Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Conducting Gestures : Institutional and Educational Construction of Conductorship in Finland, 1973-1993

Anu Konttinen: Conducting Gestures Institutional and Educational Construction of Conductorship in Finland, 1973-1993. This doctoral thesis concentrates on those Finnish conductors who have participated in Professor Jorma Panula s conducting class at the Sibelius Academy during the years 1973 1993. The starting point was conducting as a myth, and the goal has been to find its practical opposite the practical core of the profession. What has been studied is whether one can theorise and analyse this core, and how. The theoretical goal has been to find out what kind of social construction conductorship is as a historical, sociological and practical phenomenon. In practical terms, this means taking the historical and social concept of a great conductor apart to look for the practical core gestural communication. The most important theoretical tool is the concept of gesture. The idea has been to sketch a theoretical model based on gestural communication between a conductor and an orchestra, and to give one example of the many possible ways of studying the gestures of a conductor.

Makt, konst, elit - konstfältets positioner, relationer och resurser i 1940- och 1950-talens Helsingfors

The dissertation examines the power mechanisms and institutional power hierarchies of the 1940s-1950s era arts elite in Helsinki and their influence on issues of taste in the visual arts. For the purposes of this study, the elite is understood to consist mainly of the board members of the principal elected bodies in the field of the arts. The theoretical framework employed is based on Pierre Bourdieu s field theory and the network perspective. The author has examined what the key, pervasive valuations were that governed the exercising of power by the arts elite in issues of taste, involving determination of who was an acknowledged artist and what was good art. The dissertation demonstrates that this exercising of power was governed by certain collective practices which maintained the illusion that the exercising of power was democratic and based on artistic quality. These practices were the corporate system, using artistic arguments in issues of taste, and using networks in the exercising of power. The struggle in the field of the arts was about who ultimately was entitled to define the value of contemporary art; the issue did not arise regarding historical art. Artists managed to gain a leading position as gatekeepers in issues regarding contemporary art. The author discusses a number of conflicts in the field of the arts that highlight the institutional hierarchies and the capital held by the various players. The structural changes that occurred in administration in the field of cultural production in the 1950s led to the separation of bureaucratic competence on the one hand and aesthetic competence on the other. There was a hierarchy in the field of the arts between institutions, between instruments of legitimisation, and between the symbolic and social capital of players in the field. The hierarchy in the arts ultimately depended on how well the elite could influence tastes through the instruments at their disposal. The various instruments of legitimisation grants, purchases, etc. were ranked differently in the evaluation of acknowledged artists and good art. The dissertation discusses what values, in the form of types of symbolic capital, the arts elite embraced and what role these played in the elite s exercising of power, with particular focus on gender, language, region and economic capital. The aesthetic capital of an artist was of only minor importance in the exercising of power by the arts elite. The dissertation further discusses the points of contact between the arts elite and players in other fields, such as the economic, media and consumer fields. When the arts elite, through the Academy of Fine Arts, became an active player in the art market, this led to a hierarchy where the division between acknowledged and not-acknowledged galleries became sharper.

Vuorovaikutus ääniterapiassa : Keskustelunanalyyttinen tutkimus harjoittelun rakenteesta, terapeutin antamasta palautteesta ja oppimisesta

This conversation analytical study analyses the interactional practices adopted by speech therapists and their clients during their training in voice therapy. This study also describes how learning takes place during the therapy process. In contrast to traditional voice therapy studies, change is examined here by using qualitative research methodology, namely conversation analysis. This study describes the structures of interaction in voice therapy, shows how the shortcomings in the client s performance are evaluated and corrected and finally, how the voice training sequence and the participation changes during therapy. The database consists of 51 videotaped voice therapy sessions from six clients with voice disorders. The analytic focus is on the practices in one voice training exercise of the trilled /r/. All the sequences of this exercise (in total 36) and all adjacency pairs within (N = 627) were transcribed and analysed in detail. This study shows that voice training consists of successive model imitation adjacency pairs. This adjacency pair works as a resource in voice training. Furthermore, the use of this particular adjacency pair is an institutional practice in all therapies in this study. The structure of interaction in voice training sequences resembles the practices found in aphasia therapy and in speech therapy of children, as well as the practices of educational and counselling interaction and physiotherapy. More than half of the adjacency pairs were expanded to three (or more) part structures as client s responses were typically followed by therapist s feedback. With their feedback turns, therapists: 1) maintain training practice, 2) evaluate the problem of client s performance, 3) deliver information, 4) activate the client to observe the performance and 5) assist her in correcting the performance. This study describes the four different ways that therapists help their clients to improve the performance after encountering a problem. The longitudinal data shows that learning in therapy is manifested in the changing participation. As clients learn to identify their voice features, they can participate in evaluating or correcting their performances by themselves. This study describes the recurrent professional practices of voice therapists and shows how the institutional commitments of voice therapy are managed in and through talk and interaction. The study also provides detailed description of the management of help in voice training. By describing the interaction in training sequences, this study expands the conception of voice rehabilitation and how it can be researched. The results demonstrate that the learning process and therapy outcomes can be assessed by analysing interaction in therapy. Moreover, this analysis lays the foundation for a novel understanding of the practices in speech therapy and for the development of speech therapy theory. By revealing the activities of interaction, it also makes it possible to discuss them explicitly with speech therapy students. Key words: voice therapy, conversation analysis, institutional interaction, learning, change in participation, feedback, evaluation, error correction, self-repair

Evaluation of driving ability of the disabled persons in the context of the psychological activity theory

In the future the number of the disabled drivers requiring a special evaluation of their driving ability will increase due to the ageing population, as well as the progress of adaptive technology. This places pressure on the development of the driving evaluation system. Despite quite intensive research there is still no consensus concerning what is the factual situation in a driver evaluation (methodology), which measures should be included in an evaluation (methods), and how an evaluation has to be carried out (practise). In order to find answers to these questions we carried out empirical studies, and simultaneously elaborated upon a conceptual model for driving and a driving evaluation. The findings of empirical studies can be condensed into the following points: 1) A driving ability defined by the on-road driving test is associated with different laboratory measures depending on the study groups. Faults in the laboratory tests predicted faults in the on-road driving test in the novice group, whereas slowness in the laboratory predicted driving faults in the experienced drivers group. 2) The Parkinson study clearly showed that even an experienced clinician cannot reliably accomplish an evaluation of a disabled person’s driving ability without collaboration with other specialists. 3) The main finding of the stroke study was that the use of a multidisciplinary team as a source of information harmonises the specialists’ evaluations. 4) The patient studies demonstrated that the disabled persons themselves, as well as their spouses, are as a rule not reliable evaluators. 5) From the safety point of view, perceptible operations with the control devices are not crucial, but correct mental actions which the driver carries out with the help of the control devices are of greatest importance. 6) Personality factors including higher-order needs and motives, attitudes and a degree of self-awareness, particularly a sense of illness, are decisive when evaluating a disabled person’s driving ability. Personality is also the main source of resources concerning compensations for lower-order physical deficiencies and restrictions. From work with the conceptual model we drew the following methodological conclusions: First, the driver has to be considered as a holistic subject of the activity, as a multilevel hierarchically organised system of an organism, a temperament, an individuality, and a personality where the personality is the leading subsystem from the standpoint of safety. Second, driving as a human form of a sociopractical activity, is also a hierarchically organised dynamic system. Third, in an evaluation of driving ability it is a question of matching these two hierarchically organised structures: a subject of an activity and a proper activity. Fourth, an evaluation has to be person centred but not disease-, function- or method centred. On the basis of our study a multidisciplinary team (practitioner, driving school teacher, psychologist, occupational therapist) is recommended for use in demanding driver evaluations. Primary in a driver’s evaluations is a coherent conceptual model while concrete methods of evaluations may vary. However, the on-road test must always be performed if possible.

Opettajan ja vanhemman vuorovaikutus ja keskustelun kehykset koululaisen kehityskeskusteluissa

The aim of the study is to describe the consultation discussions between the teacher, parents and the student. The structure and the interaction of the conversation is in the focus of the study. The study explicates the organization of the interaction and orientation of the participants in the conversation. The study approaches conversation as a dynamic activity and studies it from the point of view of the participants. Assessment is one of the themes involved in the teacher-parent-student consultation discussions. Assessment as a duty of the school brings an institutional aspect in the conversation, but the ways it is implemented and expressed varies in the conversational situations. Participants communication and interaction in the situation influences the ways the consultation discussions are carried out. The framework of the study is based on the ethno methodological approach where a social situation and its meaning is seen negotiated by the participants. The interest of the study is to find out how the participants implement mutual understanding and how it can be observed in their interaction. Quantitatively, the interaction of the participants is described in the framework of the interaction analysis and linked to the socio-emotional and rational aspects of the interaction. The empirical part of the study consists of data collected with questionnaires and videotaped conversations. The main research problems of the study are, how the teachers and parents described the consultation discussions and how the interaction of the teacher, the parent and the student is organized during the conversation. The background of the study is linked to the previous studies concerning co-operation between the teacher and the parent and home-school relationship. This part of the study aims to enlighten how the consultation discussions are part of the co-operation in the school context. The questionnaires link the consultation discussions to the every day co-operation between the teacher and the family. Expectations and results described by the parents and teachers are analysed. Videotaped data is both analysed quantitatively based on interaction analysis and approached with the ethno methodological interpretation. The interest of my study is, how people participate in the situation of consultation discussion, how they orientate in it and influence the conversation. The analyses of the consultation discussions are based on the both quantitative interaction analysis and ethno methodological frame analysis. With the theoretical approach of my study I want to describe and enlighten the organization of the interaction and ways of orientation of the participants in consultation discussions. Keywords: consultation discussion, interaction, evaluation, orientation in the conversation, home-school cooperation, quantitative interaction analysis, frame analysis

Integrating biodiversity conservation into forestry : an empirical analysis of institutional adaptation

Integrating biodiversity conservation into forest management in non-industrial private forests requires changes in the practices of those public and private actors that have implementing responsibilities and whose strategic and operational opportunities are at stake. Understanding this kind of context-dependent institutional adaptation requires bridging between two analytical approaches: policy implementation and organizational adaptation, backed up with empirical analysis. The empirical analyses recapitulated in this thesis summary address organizational competences, specialization, professional judgment, and organizational networks. The analyses utilize qualitative and quantitative data from public and private sector organizations as well as associations. The empirical analyses produced stronger signals of policy implementation than of organizational adaptation. The organizations recognized the policy and social demand for integrating biodiversity conservation into forest management and their professionals were in favor of conserving biodiversity. However, conservation was integrated to forest management so tightly that it could be said to be subsumed by mainstream forestry. The organizations had developed some competences for conservation but the competences did not differentiate among the organizations other than illustrating the functional differences between industry, administration and associations. The networks that organizations depended on consisted of traditional forestry actors and peers both in planning policy and at the operational level. The results show that he demand for biodiversity conservation has triggered incremental changes in organizations. They can be considered inert regarding this challenge. Isomorphism is advanced by hierarchical guidance and standardization, and by professional norms. Analytically, this thesis contributes to the understanding of organizational behavior across the public and private sector boundaries. The combination of a policy implementation approach inherent in analysis of public policies in hierarchical administration settings, and organizational adaptation typically applied to private sector organizations, highlights the importance of institutional interpretation. Institutional interpretation serves the understanding of the empirically identified diversions from the basic tenets of the two approaches. Attention to institutions allows identification of the overlap of the traditionally segregated approaches.

Petusta pitsaan : Ruokahuollon järjestelyt kriisiaikojen Suomessa

From bark bread to pizza - Food and exceptional circumstances: reactions of Finnish society to crises of food supply This study on the food supply under exceptional circumstances lies within the nutritional, historical and social sciences. The perspective and questions come under nutrition science, but are part of social decision-making. The study focuses on the first and second world wars as well as on contemporary society at the beginning of the 21st century. The main purpose of this study is to explore how Finnish society has responded to crises and what measures it has taken to sustain institutional food services and the food supply of households. The particular study interests include the school catering and food services in hospitals during the world wars. The situation in households is reflected in the counseling work carried out by state-run or civic organisations. Interest also focuses on the action of the scientific community. The decisions made in Finland are projected onto the solutions developed in some other European countries. The study is based primarily on the archive documents and annual reports prepared by food and health care authorities. Major source materials include scientific and professional publications. The evaluation of the situation in contemporary Finnish society is based on corresponding emergency plans and guidelines. The written material is supplemented by discussions with experts. Food rationing during the WWI and WWII differed in extent, details and unity. The food intake of some population groups was occasionally inadequate both in quantity, quality and safety. The counseling of the public focused on promoting self-sufficiency, improving cooking skills and widening food habits. One of the most vulnerable groups in regard to nutrition was long-term patients in institutions. As for future development, the world wars were never-theless important periods for public food services and counseling practices. WWII was also an important period for product development in the food industry. Significant work on food substitutes was carried out by Professor Carl Tigerstedt during WWI. The research of Professors A. I. Virtanen and Paavo Simola during WWII focused on vitamins. Crises threatening societies now differ from those faced a hundred years ago. Finland is bet-ter prepared, but in many ways more vulnerable to and dependent on other actors. Food rationing is a severe means of handling the scarcity of food, which is why contemporary society relies primarily on preparedness planning. Civic organisations played a key role during the world wars, and establishing an emergency food supply remains on their agenda. Although the objective of protecting the population remains the same for nutrition, food production, and food consumption, threat scenarios and the knowledge and skill levels of citizens are constantly changing. Continuous monitoring and evaluation is therefore needed.