Added Value of Combining Value and Momentum Indicators in the Swiss Stock Market

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the added value of combining value and momentum indicators in the Swiss stock exchange. Value indicators employed are P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/CF, P/B ja P/S. Momentum indicators examined are 52-week high, acceleration rate, 12-month past return and 6-month past return. The thesis examines whether the composite value measures based on the above mentioned ratios can add value and whether the inclusion of momentum can further improve the risk return profile of the value portfolios. The data is gathered from the Swiss equity market during the sample period from May 2001 to May 2011. Previous studies have shown that composite value measures can somewhat add value to the value portfolio strategy. Similarly, recent academic literature have found evidence that momentum works well as a timing indicator for time to entry to value stocks. This study indicates that the added value of composite value measures exists. It also shows that momentum combined to acceleration rate can significantly improve the risk adjusted performance of value-only portfolios.

DYNAMICS OF LEAF FALL FROM RIPARIAN VEGETATION AND THE ACCUMULATION IN BENTHIC STOCK IN NEOTROPICAL STREAMS1

ABSTRACT Considering the importance of the riparian vegetation leaves as an energetic source to first order streams, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the leaf biomass contribution to the system and its temporal dynamics. With this purpose, monthly samples from July 2008 to June 2009 were collected using four sampling devices installed in three streams, in order to collect the vertical, lateral and terrestrial loads, and the benthic stock. We tested the following hypothesis: (1) leaf biomass input is higher after hydric stress periods; and (2) benthic stock biomass increase with higher loads from vertical and lateral entrances. Leaves represented 71.9% (on average) of all sampled allochthonous matter, with seasonal significant variation along the studied year. Peaks of leaf input were registered in September-October, after an increase in rainfall, and also in January, after a decrease in rainfall. Leaf input was higher in the lateral load.

SOIL ORGANIC CARBON, CARBON STOCK AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS TO PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES UNDER FOREST SOILS IN CENTRAL AMAZONIA

ABSTRACT The soil carbon under Amazonian forests has an important roles in global changing, making information on the soil content and depths of these stocks are considerable interest in efforts to quantify soil carbon emissions to the atmosphere.This study quantified the content and soil organic carbon stock under primary forest up to 2 m depth, at different topographic positions, at Cuieiras Biological Reserve, Manaus/ ZF2, km 34, in the Central Amazon, evaluating the soil attributes that may influence the permanence of soil carbon. Soil samples were collected along a transect of 850 m on topographic gradient Oxisol (plateau), Ultisol (slope) and Spodosol (valley). The stocks of soil carbon were obtained by multiplying the carbon content, soil bulk density and trickiness of soil layers. The watershed was delimited by using STRM and IKONOS images and the carbon contend obtained in the transects was extrapolated as a way to evaluate the potential for carbon stocks in an area of 2678.68 ha. The total SOC was greater in Oxisol followed by Spodosol and Ultisol. It was found direct correlations between the SOC and soil physical attributes. Among the clay soils (Oxisol and Ultisol), the largest stocks of carbon were observed in Oxisol at both the transect (90 to 175.5 Mg C ha-1) as the level of watershed (100.2 to 195.2 Mg C ha-1). The carbon stocks under sandy soil (Spodosol) was greater to clay soils along the transect (160-241 Mg C ha-1) and near them in the Watershed (96.90 to 146.01 Mg C ha-1).

Huolto– ja kunnossapitoliiketoiminnan tuotteistaminen

Tässä diplomityössä pyritään selvittämään, mitä kaikkea huolto– ja unnossapitosopimuksiin perustuvan liiketoiminnan tuotteistamiselta vaaditaan. Kyseisiä palveluita halutaan markkinoida uusien kerrosleiju–teknologiaan (BFB) perustuvien voimakattilatoimitusten yhteydessä. Diplomityön kirjallisessa osiossa asiaa tutkitaan ensin palveluliiketoimintaan ja tuotteistamiseen liittyvien seikkojen näkökulmasta sekä esitellään kunnossapidon teoriaa ja eri strategiakonsepteja sekä tunnuslukuja. Tutkimuksen empiirisessä osassa luodaan toimintamalli huolto– ja kunnossapitosopimuksia varten. Toimintamallissa pyritään löytämään laitekohtaisesti optimaalinen kunnossapitostrategia soveltaen RCM–menetelmään eli luotettavuuskeskistä kunnossapitotapaa. Käytettäviä kunnossapitostrategioita ovat parantava, ennakoiva, kuntoon perustuva ja korjaava kunnossapito. Optimoinnin päämäärä on saavuttaa mahdollisimman korkea tuotantovarmuus kustannustehokkaasti. Lisäksi työssä arvioidaan eri kunnossapitoresurssien tarve ensimmäisen kymmenen käyttövuoden ajalle. Toinen tutkimustavoite on saattaa elinkaarenseurantatyökalun kehittämisprojekti alkuun. Elinkaarenseurantatyökalulla halutaan seurata eri laitteiden elinkaaren vaihetta sekä löytää paras mahdollinen ajotapojen ja elinkaaren suhde. Työssä saavutettiin kunnossapito–ohjelma ja arvio eri resurssien tarpeesta voimakattilan laitteille. Resurssitarvearvio sisältää arvion työvoiman tarpeesta henkilötyötunteina sekä vaihdettavien vara– ja kulutusosien määrän.

Stock Repurchase Authorizations - Finnish Companies

The aim of this study is to examine the abnormal market reaction caused by share repurchase authorizations. We study this abnormal reaction from five different angles. First four concentrate on average abnormal returns while the fifth concentrates on cumulative abnormal return. Data consists of 508 share repurchase authorization from Finnish stock market. Event study methodology is used to examine the stock price reaction and regression analysis is used to find correlation between actual buybacks and abnormal returns. The empirical results show that markets do usually react positively to share repurchase authorizations. There are some differences depending which of the five angles the abnormal returns are being examined. Statistically we can confirm that some authorization give positive reaction while others do not. Also we didn’t find a statistically significant positive correlation between actual buybacks and abnormal returns.

Performance Comparison of Behavioral Finance -based Investment Strategies in the Finnish Stock Market 1996-2010

In this thesis traditional investment strategies (value and growth) are compared to modern investment strategies (momentum, contrarian and GARP) in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Strategies are compared during time period reaching from 1996 to 2010 in the Finnish stock market. Used data includes all listed main list stocks, dividends and is adjusted in case of splits, and mergers and acquisitions. Strategies are tested using different holding periods (6, 12 and 36 months) and data is divided into tercile portfolios based on different ranking criteria. Contrarian and growth strategies are the only strategies with improved cumulative returns when longer holding periods are used. Momentum (52-week high price1) and GARP strategies based on short holding period have the best performance and contrarian and growth strategies the worst. Momentum strategies (52-week high price) along with short holding period contrarian strategies (52-week low price2) have the lowest risk. Strategies with the highest risk are both growth strategies and two momentum strategies (52-week low price). The empirical results support the efficiency of momentum, GARP and value strategies. The least efficient strategies are contrarian and growth strategies in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Most strategies outperform the market portfolio in all three measures. 1 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week highest price) 2 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week lowest price)

Palveluliiketoiminnan CCC-varaosahankinta: Toimitusaika ja toimitusvarmuus

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan suomalaisen konepajakonsernin palveluliiketoiminnan varaosien CCC-hankintaa. Tutkimuksella haetaan CCC-hankinnan toimitusaikoja ja toimitusvarmuutta parantavia tekijöitä ja ratkaisuja. Tutkimus on toteutettu soveltamalla aiempia tutkimuksia, konepajakonsernin kolmen suurimman yrityksen hankinnan haastatteluja sekä 22 varaosatoimittajan haastatteluja. Erillisten tekijöiden vaikutuksia toimitusaikoihin ja toimitusvarmuuksiin on arvioitu Pearsonin korrelaatio-testeillä. Johtopäätöksiin on päädytty yhdistämällä aiempien tutkimusten tuloksia, eri toimijoille tehtyjä haastatteluja ja tekijöiden vaikutuksia keskenään. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että toimitusvarmuutta arvioitaessa tulee ottaa huomioon kolmannen osapuolen myöntämät laatusertifikaatit, toimitusaikaan sen sijaan vaikuttaa negatiivisesti eniten tuotannonohjauksen taso ja parempaan suoritukseen niin toimitusvarmuuden kuin toimitusajankin saralla voidaan päästä kehittämällä yhteistyötä ja siirtämällä entistä enemmän operatiivista vastuuta varaosatoimittajille.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

The us subprime crisis and stock market integration: evidence from the BRICS

The aim of this study is to examine the level of stock market co-movement in the BRICS countries and three major industrialized countries (Japan, UK and USA). While analyzing the interdependence and integration of markets, two subsets are examined: before (2000 – 2007) and during the global financial crisis (2007-2011). Generally, interdependence across markets is likely to increase during a highly volatile period. This is problematic because if it were true, the main benefit of international diversification would be reduced at times when it is most needed. The results reveal the dominant role of the US financial markets over the examined time period. Empirical studies of this research paper indicate that cross-market linkages have become slightly stronger during the ongoing subprime crisis than before crisis. However, results also show that an investor may obtain some international diversification benefits by investing especially in the BRICS countries despite the fact of unstable economic condition and growing globalization.

Performance characteristic of moving average trading rules in the Finnish stock market

The thesis examines the profitability of DMAC trading rules in the Finnish stock market over the 1996-2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis literature by comparing for the first time the performance of DMAC strategies based on individual stock trading portfolios to the performance of index trading strategies based on the trading on the index (OMX Helsinki 25) that consists of the same stocks. Besides, the market frictions including transaction costs and taxes are taken into account, and the results are reported from both institutional and individual investor’s perspective. Performance characteristic of DMAC rules are evaluated by simulating 19,900 different trading strategies in total for two non- overlapping 8-year sub-periods, and decomposing the full-sample-period performance of DMAC trading strategies into distinct bullish- and bearish-period performances. The results show that the best DMAC rules have predictive power on future price trends, and these rules are able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy. Although the performance of the DMAC strategies is highly dependent on the combination of moving average lengths, the best DMAC rules of the first sub-period have also performed well during the latter sub-period in the case of individual stock trading strategies. According to the results, the outperformance of DMAC trading rules over buy-and-hold strategy is mostly attributed to their superiority during the bearish periods, and particularly, during stock market crashes.

Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

Varastonhallinnan ja tuotannonsuunnittelun kehittäminen paperitehdasympäristössä

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on kehittää erään paperitehtaan käyttöpääoman hallintaa tuotannonsuunnittelun ja varastonhallinnan keinoin. Tuotannonsuunnittelussa tutkitaan syklinpituuden vaikutusta lajinvaihtohylkyyn ja siitä aiheutuvan varastotason nousun hyötyjä ja haittoja. Tehtaan ylijäämätasot määritetään puolen vuoden aikajänteeltä ja pyritään löytämään kehitysehdotuksia niiden minimoimiseksi. Työssä keskitytään lisäksi satamasta palautettuihin rulliin ja haamurulliin. Työn aiheista tehdään nykytila-analyysit, joiden perusteella selvitetään kehityskohteet. Työssä hyödynnetään tehtaan omia tietojärjestelmiä osa-alueiden analysoimisessa. Analysoimisessa käytetään karkeasuunnitelmaa ja erilaisia raportteja varastoihin ja tuotantoon liittyen. Työn tulosten mukaan voidaan todeta, että syklinpituutta ei kannata varasto-ohjautuvalla tuotantomuodolla kasvattaa. Ylijäämiä syntyy paperiteollisuudessa vääjäämättä ja kyseisessä yrityksessä niiden hyödyntämisprosentit ovat varsin korkealla tasolla. Kokonaisuutena tehtaan käyttöpääoman hallinta on varsin hyvällä pohjalla eikä suuria toimintatapamuutoksia ole tarpeen tehdä. Satamapalautusongelman suuruudesta tehtaalla oli erilainen käsitys kuin asia todellisuudessaan oli. Työssä esitetään kehitysehdotuksia, joiden avulla ongelmaa voidaan edelleen pienentää ja saavuttaa konkreettisia säästöjä. Haamurullien määrä osoittautui minimaaliseksi.