Rossijskaja Karelija i karely v imperskoi politike Rossii, 1905-1917

Russian Karelians were one of the small peasant nations of the Russian Empire that began to identify themselves as nations during the late imperial period. At that historical moment Russian Karelia fell between an economically undeveloped empire and the rapidly modernizing borderland of Finland. The economic and cultural lure of Finland drew Karelians into the Finnish camp. This attraction was seen as a challenge to Russia and influenced the straggle between Russia and Finland for the Karelians. This struggle was waged from 1905 to 1917. This work is focused on the beginning stage of the struggle, its various phases, and their results. The confrontation extended into different dimensions (economic, political, ideological, church and cultural politics) and occurred on two levels: central and regional. Countermeasures against local nationalisms developed much earlier both in Russia and in other empires for use were also used in the Russian Karelian case. Economic policies were deployed to try to make relations with Russia more alluring for Karelians and to improve their economic condition. However, these efforts produced only minimal results due to the economic weakness of the empire and a lack of finances. Fear of the economic integration of the Karelians and Finns, which would have stimulated the economy of the Karelia, also hindered these attempts. The further development of the Orthodox Church, the schools and the zemstvos in Karelia yielded fewer results than expected due to the economic underdevelopment of the region and the avoidance of the Finnish language. Policizing measures were the most successfull, as all activities in Russian Karelia by the Finns were entirely halted in practice. However, the aspiration of Russian Karelians to integrate their home districts with Finland remained a latent force that just waited for an opportunity to push to the surface again. Such a chance materialized with the Russian revolution. The Karelian question was also a part of Russian domestic political confrontation. At the and of the 1800s, the Russian nationalist right had grown strong and increasingly gained the favor of the autocracy. The right political forces exploited the Karelian question in its anti-Finnish ideology and in its general resistance to the national emancipation of the minority peoples of Russia. A separate ideology was developed, focusing on the closeness of Karelians to the "great Russian people." Simultaneously, this concept found a place in the ultramonarchist myth of the particularly close connection between the people and tsar that was prominent in the era of Nicholas II. This myth assigned the Karelians a place amongst the "simple people" faithful to the tsar.

Huellas de Eros y Thánatos en la narrativa de Diamela Eltit : La palabra en movimiento en el juego entre tropos, metáforas y deconstrucciones lingüísticas

Väitöskirja analysoi espanjan kielen dekonstruktioita ruumiin metaforista ja troopeista koostuvassa aineistossa chileläisen kirjailijan Diamela Eltitin (1949 -) neljässä romaanissa: Lumpérica (1983), Vaca sagrada (1991), El infarto del alma (1994) ja Los trabajadores de la muerte (1998). Näkökulma on kielen muutoksessa Eltitin proosassa 1980- ja 1990-luvuilla alkaen kokeellisesta huippuvaiheesta 1983, jolloin hän julkaisi esikoisromaaninsa Lumpérica. Tutkimus korostaa Eltitin romaanien historiallista arvoa, kirjallisuuden tapaa murtaa kielen rakenteita ja sitä miten tämä murros kytkeytyy taideteoreettiseen muutokseen kulttuuridiskursseissa. Tutkimus tarkastelee Eltitin kehityskaarta kenraali Augusto Pinochetin sotilasvallankaappauksesta 1973 halki sotilashallituksen kauden (1973-1990) aina kansalaisyhteiskunnan vahvistumiseen ja vuoteen 1998. Tutkimus analysoi ruumiin troopeista ja metaforista koostuvaa tutkimusaineistoa lingvistiikan, kirjallisuustieteen, historian ja sukupuolen tutkimuksen monitieteisessä viitekehyksessä. Sen vuoksi väitöskirja liittyy espanjalaisen filologian, yleisen kirjallisuustieteen, Latinalaisen Amerikan tutkimuksen ja naistutkimuksen oppiaineisiin. Kolme tärkeintä oppiteoreettista runkoa ovat lingvistinen strukturalismi, dekonstruktio ja feministiset kirjallisuusteoriat. Dekonstruktiivinen lähestymistapa tekstiin korostaa kielen merkityksen muodostumisen filosofista perustaa. Se pyrkii selvittämään, miten merkitys muodostuu kirjoittajan, tekstin ja lukijan välillä. Tekstikritiikki koostuu semanttisesta ja dekonstruktiivisesta tekstianalyysistä, jonka metodologisen mallin perusta on tanskalaisen kielitieteilijän Louis Hjelmslevin (1899-1965) kielitieteellinen malli. Väitös ei käytä mallia suoraan, vaan soveltaa sitä kaunokirjallisuuden tutkimukseen. Oppiteoreettisen viitekehyksen osalta tutkimus sijoittuu strukturalismin ja poststrukturalismin murrokseen. Tutkimus korostaa Eltitin radikaalia muotokieltä ja teatraalisuutta, hänen kielensä visuaalisuutta ja ruumiin metaforien eroottista jännitettä, mikä ilmenee mm. falloksen metaforaksi tulkitun hehkuvan valon kuvissa romaanissa Lumpérica. Vanhat kreikkalaiset myytit Éros ja Thánatos kasvavat esille länsimaisen taidehistorian perinteestä ja kontekstualisoituvat uusiksi kielikuviksi Chilen kirjallisessa maaperässä. Ne muodostavat Eltitin taiteellisen tuotannon pysyvän aihepiirin ja luovat teoksiin synkkää ja karua virettä sekä tummia ja eroottisia sävyjä. Tutkimus osoittaa, että Eltit dekonstruoi kieltä, mutta dekonstruktiot eivät ole jatkuvia eivätkä samanlaisia kaikissa romaaneissa. Kielellisten dekonstruktioiden variaatio on laaja eikä Eltit murra kielen syntaktisia ja morfologisia rakenteita kaikissa teksteissään. Tutkimuksen perusteella väitän, että Eltitin kirjoituksesta puhuttaessa useat tutkijat käyttävät epämääräisesti dekonstruktio-termiä. Useiden tutkijoiden toteamus dekonstruktiosta Diamela Eltitin kirjallisessa tuotannossa pysyvänä piirteenä on epätäsmällinen. Sen sijaan dekonstruktiivinen kirjoitus tarkoittaa Eltitillä laajasti vaihtelevaa lähestymistapaa kieleen, mikä ilmenee kehityslinjana hänen tuotannossaan ja eri tavoin jokaisessa teoksessa.

The Reorganisation of Provincial Territories in Light of the Imperial Decision-Making Process : Later Roman Arabia and Tres Palaestinae as Case Studies

The dissertation examines Roman provincial administration and the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations of provinces during the Imperial period with special emphasis on the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina during the Later Roman period, i.e., from Diocletian (r. 284 305) to the accession of Phocas (602), in the light of imperial decision-making. Provinces were the basic unit of Roman rule, for centuries the only level of administration that existed between the emperor and the cities of the Empire. The significance of the territorial reorganisations that the provinces were subjected to during the Imperial period is thus of special interest. The approach to the phenomenon is threefold: firstly, attention is paid to the nature and constraints of the Roman system of provincial administration. Secondly, the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations is analysed on the macro-scale, and thirdly, a case study concerning the reorganisations of the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina is conducted. The study of the mechanisms of decision-making provides a foundation through which the collected data of all known major territorial reorganisations is interpreted. The data concerning reorganisations is also subjected to qualitative comparative analysis that provides a new perspective to the data in the form of statistical analysis that is sensitive to the complexities of individual cases. This analysis of imperial decision-making is based on a timeframe stretching from Augustus (r. 30 BC AD 14) to the accession of Phocas (602). The study identifies five distinct phases in the use of territorial reorganisations of the provinces. From Diocletian s reign there is a clear normative change that made territorial reorganisations a regular tool of administration for the decision-making elite for addressing a wide variety of qualitatively different concerns. From the beginning of the fifth century the use of territorial reorganisations rapidly diminishes. The two primary reasons for the decline in the use of reorganisations were the solidification of ecclesiastical power and interests connected to the extent of provinces, and the decline of the dioceses. The case study of Palaestina and Arabia identifies seven different territorial reorganisations from Diocletian to Phocas. Their existence not only testifies to wider imperial policies, but also shows sensitivity to local conditions and corresponds with the general picture of provincial reorganisations. The territorial reorganisations of the provinces reflect the proactive control of the Roman decision-making elite. The importance of reorganisations should be recognised more clearly as part of the normal imperial administration of the provinces and especially reflecting the functioning of dioceses.

Constructive Perspectives on Inductive Logic

Constructive (intuitionist, anti-realist) semantics has thus far been lacking an adequate concept of truth in infinity concerning factual (i.e., empirical, non-mathematical) sentences. One consequence of this problem is the difficulty of incorporating inductive reasoning in constructive semantics. It is not possible to formulate a notion for probable truth in infinity if there is no adequate notion of what truth in infinity is. One needs a notion of a constructive possible world based on sensory experience. Moreover, a constructive probability measure must be defined over these constructively possible empirical worlds. This study defines a particular kind of approach to the concept of truth in infinity for Rudolf Carnap's inductive logic. The new approach is based on truth in the consecutive finite domains of individuals. This concept will be given a constructive interpretation. What can be verifiably said about an empirical statement with respect to this concept of truth, will be explained, for which purpose a constructive notion of epistemic probability will be introduced. The aim of this study is also to improve Carnap's inductive logic. The study addresses the problem of justifying the use of an "inductivist" method in Carnap's lambda-continuum. A correction rule for adjusting the inductive method itself in the course of obtaining evidence will be introduced. Together with the constructive interpretation of probability, the correction rule yields positive prior probabilities for universal generalizations in infinite domains.

On the moderators of trait avoidance motivation in predicting cognitive biases and adjustment

The present research focused on motivational and personality traits measuring individual differences in the experience of negative affect, in reactivity to negative events, and in the tendency to avoid threats. In this thesis, such traits (i.e., neuroticism and dispositional avoidance motivation) are jointly referred to as trait avoidance motivation. The seven studies presented here examined the moderators of such traits in predicting risk judgments, negatively biased processing, and adjustment. Given that trait avoidance motivation encompasses reactivity to negative events and tendency to avoid threats, it can be considered surprising that this trait does not seem to be related to risk judgments and that it seems to be inconsistently related to negatively biased information processing. Previous work thus suggests that some variable(s) moderate these relations. Furthermore, recent research has suggested that despite the close connection between trait avoidance motivation and (mal)adjustment, measures of cognitive performance may moderate this connection. However, it is unclear whether this moderation is due to different response processes between individuals with different cognitive tendencies or abilities, or to the genuinely buffering effect of high cognitive ability against the negative consequences of high trait avoidance motivation. Studies 1-3 showed that there is a modest direct relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments, but studies 2-3 demonstrated that state motivation moderates this relation. In particular, individuals in an avoidance state made high risk judgments regardless of their level of trait avoidance motivation. This result explained the disparity between the theoretical conceptualization of avoidance motivation and the results of previous studies suggesting that the relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments is weak or nonexistent. Studies 5-6 examined threat identification tendency as a moderator for the relationship between trait avoidance motivation and negatively biased processing. However, no evidence for such moderation was found. Furthermore, in line with previous work, the results of studies 5-6 suggested that trait avoidance motivation is inconsistently related to negatively biased processing, implying that theories concerning traits and information processing may need refining. Study 7 examined cognitive ability as a moderator for the relation between trait avoidance motivation and adjustment, and demonstrated that cognitive ability moderates the relation between trait avoidance motivation and indicators of both self-reported and objectively measured adjustment. Thus, the results of Study 7 supported the buffer explanation for the moderating influence of cognitive performance. To summarize, the results showed that it is possible to find factors that consistently moderate the relations between traits and important outcomes (e.g. adjustment). Identifying such factors and studying their interplay with traits is one of the most important goals of current personality research. The present thesis contributed to this line of work in relation to trait avoidance motivation.

The regional differences between countries in traffic safety: A cross-cultural study and Turkish Case

Road traffic accidents are a large problem everywhere in the world. However, regional differences in traffic safety between countries are considerable. For example, traffic safety records are much worse in Southern Europe and the Middle East than in Northern and Western Europe. Despite the large regional differences in traffic safety, factors contributing to different accident risk figures in different countries and regions have remained largely unstudied. The general aim of this study was to investigate regional differences in traffic safety between Southern European/Middle Eastern (i.e., Greece, Iran, Turkey) and Northern/Western European (i.e., Finland, Great Britain, The Netherlands) countries and to identify factors related to these differences. We conducted seven sub-studies in which I applied a traffic culture framework, including a multi-level approach, to traffic safety. We used aggregated level data (national statistics), surveys among drivers, and data on traffic accidents and fatalities in the analyses. In the first study, we investigated the influence of macro level factors (i.e., economic, societal, and cultural) on traffic safety across countries. The results showed that a high GNP per capita and conservatism correlated with a low number of traffic fatalities, whereas a high degree of uncertainty avoidance, neuroticism, and egalitarianism correlated with a high number of traffic fatalities. In the second, third, and fourth studies, we examined whether the conceptualisation of road user characteristics (i.e., driver behaviour and performance) varied across traffic cultures and how these factors determined overall safety, and the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results showed that the factorial agreement for driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive driving) and performance (i.e., safety skills) was unsatisfactory in Greece, Iran, and Turkey, where the lack of social tolerance and interpersonal aggressive violations seem to be important characteristics of driving. In addition, we found that driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive violations and errors) mediated the relationship between culture/country and accidents. Besides, drivers from "dangerous" Southern European countries and Iran scored higher on aggressive violations and errors than did drivers from "safe" Northern European countries. However, "speeding" appeared to be a "pan-cultural" problem in traffic. Similarly, aggressive driving seems largely depend on road users' interactions and drivers' interpretation (i.e., cognitive biases) of the behaviour of others in every country involved in the study. Moreover, in all countries, a risky general driving style was mostly related to being young and male. The results of the fifth and sixth studies showed that among young Turkish drivers, gender stereotypes (i.e., masculinity and femininity) greatly influence driver behaviour and performance. Feminine drivers were safety-oriented whereas masculine drivers were skill-oriented and risky drivers. Since everyday driving tasks involve not only erroneous (i.e., risky or dangerous driving) or correct performance (i.e., normal habitual driving), but also "positive" driver behaviours, we developed a reliable scale for measuring "positive" driver behaviours among Turkish drivers in the seventh study. Consequently, I revised Reason's model [Reason, J. T., 1990. Human error. Cambridge University Press: New York] of aberrant driver behaviour to represent a general driving style, including all possible intentional behaviours in traffic while evaluating the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results emphasise the importance of economic, societal and cultural factors, general driving style and skills, which are related to exposure, cognitive biases as well as age, sex, and gender, in differences between countries in traffic safety.

Representing the epistemic nature of teachers’ practical knowledge : The case of class teachers’ general pedagogy

The present study addressed the epistemology of teachers’ practical knowledge. Drawing from the literature, teachers’ practical knowledge is defined as all teachers’ cognitions (e.g., beliefs, values, motives, procedural knowing, and declarative knowledge) that guide their practice of teaching. The teachers’ reasoning that lies behind their practical knowledge is addressed to gain insight into its epistemic nature. I studied six class teachers’ practical knowledge; they teach in the metropolitan region of Helsinki. Relying on the assumptions of the phenomenographic inquiry, I collected and analyzed the data. I analyzed the data in two stages where the first stage involved an abductive procedure, and the second stage an inductive procedure for interpretation, and thus developed the system of categories. In the end, a quantitative analysis nested into the qualitative findings to study the patterns of the teachers’’ reasoning. The results indicated that teachers justified their practical knowledge based on morality and efficiency of action; efficiency of action was found to be presented in two different ways: authentic efficiency and naïve efficiency. The epistemic weight of morality was embedded in what I call “moral care”. The core intention of teachers in the moral care was the commitment that they felt about the “whole character” of students. From this perspective the “dignity” and the moral character of the students should not replaced for any other “instrumental price”. “Caring pedagogy” was the epistemic value of teachers’ reasoning in the authentic efficiency. The central idea in the caring pedagogy was teachers’ intentions to improve the “intellectual properties” of “all or most” of the students using “flexible” and “diverse” pedagogies. However, “regulating pedagogy” was the epistemic condition of practice in the cases corresponding to naïve efficiency. Teachers argued that an effective practical knowledge should regulate and manage the classroom activities, but the targets of the practical knowledge were mainly other “issues “or a certain percentage of the students. In these cases, the teachers’ arguments were mainly based on the notion of “what worked” regardless of reflecting on “what did not work”. Drawing from the theoretical background and the data, teachers’ practical knowledge calls for “praxial knowledge” when they used the epistemic conditions of “caring pedagogy” and “moral care”. It however calls for “practicable” epistemic status when teachers use the epistemic condition of regulating pedagogy. As such, praxial knowledge with the dimensions of caring pedagogy and moral care represents the “normative” perspective on teachers’ practical knowledge, and thus reflects a higher epistemic status in comparison to “practicable” knowledge, which represents a “descriptive” perception toward teachers’ practical knowledge and teaching.

Is a Majority Enough? Psychological Well-being and Its Relation to Academic and Prosocial Motivation, Self-regulation and Achievement at school

This cross-sectional study analyzed psychological well-being at school using the Self-Determination theory as a theoretical frame-work. The study explored basic psychological needs fulfillment (BPNS), academic (SRQ-A), prosocial self-regulation (SRQ-P) and motivation, and their relationship with achievement in general, special and selective education (N=786, 444 boys, 345 girls, mean age 12 yrs 8 mths). Motivation starts behavior which becomes guided by self-regulation. The perceived locus of control (PLOC) affects how self-determined this behavior will be; in other words, to what extent it is autonomously regulated. In order learn and thus to be able to accept external goals, a student has to feel emotionally safe and have sufficient ego-flexibility—all of which builds on satisfied psychological needs. In this study those conditions were explored. In addition to traditional methods Self-organizing maps (SOM), was used in order to cluster the students according to their well-being, self-regulation, motivation and achievement scores. The main impacts of this research were: a presentation of the theory based alternative of studying psychological well-being at school and usage of both the variable and person-oriented approach. In this Finnish sample the results showed that the majority of students felt well, but the well-being varied by group. Overall about for 11–15% the basic needs were deprived depending on the educational group. Age and educational group were the most effective factors; gender was important in relation to prosocial identified behavior. Although the person-oriented SOM-approach, was in a large extent confirming what was no-ticed by using comparison of the variables: the SEN groups had lower levels of basic needs fulfillment and less autonomous self-regulation, interesting deviations of that rule appeared. Some of the SEL- and GEN-group members ended up in the more unfavorable SOM-clusters, and not all SEN-group members belonged to the poorest clusters (although not to the best either). This evidence refines the well-being and self-regulation picture, and may re-direct intervention plans, and turn our focus also on students who might otherwise remain unnoticed. On the other hand, these results imply simultaneously that in special education groups the average is not the whole truth. On the basis of theoretical and empirical considerations an intervention model was sug-gested. The aim of the model was to shift amotivation or external motivation in a more intrinsic direction. According to the theoretical and empirical evidence this can be achieved first by studying the self-concept a student has, and then trying to affect both inner and environmental factors—including a consideration of the basic psychological needs. Keywords: academic self-regulation, prosocial self-regulation, basic psychological needs, moti-vation, achievement

Immunomodulatory effects of probiotic bacteria in healthy adults

Probiooteilla kantakohtaisia vaikutuksia ihmisen immuunijärjestelmään terveillä aikuisilla Probiooteilla on kantakohtaisia tulehduksen välittäjäaineita vähentäviä vaikutuksia ja probioottien yhdistelmien vaikutukset eroavat yksittäisten kantojen vaikutuksista selviää TtM Riina Kekkosen tuoreesta väitöstutkimuksesta. TtM Riina Kekkonen on selvittänyt väitöskirjassaan eri probioottikantojen vaikutuksia immuunivasteeseen valkosolumallissa sekä terveillä aikuisilla lumekontrolloiduissa kliinisissä tutkimuksissa. Aikaisemmin probioottien vaikutuksia on tutkittu lähinnä allergian ja erilaisten vatsavaivojen ehkäisyssä ja hoidossa. Probiootteja sisältäviä tuotteita käyttävät kuluttajat ovat kuitenkin useimmiten terveitä aikuisia, ja probioottien vaikutus terveiden aikuisten immuunijärjestelmään on ollut puutteellisesti selvitettyä. Valkosolumallissa probioottikantojen havaittiin poikkeavan toisistaan niiden kyvyssä aktivoida immuunivasteen välittäjäaineiden, sytokiinien, tuotantoa. Anti-inflammatorisia, eli tulehdusta lievittäviä vaikutuksia nähtiin lähinnä Bifidobacterium ja Propionibacterium sukuihin kuuluvilla kannoilla. Streptococcus ja Leuconostoc sukuihin kuuluvat kannat puolestaan aktivoivat Th1 tyyppistä, soluvälitteistä immuunivastetta. Eri probioottien kombinaatiot eivät saaneet aikaan voimakkaampaa aktivaatiota yksittäisiin kantoihin verrattuna, joka viittaa probioottien keskinäiseen kilpailuun niiden ollessa kontaktissa ihmisen solujen kanssa. Probioottikantojen valinta kliinisiin tutkimuksiin tehtiin niiden anti-inflammatoristen ominaisuuksien perusteella. Parhaita anti-inflammatorisia kantoja olivat B. lactis ssp. animalis Bb12 ja P. freudenreichii ssp. shermanii JS, joiden lisäksi tutkimuksiin valittiin myös L. rhamnosus GG (LGG) hyvin tutkittuna referenssikantana. Solutöiden tulokset eivät olleet täysin verrannollisia kliinisen työn tuloksiin, koska LGG näytti omaavan parhaat anti-inflammatoriset ominaisuudet kliinisissä tutkimuksissa vaikka solutyössä sen aikaansaamat vasteet olivat melko vaimeita. Kolmen viikon kliinisessä tutkimuksessa terveillä aikuisilla LGG alensi mm. tulehdusta kuvaavan C-reaktiivisen proteiinin ja inflammatoristen sytokiinien määrää. Pidemmässä kolmen kuukauden pituisessa kliinisessä tutkimuksessa LGG:llä ei ollut vaikutusta terveiden aikuisten infektiosairastavuuteen, mutta LGG lyhensi vatsavaivojen kestoa. Probioottien vaikutukset immuunijärjestelmään näyttävät olevan kantakohtaisia ja erityisesti Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG:llä havaittiin anti-inflammatorisia vaikutuksia. Valkosolumallia ei tulisi käyttää ainoana probioottikantojen skriinausmenetelmänä niiden immunologisia vaikutuksia selvitettäessä, koska solutöiden tulokset eivät olleet täysin verrannollisia kliinisten tutkimusten tuloksiin. Sen sijaan veren perifeeristen lymfosyyttien eristäminen ja niiden aktivoitumisen selvittäminen lyhytaikaisessa kliinisessä tutkimuksessa voisi toimia suhteellisen helppona skiinausmenetelmänä.

Computational Studies on Bimetallic Clusters

The chemical and physical properties of bimetallic clusters have attracted considerable attention due to the potential technological applications of mixed-metal systems. It is of fundamental interests to study clusters because they are the link between atomic surface and bulk properties. More information of metal-metal bond in small clusters can be hence released. The studies in my thesis mainly focus on the two different kinds of bimetallic clusters: the clusters consisting of extraordinary shaped all metal four-membered rings and a series of sodium auride clusters. As described in most general organic chemistry books nowadays, a group of compounds are classified as aromatic compounds because of their remarkable stabilities, particular geometrical and energetic properties and so on. The notation of aromaticity is essentially qualitative. More recently, the connection has been made between aromaticity and energetic and magnetic properties. Also, the discussions of the aromatic nature of molecular rings are no longer limited to organic compounds obeying the Hückel’s rule. In our research, we mainly applied the GIMIC method to several bimetallic clusters at the CCSD level, and compared the results with those obtained by using chemical shift based methods. The magnetically induced ring currents can be generated easily by employing GIMIC method, and the nature of aromaticity for each system can be therefore clarified. We performed intensive quantum chemical calculations to explore the characters of the anionic sodium auride clusters and the corresponding neutral clusters since it has been fascinating in investigating molecules with gold atom involved due to its distinctive physical and chemical properties. As small gold clusters, the sodium auride clusters seem to form planar structures. With the addition of a negative charge, the gold atom in anionic clusters prefers to carry the charge and orients itself away from other gold atoms. As a result, the energetically lowest isomer for an anionic cluster is distinguished from the one for the corresponding neutral cluster. Mostly importantly, we presented a comprehensive strategy of ab initio applications to computationally implement the experimental photoelectron spectra.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

On the Geometry of Infinite-Dimensional Grassmannian Manifolds and Gauge Theory

This PhD Thesis is about certain infinite-dimensional Grassmannian manifolds that arise naturally in geometry, representation theory and mathematical physics. From the physics point of view one encounters these infinite-dimensional manifolds when trying to understand the second quantization of fermions. The many particle Hilbert space of the second quantized fermions is called the fermionic Fock space. A typical element of the fermionic Fock space can be thought to be a linear combination of the configurations m particles and n anti-particles . Geometrically the fermionic Fock space can be constructed as holomorphic sections of a certain (dual)determinant line bundle lying over the so called restricted Grassmannian manifold, which is a typical example of an infinite-dimensional Grassmannian manifold one encounters in QFT. The construction should be compared with its well-known finite-dimensional analogue, where one realizes an exterior power of a finite-dimensional vector space as the space of holomorphic sections of a determinant line bundle lying over a finite-dimensional Grassmannian manifold. The connection with infinite-dimensional representation theory stems from the fact that the restricted Grassmannian manifold is an infinite-dimensional homogeneous (Kähler) manifold, i.e. it is of the form G/H where G is a certain infinite-dimensional Lie group and H its subgroup. A central extension of G acts on the total space of the dual determinant line bundle and also on the space its holomorphic sections; thus G admits a (projective) representation on the fermionic Fock space. This construction also induces the so called basic representation for loop groups (of compact groups), which in turn are vitally important in string theory / conformal field theory. The Thesis consists of three chapters: the first chapter is an introduction to the backround material and the other two chapters are individually written research articles. The first article deals in a new way with the well-known question in Yang-Mills theory, when can one lift the action of the gauge transformation group on the space of connection one forms to the total space of the Fock bundle in a compatible way with the second quantized Dirac operator. In general there is an obstruction to this (called the Mickelsson-Faddeev anomaly) and various geometric interpretations for this anomaly, using such things as group extensions and bundle gerbes, have been given earlier. In this work we give a new geometric interpretation for the Faddeev-Mickelsson anomaly in terms of differentiable gerbes (certain sheaves of categories) and central extensions of Lie groupoids. The second research article deals with the question how to define a Dirac-like operator on the restricted Grassmannian manifold, which is an infinite-dimensional space and hence not in the landscape of standard Dirac operator theory. The construction relies heavily on infinite-dimensional representation theory and one of the most technically demanding challenges is to be able to introduce proper normal orderings for certain infinite sums of operators in such a way that all divergences will disappear and the infinite sum will make sense as a well-defined operator acting on a suitable Hilbert space of spinors. This research article was motivated by a more extensive ongoing project to construct twisted K-theory classes in Yang-Mills theory via a Dirac-like operator on the restricted Grassmannian manifold.

Kirkon vai valtion kirjat? : Uskontokuntasidonnaisuuden ongelma Suomen väestökirjanpidossa 1839-1904

The Population Register – run by the Church or the state? The problem posed by the obligation to belong to a religious community in the registration of births and deaths in Finland between 1839 and 1904 The Lutheran Church of Finland is the nation’s largest church; approximately 82 per cent of Finns were members in 2007. The Church ran an official register of its members until 1999, when the state then undertook this task. The registration of births and deaths by the Church has a long history dating back to the 17th century, when Bishop Johannes Gezelius Sr. decreed that all parish members would have to be recorded in parish registers. These registers were used to control how well parish members knew the Christian doctrine and, gradually, also if they were literate. Additionally, the Church attempted to ensure by means of the parish registers that parish members went to Holy Communion annually. Since everyone was a member of the Lutheran Church, the state also took advantage of the parish registers and used them for the purposes of tax collection and conscription. The main research theme of “The Population Register – run by the Church or the state?” goes back to these times. The actual research period covers the years of 1839–1904. At that time Finland was under Russian rule, although autonomous. In the late 19th century the press and different associations in Finland began to engage in public debate, and the country started moving from a submissive society to a civic one. The identity of the Lutheran Church also became more prominent when the Church Act and the General Synod were realised in 1869. A few years earlier, municipal and parish administrations had been separated, but the general registration of births and deaths was left to the Church to see to. In compliance with the constitution of the country, all the inhabitants in principle still had to be Lutheran. In practice, the situation was different. The religious and ideological realms diversified, and the Lutheran concept of religion was no longer acceptable to everyone. The conflict was reflected in the registration of births and deaths, which was linked to the Lutheran Church and its parish registers. Nobody was allowed to leave the Church, there was no civil register, and the Lutheran Church did not consent to record unbaptized children in the parish registers. Therefore such children were left without civil rights. Thus the obligation to belong to a religious community had become a problem in the registration of births and deaths. The Lutheran clergy also appealed to the 1723 privileges, according to which they had been exempted from the drawing up of additional population registers. In 1889 Finland passed the Dissenters Act. By virtue of this act the Baptists and the Methodists left the state Church, but this was not the case with the members of the free churches. The freethinkers had to retain their church membership, as the law did not apply to them. This meant that the unbaptized children of the members of the free churches or those of freethinkers were still not entered in any registers. The children were not able to go to school, work for the state or legally marry. Neither were they able to inherit property, as they did not legally exist. The system of parish registers was created when everyone was required to be a member of the Lutheran Church, but it did not work when liberal attitudes eventually penetrated the sphere of religion, too. The government´s measures to solve the problem were slow and cautious, partly because Finland was part of Russia, partly because there were only about 100 unbaptized children. As the problem group was small and the state´s resources were limited, no general civil register was established. The state accepted the fact that in spite of the problems, the Evangelical Lutheran Church and the congregations of dissenters were the only official establishments to run populations registers in the country, and for social purposes, too. In 1900 the Diet of Finland finally approved a limited civil register, which unbaptized children and unregistered foreigners would be recorded in. Due to political reasons the civil register did not come into existence until 1917, after the actual research period.

Kirkko, Kekkonen ja kommunismi poliittisina kriisivuosina 1958-1962

This study explores the relationship of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland to communism and political power during the period of crises in Finnish foreign relations with the Soviet Union from 1958 to 1962. During this period the USSR repeatedly interfered in Finland´s domestic affairs and limited her foreign political freedom of action. The research subjects for this dissertation are the bishops of the Church of Finland and the newspaper Kotimaa, which can be regarded as the unofficial organ of the church at the time. A typical characteristic of the Church of Finland from the beginning of the twentieth century was patriotism. During the interwar years the church was strongly anti-communist and against the Soviet Union. This tendency was also evident during the Second World War. After the war the Finnish Church feared that the rise of the extreme left would jeopardize its position. The church, however, succeeded in maintaining its status as a state church throughout the critical years immediately following the war. This study indicates that, although the manner of expression altered, the political attitude of the church did not substantially change during the postwar period. In the late 1950s and early 1960s the church was still patriotic and fear of the extreme left was also evident among the leaders of the church. The victory of the Finnish People's Democratic League in the general election of 1958 was an unwelcome surprise to the church. This generated fear in the church that, with Soviet support, the Finnish communists might return to governmental power and the nation could become a people's democracy. Accordingly, the church tried to encourage other parties to set aside their disagreements and act together against the extreme left throughout the period under study. The main characteristics of the church´s political agenda during this period of crisis were to support the Finnish foreign policy led by the president of the republic, Urho Kekkonen, and to resist Finnish communism. The attitude of Finnish bishops and the newspaper Kotimaa to the Cold War in general was generally in agreement with the majority of western Christians. They feared communism, were afraid of the USSR, but supported peaceful co-existence because they did not want an open conflict with the Soviets. Because of uncertainties in Finland's international position the Finnish Church regarded it as necessary to support the Finnish policy of friendship towards the USSR. The Finnish Church considerer it unwise to openly criticize the Soviet Union, tried resist the spread of communism in Finnish domestic policy. This period of foreign policy crises was principally seen by the church as a time when there was a need to strengthen Finland's unstable national position.