Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Formal Power Analysis of Systems-on-Chip

The design methods and languages targeted to modern System-on-Chip designs are facing tremendous pressure of the ever-increasing complexity, power, and speed requirements. To estimate any of these three metrics, there is a trade-off between accuracy and abstraction level of detail in which a system under design is analyzed. The more detailed the description, the more accurate the simulation will be, but, on the other hand, the more time consuming it will be. Moreover, a designer wants to make decisions as early as possible in the design flow to avoid costly design backtracking. To answer the challenges posed upon System-on-chip designs, this thesis introduces a formal, power aware framework, its development methods, and methods to constraint and analyze power consumption of the system under design. This thesis discusses on power analysis of synchronous and asynchronous systems not forgetting the communication aspects of these systems. The presented framework is built upon the Timed Action System formalism, which offer an environment to analyze and constraint the functional and temporal behavior of the system at high abstraction level. Furthermore, due to the complexity of System-on-Chip designs, the possibility to abstract unnecessary implementation details at higher abstraction levels is an essential part of the introduced design framework. With the encapsulation and abstraction techniques incorporated with the procedure based communication allows a designer to use the presented power aware framework in modeling these large scale systems. The introduced techniques also enable one to subdivide the development of communication and computation into own tasks. This property is taken into account in the power analysis part as well. Furthermore, the presented framework is developed in a way that it can be used throughout the design project. In other words, a designer is able to model and analyze systems from an abstract specification down to an implementable specification.

Delivery Reliability: Timely and Quantitative Accuracy in a Forest Industry Company

The primary objective of this thesis was to research delivery reliability of mill business unit of a forest industry company, especially timely and quantitative accuracy of sales orders. Delivery reliability is an important factor of customer satisfaction, which has a great influence for success of a company. The secondary objective was to find out reasons for possible problems of delivery reliability and give propositions for improvable performances. The empirical part of the thesis based on reporting database of the forest industry company’s ERP-software and detailed information of the mill system. The delivery reliability results of the mill business unit were compared to delivery reliability of similar mill business unit inside the forest industry company. The research results expressed problems in the supply chain. The delivery reliability reporting should be also developed further. This would advance delivery reliability monitoring. The improvement propositions of the thesis were logistic operation mode estimation, particular benchmarking of the compared mill business unit and more detailed survey on production delivery reliability.

Design and implementation of a leisure program to improve function and wellbeing in people with depressive disorder

Depression is a major cause of disability and disease with significant costs to the health system and for the whole society. Regarding the treatment, in recent years has questioned the effectiveness of antidepressant drugs, with a recognition that although depressive disorders tend to improve with these treatments, residual symptoms seems to be still the norm, which is associated with the risk of new episodes or relapses, and faster its appearance. Otherwise many of the specialized clinical guidelines, propose a based on stepped-care model intervention, prioritizing less intrusive actions, including low-intensity psychosocial-interventions.

Evaluating End-User Training Effectiveness in ERP System Implementation

Today’s business world demands more and more internal and external integration and transparency among companies at all fields. Integrated ERP (enterprise resource planning) systems offer a possibility to improve business practices and procedures by providing a unified view on the business including all functions and departments. Due to the obvious benefits, the popularity of integrated ERP systems keeps growing. The implementation of ERP systems has however proven risky. The implementation projects tend to be long, extensive, and costly – and often they end up in a failure. Due to the significant task and role changes ERP implementation brings to almost everybody in the company, training has been identified as one of the most critical success factors of an ERP implementation. To ensure that the training is conducted in the most effective and successful manner, the training outcomes should be evaluated. So far, training evaluation has however gained only limited attention at most companies investing in different training programs. Uponor corporation has initiated a large ERP implementation and process harmonization program in 2004. Thousands of end-users have been trained during this project so far, and the work still continues until the project is completed in 2010. In this thesis, the evaluation of end-user training in Uponor’s ERP program is brought further from the current state of performing the basic participant satisfaction survey in the end of each class. The results show that in order to reach reliable training effectiveness evaluation results, not only the reaction towards training but also transfer of skills and attitudes and the final results of the training program should be evaluated.

Optimization and practical implementation of ultrafast 2D NMR experiments

Ultrafast 2D NMR is a powerful methodology that allows recording of a 2D NMR spectrum in a fraction of second. However, due to the numerous non-conventional parameters involved in this methodology its implementation is no trivial task. Here, an optimized experimental protocol is carefully described to ensure efficient implementation of ultrafast NMR. The ultrafast spectra resulting from this implementation are presented based on the example of two widely used 2D NMR experiments, COSY and HSQC, obtained in 0.2 s and 41 s, respectively.

INTERACTIONS: DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION AND EVALUATION OF A COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR TEACHING INTERMOLECULAR FORCES IN HIGHER EDUCATION

Intermolecular forces are a useful concept that can explain the attraction between particulate matter as well as numerous phenomena in our lives such as viscosity, solubility, drug interactions, and dyeing of fibers. However, studies show that students have difficulty understanding this important concept, which has led us to develop a free educational software in English and Portuguese. The software can be used interactively by teachers and students, thus facilitating better understanding. Professors and students, both graduate and undergraduate, were questioned about the software quality and its intuitiveness of use, facility of navigation, and pedagogical application using a Likert scale. The results led to the conclusion that the developed computer application can be characterized as an auxiliary tool to assist teachers in their lectures and students in their learning process of intermolecular forces.

A cross-border VMI to Russia and cultural impacts to the implementation

VMI (Vendor managed inventory) is a collaboration model between a supplier and a customer, where a supplier has the responsibility of the inventory replenishments. The tightened competition forces companies to collaborate, and VMI is a simple method to cooperate. The aim of this study was to create a cross-border VMI model from Finland to Russia in the case company. However, the cultural differences between the countries produce problems and therefore the cultural impacts to the model and implementation were taken into account. This study includes two parts: the first framework consists of operational principles, benefits, risks, criteria and success factors of VMI and the second concentrates on cultural aspects of the process change. As a result, an operating model for case company’s supply chain was created. In addition, the suggestions for avoiding the cultural impacts in the implementation were given.

Project owner’s and outside engineering consultant’s role in power plant implementation projects

The purpose of this study was to investigate the nature of co-operation between a project owner and an outside engineering consultant in combined heat and power plant implementation projects. Moreover, as another focal subject of the study was to familiarize the purchasing behavior of the energy producer and how an outside engineering consultant participated into different stages of the purchasing process. The study was carried out as a multiple case study including altogether six Finnish power plant implementation projects that had been taken into commercial use during 1995 – 2015. By adjusting the findings of empirical interview data and comparing those to the theoretical framework concerning, among others, Finnish energy production, engineering consulting businesses, delivery methods of construction project and finally the purchasing process, it can be concluded that especially in the power plant implementation projects in the past have a great influence to decisions made during the project. The role of the main engineering consultant is to act as an assistant, who helps to achieve the project goals successfully rather than an advisor who only knows how the project should be conducted. At least in these five project cases this was the case, meaning that the final decision power always remaining with project owner.

Agile CRM System Implementation Project

The application of information technology (IT) in customer relationship management (CRM) is growing rapidly as many companies implement CRM systems to support their numerous customer facing activities. However, failure rates of CRM projects remain notably high as they deliver scant solutions and poor user acceptance. As a consequence, it is justified to study previously researched CRM success factors and apply them to CRM system implementation. The aim of this master’s thesis was to get acquainted with relevant academic theories, frameworks and practices concerning CRM and agile development, and use them to generate a modified CRM project strategy to support the successful execution of the case company’s, Process Vision Oy, CRM implementation project. The empirical CRM system implementation project was conducted simultaneously with writing this thesis. Its theoretical findings could be transferred into practice through active participation in the CRM system development and deployment work. The project’s main goal was to produce and take into use a functioning CRM system. The goal was met, since at the time of printing this thesis the first system release was successfully published to its users at Process Vision’s marketing and sales departments. The key success elements in the CRM project were cyclic, iterative system development, customer oriented approach, user inclusion and flexible project management. Implying agile development practices ensured being able to quickly respond to changes arising during the progress of the CRM project. Throughout modelling of the core sales process formed a strong basis, on which the CRM system’s operational and analytical functionalities were built. End users were included in the initial specification of system requirements and they provided feedback on the system’s usage. To conclude, the chosen theoretical CRM roadmaps and agile development practices proved as beneficial in the successful planning and execution of the agile CRM system implementation project at Process Vision.

Design and implementation of a multipurpose reactor for scale-up studies

In the theoretical part, the different polymerisation catalysts are introduced and the phenomena related to mixing in the stirred tank reactor are presented. Also the advantages and challenges related to scale-up are discussed. The aim of the applied part was to design and implement an intermediate-sized reactor useful for scale-up studies. The reactor setting was tested making one batch of Ziegler–Natta polypropylene catalyst. The catalyst preparation with a designed equipment setting succeeded and the catalyst was analysed. The analyses of the catalyst were done, because the properties of the catalyst were compared to the normal properties of Ziegler–Natta polypropylene catalyst. The total titanium content of the catalyst was slightly higher than in normal Ziegler–Natta polypropylene catalyst, but the magnesium and aluminium content of the catalyst were in the normal level. By adjusting the siphonation tube and adding one washing step the titanium content of the catalyst could be decreased. The particle size of the catalyst was small, but the activity was in a normal range. The size of the catalyst particles could be increased by decreasing the stirring speed. During the test run, it was noticed that some improvements for the designed equipment setting could be done. For example more valves for the chemical feed line need to be added to ensure inert conditions during the catalyst preparation. Also nitrogen for the reactor needs to separate from other nitrogen line. With this change the pressure in the reactor can be kept as desired during the catalyst preparation. The proposals for improvements are presented in the applied part. After these improvements are done, the equipment setting is ready for start-up. The computational fluid dynamics model for the designed reactor was provided by cooperation with Lappeenranta University of Technology. The experiments showed that for adequate mixing with one impeller, stirring speed of 600 rpm is needed. The computational fluid dynamics model with two impellers showed that there was no difference in the mixing efficiency if the upper impeller were pumping downwards or upwards.

Sensitive Troponin Assays: Diagnostic and Prognostic Use in Cardiology

Cardiac troponins (cTns) are the recommended biochemical markers in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI). They are very sensitive and tissue-specific but are limited by their delayed appearance in the circulation. Biochemical markers with more rapid release kinetics, e.g. myoglobin and especially heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP), have been used to enhance the early identification of MI. The implementation of cTns into clinical practice has shown that cardiomyocyte injury occurs in many other clinical conditions than MI. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of modern and highly sensitive cTnI assays on the early diagnosis of MI. In a patient cohort with suspected MI, such a sensitive cTnI assay enhanced the early diagnostic accuracy when compared to a less sensitive cTnI assay and to myoglobin. When compared to H-FABP during the early hours after symptom onset, the sensitive cTnI assay showed at least similar and, after 6 hours, superior diagnostic accuracy. A positive cTnI test result had superior prognostic value when compared to H-FABP, even among early presenters. The prognostic value of cTn in acute heart failure (AHF) was evaluated in 364 patients who participated in the FINN-AKVA study. The patients presented with AHF but no acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Up to half of the patients had elevated cTn levels which were associated with higher 6-month mortality. The magnitude of cTn elevation was directly proportional to mortality. Finally, the clinical spectrum of cTnI elevations was evaluated in 991 cTnI positive emergency department (ED) patients. 83% of the patients had MI and 17% had cTnI elevation due to other clinical conditions. The latter patient group was characterized by lower absolute cTnI levels and – importantly – higher in-hospital mortality when compared to the MI patients. In conclusion, the use of a highly sensitive cTnI assay enhances the early diagnostic accuracy and risk stratification in suspected MI patients. Cardiac troponin elevations are highly prevalent also in other acute clinical conditions and indicate an adverse outcome of these patients.

Multilevel converter modulation: implementation and analysis

Multilevel converters provide an attractive solution to bring the benefits of speed-controlled rotational movement to high-power applications. Therefore, multilevel inverters have attracted wide interest in both the academic community and in the industry for the past two decades. In this doctoral thesis, modulation methods suitable especially for series connected H-bridge multilevel inverters are discussed. A concept of duty cycle modulation is presented and its modification is proposed. These methods are compared with other well-known modulation schemes, such as space-vector pulse width modulation and carrier-based modulation schemes. The advantage of the modified duty-cycle modulation is its algorithmic simplicity. A similar mathematical formulation for the original duty cycle modulation is proposed. The modified duty cycle modulation is shown to produce well-formed phase-to-neutral voltages that have lower total harmonic distortion than the space-vector pulse width modulation and the duty cycle modulation. The space-vector-based solution and the duty cycle modulation, on the other hand, result in a better-quality line-to-line voltage and current waveform. The voltage of the DC links in the modules of the series-connected H-bridge inverter are shown to fluctuate while they are under load. The fluctuation causes inaccuracies in the voltage production, which may result in a failure of the flux estimator in the controller. An extension for upper-level modulation schemes, which changes the switching instants of the inverter so that the output voltage meets the reference voltage accurately regardless of the DC link voltages, is proposed. The method is shown to reduce the error to a very low level when a sufficient switching frequency is used. An appropriate way to organize the switching instants of the multilevel inverter is to make only one-level steps at a time. This causes restrictions on the dynamical features of the modulation schemes. The produced voltage vector cannot be rotated several tens of degrees in a single switching period without violating the above-mentioned one-level-step rule. The dynamical capabilities of multilevel inverters are analyzed in this doctoral thesis, and it is shown that the multilevel inverters are capable of operating even in dynamically demanding metal industry applications. In addition to the discussion on modulation schemes, an overvoltage in multilevel converter drives caused by cable reflection is addressed. The voltage reflection phenomenon in drives with long feeder cables causes premature insulation deterioration and also affects the commonmode voltage, which is one of the main reasons for bearing currents. Bearing currents, on the other hand, cause fluting in the bearings, which results in premature bearing failure. The reflection phenomenon is traditionally prevented by filtering, but in this thesis, a modulationbased filterless method to mitigate the overvoltage in multilevel drives is proposed. Moreover, the mitigation method can be implemented as an extension for upper-level modulation schemes. The method exploits the oscillations caused by two consecutive voltage edges so that the sum of the oscillations results in a mitigated peak of the overvoltage. The applicability of the method is verified by simulations together with experiments with a full-scale prototype.