51 resultados para error-location number
em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki
Resumo:
Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.
Resumo:
It is suggested that the ability and practices of how the multinational corporation (MNC) manages knowledge transfer among its geographically dispersed subsidiary units are crucial for the building and development of firm competitive advantage. However, cross-border transfer of valuable organizational knowledge is likely to be problematic and laborious, especially within diversified and differentiated MNCs. Using data collected from 164 western multinational companies’ subsidiary units located in China and Finland, this study aims to investigate cross-border knowledge transfer within the MNC. It explores a number of factors that influence the transfer of knowledge among units in the differentiated MNC. The study consists of five individual papers. Paper 1 investigates a range of organizational mechanisms that may positively influence a subsidiary’s propensity to undertake knowledge transfers to other parts of the corporation. Paper 2 explores the impact of subsidiary location on the motivational dispositions of knowledge receiving units to value and accept knowledge from subsidiaries located in economically less advanced countries. Paper 3 examines the influence of social capital variables on knowledge transfer in dyadic relationships between foreign-owned subsidiaries and their sister and patent units. Paper 4 provides some initial insights into potentially different effects of trust and shared vision in intra-organizational vs. inter-organizational relationships. Using a case study setting, Paper 5 explores means and mechanisms used in transferring human resource management practices to Western MNCs’ business units in China from a cultural perspective. The results of the study show that MNC management through choices regarding organizational controls can encourage and enhance corporate-internal knowledge transfer. It also finds evidence that more knowledge is transferred from subsidiaries located in an industrialized country (e.g., Finland) than subsidiaries located in a developing country (e.g., China). While the study has highlighted the importance of social capital in promoting knowledge transfer, it has also uncovered some new findings that the effect of trust and shared vision may be contingent upon different contexts. Finally, in Paper 5, a number of mechanisms used in transferring selected HRM practices and competences to the Chinese business units have been identified. The findings suggest that cultural differences should be taken into consideration in the choice and use of different transfer mechanisms.
Resumo:
A local algorithm with local horizon r is a distributed algorithm that runs in r synchronous communication rounds; here r is a constant that does not depend on the size of the network. As a consequence, the output of a node in a local algorithm only depends on the input within r hops from the node. We give tight bounds on the local horizon for a class of local algorithms for combinatorial problems on unit-disk graphs (UDGs). Most of our bounds are due to a refined analysis of existing approaches, while others are obtained by suggesting new algorithms. The algorithms we consider are based on network decompositions guided by a rectangular tiling of the plane. The algorithms are applied to matching, independent set, graph colouring, vertex cover, and dominating set. We also study local algorithms on quasi-UDGs, which are a popular generalisation of UDGs, aimed at more realistic modelling of communication between the network nodes. Analysing the local algorithms on quasi-UDGs allows one to assume that the nodes know their coordinates only approximately, up to an additive error. Despite the localisation error, the quality of the solution to problems on quasi-UDGs remains the same as for the case of UDGs with perfect location awareness. We analyse the increase in the local horizon that comes along with moving from UDGs to quasi-UDGs.
Resumo:
Thunderstorm is a dangerous electrical phenomena in the atmosphere. Thundercloud is formed when thermal energy is transported rapidly upwards in convective updraughts. Electrification occurs in the collisions of cloud particles in the strong updraught. When the amount of charge in the cloud is large enough, electrical breakdown, better known as a flash, occurs. Lightning location is nowadays an essential tool for the detection of severe weather. Located flashes indicate in real time the movement of hazardous areas and the intensity of lightning activity. Also, an estimate for the flash peak current can be determined. The observations can be used in damage surveys. The most simple way to represent lightning data is to plot the locations on a map, but the data can be processed in more complex end-products and exploited in data fusion. Lightning data serves as an important tool also in the research of lightning-related phenomena, such as Transient Luminous Events. Most of the global thunderstorms occur in areas with plenty of heat, moisture and tropospheric instability, for example in the tropical land areas. In higher latitudes like in Finland, the thunderstorm season is practically restricted to the summer season. Particular feature of the high-latitude climatology is the large annual variation, which regards also thunderstorms. Knowing the performance of any measuring device is important because it affects the accuracy of the end-products. In lightning location systems, the detection efficiency means the ratio between located and actually occurred flashes. Because in practice it is impossible to know the true number of actually occurred flashes, the detection efficiency has to be esimated with theoretical methods.
Resumo:
This study reports a diachronic corpus investigation of common-number pronouns used to convey unknown or otherwise unspecified reference. The study charts agreement patterns in these pronouns in various diachronic and synchronic corpora. The objective is to provide base-line data on variant frequencies and distributions in the history of English, as there are no previous systematic corpus-based observations on this topic. This study seeks to answer the questions of how pronoun use is linked with the overall typological development in English and how their diachronic evolution is embedded in the linguistic and social structures in which they are used. The theoretical framework draws on corpus linguistics and historical sociolinguistics, grammaticalisation, diachronic typology, and multivariate analysis of modelling sociolinguistic variation. The method employs quantitative corpus analyses from two main electronic corpora, one from Modern English and the other from Present-day English. The Modern English material is the Corpus of Early English Correspondence, and the time frame covered is 1500-1800. The written component of the British National Corpus is used in the Present-day English investigations. In addition, the study draws supplementary data from other electronic corpora. The material is used to compare the frequencies and distributions of common-number pronouns between these two time periods. The study limits the common-number uses to two subsystems, one anaphoric to grammatically singular antecedents and one cataphoric, in which the pronoun is followed by a relative clause. Various statistical tools are used to process the data, ranging from cross-tabulations to multivariate VARBRUL analyses in which the effects of sociolinguistic and systemic parameters are assessed to model their impact on the dependent variable. This study shows how one pronoun type has extended its uses in both subsystems, an increase linked with grammaticalisation and the changes in other pronouns in English through the centuries. The variationist sociolinguistic analysis charts how grammaticalisation in the subsystems is embedded in the linguistic and social structures in which the pronouns are used. The study suggests a scale of two statistical generalisations of various sociolinguistic factors which contribute to grammaticalisation and its embedding at various stages of the process.
Resumo:
This dissertation consists of four articles and an introduction. The five parts address the same topic, nonverbal predication in Erzya, from different perspectives. The work is at the same time linguistic typology and Uralic studies. The findings based on a large corpus of empirical Erzya data, which was collected using several different methods and included recordings of the spoken language, made it possible for the present study to apply, then test and finally discuss the previous theories based on cross-linguistic data. Erzya makes use of multiple predication patterns which vary from totally analytic to the morphologically very complex. Nonverbal predicate clause types are classified on the basis of propositional acts in clauses denoting class-membership, identity, property and location. The predicates of these clauses are nouns, adjectives and locational expressions, respectively. The following three predication strategies in Erzya nonverbal predication can be identified: i. the zero-copula construction, ii. the predicative suffix construction and iii. the copula construction. It has been suggested that verbs and nouns cannot be clearly distinguished on morphological grounds when functioning as predicates in Erzya. This study shows that even though predicativity must not be considered a sufficient tool for defining parts of speech in any language, the Erzya lexical classes of adjective, noun and verb can be distinguished from each other also in predicate position. The relative frequency and degree of obligation for using the predicative suffix construction decreases when moving left to right on the scale verb adjective/locative noun ( identificational statement). The predicative suffix is the main pattern in the present tense over the whole domain of nonverbal predication in Standard Erzya, but if it is replaced it is most likely to be with a zero-copula construction in a nominal predication. This study exploits the theory of (a)symmetry for the first time in order to describe verbal vs. nonverbal predication. It is shown that the asymmetry of paradigms and constructions differentiates the lexical classes. Asymmetrical structures are motivated by functional level asymmetry. Variation in predication as such adds to the complexity of the grammar. When symmetric structures are employed, the functional complexity of grammar decreases, even though morphological complexity increases. The genre affects the employment of predication strategies in Erzya. There are differences in the relative frequency of the patterns, and some patterns are totally lacking from some of the data. The clearest difference is that the past tense predicative suffix construction occurs relatively frequently in Standard Erzya, while it occurs infrequently in the other data. Also, the predicative suffixes of the present tense are used more regularly in written Standard Erzya than in any other genre. The genre also affects the incidence of the translative in uľ(ń)ems copula constructions. In translations from Russian to Erzya the translative case is employed relatively frequently in comparison to other data. This study reveals differences between the two Mordvinic languages Erzya and Moksha. The predicative suffixes (bound person markers) of the present tense are used more regularly in Moksha in all kinds of nonverbal predicate clauses compared to Erzya. It should further be observed that identificational statements are encoded with a predicative suffix in Moksha, but seldom in Erzya. Erzya clauses are more frequently encoded using zero-constructions, displaying agreement in number only.
Resumo:
This thesis combines a computational analysis of a comprehensive corpus of Finnish lake names with a theoretical background in cognitive linguistics. The combination results on the one hand in a description of the toponymic system and the processes involved in analogy-based naming and on the other hand some adjustments to Construction Grammar. Finnish lake names are suitable for this kind of study, as they are to a large extent semantically transparent even when relatively old. There is also a large number of them, and they are comprehensively collected in a computer database. The current work starts with an exploratory computational analysis of co-location patterns between different lake names. Such an analysis makes it possible to assess the importance of analogy and patterns in naming. Prior research has suggested that analogy plays an important role, often also in cases where there are other motivations for the name, and the current study confirms this. However, it also appears that naming patterns are very fuzzy and that their nature is somewhat hard to define in an essentially structuralist tradition. In describing toponymic structure and the processes involved in naming, cognitive linguistics presents itself as a promising theoretical basis. The descriptive formalism of Construction Grammar seems especially well suited for the task. However, now productivity becomes a problem: it is not nearly as clear-cut as the latter theory often assumes, and this is even more apparent in names than in more traditional linguistic material. The varying degree of productivity is most naturally described by a prototype-based theory. Such an approach, however, requires some adjustments to onstruction Grammar. Based on all this, the thesis proposes a descriptive model where a new name -- or more generally, a new linguistic expression -- can be formed by conceptual integration from either a single prior example or a construction generalised from a number of different prior ones. The new model accounts nicely for various aspects of naming that are problematic for the traditional description based on analogy and patterns.
Resumo:
Road traffic accidents are a large problem everywhere in the world. However, regional differences in traffic safety between countries are considerable. For example, traffic safety records are much worse in Southern Europe and the Middle East than in Northern and Western Europe. Despite the large regional differences in traffic safety, factors contributing to different accident risk figures in different countries and regions have remained largely unstudied. The general aim of this study was to investigate regional differences in traffic safety between Southern European/Middle Eastern (i.e., Greece, Iran, Turkey) and Northern/Western European (i.e., Finland, Great Britain, The Netherlands) countries and to identify factors related to these differences. We conducted seven sub-studies in which I applied a traffic culture framework, including a multi-level approach, to traffic safety. We used aggregated level data (national statistics), surveys among drivers, and data on traffic accidents and fatalities in the analyses. In the first study, we investigated the influence of macro level factors (i.e., economic, societal, and cultural) on traffic safety across countries. The results showed that a high GNP per capita and conservatism correlated with a low number of traffic fatalities, whereas a high degree of uncertainty avoidance, neuroticism, and egalitarianism correlated with a high number of traffic fatalities. In the second, third, and fourth studies, we examined whether the conceptualisation of road user characteristics (i.e., driver behaviour and performance) varied across traffic cultures and how these factors determined overall safety, and the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results showed that the factorial agreement for driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive driving) and performance (i.e., safety skills) was unsatisfactory in Greece, Iran, and Turkey, where the lack of social tolerance and interpersonal aggressive violations seem to be important characteristics of driving. In addition, we found that driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive violations and errors) mediated the relationship between culture/country and accidents. Besides, drivers from "dangerous" Southern European countries and Iran scored higher on aggressive violations and errors than did drivers from "safe" Northern European countries. However, "speeding" appeared to be a "pan-cultural" problem in traffic. Similarly, aggressive driving seems largely depend on road users' interactions and drivers' interpretation (i.e., cognitive biases) of the behaviour of others in every country involved in the study. Moreover, in all countries, a risky general driving style was mostly related to being young and male. The results of the fifth and sixth studies showed that among young Turkish drivers, gender stereotypes (i.e., masculinity and femininity) greatly influence driver behaviour and performance. Feminine drivers were safety-oriented whereas masculine drivers were skill-oriented and risky drivers. Since everyday driving tasks involve not only erroneous (i.e., risky or dangerous driving) or correct performance (i.e., normal habitual driving), but also "positive" driver behaviours, we developed a reliable scale for measuring "positive" driver behaviours among Turkish drivers in the seventh study. Consequently, I revised Reason's model [Reason, J. T., 1990. Human error. Cambridge University Press: New York] of aberrant driver behaviour to represent a general driving style, including all possible intentional behaviours in traffic while evaluating the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results emphasise the importance of economic, societal and cultural factors, general driving style and skills, which are related to exposure, cognitive biases as well as age, sex, and gender, in differences between countries in traffic safety.
Resumo:
The von Hippel-lindau (VHL) disease is a dominantly inherited neoplastic disorder which predisposes patients to multiple tumours including capillary haemangioblastomas (CHBs), pheochromocytomas (PCCs), renal cell carcinomas (RCCs). CHBs are the most common manifestations of VHL disease, occurring sporadically or as a manifestation of VHL disease. Inactivation of the VHL gene at 3p25-26 is believed to cause both familial and sporadic VHL-associated tumours and germ-line mutation of the VHL gene have been detected in 100% of the CHBs studied. However, a limited number of sporadic CHBs, PCCs display VHL inactivation. Other molecular alterations involved in tumourigenesis of sporadic CHBs, PCCs remain largely unknown. The purpose of the present work was to search for genetic alterations, or other mechanisms of inactivation, in addition to the VHL gene, that may be important in the development of VHL-associated tumours. Though less satisfactory than cure, prevention and early detection are the most promising and feasible means reducing cancer morbidity and mortality. This work is based on the view that increasing knowledge about the molecular events underlying tumour development will eventually aid in early detection and lead to improved treatment. We evaluated a large set of VHL-associated patients, searched for a clinical and radiologic signs of the disease. We succesfully performed a germ-line mutation analysis and characterised three patient groups, VHL, suspect VHL and sporadic, a germ-line mutation analysis revealed a 50% mutation rate only in the VHL groups, no sporadic or suspect cases displayed any mutation. We also utilized comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) to screen for DNA copy number changes in both sporadic and VHL-associated CHB. Our analysis revealed (27%) DNA copy number losses. The most common finding was loss of chromosomal arm 6q, seen in (23%) cases, No differences were noted between VHL-associated and sporadic tumours. Furthermore a loss of heterozygosity (LOH) study on chromosome 3p and 6q was done with the purpose to determine allele losses not observable by CGH, and to uncover the location of putative tumour suppressor genes important in CHB and PCC tumourigenesis. We identified loss of chromosome 6q and a minimal deleted area at 6q23-24 in CHBs. We also showed LOH at 6q23-24 in PCCs and identified the ZAC1 (6q24-25) as a candidate gene, ZAC1 is a maternally imprinted tumour suppressor gene with anti proliferative properties. To study further the role of ZAC inactivation in CHBs, we investigated LOH, promoter hypermethylation and expression status of the ZAC1 gene in mainly sporadic CHBs. Our LOH analysis revealed that the majority of the tumours with allele loss. The gene promoter methylation analysis similarly detected predominance of the methylated ZAC sequence in almost all tumours. Immunohistochemistry exhibited a strongly reduced expression of ZAC in stromal cells of all CHBs studied. Our current results indicate that the absence of the unmethylated, ZAC1 promoter sequence was highly concurrent with LOH for the ZAC1 region or 6q loss. This observation together with lack of ZAC expression, points to preferential loss of the non imprinted, expressed ZAC allele in CHB, in summary, our series of studies reveal a new chromosomal region 6q, emphasizes the importance of ZAC1 gene in the development of CHB and PCC, particularly in non-VHL associated cases.
Resumo:
In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.
Resumo:
This study evaluates how the advection of precipitation, or wind drift, between the radar volume and ground affects radar measurements of precipitation. Normally precipitation is assumed to fall vertically to the ground from the contributing volume, and thus the radar measurement represents the geographical location immediately below. In this study radar measurements are corrected using hydrometeor trajectories calculated from measured and forecasted winds, and the effect of trajectory-correction on the radar measurements is evaluated. Wind drift statistics for Finland are compiled using sounding data from two weather stations spanning two years. For each sounding, the hydrometeor phase at ground level is estimated and drift distance calculated using different originating level heights. This way the drift statistics are constructed as a function of range from radar and elevation angle. On average, wind drift of 1 km was exceeded at approximately 60 km distance, while drift of 10 km was exceeded at 100 km distance. Trajectories were calculated using model winds in order to produce a trajectory-corrected ground field from radar PPI images. It was found that at the upwind side from the radar the effective measuring area was reduced as some trajectories exited the radar volume scan. In the downwind side areas near the edge of the radar measuring area experience improved precipitation detection. The effect of trajectory-correction is most prominent in instant measurements and diminishes when accumulating over longer time periods. Furthermore, measurements of intensive and small scale precipitation patterns benefit most from wind drift correction. The contribution of wind drift on the uncertainty of estimated Ze (S) - relationship was studied by simulating the effect of different error sources to the uncertainty in the relationship coefficients a and b. The overall uncertainty was assumed to consist of systematic errors of both the radar and the gauge, as well as errors by turbulence at the gauge orifice and by wind drift of precipitation. The focus of the analysis is error associated with wind drift, which was determined by describing the spatial structure of the reflectivity field using spatial autocovariance (or variogram). This spatial structure was then used with calculated drift distances to estimate the variance in radar measurement produced by precipitation drift, relative to the other error sources. It was found that error by wind drift was of similar magnitude with error by turbulence at gauge orifice at all ranges from radar, with systematic errors of the instruments being a minor issue. The correction method presented in the study could be used in radar nowcasting products to improve the estimation of visibility and local precipitation intensities. The method however only considers pure snow, and for operational purposes some improvements are desirable, such as melting layer detection, VPR correction and taking solid state hydrometeor type into account, which would improve the estimation of vertical velocities of the hydrometeors.
Resumo:
This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.