Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Tests for Cointegration Rank and the Initial Condition

Many economic events involve initial observations that substantially deviate from long-run steady state. Initial conditions of this type have been found to impact diversely on the power of univariate unit root tests, whereas the impact on multivariate tests is largely unknown. This paper investigates the impact of the initial condition on tests for cointegration rank. We compare the local power of the widely used likelihood ratio (LR) test with the local power of a test based on the eigenvalues of the companion matrix. We find that the power of the LR test is increasing in the magnitude of the initial condition, whereas the power of the other test is decreasing. The behaviour of the tests is investigated in an application to price convergence.

The North in the Old English Orosius : A Geographical Narrative in Context

This doctoral dissertation examines the description of the North as it appears in the Old English Orosius (OE Or.) in the form of the travel accounts by Ohthere and Wulfstan and a catalogue of peoples of Germania. The description is discussed in the context of ancient and early medieval textual and cartographic descriptions of the North, with a special emphasis on Anglo-Saxon sources and the intellectual context of the reign of King Alfred (871-899). This is the first time that these sources, a multidisciplinary approach and secondary literature, also from Scandinavia and Finland, have been brought together. The discussion is source-based, and archaeological theories and geographical ideas are used to support the primary evidence. This study belongs to the disciplines of early medieval literature and (cultural) history, Anglo-Saxon studies, English philology, and historical geography. The OE Or. was probably part of Alfred s educational campaign, which conveyed royal ideology to the contemporary elite. The accounts and catalogue are original interpolations which represent a unique historical source for the Viking Age. They contain unparalleled information about peoples and places in Fennoscandia and the southern Baltic and sailing voyages to the White Sea, the Danish lands, and the Lower Vistula. The historical-philological analysis reveals an emphasis on wealth and property, rank, luxury goods, settlement patterns, and territorial divisions. Trade is strongly implied by the mentions of central places and northern products, such as walrus ivory. The references to such peoples as the Finnas, the Cwenas, and the Beormas appear in connection with information about geography and subsistence in the far North. Many of the topics in the accounts relate to Anglo-Saxon aristocratic culture and interests. The accounts focus on the areas associated with the Northmen, the Danes and the Este. These areas resonated in the Anglo-Saxon geographical imagination: they were curious about the northern margin of the world, their own continental ancestry and the geography of their homeland of Angeln, and they had an interest in the Goths and their connection with the southern Baltic in mythogeography. The non-judgemental representation of the North as generally peaceful and relatively normal place is related to Alfredian and Orosian ideas about the unity and spreading of Christendom, and to desires for unity among the Germani and for peace with the Vikings, who were settling in England. These intellectual contexts reflect the innovative and organizational forces of Alfred s reign. The description of the North in the OE Or. can be located in the context of the Anglo-Saxon worldview and geographical mindset. It mirrors the geographical curiosity expressed in other Anglo-Saxon sources, such as the poem Widsith and the Anglo-Saxon mappa mundi. The northern section of this early eleventh-century world map is analyzed in detail here for the first time. It is suggested that the section depicts the North Atlantic and the Scandinavian Peninsula. The survey of ancient and early medieval sources provides a comparative context for the OE Or. In this material, produced by such authors as Strabo, Pliny, Tacitus, Jordanes, and Rimbert, the significance of the North was related to the search for and definition of the northern edge of the world, universal accounts of the world, the northern homeland in the origin stories of the gentes, and Carolingian expansion and missionary activity. These frameworks were transmitted to Anglo-Saxon literary culture, where the North occurs in the context of the definition of Britain s place in the world.

Language and Letters of the Bluestocking Network : Sociolinguistic Issues in Eighteenth Century Epistolary English

This study deals with language change and variation in the correspondence of the eighteenth-century Bluestocking circle, a social network which provided learned men and women with an informal environment for the pursuit of scholarly entertainment. Elizabeth Montagu (1718 1800), a notable social hostess and a Shakespearean scholar, was one of their key figures. The study presents the reconstruction of Elizabeth Montagu s social networks from her youth to her later years with a special focus on the Bluestocking circle, and linguistic research on private correspondence between Montagu and her Bluestocking friends and family members between the years 1738 1778. The epistolary language use is investigated using the methods and frameworks of corpus linguistics, historical sociolinguistics, and social network analysis. The approach is diachronic and concerns real-time language change. The research is based on a selection of manuscript letters which I have edited and compiled into an electronic corpus (Bluestocking Corpus). I have also devised a network strength scale in order to quantify the strength of network ties and to compare the results of the linguistic research with the network analysis. The studies range from the reconstruction and analysis of Elizabeth Montagu s most prominent social networks to the analysis of changing morphosyntactic features and spelling variation in Montagu s and her network members correspondence. The linguistic studies look at the use of the progressive construction, preposition stranding and pied piping, and spelling variation in terms of preterite and past participle endings in the regular paradigm (-ed, - d, -d, - t, -t) and full / contracted spellings of auxiliary verbs. The results are analysed in terms of social network membership, sociolinguistic variables of the correspondents, and, when relevant, aspects of eighteenth-century linguistic prescriptivism. The studies showed a slight diachronic increase in the use of the progressive, a significant decrease of the stigmatised preposition stranding and increase of pied piping, and relatively informal but socially controlled epistolary spelling. Certain significant changes in Elizabeth Montagu s language use over the years could be attributed to her increasingly prominent social standing and the changes in her social networks, and the strength of ties correlated strongly with the use of the progressive in the Bluestocking Corpus. Gender, social rank, and register in terms of kinship/friendship had a significant influence in language use, and an effect of prescriptivism could also be detected. Elizabeth Montagu s network ties resulted in language variation in terms of network membership, her own position in a given network, and the social factors that controlled eighteenth-century interaction. When all the network ties are strong, linguistic variation seems to be essentially linked to the social variables of the informants.

Moderneja ryijyjä, metritavaraa ja käsityötä : Tekstiilitaide ja nykyaikaistuva taideteollisuus Suomessa maailmansotien välisenä aikana

Modern ryijys, fabric by the yard and handicrafts. Finnish textile art and modernizing applied art during the inter-war years Textile art was in the 1920s and 1930s in the front rank of Finnish applied art and design. Modern ryijys, tapestries and fabrics by the yard by contemporary textile artists were on show in Finland and abroad. Textile art had also become interesting commercially, especially in interior textiles of modern homes. The research uses sources of the Ornamo Association of Decorative Artists, for example the Ornamo year books published from 1927, the Finnish Society of Crafts and Design and the country s only school of applied arts, the Central School of Arts and Crafts and the Museum of Applied Arts maintained by the society and also the national specialist organisation the Friends of Finnish Handicraft. It also refers to the magazines Käsiteollisuus and Kotiliesi. The art historical dissertation studies the renaissance of weaving art of the inter-war years in Finland. It problematizes the relation of the succesfull and appreciated textile art to the concept of breakthrough of Modernism (Functionalism). With the material from textile artists activities it questions the prevailing idea of slow modernization of Finnish applied art and design and challenges the polarization of craft and industry in the discourses of Modernisms of design. The public discussions about modernization of design and applied art where textile art and especially the ryijy got sometimes into difficult positions are interpreted as power struggles. After taking independence in 1917 the Finnish tradition of ryijy rugs was set as a symbol of the original culture of the young nation. The research studies the development of the so called art ryijy and the notions and meanings of hand weaving in the national context and also in relation to contemporary events in international applied art and design. It highlights the continuity of hand crafted production of textiles and the strong position of textile artists working in this field. The research opens new perspectives to Finnish textile artists by showing their activities as entrepreneurs in their own weaving studios or design studios and referring to their many relations and functions as pattern designers and educators in the growing handicraft industries.

Dependence Logic: Investigations into Higher-Order Semantics Defined on Teams

This thesis is a study of a rather new logic called dependence logic and its closure under classical negation, team logic. In this thesis, dependence logic is investigated from several aspects. Some rules are presented for quantifier swapping in dependence logic and team logic. Such rules are among the basic tools one must be familiar with in order to gain the required intuition for using the logic for practical purposes. The thesis compares Ehrenfeucht-Fraïssé (EF) games of first order logic and dependence logic and defines a third EF game that characterises a mixed case where first order formulas are measured in the formula rank of dependence logic. The thesis contains detailed proofs of several translations between dependence logic, team logic, second order logic and its existential fragment. Translations are useful for showing relationships between the expressive powers of logics. Also, by inspecting the form of the translated formulas, one can see how an aspect of one logic can be expressed in the other logic. The thesis makes preliminary investigations into proof theory of dependence logic. Attempts focus on finding a complete proof system for a modest yet nontrivial fragment of dependence logic. A key problem is identified and addressed in adapting a known proof system of classical propositional logic to become a proof system for the fragment, namely that the rule of contraction is needed but is unsound in its unrestricted form. A proof system is suggested for the fragment and its completeness conjectured. Finally, the thesis investigates the very foundation of dependence logic. An alternative semantics called 1-semantics is suggested for the syntax of dependence logic. There are several key differences between 1-semantics and other semantics of dependence logic. 1-semantics is derived from first order semantics by a natural type shift. Therefore 1-semantics reflects an established semantics in a coherent manner. Negation in 1-semantics is a semantic operation and satisfies the law of excluded middle. A translation is provided from unrestricted formulas of existential second order logic into 1-semantics. Also game theoretic semantics are considerd in the light of 1-semantics.

On linear order and computation : The expressiveness of interactive computations on linear orders and computations indexed by ordinals

We solve the Dynamic Ehrenfeucht-Fra\"iss\'e Game on linear orders for both players, yielding a normal form for quantifier-rank equivalence classes of linear orders in first-order logic, infinitary logic, and generalized-infinitary logics with linearly ordered clocks. We show that Scott Sentences can be manipulated quickly, classified into local information, and consistency can be decided effectively in the length of the Scott Sentence. We describe a finite set of linked automata moving continuously on a linear order. Running them on ordinals, we compute the ordinal truth predicate and compute truth in the constructible universe of set-theory. Among the corollaries are a study of semi-models as efficient database of both model-theoretic and formulaic information, and a new proof of the atomicity of the Boolean algebra of sentences consistent with the theory of linear order -- i.e., that the finitely axiomatized theories of linear order are dense.

Finitary Abstract Elementary Classes

The research in model theory has extended from the study of elementary classes to non-elementary classes, i.e. to classes which are not completely axiomatizable in elementary logic. The main theme has been the attempt to generalize tools from elementary stability theory to cover more applications arising in other branches of mathematics. In this doctoral thesis we introduce finitary abstract elementary classes, a non-elementary framework of model theory. These classes are a special case of abstract elementary classes (AEC), introduced by Saharon Shelah in the 1980's. We have collected a set of properties for classes of structures, which enable us to develop a 'geometric' approach to stability theory, including an independence calculus, in a very general framework. The thesis studies AEC's with amalgamation, joint embedding, arbitrarily large models, countable Löwenheim-Skolem number and finite character. The novel idea is the property of finite character, which enables the use of a notion of a weak type instead of the usual Galois type. Notions of simplicity, superstability, Lascar strong type, primary model and U-rank are inroduced for finitary classes. A categoricity transfer result is proved for simple, tame finitary classes: categoricity in any uncountable cardinal transfers upwards and to all cardinals above the Hanf number. Unlike the previous categoricity transfer results of equal generality the theorem does not assume the categoricity cardinal being a successor. The thesis consists of three independent papers. All three papers are joint work with Tapani Hyttinen.

Ecology, population genetics and conservation of the African violet

The ongoing rapid fragmentation of tropical forests is a major threat to global biodiversity. This is because many of the tropical forests are so-called biodiversity 'hotspots', areas that host exceptional species richness and concentrations of endemic species. Forest fragmentation has negative ecological and genetic consequences for plant survival. Proposed reasons for plant species' loss in forest fragments are, e.g., abiotic edge effects, altered species interactions, increased genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. To be able to conserve plants in forest fragments, the ecological and genetic processes that threaten the species have to be understood. That is possible only after obtaining adequate information on their biology, including taxonomy, life history, reproduction, and spatial and genetic structure of the populations. In this research, I focused on the African violet (genus Saintpaulia), a little-studied conservation flagship from the Eastern Arc Mountains and Coastal Forests hotspot of Tanzania and Kenya. The main objective of the research was to increase understanding of the life history, ecology and population genetics of Saintpaulia that is needed for the design of appropriate conservation measures. A further aim was to provide population-level insights into the difficult taxonomy of Saintpaulia. Ecological field work was conducted in a relatively little fragmented protected forest in the Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains, in northeastern Tanzania, complemented by population genetic laboratory work and ecological experiments in Helsinki, Finland. All components of the research were conducted with Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei, which forms a taxonomically controversial population complex in the study area. My results suggest that Saintpaulia has good reproductive performance in forests with low disturbance levels in the East Usambara Mountains. Another important finding was that seed production depends on sufficient pollinator service. The availability of pollinators should thus be considered in the in situ management of threatened populations. Dynamic population stage structures were observed suggesting that the studied populations are demographically viable. High mortality of seedlings and juveniles was observed during the dry season but this was compensated by ample recruitment of new seedlings after the rainy season. Reduced tree canopy closure and substrate quality are likely to exacerbate seedling and juvenile mortality, and, therefore, forest fragmentation and disturbance are serious threats to the regeneration of Saintpaulia. Restoration of sufficient shade to enhance seedling establishment is an important conservation measure in populations located in disturbed habitats. Long-term demographic monitoring, which enables the forecasting of a population s future, is also recommended in disturbed habitats. High genetic diversities were observed in the populations, which suggest that they possess the variation that is needed for evolutionary responses in a changing environment. Thus, genetic management of the studied populations does not seem necessary as long as the habitats remain favourable for Saintpaulia. The observed high levels of inbreeding in some of the populations, and the reduced fitness of the inbred progeny compared to the outbred progeny, as revealed by the hand-pollination experiment, indicate that inbreeding and inbreeding depression are potential mechanisms contributing to the extinction of Saintpaulia populations. The relatively weak genetic divergence of the three different morphotypes of Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei lend support to the hypothesis that the populations in the Usambara/lowlands region represent a segregating metapopulation (or metapopulations), where subpopulations are adapting to their particular environments. The partial genetic and phenological integrity, and the distinct trailing habit of the morphotype 'grotei' would, however, justify its placement in a taxonomic rank of its own, perhaps in a subspecific rank.

Revision of the family Alycidae (Acariformes, Acari), with special reference to European species

The thesis provides a proposal to divide Alycidae G. Canestrini & Fanzago into two subfamilies and four tribes. This new hierarchy is based on a reassessment and reranking of new and previously known synapomorphies of the clusters concerned by cladistic analysis, using 60 morphological characters for 48 ingroup species. The basic characters of the taxa are illustrated either by SEM micrographs (Scanning Electron Microscopy) or by outline drawings. The presented classification includes the definitions of Alycini G. Canestrini & Fanzago new rank; Bimichaeliini Womersley new rank; Petralycini new rank; and the (re)descriptions of Alycus C.L. Koch, Pachygnathus Dugès, Amphialycus Zachvatkin, Bimichaelia Thor and Laminamichaelia gen. nov. The species described or redescribed are: Pachygnathus wasastjernae sp. nov. from Kvarken (Merenkurkku), Finland; Pachygnathus villosus Dugès (in Oken); Alycus roseus C.L. Koch; Alycus denasutus (Grandjean) comb. and stat. nov.; Alycus trichotus (Grandjean) comb. nov.; Alycus marinus (Schuster) comb. nov.; Amphialycus (Amphialycus) pentophthalmus Zachvatkin; Amphialycus (Amphialycus) leucogaster (Grandjean); and Amphialycus (Orthacarus) oblongus (Halbert) comb. nov.; Bimichaelia augustana (Berlese); Bimichaelia sarekensis Trägårdh; Laminamichaelia setigera (Berlese) comb. nov.; Laminamichelia arbusculosa (Grandjean) comb. nov.; Laminamichelia subnuda (Berlese) comb. nov. and Petralycus unicornis Grandjean. Fourteen nominal species were found to be junior synonymies. The importance of sensory organs in taxonomy is well recognized, but inclusion of the elaborate skin pattern seemed to improve essentially the usefulness of the prodorsal sensory area. The detailed pictures of the prodorsa of the European alycids could be used like passport photographs for the species. A database like this of prodorsa of other mite taxa as well might be an answer to future needs of species identification in soil zoology, ecology and conservation.

Outcome of singleton pregnancy after assisted reproductive treatment

Singleton pregnancies achieved by means of assisted reproductive treatment (ART) are associated with increased obstetric and neonatal risks in comparison with spontaneously conceived singleton pregnancies. The impact of infertility- and treatment-related factors on these risks is not properly understood. In addition, the psychological effects of infertility and its treatment on the experience of pregnancy have scarcely been studied. Thus, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the importance of infertility- and treatment-related factors on prediction of pregnancy outcome, obstetric and neonatal risks, fear-of-childbirth and pregnancy-related anxiety. The subjects consisted of infertile women who achieved a singleton pregnancy by means of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). The control groups comprised spontaneously conceiving women with singleton gestations. Early pregnancy outcome was assessed by means of assay of serum human chorionic gonadoptrophin (hCG) in single samples. Other outcome data were collected from patient records, national Health Registers and via prospective questionnaire surveys. Viable pregnancies were associated with significantly higher serum hCG levels 12 days after embryo transfer than non-viable pregnancies. Among singleton pregnancies, aetiological subgroup, treatment type or the number of transferred embryos did not impair the predictive value of single hCG assessment. According to the register-based data, age-, parity- and socioeconomic status- adjusted risks of gestational hypertension, preterm contractions and placenta praevia were more frequent in the ART pregnancies than in the control pregnancies. Significantly higher rates of induction of delivery and Caesarean section occurred in the ART group than in the control group. The risks of preterm birth and low birth weight (LBW) were increased after ART pregnancy. Duration or aetiology of infertility, treatment type (fresh or frozen IVF or ICSI) or rank of treatment did not contribute to the risks of preterm birth or LBW. In addition, the risks of preterm birth and LBW remained elevated in spite of of the number of transferred embryos. Although mean duration of pregnancy was shorter and mean birth weight lower in the ART pregnancies than in the control pregnancies, these differences were hardly of clinical significance. Fear-of-childbirth and pregnancy-related anxiety were equally common to women conceiving by means of ART, or spontaneously. Partnership of five to ten years appeared to be protective as regards severe fear-of-childbirth, whereas long preceding infertility (≥ seven years) had the opposite effect. In conclusion, an early hCG assessment maintained its good predictive value regardless of infertility- or patient-related factors. Further, we did not recognise any infertility- or patient-related factors that would expose infertile women to increased obstetric or neonatal risks. However, a long period of infertility was associated with severe fear-of-childbirth.

Anti-TNF treatment in juvenile idiopathic arthritis and associated uveitis : Clinical perspectives on growth, uveitis, and drug survival

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a heterogeneous group of childhood chronic arthritides, associated with chronic uveitis in 20% of cases. For JIA patients responding inadequately to conventional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), biologic therapies, anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) agents are available. In this retrospective multicenter study, 258 JIA-patients refractory to DMARDs and receiving biologic agents during 1999-2007 were included. Prior to initiation of anti-TNFs, growth velocity of 71 patients was delayed in 75% and normal in 25%. Those with delayed growth demonstrated a significant increase in growth velocity after initiation of anti-TNFs. Increase in growth rate was unrelated to pubertal growth spurt. No change was observed in skeletal maturation before and after anti-TNFs. The strongest predictor of change in growth velocity was growth rate prior to anti-TNFs. Change in inflammatory activity remained a significant predictor even after decrease in glucocorticoids was taken into account. In JIA-associated uveitis, impact of two first-line biologic agents, etanercept and infliximab, and second-line or third-line anti-TNF agent, adalimumab, was evaluated. In 108 refractory JIA patients receiving etanercept or infliximab, uveitis occurred in 45 (42%). Uveitis improved in 14 (31%), no change was observed in 14 (31%), and in 17 (38%) uveitis worsened. Uveitis improved more frequently (p=0.047) and frequency of annual uveitis flares was lower (p=0.015) in those on infliximab than in those on etanercept. In 20 patients taking adalimumab, 19 (95%) had previously failed etanercept and/or infliximab. In 7 patients (35%) uveitis improved, in one (5%) worsened, and in 12 (60%) no change occurred. Those with improved uveitis were younger and had shorter disease duration. Serious adverse events (AEs) or side-effects were not observed. Adalimumab was effective also in arthritis. Long-term drug survival (i.e. continuation rate on drug) with etanercept (n=105) vs. infliximab (n=104) was at 24 months 68% vs. 68%, and at 48 months 61% vs. 48% (p=0.194 in log-rank analysis). First-line anti-TNF agent was discontinued either due to inefficacy (etanercept 28% vs. infliximab 20%, p=0.445), AEs (7% vs. 22%, p=0.002), or inactive disease (10% vs. 16%, p=0.068). Females, patients with systemic JIA (sJIA), and those taking infliximab as the first therapy were at higher risk for treatment discontinuation. One-third switched to the second anti-TNF agent, which was discontinued less often than the first. In conclusion, in refractory JIA anti-TNFs induced enhanced growth velocity. Four-year treatment survival was comparable between etanercept and infliximab, and switching from first-line to second-line agent a reasonable therapeutic option. During anti-TNF treatment, one-third with JIA-associated anterior uveitis improved.

Pannus invasion into cartilage and bone in rheumatoid arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis is the most common of all types of arthritis and despite of intensive research etiology of the disease remains unclear. Distinctive features of rheumatic arthritis comprise continuous inflammation of synovium, in which synovial membrane expands on cartilage leading to pannus tissue formation. Pannus formation, appearance of proteolytic enzymes and osteoclast formation cause articular cartilage and bone destruction, which lead to erosions and permanent joint damage. Proteolytic pathways play major roles in the development of tissue lesions in rheumatoid arthritis. Degradation of extracellular matrix proteins is essential to pannus formation and invasion. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) form a large proteolytic enzyme family and in rheumatoid arthritis they contribute to pannus invasion by degrading extracellular matrix and to joint destruction by directly degrading the cartilage. MMP-1 and MMP-3 are shown to be increased during cell invasion and also involved in cartilage destruction. Increase of many cytokines has been observed in rheumatoid arthritis, especially TNF-α and IL-1β are studied in synovial tissue and are involved in rheumatoid inflammation and degradation of cartilage. Underlying bone resorption requires first demineralization of bone matrix with acid secreted by osteoclasts, which exposes the collagen-rich matrix for degradation. Cathepsin K is the best known enzyme involved in bone matrix degradation, however deficiency of this protein in pycnodysostosis patient did not prevent bone erosion and on the contrary pannus tissue invading to bone did not expressed much cathepsin K. These indicate that other proteinases are involved in bone degradation, perhaps also via their capability to replace the role of other enzymes especially in diseases like pycnodysostosis or during medication e.g. using cathepsin K inhibitors. Multinuclear osteoclasts are formed also in pannus tissue, which enable the invasion into underlying bone matrix. Pannus tissue express a receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand (RANKL), an essential factor for osteoclast differentiation and a disintegrin and a metalloproteinase 8 (ADAM8), an osteoclast-activating factors, involved in formation of osteoclast-like giant cells by promoting fusion of mononuclear precursor cells. The understanding of pannus invasion and degradation of extracellular matrix in rheumatic arthritis will open us new more specific methods to prevent this destructive joint disease.

Prognostic tumour markers in pancreatic cancer

Background. Pancreatic cancer is one of the major causes of cancer death in the industrialised world. The overall survival of patients with ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma is poor: 5-year survival is only 0.2 to 4%. Tumour stage and histological grade are used as prognostic markers in pancreatic cancer. However, there are differences in survival within stages and histological grades. New, additional and more accurate prognostic tools are needed. Aims. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the tissue expression of potential and promising tumour markers p27, tenascin C, syndecan-1, COX-2 and MMP-2 are associated with clinicopathological parameters in pancreatic cancer. The expression of p27, tenascin C and syndecan-1 was also evaluated in acute and chronic pancreatitis. The main purpose in the study was to find new prognostic markers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Patients. The study included 147 patients with histologically verified pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated at Helsinki University Central Hospital from 1974 to1998. Methods. The expression of tumour marker antigens was demonstrated by immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies against p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2. The results were compared with clinicopathological variables, i.e. age, sex, TNM stage and histological grade. Survival analyses were performed with univariate Kaplan-Meier life-tables and the log-rank test, while multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression. Results. Pancreatic adenocarcinomas expressed p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2 in 30, 94, 92, 36 and 50% of the samples, respectively. Loss of p27 expression was associated with poor prognosis in stage I and II pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1 expression was an independent prognostic marker in pancreatic cancer, whereas epithelial syndecan-1 expression predicted better prognosis only in stage I and II disease. Tenascin C expression did not correlate with survival but was associated with differentiation. COX-2 expression was associated with poor outcome and was an independent prognostic factor. Epithelial MMP-2 correlated with poor prognosis in pancreatic cancer. Conclusion: p27 and epithelial syndecan-1 are prognostic markers in early (stage I and II) pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1, COX-2 and epithelial MMP-2 are prognostic factors in ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma.