"Do Not Celebrate Your Feast without Your Neighbours" : A Study of References to Feasts and Festivals in Non-Literary Documents from Ramesside Period Deir el-Medina

This dissertation is a study of the forms and functions of feasts and feasting in the ancient Egyptian village of Deir el-Medina in Thebes (modern Luxor). This particular village, during the New Kingdom (c. 1550 1069 BC), was inhabited by the men (and their families) who constructed the Royal Tombs in the Valley of the Kings and the Valley of the Queens. The royal artisans were probably more literate than the average Egyptians and the numerous Ramesside Period (c. 1295 1069 BC) non-literary texts found in the excavations of the village and its surroundings form the source material for this study. In this study, the methods used are mainly Egyptological and the references to feasts and feasting are considered in view of what is known of New Kingdom Egypt, Thebes, and Deir el-Medina. Nevertheless, it is the use of the methodological concept local vernacular religion that has resulted in the division of the research findings into two sections, i.e., references to feasts celebrated both in and outside the community and other references to feasts and feasting in the village. When considering the function of the feasts celebrated at Deir el-Medina, a functional approach to feasts introduced by anthropologists and archaeologists is utilized. The Deir el-Medina feasts which were associated with the official religion form a festival calendar of feasts celebrated annually on the same civil calendar day. The reconstructed festival calendar of Deir el-Medina reflects the feasts celebrated around Thebes or, at least, in Western Thebes. The function of the nationally and regionally observed feasts (which, at least at Deir el-Medina, resulted in a work-free day) may have been to keep people content so that they would continue to work which was to the advantage of the king and the elite surrounding him. Local feasts appear to have been observed more irregularly at Deir el-Medina or perhaps according to the lunar calendar. Feasts celebrated by the community as a whole served to maintain the unity of the group. In addition to feasts celebrated by the entire community, the inhabitants of Deir el-Medina could mark their own personal feasts and organize small gatherings during public feasts. Through such feasts, an individual man might form alliances and advance his chances of a favourable marriage or of acquiring a position on the work crew.

Rayleigh-testi periodisuudesta: muinaisegyptiläinen ennustuskalenteri sarjana aikapisteitä

Työssä perehdytään "päivienvalikoimistekstien" analysointiin Rayleigh'n testillä. Näissä muinaisegyptiläisissä teksteissä päiville on annettu nk. prognoosi, joka on jokaisen päivän kolmelle osalle joko "hyvä" tai "huono". Analyysin tavoitteena on selvittää, olivatko hyvät ja huonot päivät jakautuneet satunnaisesti vai periodisesti vuoden aikana. Prognooseista löytyvä 29.5 päivän periodi, jolle saadaan huomattavan korkea merkitsevyys, viittaa Kuun synodisen jakson läsnäoloon kalenterissa. Löytyvistä periodeista 7.5 ja 30 ilmenee myös muinaisegyptiläisen siviilikalenterin vaikutus ennustuksiin. Aikasarjoista löydetään myös merkitseviä periodeja, joilla on mahdollisesti numerologinen merkitys. Periodi 2.85 viittaa mahdollisesti muinaisegyptiläiseen havaintoon Algol-tähdestä, joka on yksi tähtitieteen tunnetuimmista pimennysmuuttujista. Kyseessä voi siis olla historian vanhin tunnettu muuttuvan tähden periodin määritys.

Dancing and Professional Dancers in Roman Egypt

The main aim of the study is to create a many-sided view of dancing in Roman Egypt (1st - early 4th centuries AD) and especially of the dancers who earned their living by dancing as hired performers. Even though dancers and other performers played a central part in many kinds of festivities throughout the ancient world, research on ancient professional dancers is rare and tends to rest on the ancient literature, which reflects the opinions of the elite. Documentary written sources (i.e., papyri, ostraka) the core of the present study are mentioned rather superficially, easily resulting in a stereotypical view of the dancers. This study will balance the picture of professional dancers in antiquity and of ancient dancing in a more general sense. The second aim characterizes this study as basic research: to provide a corpus of written sources from Greco-Roman Egypt on dancing and to discuss pictorial sources contemporary with the texts. The study also takes into account the theoretical discussion that centres on dancing as a nonverbal communicative mode. Dancers are seen as significant conveyors of social and cultural matters. This study shows that dancers were hired to perform especially in religious contexts, where the local associations on the village level also played an important part as the employers of the performers. These performers had a better standard of living in economic terms than the average hired worker, and dancers were better paid than other performers. In the Egyptian villages and towns, where the dancers performed and lived, the dancers do not seem to have been marginal because they were professionals or because of some ethnic or social background. However, their possible marginality may have occurred for reasons related to the practicalities of their profession (e.g., the itinerant life style). The oriental background of performers was a literary topos reflecting partly the situation in the centres of the empire, especially Rome, where many performers were of other than Roman origin. The connection of dancing, prostitution and slavery reflects the essential link between dance, body and gender: dancers are equated with such professions or socio-legal statuses where the body is the focus of attention, a commodity and a source of sensual pleasure; this dimension is clearly observable in ancient literature. According to the Egyptian documentary sources, there is no watertight evidence that professional dancers would have been engaged in prostitution and very little, if any, evidence that the disapproval of the professional dancers expressed by the ancient authors was shared by the Egyptians. From the 4th century onwards the dancers almost disappear from the documentary sources, reflecting the political and religious changes in the Mediterranean east.

Literaturnaja skazka A.M. Remizova (1900-1920-e gody)

Literary tale of A.M. Remizov (1900’s – 1920’s) The thesis is devoted to a detailed historical-literary description of a tale as a genre tradition in the creative work of Alexei Mikhailovich Remizov (1877-1957), one of the major Russian prose writers of the 20’s century. This very approach allows to specify the place and functional meaning of this genre in literary practice of the writer and to appeal to one of the key problems of the 20-21 century literature history – a specific of modernistic literature composition principle and a role of montage techniques in its formation. Remizov was working on tales during his whole life, though the most productive years of folklore studies fell to 1900’s – 1910’s. During this period he intensively studied folklore materials, narrated several hundreds of folk tales and in 1900’s – 1920’s published eight tale collections which played a significant role in the formation of stylistic and compositional principles of his prose of the 1910’s – 1920’s, especially montage techniques, which in its turn influenced the development of the narrative forms in the Russian post-revolutionary literature. At the same time a tale has specified not only poetics but also problematics of Remizov’s creative work, as when choosing folklore sources the writer always alluded to modern themes and relevant intellectual trends. The current research work, based on various archive materials and a wide spectrum of modern historical-literary data, complies four chapters with a consistent description of creation history, publication and critics’ reviews of Remizov’s tale collections and single tales contributing to his creative evolution characteristic. Furthermore, the work refers to composition and subject of the particular collections. On the whole it enables to follow up genre dynamics. The first chapter of the work is devoted to Posolon’ (Sunwise), the earliest tale collection of Remizov. The main feature of the collection is that its composition is oriented on the agrarian calendar and the subject – on the system of mythological views reflected in the Russian folklore. This very collection to a large extent corresponds to the writer’s views on the myth represented in Pis’mo v redaktsiyu (Letter to the Editor). The history of this manifesto appearing is analyzed in the second chapter. The incident which caused its forthcoming contributed to ‘legitimization’ of Remizov’s narrations as a relevant genre of modern literature and to upgrading the writer in professional hierarchy. The third chapter analyzes Remizov’s collections of 1900’s – early 1920’s, a result of Remizov’s scrupulous work with a specific tale material. He is acting here as a tale repertory researcher and in some cases as a collector as well. The means of such collections’ topical organization is not the myth but the hero of the tale. According to this principle single pieces are grouped into cycles, which then form complicated montage constructs. Texts themselves can be viewed as a sort of hyper-quotations, as they in fact entirely coincide with their original sources. Besides, collections usually have their own ideal patterns. In the fourth chapter a connection of Remizov’s creative work with folk fun culture and a tradition of the folklore noel story is being demonstrated on Zavetnyie skazy (Secret Tales) material. A consistent collections’ history creation analysis convinces us that the tale was a sort of laboratory in which main writer’s prose methods were being worked out.

Strike Hard, Strike Sure - Operation Musketeer : British Military Planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

This study analyses British military planning and actions during the Suez Crisis in 1956. It seeks to find military reasons for the change of concepts during the planning and compares these reasons with the tactical doctrines of the time. The thesis takes extensive advantage of military documents preserved in the National Archives, London. In order to expand the understanding of the exchange of views during the planning process, the private papers of high ranking military officials have also been consulted. French military documents preserved in the Service Historique de la Defence, Paris, have provided an important point of comparison. The Suez Crisis caught the British armed forces in the middle of a transition phase. The main objective of the armed forces was to establish a credible deterrence against the Soviet Union. However, due to overseas commitments the Middle East playing a paramount role because of its economic importance the armed forces were compelled to also prepare for Limited War and the Cold War. The armed forces were not fully prepared to meet this demand. The Middle Eastern garrison was being re-organised after the withdrawal from the Canal Base and the concept for a strategic reserve was unimplemented. The tactical doctrines of the time were based on experiences from the Second World War. As a result, the British view of amphibious operations and the subsequent campaigns emphasised careful planning, mastery of the sea and the air, sufficient superiority in numbers and firepower, centralised command and extensive administrative preparations. The British military had realized that Nasser could nationalise the Suez Canal and prepared an outline plan to meet this contingency. Although the plan was nothing more than a concept, it was accepted as a basis for further planning when the Canal was nationalised at the end of July. This plan was short-lived. The nominated Task Force Commanders shifted the landing site from Port Said to Alexandria because it enabled faster expansion of the bridgehead. In addition, further operations towards Cairo the hub of Nasser s power would be easier to conduct. The operational concept can be described as being traditional and was in accordance with the amphibious warfare doctrine. This plan was completely changed at the beginning of September. Apparently, General Charles Keightley, the Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee developed the idea of prolonged aerial operations. The essence of the concept was to break the Egyptian will to resist by attacking the oil facilities, the transportation system and the armed forces. This victory through air concept would be supported by carefully planned psychological operations. This concept was in accordance with the Royal Air Force doctrine, which promoted a bomber offensive against selected target categories. General Keightley s plan was accepted despite suspicions at every planning level. The Joint Planning Staff and the Task Force Commanders opposed the concept from the beginning to the end because of its unpredictability. There was no information that suggested the bombing would persuade the Egyptians to submit. This problem was worsened by the fact that British intelligence was unable to provide reliable strategic information. The Task Force Commanders, who were responsible for the tactical plans, were not able to change Keightley s mind, but the concept was expanded to include a traditional amphibious assault on Port Said due to their resistance. The bombing campaign was never tested as the Royal Air Force was denied authorisation to destroy the transportation and oil targets. The Chiefs of Staff and General Keightley were too slow to realise that the execution of the plan depended on the determination of the Prime Minister. However, poor health, a lack of American and domestic support and the indecisiveness of the military had ruined Eden s resolve. In the end, a very traditional amphibious assault, which was bound to succeed at the tactical level but fail at the strategic level, was launched against Port Said.

Approaching Sacred Pregnancy : The Cult of the Visitation and Narrative Altarpieces in Late Fifteenth-Century Florence

The study focuses on the Visitation as a narrative subject of altarpieces in late fifteenth-century Florence. Although the Visitation was a well-known story in both verbal and visual representations since the early medieval period, it became a popular subject of altarpieces only towards the end of the fifteenth century. In this study, the first part provides an overview of the complex religious and historical background to an emerging cult of the Visitation. Devotional practices focusing on the Visitation belong in a context of late medieval Marian devotion and in 1389 a new feast of the Visitation was introduced into the liturgical calendar of the Catholic Church. Because of the ongoing schism within the Catholic Church, the feast was not unanimously accepted across Western Europe until the later part of the fifteenth century. Contrary to a widely disseminated view, the feast of the Visitation cannot be associated with Franciscan spirituality, but was rather a clearly defined Dominican project that primarily emphasised the importance of peace and unity within the Christian Church. Simultaneously with the gradual acceptance of the new feast, visual representations of the Visitation began to appear at the centre of altarpieces. The Visitation exemplifies an increasing preference for narrative subjects within the genre of the altarpiece. The second part of the study presents an analysis of the concept of the narrative altarpiece and highlights the complexities involved in combining a narrative content with the traditional devotional function of the altarpiece. In detailed case studies some prominent art works produced in Florence between 1490 and 1503 are discussed within a framework of contextual analysis, narrative theory and iconography. Altarpieces by Domenico Ghirlandaio, Piero di Cosimo and Mariotto Albertinelli represent visual manifestations of a cult of the Visitation with roots in late medieval devotional practices. At the same time, the altarpieces highlight the multiple functions of altarpieces in a culture where art works responded to a variety of social and religious needs. Building on earlier studies, each case study presents new insights and evidence not considered in previous art historical research.

4QMMT - The Problem of the Epilogue

The main focus of this study is the epilogue of 4QMMT (4QMiqsat Ma aseh ha-Torah), a text of obscure genre containing a halakhic section found in cave 4 at Qumran. In the official edition published in the series Discoveries of the Judaean Desert (DJD X), the extant document was divided by its editors, Elisha Qimron and John Strugnell, into three literary divisions: Section A) the calendar section representing a 364-day solar calendar, Section B) the halakhot, and Section C) an epilogue. The work begins with text critical inspection of the manuscripts containing text from the epilogue (mss 4Q397, 4Q398, and 4Q399). However, since the relationship of the epilogue to the other sections of the whole document 4QMMT is under investigation, the calendrical fragments (4Q327 and 4Q394 3-7, lines 1-3) and the halakhic section also receive some attention, albeit more limited and purpose oriented. In Ch. 2, after a transcription of the fragments of the epilogue, a synopsis is presented in order to evaluate the composite text of the DJD X edition in light of the evidence provided by the individual manuscripts. As a result, several critical comments are offered, and finally, an alternative arrangement of the fragments of the epilogue with an English translation. In the following chapter (Ch. 3), the diversity of the two main literary divisions, the halakhic section and the epilogue, is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the author(s) of 4QMMT adopted and adjusted the covenantal pattern known from biblical law collections, more specifically Deuteronomy. The question of the genre of 4QMMT is investigated in Ch. 4. The final chapter (Ch. 5) contains an analysis of the use of Scripture in the epilogue. In a close reading, both the explicit citations and the more subtle allusions are investigated in an attempt to trace the theology of the epilogue. The main emphases of the epilogue are covenantal faithfulness, repentance and return. The contents of the document reflect a grave concern for the purity of the cult in Jerusalem, and in the epilogue Deuteronomic language and expressions are used to convince the readers of the necessity of a reformation. The large number of late copies found in cave 4 at Qumran witness the significance of 4QMMT and the continuous importance of the Jerusalem Temple for the Qumran community.

Long-term clinical outcome after liver transplantation

With transplant rejection rendered a minor concern and survival rates after liver transplantation (LT) steadily improving, long-term complications are attracting more attention. Current immunosuppressive therapies, together with other factors, are accompanied by considerable long-term toxicity, which clinically manifests as renal dysfunction, high risk for cardiovascular disease, and cancer. This thesis investigates the incidence, causes, and risk factors for such renal dysfunction, cardiovascular risk, and cancer after LT. Long-term effects of LT are further addressed by surveying the quality of life and employment status of LT recipients. The consecutive patients included had undergone LT at Helsinki University Hospital from 1982 onwards. Data regarding renal function – creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) – were recorded before and repeatedly after LT in 396 patients. The presence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, impaired fasting glucose, and overweight/obesity before and 5 years after LT was determined among 77 patients transplanted for acute liver failure. The entire cohort of LT patients (540 patients), including both children and adults, was linked with the Finnish Cancer Registry, and numbers of cancers observed were compared to site-specific expected numbers based on national cancer incidence rates stratified by age, gender, and calendar time. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL), measured by the 15D instrument, and employment status were surveyed among all adult patients alive in 2007 (401 patients). The response rate was 89%. Posttransplant cardiovascular risk factor prevalence and HRQoL were compared with that in the age- and gender-matched Finnish general population. The cumulative risk for chronic kidney disease increased from 10% at 5 years to 16% at 10 years following LT. GFR up to 10 years after LT could be predicted by the GFR at 1 year. In patients transplanted for chronic liver disease, a moderate correlation of pretransplant GFR with later GFR was also evident, whereas in acute liver failure patients after LT, even severe pretransplant renal dysfunction often recovered. By 5 years after LT, 71% of acute liver failure patients were receiving antihypertensive medications, 61% were exhibiting dyslipidemia, 10% were diabetic, 32% were overweight, and 13% obese. Compared with the general population, only hypertension displayed a significantly elevated prevalence among patients – 2.7-fold – whereas patients exhibited 30% less dyslipidemia and 71% less impaired fasting glucose. The cumulative incidence of cancer was 5% at 5 years and 13% at 10. Compared with the general population, patients were subject to a 2.6-fold cancer risk, with non-melanoma skin cancer (standardized incidence ratio, SIR, 38.5) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR 13.9) being the predominant malignancies. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma was associated with male gender, young age, and the immediate posttransplant period, whereas old age and antibody induction therapy raised skin-cancer risk. HRQoL deviated clinically unimportantly from the values in the general population, but significant deficits among patients were evident in some physical domains. HRQoL did not seem to decrease with longer follow-up. Although 87% of patients reported improved working capacity, data on return to working life showed marked age-dependency: Among patients aged less than 40 at LT, 70 to 80% returned to work, among those aged 40 to 50, 55%, and among those above 50, 15% to 28%. The most common cause for unemployment was early retirement before LT. Those patients employed exhibited better HRQoL than those unemployed. In conclusion, although renal impairment, hypertension, and cancer are evidently common after LT and increase with time, patients’ quality of life remains comparable with that of the general population.

Cultural Trauma and Life Stories

The purpose of this work is to use the concepts of human time and cultural trauma in a biographical study of the turning points in the recent history of Estonia. This research is primarily based on 148 in-depth biographical interviews conducted in Estonia and Sweden in 1995-2005, supplemented by excerpts from 5 collections and 10 individually published autobiographies. The main body of the thesis consists of six published and of two forthcoming separate refereed articles, summarised in the theoretical introduction, and Appendix of the full texts of three particular life stories. The topic of the first article is the generational composition and the collective action frames of anti-Soviet social mobilisation in Estonia in 1940-1990. The second article details the differentiation of the rites of passage and the calendar traditions as a strategy to adapt to the rapidly changed political realities, comparatively in Soviet Estonia and among the boat-refugees in Sweden. The third article investigates the life stories of the double-minded strategic generation of the Estonian-inclined Communists, who attempted to work within the Soviet system while professing to uphold the ideals of pre-war Estonia. The fourth article is concentrated on the problems of double mental standards as a coping strategy in a contradictory social reality. The fifth article implements the theory of cultural trauma for the social practice of singing nationalism in Estonia. The sixth article bridges the ideas of Russian theoreticians concerning cultural dialogue and the Western paradigm of cultural trauma, with examples from Estonian Russian life stories. The seventh article takes a biographical look at the logic of the unraveling of cultural trauma through four Soviet decades. The eighth article explores the re-shaping of citizen activities as a strategy of coping with the loss of the independent nation state, comparatively in Soviet Estonia and among Swedish Estonians. Cultural trauma is interpreted as the re-ordering of the society s value-normative constellation due to sharp, violent, usually political events. The first one under consideration was caused by the occupations of the Republic of Estonia by the Soviet army in 1940-45. After half a century of suppression the memories of these events resurfaced as different stories describing the long-term, often inter-generational strategies of coping with the value collapse. The second cultural trauma is revealed together with the collapse of the Soviet power and ideology in Estonia in 1991. According to empirical data, the following three trauma discourses have been reconstructed: - the forced adaptation to Soviet order of the homeland Estonians; - the difficulty of preserving Estonian identity in exile (Sweden); - the identity crisis of the Russian population of Estonia. Comparative analyses of these discourses have shown that opposing experiences and worldviews cause conflicting interpretations of the past. Different social and ethnic groups consider coping with cultural trauma as a matter of self-defence and create appropriate usable pasts to identify with. Keywords: human time, cultural trauma, frame analysis, discourse, life stories

Bilingual Notaries in Hellenistic Egypt : A Study of Language Use

The impact of Greek-Egyptian bilingualism on language use and linguistic competence is the key issue in this dissertation. The language use in a corpus of 148 Greek notarial contracts is analyzed on phonological, morphological and syntactic levels. The texts were written by bilingual notaries (agoranomoi) in Upper Egypt in the later Hellenistic period. They present, for the most part, very good administrative Greek. On the other hand, their language contains variation and idiosyncrasies that were earlier condemned as ungrammatical and bad Greek, and were not subjected to closer analysis. In order to reach plausible explanations for those phenomena, a thorough research into the sociohistorical and linguistic context was needed before the linguistic analysis. The general linguistic landscape, the population pattern and the status and frequency of Greek literacy in Ptolemaic Egypt in general, and in Upper Egypt in particular, are presented. Through a detailed examination of the notaries themselves (their names, families and handwriting), it became evident that there were one to three persons at the notarial office writing under the signature of one notary. Often the documents under one notary's name were written in the same hand. We get, therefore, exceptionally close to studying idiolects in written material from antiquity. The qualitative linguistic analysis revealed that the notaries made relatively few orthographic mistakes that reflect the ongoing phonological changes and they mastered the morphological forms. The problems arose at the syntactic level, for example, with the pattern of agreement between the noun groups or a noun with its modifiers. The significant structural differences between Greek and Egyptian can be behind the innovative strategies used by some of the notaries. Moreover, certain syntactic structures were clearly transferred from the notaries first language, Egyptian. This is obvious in the relative clause structure. Transfer can be found in other structures, as well, although, we must not forget the influence of parallel Greek structures. Sometimes these can act simultaneously. The interesting linguistic strategies and transfer features come mostly from the hand of one notary, Hermias. Some other notaries show similar patterns, for example, Hermias' cousin, Ammonios. Hermias' texts reveal that he probably spoke Greek more than his predecessors. It is possible to conclude, then, that the notaries of the later generations were more fluently bilingual; their two languages were partly integrated in their minds as an interlanguage combining elements from both languages. The earlier notaries had the two languages functionally separated and they followed the standardized contract formulae more rigidly.

Hedging Options with Different Time Units in the Pricing Models

This study examined the effects of the Greeks of the options and the trading results of delta hedging strategies, with three different time units or option-pricing models. These time units were calendar time, trading time and continuous time using discrete approximation (CTDA) time. The CTDA time model is a pricing model, that among others accounts for intraday and weekend, patterns in volatility. For the CTDA time model some additional theta measures, which were believed to be usable in trading, were developed. The study appears to verify that there were differences in the Greeks with different time units. It also revealed that these differences influence the delta hedging of options or portfolios. Although it is difficult to say anything about which is the most usable of the different time models, as this much depends on the traders view of the passing of time, different market conditions and different portfolios, the CTDA time model can be viewed as an attractive alternative.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Evaluating Option Pricing Models

This study evaluates three different time units in option pricing: trading time, calendar time and continuous time using discrete approximations (CTDA). The CTDA-time model partitions the trading day into 30-minute intervals, where each interval is given a weight corresponding to the historical volatility in the respective interval. Furthermore, the non-trading volatility, both overnight and weekend volatility, is included in the first interval of the trading day in the CTDA model. The three models are tested on market prices. The results indicate that the trading-time model gives the best fit to market prices in line with the results of previous studies, but contrary to expectations under non-arbitrage option pricing. Under non-arbitrage pricing, the option premium should reflect the cost of hedging the expected volatility during the option’s remaining life. The study concludes that the historical patterns in volatility are not fully accounted for by the market, rather the market prices options closer to trading time.

Intraday and Weekend Volatility Patterns- Implications for Option Pricing

This study examines the intraday and weekend volatility on the German DAX. The intraday volatility is partitioned into smaller intervals and compared to a whole day’s volatility. The estimated intraday variance is U-shaped and the weekend variance is estimated to 19 % of a normal trading day. The patterns in the intraday and weekend volatility are used to develop an extension to the Black and Scholes formula to form a new time basis. Calendar or trading days are commonly used for measuring time in option pricing. The Continuous Time using Discrete Approximations model (CTDA) developed in this study uses a measure of time with smaller intervals, approaching continuous time. The model presented accounts for the lapse of time during trading only. Arbitrage pricing suggests that the option price equals the expected cost of hedging volatility during the option’s remaining life. In this model, time is allowed to lapse as volatility occurs on an intraday basis. The measure of time is modified in CTDA to correct for the non-constant volatility and to account for the patterns in volatility.

Climatic adaptation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Anthesis was studied at the canopy level in 10 Norway spruce stands from 9 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1974. Distributions of pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing studies was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. Development up to this point was given in calendar days, in degree days (>5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on March 19 (included). Male flowering in Norway spruce stands was found to have more annual variation in quantity than in Scots pine stands studied earlier. Anthesis in spruce in northern Finland occurred at a later date than in the south. The heat sums needed for anthesis varied latitudinally less in spruce than in pine. The variation of pollen catches in spruce increased towards north-west as in the case of Scots pine. In the unprocessed data, calendar days were found to be the most accurate forecast of anthesis in Norway spruce both for a single year and for the majority of cases of stand averages over several years. Locally, the period unit could be a more accurate parameter for the stand average. However, on a calendar day basis, when annual deviations between expected and measured heat sums were converted to days, period units were narrowly superior to days. The geographical correlations respect to timing of flowering, calculated against distances measured along simulated post-glacial migration routes, were stronger than purely latitudinal correlations. Effects of the reinvasion of Norway spruce into Finland are thus still visible in spruce populations just as they were in Scots pine populations. The proportion of the average annual heat sum needed for spruce anthesis grew rapidly north of a latitude of ca. 63° and the heat sum needed for anthesis decreased only slighty towards the timberline. In light of flowering phenology, it seems probable that the northwesterly third of Finnish Norway spruce populations are incompletely adapted to the prevailing cold climate. A moderate warming of the climate would therefore be beneficial for Norway spruce. This accords roughly with the adaptive situation in Scots pine.