Discussion of “Generalized estimating equations: Notes on the choice of the working correlation matrix”

Objective To discuss generalized estimating equations as an extension of generalized linear models by commenting on the paper of Ziegler and Vens "Generalized Estimating Equations. Notes on the Choice of the Working Correlation Matrix". Methods Inviting an international group of experts to comment on this paper. Results Several perspectives have been taken by the discussants. Econometricians have established parallels to the generalized method of moments (GMM). Statisticians discussed model assumptions and the aspect of missing data Applied statisticians; commented on practical aspects in data analysis. Conclusions In general, careful modeling correlation is encouraged when considering estimation efficiency and other implications, and a comparison of choosing instruments in GMM and generalized estimating equations, (GEE) would be worthwhile. Some theoretical drawbacks of GEE need to be further addressed and require careful analysis of data This particularly applies to the situation when data are missing at random.

A modified pseudolikelihood approach for analysis of longitudinal data

We consider the analysis of longitudinal data when the covariance function is modeled by additional parameters to the mean parameters. In general, inconsistent estimators of the covariance (variance/correlation) parameters will be produced when the "working" correlation matrix is misspecified, which may result in great loss of efficiency of the mean parameter estimators (albeit the consistency is preserved). We consider using different "Working" correlation models for the variance and the mean parameters. In particular, we find that an independence working model should be used for estimating the variance parameters to ensure their consistency in case the correlation structure is misspecified. The designated "working" correlation matrices should be used for estimating the mean and the correlation parameters to attain high efficiency for estimating the mean parameters. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed algorithm performs very well. We also applied different estimation procedures to a data set from a clinical trial for illustration.

Andegraund : Istorija i mify leningradskoj neoficial'noj literatury

The history of the Leningrad underground is one of the key themes of late socialism. Samizdat, "black humour", religious syncretism, dissidence, apolitical bohemianism, the pathos of freedom of individuality and the mechanics of literature are closely interlinked with the cultural mythology of this passed epoch. Describing conceptions that, when taken together, form the contemporary understanding of unofficial culture, the author creates a historical portrait of this environment. Amongst the central figures here, there are well-known writers (Bitov, Brodsky, Dovlatov, Khvostenko, Krivulin) and literary activists who still await recognition. The analysis of works, many of which were only distributed in typewritten publications in the 1960s-1980s, gives a preliminary definition of the key factors that united the authors of the unofficial community. The book begins with a critique of the identification of the Soviet underground with political dissidence or with a society living in autonomous independence with regard to the state. Describing the historical development of the various names for this environment (the underground, samizdat, unofficial culture, podpolie and others), the author follows the genesis of the community from its appearance, in the years of "the Thaw", through to perestroika, when it dissolved. Taking the history of the publication of Bitov's "The Pushkin House" as an example, the concept of the unofficial is interpreted as a risky interaction with the authorities. Unofficial culture is then viewed as a late Soviet reflection of the Western underground in the 1950s-1960s. Unlike the radical-utopian-anarchistic source, it proclaimed a liberalist and democratic ideology in the context of the destruction of the socialist utopia. The historical portrait of the community is built up from the perceptions of its members regarding literature practice and rhetorical approaches, with the aid of which these perceptions are expressed. Taking typewritten publications as source material, four main representations are given: privacy, deviancy, criticism and irrationality. An understanding of literature as a private affair, neo-avant-garde deviancy in social and literary behaviour and the pathos of the critical relationship with officialdom and irrational message of literary work, comprise the basis for the worldview of unofficial authors, as well as the poetic system, genre preferences and dictums. An analysis of irrationality, based on the texts of Khvostenko and Bogdanov, leads to a review of the cultural mythologies that were crucial to the unofficial conception of the absurd. Absurd is an homonym. It contains ideas that are important for the worldview of unofficial authors and the poetics of their works. The irrationality of the Soviet order is reflected in the documentary nature of the satirical prose of Dovlatov. The existential absurd of Camus is perceived here as the pointlessness of social realities and the ontological alienation of man, while existentialist practices for consciousness in the "atmosphere of absurd" remain bracketed off. The third homonym of absurd - the conception of reality as an illusion - is a clear demonstration of religious syncretism, where neo-Christian ideas are interweaved with a modernized version of Hinduism, as taken from Rolland s books on Ramakrishna and Vivekananda. The unofficial community was influenced by the ideology of westernization. Even "the East" arrived here via French retellings and accounts. As a whole, unofficial Leningrad culture can be understood as a neo-modernist phenomenon which, unlike the western neo-modernism of the 1940s and 1950s, arose in the years of the Thaw and ended its existence in the mid-1980s.

Given and News : Media discourse and the construction of community on national days

National anniversaries such as independence days demand precise coordination in order to make citizens change their routines to forego work and spend the day at rest or at festivities that provide social focus and spectacle. The complex social construction of national days is taken for granted and operates as a given in the news media, which are the main agents responsible for coordinating these planned disruptions of normal routines. This study examines the language used in the news to construct the rather unnatural idea of national days and to align people in observing them. The data for the study consist of news stories about the Fourth of July in the New York Times, sampled over 150 years and are supplemented by material from other sources and other countries. The study is multidimensional, applying concepts from pragmatics (speech acts, politeness, information structure), systemic functional linguistics (the interpersonal metafunction and the Appraisal framework) and cognitive linguistics (frames, metaphor) as well as journalism and communications to arrive at an interdisciplinary understanding of how resources for meaning are used by writers and readers of the news stories. The analysis shows that on national anniversaries, nations tend to be metaphorized as persons having birthdays, to whom politeness should be shown. The face of the nation is to be respected in the sense of identifying the nation's interests as one's own (positive face) and speaking of citizen responsibilities rather than rights (negative face). Resources are available for both positive and negative evaluations of events and participants and the newspaper deftly changes footings (Goffman 1981) to demonstrate the required politeness while also heteroglossically allowing for a certain amount of disattention and even protest - within limits, for state holidays are almost never construed as Bakhtinian festivals, as they tend to reaffirm the hierarchy rather than invert it. Celebrations are evaluated mainly for impressiveness, and for the essentially contested quality of appropriateness, which covers norms of predictability, size, audience response, aesthetics, and explicit reference to the past. Events may also be negatively evaluated as dull ("banal") or inauthentic ("hoopla"). Audiences are evaluated chiefly in terms of their enthusiasm, or production of appropriate displays for emotional response, for national days are supposed to be occasions of flooding-out of nationalistic feeling. By making these evaluations, the newspaper reinforces its powerful position as an independent critic, while at the same time playing an active role in the construction and reproduction of emotional order embodied in "the nation's birthday." As an occasion for mobilization and demonstrations of power, national days may be seen to stand to war in the relation of play to fighting (Bateson 1955). Evidence from the newspaper's coverage of recent conflicts is adduced to support this analysis. In the course of the investigation, methods are developed for analyzing large collections of newspaper content, particularly topical soft news and feature materials that have hitherto been considered less influential and worthy of study than so-called hard news. In his work on evaluation in newspaper stories, White (1998) proposed that the classic hard news story is focused on an event that threatens the social order, but news of holidays and celebrations in general does not fit this pattern, in fact its central event is a reproduction of the social order. Thus in the system of news values (Galtung and Ruge 1965), national holiday news draws on "ground" news values such as continuity and predictability rather than "figure" news values such as negativity and surprise. It is argued that this ground helps form a necessary space for hard news to be seen as important, similar to the way in which the information structure of language is seen to rely on the regular alternation of given and new information (Chafe 1994).

Matti Laurila : Jääkäriupseeri, suojeluskuntapäällikkö, rintamakomentaja

Matti Laurila (1895 1983) This is a biographical research of a Jaeger officer, a Civil Guard Chief, a Field Commander Matti Laurila. A broader practice of qualitative methods was utilized in the research. The main aim is a permanent reconstruction and reinterpretation of past events through the experiences of the study object. The life and times of Laurila are intertwined with the crucial events that led to the Finnish Declaration of Independence. Afterwards he helped to ensure that the young republic also stayed independent. As a Jaeger in the winter of 1917 Laurila witnessed an incident he would never forget. After disobeying a direct order, Sven Saarikoski from Lapua was shot dead by his commanding officer, K. A. Ståhlberg, on the ice of the river Aa. Laurila faced the horrors of war at closer quarters, for he lost his father and his brother in the battle of Länkipohja on 16th March 1918. This battle was a major turning point for Laurila and profoundly influenced the rest of his life. The relationship between Laurila and his superiors was problematic almost throughout his military career, haunted as he was by the memory of Sven Saarikoski's execution and the losses in Länkipohja The position of Laurila as an authority in South Ostrobothnia was a key factor in preventing the extreme right from rallying enough Civil Guard troops to escalate the embryonic Mäntsälä rebellion of 1932. After the rebellion Laurila routinely opposed anything he saw as a threat to the independence of the Civil Guard. He would flatly refuse to even consider the integration of the Civil Guard into the national defence force. His uncompromising stand in this matter annoyed some among the higher ranking officers. After the Winter War Laurila got himself into a dispute with Jaeger Colonel H. E. Hannuksela that would have long-lasting consequences. The conflicts between them became widely known in the attack phase of the Continuation War in 1941 at the latest. Laurila had to give up his military career at the end of 1944. In the years that followed he did what he could to ensure that the South Ostrobothnia Civil Guard patrimony remained in the province. Laurila's position as a respected authority in South Ostrobothnia remained unchanged until his death.

Isänmaa ja Ranska : Suomalainen frankofilia 1880-1914

In Finland the period 1880 -1914 constituted an essential phase in the creation of the great national project as well as it was a golden time of Francophilia. With Francophilia, i.e. French-mindedness, is here understood a collectively upheld strong sympathy towards France and French culture. However, the Francophilia of late nineteenth century Finland was free from apparent political intentions and remained a chosen disposition. The strength of its drive was not only based on the older European admiration of everything French, but also on the growing fascination for a novelty emerging besides the traditional influences of the Germanic culture. In Finnish society Francophilia mostly worked as an opposite force to the most confined conceptions of what was considered national ; as a consequence France came to denote more than a country and Francophilia contained an important symbolical meaning in the construction of the Finnish nation. The main tasks of the study are to introduce as the first large historical presentation of the subject a covering examination of the many descriptions of Paris-phases of assorted artists, authors, and intellectuals, to clarify the mental relationship of the Finnish intelligentsia to France prior to national independence, and finally to provide these developments with case studies of certain life paths. However, the examination is not biographical, because the starting point remains within the rhetoric arguments of Francophilia and patriotism as these appeared within the public sphere. Historical persons have thus been dealt with primarily as reflectors of the then-current French-minded mentality. Such Francophiles in Finland were first and foremost Werner Söderhjelm, Juhani Aho, L. Onerva and V. A. Koskenniemi. The networks of the Finnish cultural field are mostly displayed through these examples. In previous research the intensive relationship of Finnish artists and authors with France has not been connected with actual concepts of nationalism. The respective periods of the intellectuals in Paris have simply been viewed as devoid of ideological links with the contemporary advancement of the fatherland, or even as opposites to the patriotic pursuits in Finland. From the viewpoint of this study these now canonized creators of a Finnish culture are primarily seen as patriots and fellow countrymen, and only secondly as artists and artist s colleagues. The dissertation is constructed as both a regional survey of the idealization of France and a study of Finnish history through the mirror of Francophilia. As such France only held an instrumental role for the receiving culture, i.e. for the construction of Finland, as no "objective truths" were sought for in France. Keywords: France, francophilia, Finnishness, national project, Paris

Truth, Proof and Gödelian Arguments : A Defence of Tarskian Truth in Mathematics

One of the most fundamental questions in the philosophy of mathematics concerns the relation between truth and formal proof. The position according to which the two concepts are the same is called deflationism, and the opposing viewpoint substantialism. In an important result of mathematical logic, Kurt Gödel proved in his first incompleteness theorem that all consistent formal systems containing arithmetic include sentences that can neither be proved nor disproved within that system. However, such undecidable Gödel sentences can be established to be true once we expand the formal system with Alfred Tarski s semantical theory of truth, as shown by Stewart Shapiro and Jeffrey Ketland in their semantical arguments for the substantiality of truth. According to them, in Gödel sentences we have an explicit case of true but unprovable sentences, and hence deflationism is refuted. Against that, Neil Tennant has shown that instead of Tarskian truth we can expand the formal system with a soundness principle, according to which all provable sentences are assertable, and the assertability of Gödel sentences follows. This way, the relevant question is not whether we can establish the truth of Gödel sentences, but whether Tarskian truth is a more plausible expansion than a soundness principle. In this work I will argue that this problem is best approached once we think of mathematics as the full human phenomenon, and not just consisting of formal systems. When pre-formal mathematical thinking is included in our account, we see that Tarskian truth is in fact not an expansion at all. I claim that what proof is to formal mathematics, truth is to pre-formal thinking, and the Tarskian account of semantical truth mirrors this relation accurately. However, the introduction of pre-formal mathematics is vulnerable to the deflationist counterargument that while existing in practice, pre-formal thinking could still be philosophically superfluous if it does not refer to anything objective. Against this, I argue that all truly deflationist philosophical theories lead to arbitrariness of mathematics. In all other philosophical accounts of mathematics there is room for a reference of the pre-formal mathematics, and the expansion of Tarkian truth can be made naturally. Hence, if we reject the arbitrariness of mathematics, I argue in this work, we must accept the substantiality of truth. Related subjects such as neo-Fregeanism will also be covered, and shown not to change the need for Tarskian truth. The only remaining route for the deflationist is to change the underlying logic so that our formal languages can include their own truth predicates, which Tarski showed to be impossible for classical first-order languages. With such logics we would have no need to expand the formal systems, and the above argument would fail. From the alternative approaches, in this work I focus mostly on the Independence Friendly (IF) logic of Jaakko Hintikka and Gabriel Sandu. Hintikka has claimed that an IF language can include its own adequate truth predicate. I argue that while this is indeed the case, we cannot recognize the truth predicate as such within the same IF language, and the need for Tarskian truth remains. In addition to IF logic, also second-order logic and Saul Kripke s approach using Kleenean logic will be shown to fail in a similar fashion.

Visions of Past Glory: Nationalism and the Construction of Early Finnish History

The study is an examination of how the distant national past has been conceived and constructed for Finland from the mid-sixteenth century to the Second World War. The author argues that the perception and need of a national 'Golden Age' has undergone several phases during this period, yet the perceived Greatness of the Ancient Finns has been of great importance for the growth and development of the fundamental concepts of Finnish nationalism. It is a question reaching deeper than simply discussing the Kalevala or the Karelianism of the 1890s. Despite early occurrences of most of the topics the image-makers could utilize for the construction of an Ancient Greatness, a truly national proto-history only became a necessity after 1809, when a new conceptual 'Finnishness' was both conceived and brought forth in reality. In this process of nation-building, ethnic myths of origin and descent provided the core of the nationalist cause - the defence of a primordial national character - and within a few decades the antiquarian issue became a standard element of the nationalist public enlightenment. The emerging, archaeologically substantiated, nationhood was more than a scholarly construction: it was a 'politically correct' form of ethnic self-imaging, continuously adapting its message to contemporary society and modern progress. Prehistoric and medieval Finnishness became even more relevant for the intellectual defence of the nation during the period of Russian administrative pressure 1890-1905. With independence the origins of Finnishness were militarized even further, although the 'hot' phase of antiquarian nationalism ended, as many considered the Finnish state reestablished after centuries of 'dependency'. Nevertheless, the distant past of tribal Finnishness and the conceived Golden Age of the Kalevala remained obligating. The decline of public archaeology is quite evident after 1918, even though the national message of the antiquarian pursuits remained present in the history culture of the public. The myths, symbols, images, and constructs of ancient Finnishness had already become embedded in society by the turn of the century, like the patalakki cap, which remains a symbol of Finnishness to this day. The method of approach is one of combining a broad spectrum of previously neglected primary sources, all related to history culture and the subtle banalization of the distant past: school books, postcards, illustrations, festive costumes, drama, satirical magazines, novels, jewellery, and calendars. Tracing the origins of the national myths to their original contexts enables a rather thorough deconstruction of the proto-historical imaginary in this Finnish case study. Considering Anthony D. Smith's idea of ancient 'ethnies' being the basis for nationalist causes, the author considers such an approach in the Finnish case totally misplaced.

Moderneja ryijyjä, metritavaraa ja käsityötä : Tekstiilitaide ja nykyaikaistuva taideteollisuus Suomessa maailmansotien välisenä aikana

Modern ryijys, fabric by the yard and handicrafts. Finnish textile art and modernizing applied art during the inter-war years Textile art was in the 1920s and 1930s in the front rank of Finnish applied art and design. Modern ryijys, tapestries and fabrics by the yard by contemporary textile artists were on show in Finland and abroad. Textile art had also become interesting commercially, especially in interior textiles of modern homes. The research uses sources of the Ornamo Association of Decorative Artists, for example the Ornamo year books published from 1927, the Finnish Society of Crafts and Design and the country s only school of applied arts, the Central School of Arts and Crafts and the Museum of Applied Arts maintained by the society and also the national specialist organisation the Friends of Finnish Handicraft. It also refers to the magazines Käsiteollisuus and Kotiliesi. The art historical dissertation studies the renaissance of weaving art of the inter-war years in Finland. It problematizes the relation of the succesfull and appreciated textile art to the concept of breakthrough of Modernism (Functionalism). With the material from textile artists activities it questions the prevailing idea of slow modernization of Finnish applied art and design and challenges the polarization of craft and industry in the discourses of Modernisms of design. The public discussions about modernization of design and applied art where textile art and especially the ryijy got sometimes into difficult positions are interpreted as power struggles. After taking independence in 1917 the Finnish tradition of ryijy rugs was set as a symbol of the original culture of the young nation. The research studies the development of the so called art ryijy and the notions and meanings of hand weaving in the national context and also in relation to contemporary events in international applied art and design. It highlights the continuity of hand crafted production of textiles and the strong position of textile artists working in this field. The research opens new perspectives to Finnish textile artists by showing their activities as entrepreneurs in their own weaving studios or design studios and referring to their many relations and functions as pattern designers and educators in the growing handicraft industries.

Kirjan tie lukijalle : Kirjakauppojen vakiintuminen Suomessa 1740 - 1860

Books Paths to Readers describes the history of the origins and consolidation of modern and open book stores in Finland 1740 1860. The thesis approaches the book trade as a part of a print culture. Instead of literary studies choice to concentrate on texts and writers, book history seeks to describe the print culture of a society and how the literary activities and societies interconnect. For book historians, printed works are creations of various individuals and groups: writers, printers, editors, book sellers, censors, critics and finally, readers. They all take part in the creation, delivery and interpretation of printed works. The study reveals the ways selling and distributing books have influenced the printed works and the literary and print culture. The research period 1740 1860 covers the so-called second revolution of the book, or the modernisation of the print culture. The thesis describes the history of 60 book stores and their 96 owners. The study concentrates on three themes: firstly, how the particular book trade network became a central institution for printed works distribution, secondly what were the relations between cosmopolitan European book markets and the national cultural sphere, and thirdly how book stores functioned as cultural institutions and business enterprises. Book stores that have a varied assortment and are targeted to all readers became the main institution for book trade in Finland during 1740 1860. It happened because of three features. First, the book binders monopoly on selling bound copies in Sweden was abolished in 1740s. As a consequence entrepreneurs could concentrate solely to trade activities and offer copies from various publishers at their stores. Secondly the common business model of bartering was replaced by selling copies for cash, first in the German book trade centre Leipzig in 1770s. The change intensified book markets activities and Finnish book stores foreign connections. Thirdly, after Finland was annexed to the Russian empire in 1809, the Grand duchy s administration steered foreign book trade to book stores (because of censorship demands). Up to 1830 s book stores were available only in Helsinki and Turku. During next ten years book stores opened in six regional centres. The early entrepreneurs ran usually vertical businesses consisting of printing, publishing and distribution activities. This strategy lowered costs, eased the delivery of printed works and helped to create elaborated centres for all book activities. These book stores main clientele consisted of the Swedish speaking gentry. During late 1840s various opinion leaders called for the development of a national Finnish print culture, and also book stores. As a result, during the five years before the beginning of the Crimean war (1853 1856) book stores were opened in almost all Finnish towns: at the beginning of the war 36 book stores operated in 21 towns. The later book sellers, mainly functioning in small towns among Finnish speaking people, settled usually strictly for selling activities. Book stores received most of their revenues from selling foreign titles. Swedish, German, French and Belgian (pirate editions of popular French novels) books were widely available for the multilingual gentry. Foreign titles and copies brought in most of the revenues. Censorship inspections or unfavourable custom fees would not limit the imports. Even if the local Finnish print production steadily rose, many copies, even titles, were never delivered via book stores. Only during the 1840 s and 1850 s the most advanced publishers would concentrate on creating publishing programmes and delivering their titles via book stores. Book sellers regulated commissions were small. They got even smaller because of large amounts of unsold copies, various and usual misunderstandings of consignments and accounts or plain accidents that destroyed shipments and warehouses. Also, the cultural aim of a creating large and assortments and the tendency of short selling periods demanded professional entrepreneurship, which many small town book sellers however lacked. In the midst of troublesome business efforts, co-operation and mutual concern of the book market s entrepreneurs were the key elements of the trade, although on local level book sellers would compete, sometimes even ferociously. The difficult circumstances (new censorship decree of 1850, Crimean war) and lack of entrepreneurship, experience and customers meant that half of the book stores opened in 1845 1860 was shut in less than five years. In 1858 the few leading publishers established The Finnish Book Publishers Association. Its first task was to create new business rules and manners for the book trade. The association s activities began to professionalise the whole network, but at the same time the earlier independence of regional publishing and selling enterprises diminished greatly. The consolidation of modern and open book store network in Finland is a history of a slow and complex development without clear signs of a beginning or an end. The ideal book store model was rarely accomplished in its all features. Nevertheless, book stores became the norm of the book trade. They managed to offer larger selections, reached larger clienteles and maintained constant activity better than any other book distribution model. In essential, the book stores methods have not changed up to present times.

Muscular activity and fatigue in lower-limb and trunk muscles during different sit-to-stand tests

Sit-to-stand (STS) tests measure the ability to get up from a chair, reproducing an important component of daily living activity. As this functional task is essential for human independence, STS performance has been studied in the past decades using several methods, including electromyography. The aim of this study was to measure muscular activity and fatigue during different repetitions and speeds of STS tasks using surface electromyography in lower-limb and trunk muscles. This cross-sectional study recruited 30 healthy young adults. Average muscle activation, percentage of maximum voluntary contraction, muscle involvement in motion and fatigue were measured using surface electrodes placed on the medial gastrocnemius (MG), biceps femoris (BF), vastus medialis of the quadriceps (QM), the abdominal rectus (AR), erector spinae (ES), rectus femoris (RF), soleus (SO) and the tibialis anterior (TA). Five-repetition STS, 10-repetition STS and 30-second STS variants were performed. MG, BF, QM, ES and RF muscles showed differences in muscle activation, while QM, AR and ES muscles showed significant differences in MVC percentage. Also, significant differences in fatigue were found in QM muscle between different STS tests. There was no statistically significant fatigue in the BF, MG and SO muscles of the leg although there appeared to be a trend of increasing fatigue. These results could be useful in describing the functional movements of the STS test used in rehabilitation programs, notwithstanding that they were measured in healthy young subjects.

Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: An integrated modelling approach in maize.

Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.

Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.

"Ei vittu, mennään röökille" : tutkimus sitaattien tehtävistä ja tekemisestä kaunokirjallis-journalistisissa lehtijutuissa

This research deals with direct speech quotations in magazine articles through two questions: As my major research question, I study the functions of speech quotations based on a data consisting of six literary-journalistic magazine articles. My minor research question builds on the fact that there is no absolute relation between the sound waves of the spoken language and the graphemes of the written one. Hence, I study the general thoughts on how utterances should be arranged in the written form based on a large review of literature and textbooks on journalistic writing as well as interviews I have made with magazine writers and editors, and the Council of Mass Media in Finland. To support my main research questions, I also examine the reference system of the Finnish language, define the aspects of the literary-journalistic article and study vernacular cues in written speech quotations. FUNCTIONS OF QUOTATIONS. I demonstrate the results of my analysis with a six-pointed apparatus. It is a continuum which extends from the structural level of text, all the way through the explicit functions, to the implicit functions of the quotation. The explicit functions deal with the question of what is the content, whereas the implicit ones base mainly on the question how the content is presented. 1. The speech quotation is an distinctive element in the structure of the magazine article. Thereby it creates a rhythm for the text, such as episodes, paragraphs and clauses. 2. All stories are told through a plot, and in magazine articles, the speech quotations are one of the narrative elements that propel the plot forward. 3. The speech quotations create and intensify the location written in the story. This location can be a physical one but also a social one, in which case it describes the atmosphere and mood in the physical environment and of the story characters. 4. The quotations enhance the plausibility of the facts and assumptions presented in the article, and moreover, when a text is placed between quotation marks, the reader can be assured that the text has been reproduced in the authentic verbatim way. 5. Speech quotations tell about the speaker's unique way of using language and the first-hand experiences of the person quoted. 6. The sixth function of speech quotations is probably the most essential one: the quotations characterize the quoted speaker. In other words, in addition to the propositional content of the utterance, the way in which it has been said transmits a lot of the speaker's character (e.g. nature, generation, behaviour, education, attitudes etc.). It is important to notice, that these six functions of my speech quotation apparatus do not exlude one another. It means that every speech quotation basically includes all of the functions discussed above. However, in practice one or more of them have a principal role, while the others play a subsidiary role. HOW TO MAKE QUOTATIONS? It is not suprising that the field of journalism (textbooks, literature and interviews) holds heterogeneous and unestablished thoughts on how the spoken language should be arranged in written quotations, which is my minor research question. However, the most frequent and distinctive aspects can be depicted in a couple of words: serve the reader and respect the target person. Very common advice on how to arrange the quotations is − firstly, to delete such vernacular cues (e.g. repetitions and ”expletives”) that are common in spoken communication, but purposeless in the written language. − secondly, to complete the phonetic word forms of the spoken language into a more reader-friendly form (esim. punanen → punainen, 'red'), and − thirdly, to enhance the independence of clauses from the (authentic) context and to toughen reciprocal links between them. According to the knowledge of the journalistic field, utterances recorded in different points in time of an interview or a data-collecting session can be transferred as consecutive quotations or even merged together. However, if there is any temporal-spatial location written in the story, the dialogue of the story characters should also be situated in an authentic context – chronologically in the right place in the continuum of the events. To summarize, the way in which the utterances should be arranged into written speech quotations is always situationally-specific − and it is strongly based on the author's discretion.

A comparison of mark-recapture distance-sampling methods applied to aerial surveys of eastern grey kangaroos

Aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) in Queensland are used to make economically important judgements on the levels of viable commercial harvest. Previous analysis methods for aerial kangaroo surveys have used both mark-recapture methodologies and conventional distance-sampling analyses. Conventional distance sampling has the disadvantage that detection is assumed to be perfect on the transect line, while mark-recapture methods are notoriously sensitive to problems with unmodelled heterogeneity in capture probabilities. We introduce three methodologies for combining together mark-recapture and distance-sampling data, aimed at exploiting the strengths of both methodologies and overcoming the weaknesses. Of these methods, two are based on the assumption of full independence between observers in the mark-recapture component, and this appears to introduce more bias in density estimation than it resolves through allowing uncertain trackline detection. Both of these methods give lower density estimates than conventional distance sampling, indicating a clear failure of the independence assumption. The third method, termed point independence, appears to perform very well, giving credible density estimates and good properties in terms of goodness-of-fit and percentage coefficient of variation. Estimated densities of eastern grey kangaroos range from 21 to 36 individuals km-2, with estimated coefficients of variation between 11% and 14% and estimated trackline detection probabilities primarily between 0.7 and 0.9.