Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

Management of bushland vegetation using rainwater harvesting in eastern Kenya.

Microcatchment water harvesting (MCWH) improved the survival and growth of planted trees on heavy soils in eastern Kenya five to six years after planting. In the best method, the cross-tied furrow microcatchments, the mean annual increments (MAI; based on the average biomass of living trees multiplied by tree density and survival) of the total and usable biomass in Prosopis juliflora were 2787 and 1610 kg ha-1 a-1 respectively, when the initial tree density was 500 to 1667 trees per hectare. Based on survival, the indigenous Acacia horrida, A. mellifera and A. zanzibarica were the most suitable species for planting using MCWH. When both survival and yield were considered, a local seed source of the introduced P. juliflora was superior to all other species. The MAI in MCWH was at best distinctly higher than that in the natural vegetation (163­307 and 66­111 kg ha-1 a-1 for total and usable biomass respectively); this cannot satisfy the fuelwood demand of concentrated populations, such as towns or irrigation schemes. The density of seeds of woody species in the topsoil was 40.1 seeds m-2 in the Acacia-Commiphora bushland and 12.6 seeds m-2 in the zone between the bushland and the Tana riverine forest. Rehabilitation of woody vegetation using the soil seed bank alone proved difficult due to the lack of seeds of desirable species. The regeneration and dynamics of woody vegetation were also studied both in cleared and undisturbed bushland. A sub-type of Acacia-Commiphora bushland was identified as Acacia reficiens bushland, in which the dominant Commiphora species is C. campestris. Most of the woody species did not have even-aged populations but cohort structures that were skewed towards young individuals. The woody vegetation and the status of soil nutrients were estimated to recover in 15­20 years on Vertic Natrargid soils after total removal of above-ground vegetation.

Traditionally Protected Forests´ Role within Transforming Natural Resource Management Regimes in Taita Hills, Kenya

In Taita Hills, south-eastern Kenya, remnants of indigenous mountain rainforests play a crucial role as water towers and socio-cultural sites. They are pressurized due to poverty, shortage of cultivable land and the fading of traditional knowledge. This study examines the traditional ecological knowledge of Taitas and the ways it may be applied within transforming natural resource management regimes. I have analyzed some justifications for and hindrances to ethnodevelopment and participatory forest management in light of recently renewed Kenyan forest policies. Mixed methods were applied by combining an ethnographic approach with participatory GIS. I learned about traditionally protected forests and their ecological and cultural status through a seek out the expert method and with remote sensing data and tools. My informants were: 107 household interviewees, 257 focus group participants, 73 key informants and 87 common informants in participatory mapping. Religious leaders and state officials shared their knowledge for this study. I have gained a better understanding of the traditionally protected forests and sites through examining their ecological characteristics and relation to social dynamics, by evaluating their strengths and hindrances as sites for conservation of cultural and biological diversity. My results show that, these sites are important components of a complex socio-ecological system, which has symbolical status and sacred and mystical elements within it, that contributes to the connectivity of remnant forests in the agroforestry dominated landscape. Altogether, 255 plant species and 220 uses were recognized by the tradition experts, whereas 161 species with 108 beneficial uses were listed by farmers. Out of the traditionally protected forests studied 47 % were on private land and 23% on community land, leaving 9% within state forest reserves. A paradigm shift in conservation is needed; the conservation area approach is not functional for private lands or areas trusted upon communities. The role of traditionally protected forests in community-based forest management is, however, paradoxal, since communal approaches suggests equal participation of people, whereas management of these sites has traditionally been the duty of solely accredited experts in the village. As modernization has gathered pace such experts have become fewer. Sacredness clearly contributes but, it does not equal conservation. Various social, political and economic arrangements further affect the integrity of traditionally protected forests and sites, control of witchcraft being one of them. My results suggest that the Taita have a rich traditional ecological knowledge base, which should be more determinately integrated into the natural resource management planning processes.

Community-based Ecotourism as a Sustainable Development Option in the Taita Hills, Kenya

This study aims at identifying the existing and potential resources, as well as recognizing the hinderances, for community-based ecotourism development in the Taita Hills in south-eastern Kenya. The indigenous mountain rain forests on the hills are rich in biodiversity, but severely degraded because of encroachment caused by the dynamics of increased population, socio-politics and economics. The research problems are based on the hypothesis that there is no tourism in the Taita Hills generating income for the local economy and high population density combined with poverty creates a need for alternative employment opportunities as well as for sustainable ways of forest resource management. The data for this study was gathered during two field trips in Kenya, in January-February 2004 and 2005, as a part of the Taita Project within the Department of Geography at the University of Helsinki. The qualitative methods used consist of RRA and PRA techniques, in-depth interviews, a structured questionnaire and literature analysis as well as attendance on excursions and a workshop with conservation experts and officials. Four case areas in the Taita Hills are studied. The study concludes that alternative livelihoods are needed among the Taita Hills´ rural population and community-based ecotourism is seen as a way of bringing financial benefits for households as well as reviving the fading cultural traditions and indigenous knowledge about forest use. The governmental policies, district level development plans and some NGOs support ecotourism development. The Forest Act 2005 forms base for local participation in forest management. The unique natural features, the welcoming Taita-culture and the location in the coastal tourism circle favour Taita Hills. However, this kind of development has its risks, such as too rapid change of sorest usage level and the exposure of communities to an ecotourism treadmill process. The costbenefit ration of marketing for hard ecotourists is generally low and the tourism infrastructure needs upgrading in the Taita Hills. More tight collaboration is important between the different level stakeholders working for conservation and development. Community-based ecotourism in Taita Hills, when carefully planned and managed, could be one opportunity for Kenya to diversify its tourism product supply and for forestadjacent communities to gain tangible benefits on a sustainable basis from forests.

Mapping Road Infrastructure in Developing Countries Applying Remote Sensing and GIS - The Case of the Taita Hills, Kenya

Road transport and infrastructure has a fundamental meaning for the developing world. Poor quality and inadequate coverage of roads, lack of maintenance operations and outdated road maps continue to hinder economic and social development in the developing countries. This thesis focuses on studying the present state of road infrastructure and its mapping in the Taita Hills, south-east Kenya. The study is included as a part of the TAITA-project by the Department of Geography, University of Helsinki. The road infrastructure of the study area is studied by remote sensing and GIS based methodology. As the principal dataset, true colour airborne digital camera data from 2004, was used to generate an aerial image mosaic of the study area. Auxiliary data includes SPOT satellite imagery from 2003, field spectrometry data of road surfaces and relevant literature. Road infrastructure characteristics are interpreted from three test sites using pixel-based supervised classification, object-oriented supervised classifications and visual interpretation. Road infrastructure of the test sites is interpreted visually from a SPOT image. Road centrelines are then extracted from the object-oriented classification results with an automatic vectorisation process. The road infrastructure of the entire image mosaic is mapped by applying the most appropriate assessed data and techniques. The spectral characteristics and reflectance of various road surfaces are considered with the acquired field spectra and relevant literature. The results are compared with the experimented road mapping methods. This study concludes that classification and extraction of roads remains a difficult task, and that the accuracy of the results is inadequate regardless of the high spatial resolution of the image mosaic used in this thesis. Visual interpretation, out of all the experimented methods in this thesis is the most straightforward, accurate and valid technique for road mapping. Certain road surfaces have similar spectral characteristics and reflectance values with other land cover and land use. This has a great influence for digital analysis techniques in particular. Road mapping is made even more complicated by rich vegetation and tree canopy, clouds, shadows, low contrast between roads and surroundings and the width of narrow roads in relation to the spatial resolution of the imagery used. The results of this thesis may be applied to road infrastructure mapping in developing countries on a more general context, although with certain limits. In particular, unclassified rural roads require updated road mapping schemas to intensify road transport possibilities and to assist in the development of the developing world.

Mapinduzi Daima – Revolution Forever : Using the 1964 Revolution in Nationalistic Political Discourses in Zanzibar

This Master's thesis examines two opposite nationalistic discourses on the revolution of Zanzibar. Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the party in power since the 1964 revolution defends its revolutionary and "African" heritage in the current multi-party system. New nationalists, including among others the main opposition party Civic United Front (CUF), question both the 1964 revolution and the post-revolution period and blame CCM for empty promises, corruption and ethnic discrimination. This study analyzes the role of a significant historical event in the creation of nationalistic ideology and national identity. The 1964 revolution forms the nucleus of various debates related to the history of Zanzibar: slavery, colonialism, racial discrimination and political violence. Representations of these Social constructivist principles form the basis of this study, and central concepts in the theoretical framework are nationalism, national identity, ethnicity and race. I use critical discourse analysis as my research method, lean on the work by Teun A. van Dijk and Norman Fairclough as the most significant researchers in this field. I examine particularly the ways in which linguistic methods, such as stereotypes and metaphors are used to form in- and out-groups ("us" vs. "others"). My material, both in Swahili and English, was collected mainly in Tanzania in the fall of 2007 and from online sources in the spring of 2009. It includes publications by the Zanzibari government between the years of 1964-2000 (12), official speeches for the Revolution Day or the Union Day (12), articles from Tanzanian newspapers from the 1990s until the year of 2009 (15), memoirs and political pamphlets (10), blog posts and opinion pieces from four different websites (8), and interviews or personal communication in Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam and Uppsala (8). Nationalistic rhetoric often creates enemy images by using binary good-bad oppositions. Both discourses in this study build identities on the basis of "otherness" and exclusion, with the intent of emphasizing the particularity of the own group and excluding "evilness" outside the own reference group. These opposite views on the 1964 revolution as the main axis of the history of Zanzibar build different portraits of the nation and Zanzibari-ness (Uzanzibari). CCM still relies on the pre-revolutionary enemy images of Arabs as selfish rulers and cruel slave traders. For CCM, Zanzibar is primarily an "African" nation and a part of Tanzania which is threatened by "Arabs", the outsiders. In contrast, the new nationalists stress the long history of Zanzibar as multi-racial, cosmopolitan and formerly independent country which has its own, separate culture and identity from mainland Tanzanians. Heshima, honour/respect, one of the basic values of Swahili culture, occupies a central role in both discourses: the main party emphasizes that the revolution returned "heshima" to the Zanzibari Africans after centuries of humiliation, whereas the new nationalists claim that ever since the revolution all "non-Africans" have been humiliated and lost their "heshima". According to the new nationalists, true Zanzibari values which include tolerance and harmony between different "races" were lost when the "foreign" revolutionaries arrived from the mainland. Consequently, they see the 1964 revolution as Tanganyikan colonialism which began with the help of Western countries, and maintain that this "colonialism" still continues in the violent multi-party elections.

Devolution of forest-related rights: Comparative analyses of six developing countries

The study focused on the different ways that forest-related rights can be devolved to the local level according to the current legal frameworks in Laos, Nepal, Vietnam, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania. The eleven case studies represented the main ways in which forest-related rights can be devolved to communities or households in these countries. The objectives of this study were to 1) analyse the contents and extent of forest-related rights that can be devolved to the local level, 2) develop an empirical typology that represents the main types of devolution, and 3) compare the cases against a theoretical ideal type to assess in what way and to what extent the cases are similar to or differ from the theoretical construct. Fuzzy set theory, Qualitative Comparative Analysis and ideal type analysis were used in analysing the case studies and in developing an empirical typology. The theoretical framework, which guided data collection and analyses, was based on institutional economics and theories on property rights, common pool resources and collective action. On the basis of the theoretical and empirical knowledge, the most important attributes of rights were defined as use rights, management rights, exclusion rights, transfer rights and the duration and security of the rights. The ideal type was defined as one where local actors have been devolved comprehensive use rights, extensive management rights, rights to exclude others from the resource and rights to transfer these rights. In addition, the rights are to be secure and held perpetually. The ideal type was used to structure the analysis and as a tool against which the cases were analysed. The contents, extent and duration of the devolved rights varied greatly. In general, the results show that devolution has mainly meant the transfer of use rights to the local level, and has not really changed the overall state control over forest resources. In most cases the right holders participate, or have a limited role in the decision making regarding the harvesting and management of the resource. There was a clear tendency to devolve the rights to enforce rules and to monitor resource use and condition more extensively than the powers to decide on the management and development of the resource. The empirical typology of the cases differentiated between five different types of devolution. The types can be characterised by the devolution of 1) restricted use and control rights, 2) extensive use rights but restricted control rights, 3) extensive rights, 4) insecure, short term use and restricted control rights, and 5) insecure extensive rights. Overall, the case studies conformity to the ideal type was very low: only two cases were similar to the ideal type, all other cases differed considerably from the ideal type. The restricted management rights were the most common reason for the low conformity to the ideal type (eight cases). In three cases, the short term of the rights, restricted transfer rights, restricted use rights or restricted exclusion rights were the reason or one of the reasons for the low conformity to the ideal type. In two cases the rights were not secure.

Livelihood, land use and environment interactions in the highlands of East Africa

This study aims at improving understanding of the interactions of livelihoods and the environment focusing on both socio-economic and biodiversity implications of land use change in the context of population pressure, global and local markets, climate change, cultural and regional historical factors in the highlands of East Africa. The study is based on three components (1) two extensive livelihood surveys, one on Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and the other in the Taita Hills of Kenya, (2) a land use change study of the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro focusing on land use trends between 1960s and 1980s and 1980s and 2000 and (3) a bird diversity study focusing on the potential impacts of the future land use change on birds in the main land use types on the slopes and the adjacent plains of Mt. Kilimanjaro. In addition, information on the highlands in Embu and the adjacent lowlands in Mbeere of Kenya are added to the discussion. Some general patterns of livelihood, land use and environment interactions can be found in the three sites. However, the linkages are very complex. Various external factors at different times in history have influenced most of the major turning points. Farmers continually make small adaptations to their farming practices, but the locally conceived alternatives are too few. Farmers lack specific information and knowledge on the most suitable crops, market opportunities and the quality requirements for growing the crops for markets. Population growth emerges as the most forceful driver of land use and environmental change. The higher altitudes have become extremely crowded with population densities in some areas higher than typical urban population densities. Natural vegetation has almost totally been replaced by farmland. Decreasing farm size due to population pressure is currently threatening the viability of whole farming systems. In addition, capital-poor intensification has lead to soil fertility depletion. Agricultural expansion to the agriculturally marginal lowlands has created a new and distinct group of farmers struggling constantly with climate variability causing frequent crop failures. Extensification to the fragile drylands is the major cause of fragmentation and loss of wildlife habitat. The linkages between livelihoods, land use and the environment generally point to degradation of the environment leading to reduced environmental services and ecosystem functions. There is no indication that the system is self-regulating in this respect. Positive interventions will be needed to maintain ecosystem integrity.

Remote sensing of leaf area index: enhanced retrieval from close-range and remotely sensed optical observations

A wide range of models used in agriculture, ecology, carbon cycling, climate and other related studies require information on the amount of leaf material present in a given environment to correctly represent radiation, heat, momentum, water, and various gas exchanges with the overlying atmosphere or the underlying soil. Leaf area index (LAI) thus often features as a critical land surface variable in parameterisations of global and regional climate models, e.g., radiation uptake, precipitation interception, energy conversion, gas exchange and momentum, as all areas are substantially determined by the vegetation surface. Optical wavelengths of remote sensing are the common electromagnetic regions used for LAI estimations and generally for vegetation studies. The main purpose of this dissertation was to enhance the determination of LAI using close-range remote sensing (hemispherical photography), airborne remote sensing (high resolution colour and colour infrared imagery), and satellite remote sensing (high resolution SPOT 5 HRG imagery) optical observations. The commonly used light extinction models are applied at all levels of optical observations. For the sake of comparative analysis, LAI was further determined using statistical relationships between spectral vegetation index (SVI) and ground based LAI. The study areas of this dissertation focus on two regions, one located in Taita Hills, South-East Kenya characterised by tropical cloud forest and exotic plantations, and the other in Gatineau Park, Southern Quebec, Canada dominated by temperate hardwood forest. The sampling procedure of sky map of gap fraction and size from hemispherical photographs was proven to be one of the most crucial steps in the accurate determination of LAI. LAI and clumping index estimates were significantly affected by the variation of the size of sky segments for given zenith angle ranges. On sloping ground, gap fraction and size distributions present strong upslope/downslope asymmetry of foliage elements, and thus the correction and the sensitivity analysis for both LAI and clumping index computations were demonstrated. Several SVIs can be used for LAI mapping using empirical regression analysis provided that the sensitivities of SVIs at varying ranges of LAI are large enough. Large scale LAI inversion algorithms were demonstrated and were proven to be a considerably efficient alternative approach for LAI mapping. LAI can be estimated nonparametrically from the information contained solely in the remotely sensed dataset given that the upper-end (saturated SVI) value is accurately determined. However, further study is still required to devise a methodology as well as instrumentation to retrieve on-ground green leaf area index . Subsequently, the large scale LAI inversion algorithms presented in this work can be precisely validated. Finally, based on literature review and this dissertation, potential future research prospects and directions were recommended.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Enhanced processing of SPOT multispectral satellite imagery for environmental monitoring and modelling

The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.

"Politiikka on kirkossa" : Keskustapuolueen kirkkopoliittisten tavoitteiden muotoutuminen vuosina 1966–1978

This study in church history deals with the formation of aims in the church politics of the Centre Party during a period of extensive politicisation in Finnish society – 1966 to 1978. The focus is on the processes of creating political input within the party organisation. The most important source material consists of the records of the highest party organs as well as material from the party office and the party’s committee for church politics. In the late 1960s, at a time of leftist radicalism in Finnish society, issues concerning the Church were seldom dealt with in the highest party organs, even though informal discussion took place within the party. This phase was followed by a conservative reaction in society during the 1970s. The rightist trend as well as the ongoing politicisation process substantially strengthened the role of church politics in the party. An aim of great importance was to prevent those supporters who belonged to the Lutheran revival movements from moving into the Finnish Christian League. Therefore it became increasingly important to prove that the Centre Party was defending the Church as well as so-called Christian values in state politics, e.g., by advocating religious instruction in schools. The Centre Party also defended the independence and legal status of the Church, at the same time positioning itself against Finland’s Social Democratic Party. Many party members were of the opinion that the church politics should have been about defending the Church and Christian values in state politics instead of defending the proportional share of the party’s seats in the ecclesiastical decision-making system. Nevertheless, the struggle for hegemony between the Centre Party and the Social Democrats was reflected in the Evangelical Lutheran Church particularly since 1973. Thus the aims of church politics were increasingly directed towards ecclesiastical elections and appointments in the 1970s. To justify its activities in church elections, the party stressed that it was not politicising the Church. To the contrary, it was asserted that the church leaders themselves had politicised the Church by favouring the Social Democrats. These alleged efforts to affiliate the Church with one political party were strictly condemned in the Centre Party. But when it came to the political parties’ activity in church elections, opinions diverged. Generally, the issues of church politics resembled those of the party’s trade union politics in the 1970s.

Större frihet - bättre lokalt anpassad service? : Förvaltningsreformer och kommunernas service för utvecklingsstörda 1994-2000

In the beginning of the 1990s the legislation regarding the municipalities and the system of central government transfers were reformed in Finland. This resulted in a move from detailed governmental control to increased municipal autonomy. The purpose of this decentralization was to enable the municipalities to better adapt their administration and service supply to local needs. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the increased municipal autonomy on the organization of services for people with intellectual disabilities. Did the increased autonomy cause the municipalities to alter their service supply and production and did the services become more adapted to local needs? The data consists of statistical information on service use and production, and also of background data such as demographics, economics and political elections on 452 municipalities in Finland from the years 1994 and 2000. The methods used are cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and factor analysis. The municipalities could be grouped in two categories: those which offered mainly one kind of residential services and others which had more varied mixes of services. The use of institutional care had decreased and municipalities which used institutional care as their primary form of service were mostly very small municipalities in 2000. The situation had changed from 1994, when institutional care was the primary service for municipalities of all sizes. Also the service production had become more differentiated and the municipalities had started using more varied ways of production. More municipalities had started producing their own services and private production had increased as well. Furthermore, the increase in local autonomy had opened up possibilities for local politics to influence both the service selection and methods of production. The most significant motive for changes in the service structure was high unemployment and an increasing share of elderly people in the population, particularly in sparsely populated areas. Municipalities with a low level of resources had made more changes in their service organization while those with more resources had been able to carry on as before. Key words: service structure, service for people with intellectual disabilities, municipalities, contingency theory, New Public Management