stem cell research has resulted in intense debates about its promises and dangers. On the one hand, advocates hail its potential, ranging from alleviating and even curing fatal and debilitating diseases such as Parkinson s, diabetes, heart ailments and so forth. On the other hand, opponents decry its dangers, drawing attention to the inherent risks of human embryo destruction, cloning for research purposes and reproductive cloning eventually. Lately, however, the policy battles surrounding human embryonic stem cell innovation have shifted from being a controversial research to scuffles within intellectual property rights. In fact, the ability to obtain patents represents a pivotal factor in the economic success or failure of this new biotechnology. Although, stem cell patents tend to more or less satisfy the standard patentability requirements, they also raise serious ethical and moral questions about the meaning of the exclusions on ethical or moral grounds as found in European and to an extent American and Australian patent laws. At present there is a sort of a calamity over human embryonic stem cell patents in Europe and to an extent in Australia and the United States. This in turn has created a sense of urgency to engage all relevant parties in the discourse on how best to approach patenting of this new form of scientific innovation. In essence, this should become a highly favoured patenting priority. To the contrary, stem cell innovation and its reliance on patent protection risk turmoil, uncertainty, confusion and even a halt on not only stem cell research but also further emerging biotechnology research and development. The patent system is premised upon the fundamental principle of balance which ought to ensure that the temporary monopoly awarded to the inventor equals that of the social benefit provided by the disclosure of the invention. Ensuring and maintaining this balance within the patent system when patenting human embryonic stem cells is of crucial contemporary relevance. Yet, the patenting of human embryonic stem cells raises some fundamental moral, social and legal questions. Overall, the present approach of patenting human embryonic stem cell related inventions is unsatisfactory and ineffective. This draws attention to a specific question which provides for a conceptual framework for this work. That question is the following: how can the investigated patent offices successfully deal with patentability of human embryonic stem cells? This in turn points at the thorny issue of application of the morality clause in this field. In particular, the interpretation of the exclusions on ethical or moral grounds as found in Australian, American and European legislative and judicial precedents. The Thesis seeks to compare laws and legal practices surrounding patentability of human embryonic stem cells in Australia and the United States with that of Europe. By using Europe as the primary case study for lessons and guidance, the central goal of the Thesis then becomes the determination of the type of solutions available to Europe with prospects to apply such to Australia and the United States. The Dissertation purports to define the ethical implications that arise with patenting human embryonic stem cells and intends to offer resolutions to the key ethical dilemmas surrounding patentability of human embryonic stem cells and other morally controversial biotechnology inventions. In particular, the Thesis goal is to propose a functional framework that may be used as a benchmark for an informed discussion on the solution to resolving ethical and legal tensions that come with patentability of human embryonic stem cells in Australian, American and European patent worlds. Key research questions that arise from these objectives and which continuously thread throughout the monograph are: 1. How do common law countries such as Australia and the United States approach and deal with patentability of human embryonic stem cells in their jurisdictions? These practices are then compared to the situation in Europe as represented by the United Kingdom (first two chapters), the Court of Justice of the European Union and the European Patent Office decisions (Chapter 3 onwards) in order to obtain a full picture of the present patenting procedures on the European soil. 2. How are ethical and moral considerations taken into account at patent offices investigated when assessing patentability of human embryonic stem cell related inventions? In order to assess this part, the Thesis evaluates how ethical issues that arise with patent applications are dealt with by: a) Legislative history of the modern patent system from its inception in 15th Century England to present day patent laws. b) Australian, American and European patent offices presently and in the past, including other relevant legal precedents on the subject matter. c) Normative ethical theories. d) The notion of human dignity used as the lowest common denominator for the interpretation of the European morality clause. 3. Given the existence of the morality clause in form of Article 6(1) of the Directive 98/44/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 July 1998 on the legal protection of biotechnological inventions which corresponds to Article 53(a) European Patent Convention, a special emphasis is put on Europe as a guiding principle for Australia and the United States. Any room for improvement of the European morality clause and Europe s current manner of evaluating ethical tensions surrounding human embryonic stem cell inventions is examined. 4. A summary of options (as represented by Australia, the United States and Europe) available as a basis for the optimal examination procedure of human embryonic stem cell inventions is depicted, whereas the best of such alternatives is deduced in order to create a benchmark framework. This framework is then utilised on and promoted as a tool to assist Europe (as represented by the European Patent Office) in examining human embryonic stem cell patent applications. This method suggests a possibility of implementing an institution solution. 5. Ultimately, a question of whether such reformed European patent system can be used as a founding stone for a potential patent reform in Australia and the United States when examining human embryonic stem cells or other morally controversial inventions is surveyed. The author wishes to emphasise that the guiding thought while carrying out this work is to convey the significance of identifying, analysing and clarifying the ethical tensions surrounding patenting human embryonic stem cells and ultimately present a solution that adequately assesses patentability of human embryonic stem cell inventions and related biotechnologies. In answering the key questions above, the Thesis strives to contribute to the broader stem cell debate about how and to which extent ethical and social positions should be integrated into the patenting procedure in pluralistic and morally divided democracies of Europe and subsequently Australia and the United States.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asukkaan Helsinki? : Tapaustutkimus vuorovaikutteisuudesta kaupunkisuunnittelussa

This study examines the interaction between inhabitants and urban planning. In addition to traditional methods of participation there can be seen an increasing need to find new channels and means to influence on one´s environment. Hearing of inhabitants during planning is hoped to decrease the amount of claims and this way to speed up the planning process. Discussion that emphasizes competitiveness and innovativeness in planning has brought out the role of inhabitants as selective consumers and end users. This extension of civil perspective completes the thought of participation in city planning and adds the pressure on developing the interaction and user orientation. The aim of the study is to point out the present situation of inhabitant´s participation and influencing in Helsinki. Helsinki City Planning Department opened a new information and exhibiotion hall called Laituri in 2008. Laituri provides the latest information about planning projects in Helsinki and temporary exhibitions as well as it operates as communication channel and information point for the department. In this study Laituri is examined as a case study of interaction between citizen and planner. The study is divided into two principal themes. The aim is to research action and interactivity at Laituri from the inhabitants´and planners´point of view. The qualitative study has inquiries, interview surveys and observation as research methods. Empiricial data of the study consists of three parts which complement each other: Laituri operational reseach, inquiry directed to the members of Laituri team and interviews of three experts. The aim is to find answers to questions like, does Laituri reach the citizens and will the opportunities to participate improve along Laituri. The study examines also how the local knowledge of inhabitants will come across to planners and further to planning. The study combines discussions of inhabitants´ influencing in Finnish society and science community. Cornerstones of the study are inhabitant participation, interaction and local knowledge in urban planning. The theory behind the study is communicative planning theory. In addition the theory consists of key concepts. The study introduces a concept of Inhabitant´s Helsinki, which reflects the inhabitant as customer-citizen who is an active product developer in participative urban planning. According to the research results the experts of Laituri and majority of inhabitants in Helsinki experience that the inhabitant´s possibilities to participate will improve along Laituri. However half of the citizens in Helsinki believe that local knowledge and ideas will only have minor impact on the final plan. According to city dwellers the present practise used by Helsinki City Planning Department supports only partially adequate interaction. The experts of Laituri experience that the role of Laituri is first of all forum of communication and discussion channel instead of effective local data collector. Based on the results the study introduces a model of inhabitant´s participation field. According to the model Laituri can be seen as phenomenom in Helsinki urban planning which has the elements of network municipality. The planner is more like diplomatic trend-setter and visionary. The inhabitant of Helsinki is an expert in city living and participative producer of local knowledge. Participation methods are increasingly segmented and tailored in every plan and project. The study argues that Inhabitant´s Helsinki is a pluralistic milieu in constant pressure for change. Therefore reaching the everyday life experiencies of inhabintants should be at higher degree in Helsinki City Planning Department´s operations.

La teología de Nicolás de Cusa : un desafío para la elaboración de una teología natural

Resumen: El cardenal Nicolás de Cusa se propuso resolver el impasse que en el campo teológico implica la descalificación que desde el nominalismo se hizo conocimiento metafísico. Fue su particular interpretación de la naturaleza de Dios y su modo de conocerla, la que le permitió fundar una nueva teología con la que pretendía superar las limitaciones de un saber que en su opinión sólo era apto para conocer el orden finito. Para ello propone sustituir la vía de conocimiento racional, por otra de carácter puramente intuitivo, cuyo rasgo esencial es el saber del no saber, esto es, la vía de la “docta ignorancia”. Con lo cual el hombre está en condiciones de alcanzar un tipo de saber de orden místico sólo parangonable con el que se puede alcanzar en la bienaventuranza eterna. Es propósito del presente estudio determinar si, sobre las bases presentadas por el Cusano es posible erigir el saber que conviene a una teología natural, e incluso al de una teología mística.

Liberdade de imprensa e democracia : a atuação da Câmara dos Deputados

This dissertation aims at examining the arguments put forward by federal deputies of Brazil's low chamber regarding media regulation, with a special focus on the debates surrounding the proposal for the Federal Council of Journalism (2004) and the creation of Brazil's Public TV (2007/2008). The arguments used on those occasions fit two conceptions of media democratization: deliberative and liberal-pluralistic. My research shows that deputies tended to follow this latter conception, although I think that their positions in the debate suffered from the lack of debate and information.