Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

Shooting from the Wild Zone : A Study of the Chicana Art Photographers Laura Aguilar, Celia Álvarez Muñoz, Delilah Montoya, and Kathy Vargas

The dissertation analyzes and elaborates upon the changing map of U.S. ethno-racial formation from the vantage point of North American Studies, multi-disciplinary cultural studies, and the criticism of visual culture. The focus is on four contemporary Mexican American (Chicana) women photographers, whose art production is discussed, on the one hand, in the context of the Euro-American history of photographic genres and, on the other hand, in the context of so-called decolonizing cultural and academic discourses produced by Mexican Americans themselves. The manuscript consists of two parts. Part I outlines the theoretical and methodological domain of the study, positioning it in the interstices of American studies, European postmodern criticism, postcolonial feminist theory, and the theories of visual culture, particularly of art photography. In addition, the main issues and paradigms of Chicano Studies (Mexican American ethnic studies) are introduced. Part II consists of seven essays, each of which discusses rather independently a particular photographic work or a series of photographs, formulating and defending arguments about their meaning, position in the history of photographic genres, and their cultural and socio-political significance. The study closes with a discussion about ethno-racial identity formation and the role of Chicana photography therein - in embodying and reproducing new subjectivities, alternative categories of knowledge, and open ended historical narratives. It is argued that, symbolically, the "Wild Zone" of gendered and race-specific knowledge becomes associated with the body of the mother, a recurrent image in Chicana art works under discussion. Embedded in this image, the construction of an alternative notion of a family thus articulates the parameters of a matrifocal ethno-racial community unified by the proliferation of differences rather than by conformities typical of nationalistic ideologies. While focusing on art photography, the study as a whole simultaneously constructs, from a European vantage point, a "thick" description of Mexican American history, identities, communities, cultural practices, and self-representations about which very little is known in Finland.

Identification of the Meckel syndrome gene (MKS1) exposes a novel ciliopathy

Meckel syndrome (MKS, MIM 249000) is an autosomal recessive developmental disorder causing death in utero or shortly after birth. The hallmarks of the disease are cystic kidney dysplasia and fibrotic changes of the liver, occipital encephalocele with or without hydrocephalus and polydactyly. Other anomalies frequently seen in the patients are incomplete development of the male genitalia, club feet and cleft lip or palate. The clinical picture has been well characterized in the literature while the molecular pathology underlying the disease has remained unclear until now. In this study we identified the first MKS gene by utilizing the disease haplotypes in Finnish MKS families linked to the MKS1 locus on chromosome 17q23 (MKS1) locus. Subsequently, the genetic heterogeneity of MKS was established in the Finnish families. Mutations in at least four different genes can cause MKS. These genes have been mapped to the chromosomes 17q23 (MKS1), 11q13 (MKS2), 8q22 (MKS3) and 9q33 (MKS4). Two of these genes have been identified so far: The MKS1 gene (this work) and the MKS3 gene. The identified MKS1 gene was initially a novel human gene which is conserved among species. We found three different MKS mutations, one of them being the Finnish founder mutation. The information available from MKS1 orthologs in other species convinced us that the MKS1 gene is required for normal ciliogenesis. Defects of the cilial system in other human diseases and model organisms actually cause phenotypic features similar to those seen in MKS patients. The MKS3 (TMEM67) gene encodes a transmembrane protein and the gene maps to the syntenic Wpk locus in the rat, which is a model with polycystic kidney disease, agenesis of the corpus callosum and hydrocephalus. The available information from these two genes suggest that MKS1 would encode a structural component of the centriole required for normal ciliary functions, and MKS3 would be a transmembrane component most likely required for normal ciliary sensory signaling. The MKS4 locus was localized to chromosme 9q32-33 in this study by using an inbred Finnish family with two affected and two healthy children. This fourth locus contains TRIM32 gene, which is associated to another well characterized human ciliopathy, Bardet Biedl syndrome (BBS). Future studies should identify the MKS4 gene on chromosome 9q and confirm if there are more than two genes causing MKS Finnish families. The research on critical signaling pathways in organogenesis have shown that both Wnt and Hedgehog pathways are dependent on functional cilia. The MKS gene products will serve as excellent model molecules for more detailed studies of the functional role of cilia in organogenesis in more detail.

Foreign Capital and Finland : Central government's first period of reliance on international financial markets, 1862-1938

The main objective of the study is to evaluate the Finnish central government s foreign borrowing between the years 1862 and 1938. Most of this period was characterised by deep capital market integration that bears resemblance to the liberal world financial order at the turn of the millennium. The main aim is to analyse the credit risk associated with the state and its determination by evaluating the world financial market centres perception of Finland. By doing this, the study is also expected to provide an additional dimension to Finland s political and economic history by incorporating into the research the assessments of international capital markets regarding Finland during a period that witnessed profound political and economic changes in Finnish society. The evaluation of the credit risk mainly relies on exchange-rate risk free time series of the state s foreign bonds. They have been collected from quotations in the stock exchanges in Helsinki, Hamburg, Paris and London. In addition, it investigates Finland s exposure to short-term debt and Moody s credit ratings assigned to Finland. The study emphasises the importance of the political risk. It suggests that the hey-day of the state s reliance on foreign capital markets took place during last few decades of the 19th century when Finland enjoyed a wide autonomy in the Russian Empire and prudently managed its economy, highlighted in Finland s adherence to the international gold standard. Political confrontations in Finland and, in particular, in Russia and the turbulence of the world financial system prevented the return of this beneficial position again. Through its issuance of foreign bonds the state was able to import substantial amounts of foreign capital, which was sorely needed to foster economic development in Finland. Moreover, the study argues that the state s presence in the western capital markets not only had economic benefits, but it also increased the international awareness of Finland s distinct and separate status in the Russian Empire and later underlined its position as an independent republic.

The Politics of Pulp Investment and the Brazilian Landless Movement (MST)

The Politics of Pulp Investment and the Brazilian Landless Movement (MST) The paper industry has been moving more heavily to the global South at the beginning of the 21st century. In a number of cases the rural populations of the global South have engaged in increasingly important resistance in their scuffle with the large-scale tree plantation-relying pulp investment model. The resistance had generally not yet managed to slow down Southern industrial tree plantation expansion until 2004. After all, even the MST, perhaps the strongest of the Southern movements, has limited power in comparison to the corporations pushing for plantation expansion. This thesis shows how, even against these odds, depending on the mechanisms of contention and case-specific conflict dynamics, in some cases the movements have managed to slow and even reverse plantation expansion. The thesis is based on extensive field research in the Brazilian countryside. It outlines a new theory of contentious agency promotion, emphasizing its importance in the shaping of corporate resource exploitation. The thesis includes a Qualitative Comparative Analysis of resistance influence on the economic outcomes of all (14) Brazilian large-scale pulp projects between 2004-2008. The central hypothesis of the thesis is that corporate resource exploitation can be slowed down more effectively and likely when the resistance is based on contentious agency. Contentious agency is created by the concatenation of five mutually supporting mechanisms of contention: organizing and politicizing a social movement; heterodox framing of pulp projects; protesting; networking; and embedding whilst maintaining autonomy. The findings suggest that contentious agency can slow or even reverse the expansion of industrial plantations, whereas when contentious agency promotion was inactive, fast or even unchecked plantation expansion was always the outcome. The rule applied to all the assessed 14 pulp conflict cases. The hypothesis gained strong support even in situations where corporate agency promotion was simultaneously active. In previous studies on social movements, there has been a lack of contributions that help us understand the causal mechanisms of contention influencing economic outcomes. The thesis answers to the call by merging a Polanyian analysis of the political economy with the Dynamics of Contention research program and making a case for the impact of contentious agency on capital accumulation. The research concludes that an efficient social movement can utilize mechanisms of contention to promote the potential of activism among its members and influence investment outcomes. Protesting, for example via pioneering land occupations, seemed to be particularly important. Until now, there has been no comprehensive theory on when and how contentious agency can slow down or reverse the expansion of corporate resource exploitation. The original contribution of this research is to provide such a theory, and utilize it to offer an extensive explanation on the conflicts over pulp investment in Brazil, the globalization of the paper industry, and slowing of industrial plantation expansion in the global South.

Functional imaging of peripheral vision and dorsal stream function in the human cerebral cortex

Visual information processing in brain proceeds in both serial and parallel fashion throughout various functionally distinct hierarchically organised cortical areas. Feedforward signals from retina and hierarchically lower cortical levels are the major activators of visual neurons, but top-down and feedback signals from higher level cortical areas have a modulating effect on neural processing. My work concentrates on visual encoding in hierarchically low level cortical visual areas in human brain and examines neural processing especially in cortical representation of visual field periphery. I use magnetoencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure neuromagnetic and hemodynamic responses during visual stimulation and oculomotor and cognitive tasks from healthy volunteers. My thesis comprises six publications. Visual cortex forms a great challenge for modeling of neuromagnetic sources. My work shows that a priori information of source locations are needed for modeling of neuromagnetic sources in visual cortex. In addition, my work examines other potential confounding factors in vision studies such as light scatter inside the eye which may result in erroneous responses in cortex outside the representation of stimulated region, and eye movements and attention. I mapped cortical representations of peripheral visual field and identified a putative human homologue of functional area V6 of the macaque in the posterior bank of parieto-occipital sulcus. My work shows that human V6 activates during eye-movements and that it responds to visual motion at short latencies. These findings suggest that human V6, like its monkey homologue, is related to fast processing of visual stimuli and visually guided movements. I demonstrate that peripheral vision is functionally related to eye-movements and connected to rapid stream of functional areas that process visual motion. In addition, my work shows two different forms of top-down modulation of neural processing in the hierachically lowest cortical levels; one that is related to dorsal stream activation and may reflect motor processing or resetting signals that prepare visual cortex for change in the environment and another local signal enhancement at the attended region that reflects local feed-back signal and may perceptionally increase the stimulus saliency.

Growth factor induction in intervertebral disc tissue: Observations in basic mechanisms of disc degeneration and rearrangement

The intervertebral disc is composed of concentrically arranged components: annulus fibrosus, the transition zone, and central nucleus pulposus. The major disc cell type differs in various parts of the intervertebral disc. In annulus fibrosus a spindle shaped fibroblast-like cell mainly dominates, whereas in central nucleus pulposus the more rounded chondrocyte-like disc cell is the major cell type. At birth the intervertebral disc is well vascularized, but during childhood and adolescence blood vessels become smaller and less numerous. The adult intervertebral disc is avascular and is nourished via the cartilage endplates. On the other hand, degenerated and prolapsed intervertebral discs are again vascularized, and show many changes compared to normal discs, including: nerve ingrowth, change in collagen turnover, and change in water content. Furthermore, the prolapsed intervertebral disc tissue has a tendency to decrease in size over time. Growth factors are polypeptides which regulate cell growth, extracellular matrix protease activity, and vascularization. Oncoproteins c-Fos and c-Jun heterodimerize, forming the AP-1 transcription factor which is expressed in activated cells. In this thesis the differences of growth factor expression in normal intervertebral disc, the degenerated intervertebral disc and herniated intervertebral disc were analyzed. Growth factors of particular interest were basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF or FGF-2), platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ). Cell activation was visualized by the expression of the AP-1 transcription promoters c-Fos and c-Jun. The expression was shown with either mono- or polyclonal antibodies by indirect avidin-biotin-peroxidase immunohistochemical staining method. The normal control material was collected from a tissue bank of five organ donors. The degenerated disc material was from twelve patients operated on for painful degenerative disc disease, and herniated disc tissue material was obtained from 115 patients operated on for sciatica. Normal control discs showed only TGFβ immunopositivity. All other factors studied were immunonegative in the control material. Prolapsed disc material was immunopositive for all factors studied, and this positivity was located either in the disc cells or in blood vessels. Furthermore, neovascularization was noted. Disc cell immunoreaction was shown in chondrocyte-like disc cells or in fibroblast-like disc cells, the former being expressed especially in conglomerates (clusters of disc cells). TGFβ receptor induction was prominent in prolapsed intervertebral disc tissue. In degenerated disc material, the expression of growth factors was analyzed in greater detail in various parts of the disc: nucleus pulposus, anterior annulus fibrosus and posterior annulus fibrosus. PDGF did not show any immunoreactivity, whereas all other studied growth factors were localized either in chondrocyte-like disc cells, often forming clusters, in fibroblast-like disc cells, or in small capillaries. Many of the studied degenerated discs showed tears in the posterior region of annulus fibrosus, but expression of immunopositive growth factors was detected throughout the entire disc. Furthermore, there was a difference in immunopositive cell types for different growth factors. The main conclusion of the thesis, supported by all substudies, is the occurrence of growth factors in disc cells. They may be actively participating in a network regulating disc cell growth, proliferation, extracellular matrix turnover, and neovascularization. Chondrocyte-like disc cells, in particular, expressed growth factors and oncoproteins, highlighting the importance of this cell type in the basic pathophysiologic events involved in disc degeneration and disc rearrangement. The thesis proposes a hypothesis for cellular remodelling in intervertebral disc tissue. In summary, the model presents an activation pattern of different growth factors at different intervertebral disc stages, mechanisms leading to neovascularization of the intervertebral disc in pathological conditions, and alteration of disc cell shape, especially in annulus fibrosus. Chondrocyte-like disc cells become more numerous, and these cells are capable of forming clusters, which appear to be regionally active within the disc. The alteration of the phenotype of disc cells expressing growth factors from fibroblast-like disc cells to chondrocyte-like cells in annulus fibrosus, and the numerous expression of growth factor expressing disc cells in nucleus pulposus, may be a key element both during pathological degeneration of the intervertebral disc, and during the healing process after trauma.