Weak Form Tests of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from CEE-Countries and Russian Stock Markets

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän, Slovakian, Tsekin, Romanian, Bulgarian, Unkarin ja Puolan osakemarkkinoiden heikkojen ehtojen tehokkuutta. Tämä tutkielma on kvantitatiivinen tutkimus ja päiväkohtaiset indeksin sulkemisarvot kerättiin Datastreamin tietokannasta. Data kerättiin pörssien ensimmäisestä kaupankäyntipäivästä aina vuoden 2006 elokuun loppuun saakka. Analysoinnin tehostamiseksi dataa tutkittiin koko aineistolla, sekä kahdella aliperiodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta on testattu neljällä tilastollisella metodilla, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotesti ja epäparametrinen runs-testi. Tavoitteena on myös selvittääesiintyykö kyseisillä markkinoilla viikonpäiväanomalia. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Viikonpäiväanomalia on löydettävissä kaikilta edellä mainituilta osakemarkkinoilta paitsi Tsekin markkinoilta. Merkittävää, positiivista tai negatiivista autokorrelaatiota, on löydettävissä kaikilta osakemarkkinoilta, myös Ljung-Box testi osoittaa kaikkien markkinoiden tehottomuutta täydellä periodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden satunnaiskulku hylätään runs-testin perusteella kaikilta muilta paitsi Slovakian osakemarkkinoilla, ainakin tarkastellessa koko aineistoa tai ensimmäistä aliperiodia. Aineisto ei myöskään ole normaalijakautunut minkään indeksin tai aikajakson kohdalla. Nämä havainnot osoittavat, että kyseessä olevat markkinat eivät ole heikkojen ehtojen mukaan tehokkaita

Testing Weak-Form Efficiency of the Chinese Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta ja random walk -hypoteesin voimassaoloa. Tavoitteena on myös selvittää esiintyykö viikonpäiväanomalia Kiinan osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään Shanghain osakepörssin A-sarjan,B-sarjan ja yhdistelmä-sarjan ja Shenzhenin yhdistelmä-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 21.2.1992-30.12.2005 sekä Shenzhenin osakepörssin A-sarjan ja B-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 5.10.1992-30.12.2005. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään neljä tilastollista menetelmää, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotestiä, epäparametrista runs-testiä, varianssisuhdetestiä sekä Augmented Dickey-Fullerin yksikköjuuritestiä. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Testejä tehdään sekä koko aineistolla että kolmella erillisellä ajanjaksolla. Tämän tutkielman empiiriset tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehottomuudesta. Lukuun ottamatta yksikköjuuritestien saatuja tuloksia, autokorrelaatio-, runs- ja varianssisuhdetestien perusteella random walk-hypoteesi hylättiin molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden kohdalla. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että molemmilla osakepörssillä B-sarjan indeksien käyttäytyminenon ollut huomattavasti enemmän random walk -hypoteesin vastainen kuin A-sarjan indeksit. Paitsi B-sarjan markkinat, molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuus näytti myös paranevan vuoden 2001 markkinabuumin jälkeen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat myös viikonpäiväanomalian esiintyvän Shanghain osakepörssillä, muttei kuitenkaan Shenzhenin osakepörssillä koko tarkasteluajanjaksolla.

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.

Tests of International Asset Pricing Models in Scandinavian Stock Markets

This thesis examines whether global, local and exchange risks are priced in Scandinavian countries’ equity markets by using conditional international asset pricing models. The employed international asset pricing models are the world capital asset pricing model, the international asset pricing model augmented with the currency risk, and the partially segmented model augmented with the currency risk. Moreover, this research traces estimated equity risk premiums for the Scandinavian countries. The empirical part of the study is performed using generalized method of moments approach. Monthly observations from February 1994 to June 2007 are used. Investors’ conditional expectations are modeled using several instrumental variables. In order to keep system parsimonious the prices of risk are assumed to be constant whereas expected returns and conditional covariances vary over time. The empirical findings of this thesis suggest that the prices of global and local market risk are priced in the Scandinavian countries. This indicates that the Scandinavian countries are mildly segmented from the global markets. Furthermore, the results show that the exchange risk is priced in the Danish and Swedish stock markets when the partially segmented model is augmented with the currency risk factor.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

On the development of object functions and restrictions for shapes made with a turret punch press

This study presents the information required to describe the machine and device resources in the turret punch press environment which are needed for the development of the analysing method for automated production. The description of product and device resources and their interconnectedness is the starting point for method comparison the development of expenses, production planning and the performance of optimisation. The manufacturing method cannot be optimized unless the variables and their interdependence are known. Sheet metal parts in particular may then become remarkably complex, and their automatic manufacture may be difficult or, with some automatic equipment, even impossible if not know manufacturing properties. This thesis consists of three main elements, which constitute the triangulation. In the first phase of triangulation, the manufacture occuring on a turret punch press is examined in order to find the factors that affect the efficiency of production. In the second phase of triangulation, the manufacturability of products on turret punch presses is examined through a set of laboratory tests. The third phase oftriangulation involves an examination of five industry parts. The main key findings of this study are: all possible efficiency in high automation level machining cannot be achieved unless the raw materials used in production and the dependencies of the machine and tools are well known. Machine-specific manufacturability factors for turret punch presses were not taken into account in the industrial case samples. On the grounds of the performed tests and industrial case samples, the designer of a sheet metal product can directly influence the machining time, material loss, energy consumption and the number of tools required on a turret punch press by making decisions in the way presented in the hypothesis of thisstudy. The sheet metal parts to be produced can be optimised to bemanufactured on a turret punch press when the material to be used and the kinds of machine and tool options available are known. This provides in-depth knowledge of the machine and tool properties machine and tool-specifically. None of the optimisation starting points described here is a separate entity; instead, they are all connected to each other.

Towards an Integrative Information Society: Studies on Individuality in Speech and Sign

The flow of information within modern information society has increased rapidly over the last decade. The major part of this information flow relies on the individual’s abilities to handle text or speech input. For the majority of us it presents no problems, but there are some individuals who would benefit from other means of conveying information, e.g. signed information flow. During the last decades the new results from various disciplines have all suggested towards the common background and processing for sign and speech and this was one of the key issues that I wanted to investigate further in this thesis. The basis of this thesis is firmly within speech research and that is why I wanted to design analogous test batteries for widely used speech perception tests for signers – to find out whether the results for signers would be the same as in speakers’ perception tests. One of the key findings within biology – and more precisely its effects on speech and communication research – is the mirror neuron system. That finding has enabled us to form new theories about evolution of communication, and it all seems to converge on the hypothesis that all communication has a common core within humans. In this thesis speech and sign are discussed as equal and analogical counterparts of communication and all research methods used in speech are modified for sign. Both speech and sign are thus investigated using similar test batteries. Furthermore, both production and perception of speech and sign are studied separately. An additional framework for studying production is given by gesture research using cry sounds. Results of cry sound research are then compared to results from children acquiring sign language. These results show that individuality manifests itself from very early on in human development. Articulation in adults, both in speech and sign, is studied from two perspectives: normal production and re-learning production when the apparatus has been changed. Normal production is studied both in speech and sign and the effects of changed articulation are studied with regards to speech. Both these studies are done by using carrier sentences. Furthermore, sign production is studied giving the informants possibility for spontaneous speech. The production data from the signing informants is also used as the basis for input in the sign synthesis stimuli used in sign perception test battery. Speech and sign perception were studied using the informants’ answers to questions using forced choice in identification and discrimination tasks. These answers were then compared across language modalities. Three different informant groups participated in the sign perception tests: native signers, sign language interpreters and Finnish adults with no knowledge of any signed language. This gave a chance to investigate which of the characteristics found in the results were due to the language per se and which were due to the changes in modality itself. As the analogous test batteries yielded similar results over different informant groups, some common threads of results could be observed. Starting from very early on in acquiring speech and sign the results were highly individual. However, the results were the same within one individual when the same test was repeated. This individuality of results represented along same patterns across different language modalities and - in some occasions - across language groups. As both modalities yield similar answers to analogous study questions, this has lead us to providing methods for basic input for sign language applications, i.e. signing avatars. This has also given us answers to questions on precision of the animation and intelligibility for the users – what are the parameters that govern intelligibility of synthesised speech or sign and how precise must the animation or synthetic speech be in order for it to be intelligible. The results also give additional support to the well-known fact that intelligibility in fact is not the same as naturalness. In some cases, as shown within the sign perception test battery design, naturalness decreases intelligibility. This also has to be taken into consideration when designing applications. All in all, results from each of the test batteries, be they for signers or speakers, yield strikingly similar patterns, which would indicate yet further support for the common core for all human communication. Thus, we can modify and deepen the phonetic framework models for human communication based on the knowledge obtained from the results of the test batteries within this thesis.

Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Osakkeiden hintojen muutokset makrotalouden muuttujia ennakoivina tekijöinä 2001-2011: BRIC-maat , euroalue, Japani ja USA.

The aim of this thesis is to examine stock returns as predictive indicators to macroeconomic variables in BRIC-countries, Japan, USA and euro area. We picked to represent macroeconomic variables interest rate, inflation, currency, gross domestic product and industrial production. For the beginning we examined previous studies and theory about the subject. Hypothesis of this thesis were derived from the previous studies. To conduct the results we used tests such augmented Dickey-Fuller, Engle-Granger co-integration, Granger causality and lagged distribution model. According to results stock returns do predictive macroeconomic variables and specifically changes of GDP and industrial production. There were few evidences of stock returns predictive power of inflation.

Social ventures : the development of the theory of sustainable contributive advantage and initial empirical tests

This thesis attempts to fill gaps in both a theoretical basis and an operational and strategic understanding in the areas of social ventures, social entrepreneurship and nonprofit business models. This study also attempts to bridge the gap in strategic and economic theory between social and commercial ventures. More specifically, this thesis explores sustainable competitive advantage from a resource-based theory perspective and explores how it may be applied to the nonmarket situation of nonprofit organizations and social ventures. It is proposed that a social value-orientation of sustainable competitive advantage, called sustainable contributive advantage, provides a more realistic depiction of what is necessary in order for a social venture to perform better than its competitors over time. In addition to providing this realistic depiction, this research provides a substantial theoretical contribution in the area of economics, social ventures, and strategy research, specifically in regards to resource-based theory. The proposed model for sustainable contributive advantage uses resource-based theory and competitive advantage in order to be applicable to social ventures. This model proposes an explanation of a social venture’s ability to demonstrate consistently superior performance. In order to determine whether sustainable competitive advantage is in fact, appropriate to apply to both social and economic environments, quantitative analyses are conducted on a large sample of nonprofit organizations in a single industry and then compared to similar quantitative analyses conducted on commercial ventures. In comparing the trends and strategies between the two types of entities from a quantitative perspective, propositions are developed regarding a social venture’s resource utilization strategies and their possible impact on performance. Evidence is found to support the necessity of adjusting existing models in resource-based theory in order to apply them to social ventures. Additionally supported is the proposed theory of sustainable contributive advantage. The thesis concludes with recommendations for practitioners, researchers and policy makers as well as suggestions for future research paths.

Bus bar aeolian vibration field tests

Large amplitude bus bar aeolian vibration may lead to post insulator damage. Different damping applications are used to decrease the risk of large amplitude aeolian vibration. In this paper the post insulator load caused by the bus bar aeolian vibration and the effect of damping methods are evaluated. The effects of three types of bus bar connectors and three types of primary structures are studied. Two actual damping devices, damping cable and their combinations are studied. The post insulator loads are studied with strain gage based custom made force sensors installed on the both ends of the post insulator and with the displacement sensor installed on the midpoint of the bus bar. The post insulator loads are calculated from the strain values and the damping properties are determined from the displacement history. The bus bar is deflected with a hanging weight. The weight is released and the bus bar is left to free damped vibration. Both actual bus bar vibration dampers RIBE and SBI were very effective against the aeolian vibration. Combining vibration damper with damping cable will increase the damping ratio but it may be unnecessary considering the extra effort. Bus bar connector type or primary structure have no effect on the vertical load. The bending moment at the post insulator with double sided bus bar connector is significantly higher than at the post insulator with single sided bus bar connector. No reliable conclusions about bus bar connector type effect can be done, but the roller bearing type or central bearing type connector may reduce the bending moment. The RHS steel frame as primary structure may increase the bending moment peak values since it is the least rigid primary structure type and it may start to vibrate as a response to the awakening force of the vibrating bus bar.

Combination of pulsed corona discharge with TiO2 photocatalysis: verification of hypothesis

The oxidation potential of pulsed corona discharge concerning aqueous impurities is limited in respect to certain refractory compounds. This may be enhanced in combination of the discharge with catalysis/photocatalysis as developed in homogeneous gas-phase reactions. The objective of the work consists of testing the hypothesis of oxidation potential enhancement in combination of the discharge with TiO2 photocatalysis applied to aqueous solutions of refractory oxalate. Meglumine acridone acetate was included for meeting the practical needs. The experimental research was undertaken into oxidation of aqueous solutions under conditions of various target pollutant concentrations, pH and the pulse repetition rate with plain electrodes and the electrodes with TiO2 attached to their surface. The results showed no positive influence of the photocatalyst, the pollutants were oxidized with the rate identical within the accuracy of measurements. The possible explanation for the observed inefficiency may include low UV irradiance, screening effect of water and generally low oxidation rate in photocatalytic reactions. Further studies might include combination of electric discharge with ozone decomposition/radical formation catalysts.