17 resultados para 420200 Literature Studies
em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki
Resumo:
Da hatte das Pferd die Nüstern voll. Gebrauch und Funktion von Phraseologie im Kinderbuch. Untersuchungen zu Erich Kästner und anderen Autoren. [Da hatte das Pferd die Nüstern voll. Fraseologian käyttö ja tehtävä lastenkirjallisuudessa. Tutkimuksia Erich Kästnerin ja muiden kirjailijoiden tuotannossa.] Usein oletetaan, että idiomit ovat lapsille vaikeita ymmärtää, koska niiden merkitystä ei voi kokonaisuudessaan johtaa rakenteeseen kuuluvien yksittäisten sanojen merkityksestä. Silti lastenkirjallisuudessa idiomeja käytetään paljon ja monessa eri tehtävässä. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkistetaan fraseologian (idiomien ja sanalaskujen) käytön koko skaala saksankielisessä lastenkirjallisuudessa Erich Kästnerin (1899-1976) klassikoista tähän päivään asti. Kolmen eri korpuksen avulla (905 idiomiesimerkkiä kuudesta Kästnerin lastenkirjasta, 333 idiomia kahdesta Kästnerin aikuisromaanista ja 580 esimerkkiä kuudesta eri kirjailijoiden kirjoittamasta lastenkirjasta) pyritään vastamaan mm. seuraaviin kysymyksiin: Kuinka paljon ja minkälaisia idiomeja teksteissä käytetään? Miten idiomit sijoitetaan teksteihin, minkälaisia suhteita kontekstiin rakentuu? Millaisia eroavaisuuksia idiomien käytössä on havaittavissa ensinnäkin saman kirjailijan (Kästnerin) lastenkirjojen ja aikuisille tarkoitettujen kirjojen välillä sekä toisaalta eri kirjailijoiden kirjoittamien lastenkirjojen välillä? Tutkimuksesta käy ilmi, että idiomien käyttö vaihtelee lastenkirjallisuudessa ensisijaisesti kirjailijoittain, joka näkyy erilaisten ’fraseologisten profiilien’ esiintyminä. Parafraasien käyttö (idiomin rinnalle asetetaan synonyyminen ei-idiomaattinen ilmaisu) on varsin yleistä kaikissa tutkituissa lastenkirjoissa. Kästnerin lastenkirjoissa parafraasin käyttö on selvästi yleisempää kuin aikuisromaaneissa. Näyttää siltä, että lastenkirjallisuudessa siis tietoisesti tai tiedostumatta otetaan huomioon lasten rajoitettu fraseologinen kompetenssi.
Resumo:
Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan kaaosteorian vaikutusta kaunokirjallisuudessa ja kirjallisuudentutkimuksessa ja esitetään, että kaaosteorian roolia kirjallisuuden kentällä voidaan parhaiten ymmärtää sen avaamien käsitteiden kautta. Suoran soveltamisen sijaan kaaosteorian avulla on käyty uudenlaisia keskusteluja vanhoista aiheista ja luonnontieteestä ammennetut käsitteet ovat johtaneet aiemmin tukkeutuneiden argumenttien avaamiseen uudesta näkökulmasta käsin. Väitöskirjassa keskitytään kolmeen osa-alueeseen: kaunokirjallisen teoksen rakenteen teoretisointiin, ihmisen (erityisesti tekijän) identiteetin hahmottamiseen ja kuvailemiseen sekä fiktion ja todellisuuden suhteen pohdintaan. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on osoittaa, kuinka kaaosteorian kautta näitä aiheita on lähestytty niin kirjallisuustieteessä kuin kaunokirjallisissa teoksissakin. Väitöskirjan keskiössä ovat romaanikirjailija John Barthin, dramatisti Tom Stoppardin ja runoilija Jorie Grahamin teosten analyysit. Nämä kirjailijat ammentavat kaaosteoriasta keinoja käsitteellistää rakenteita, jotka ovat yhtä aikaa dynaamisia prosesseja ja hahmotettavia muotoja. Kaunokirjallisina teemoina nousevat esiin myös ihmisen paradoksaalisesti tunnistettava ja aina muuttuva identiteetti sekä lopullista haltuunottoa pakeneva, mutta silti kiehtova ja tavoiteltava todellisuus. Näiden kirjailijoiden teosten analyysin sekä teoreettisen keskustelun kautta väitöskirjassa tuodaan esiin aiemmassa tutkimuksessa varjoon jäänyt, koherenssia, ymmärrettävyyttä ja realismia painottava humanistinen näkökulma kaaosteorian merkityksestä kirjallisuudessa.
Resumo:
Kirjallisuuden- ja kulttuurintutkimus on viimeisten kolmen vuosikymmenen aikana tullut yhä enenevässä määrin tietoiseksi tieteen ja taiteen suhteen monimutkaisesta luonteesta. Nykyään näiden kahden kulttuurin tutkimus muodostaa oman kenttänsä, jolla niiden suhdetta tarkastellaan ennen kaikkea dynaamisena vuorovaikutuksena, joka heijastaa kulttuurimme kieltä, arvoja ja ideologisia sisältöjä. Toisin kuin aiemmat näkemykset, jotka pitävät tiedettä ja taidetta toisilleen enemmän tai vähemmän vastakkaisina pyrkimyksinä, nykytutkimus lähtee oletuksesta, jonka mukaan ne ovat kulttuurillisesti rakentuneita diskursseja, jotka kohtaavat usein samankaltaisia todellisuuden mallintamiseen liittyviä ongelmia, vaikka niiden käyttämät metodit eroavatkin toisistaan. Väitöskirjani keskittyy yllä mainitun suhteen osa-alueista popularisoidun tietokirjallisuuden (muun muassa Paul Davies, James Gleick ja Richard Dawkins) käyttämän kielen ja luonnontieteistä ideoita ammentavan kaunokirjallisuuden (muun muassa Jeanette Winterson, Tom Stoppard ja Richard Powers) hyödyntämien keinojen tarkasteluun nojautuen yli 30 teoksen kattavaa aineistoa koskevaan tyylin ja teemojen tekstianalyysiin. Populaarin tietokirjallisuuden osalta tarkoituksenani on osoittaa, että sen käyttämä kieli rakentuu huomattavassa määrin sellaisille rakenteille, jotka tarjoavat mahdollisuuden esittää todellisuutta koskevia argumentteja mahdollisimman vakuuttavalla tavalla. Tässä tehtävässä monilla klassisen retoriikan määrittelemillä kuvioilla on tärkeä rooli, koska ne auttavat liittämään sanotun sisällön ja muodon tiukasti toisiinsa: retoristen kuvioiden käyttö ei näin ollen edusta pelkkää tyylikeinoa, vaan se myös usein kiteyttää argumenttien taustalla olevat tieteenfilosofiset olettamukset ja auttaa vakiinnuttamaan argumentoinnin logiikan. Koska monet aikaisemmin ilmestyneistä tutkimuksista ovat keskittyneet pelkästään metaforan rooliin tieteellisissä argumenteissa, tämä väitöskirja pyrkii laajentamaan tutkimuskenttää analysoimalla myös toisenlaisten kuvioiden käyttöä. Osoitan myös, että retoristen kuvioiden käyttö muodostaa yhtymäkohdan tieteellisiä ideoita hyödyntävään kaunokirjallisuuteen. Siinä missä popularisoitu tiede käyttää retoriikkaa vahvistaakseen sekä argumentatiivisia että kaunokirjallisia ominaisuuksiaan, kuvaa tällainen sanataide tiedettä tavoilla, jotka usein heijastelevat tietokirjallisuuden kielellisiä rakenteita. Toisaalta on myös mahdollista nähdä, miten kaunokirjallisuuden keinot heijastuvat popularisoidun tieteen kerrontatapoihin ja kieleen todistaen kahden kulttuurin dynaamisesta vuorovaikutuksesta. Nykyaikaisen populaaritieteen retoristen elementtien ja kaunokirjallisuuden keinojen vertailu näyttää lisäksi, kuinka tiede ja taide osallistuvat keskusteluun kulttuurimme tiettyjen peruskäsitteiden kuten identiteetin, tiedon ja ajan merkityksestä. Tällä tavoin on mahdollista nähdä, että molemmat ovat perustavanlaatuisia osia merkityksenantoprosessissa, jonka kautta niin tieteelliset ideat kuin ihmiselämän suuret kysymyksetkin saavat kulttuurillisesti rakentuneen merkityksensä.
Resumo:
This dissertation contributes to the fields of theoretical translation studies, semiotic translation theory, and the semiotics of translation. The aim of this work is to explore the alternative and potential which the semiotic approaches to translation entail from the viewpoint of contemporary translation studies. The overall objective is thus to show that a general semiotic translation theory, and in particular, a Peircean translation theory, are possible and indispensable. Furthermore, this study contributes to the semiotranslational approach and to its theory-building by developing the concept of abductive translation (studies). The specific theoretical frame of reference adopted in this study is provided by the semiotranslation introduced by Dinda L. Gorlée. This approach is primarily based on the semeiotic of Charles Sanders Peirce (1839 1914), and aims at a fusion of semiotics and translation studies. A more general framework is provided by the threefold background and material: the published and unpublished writings of Peirce, Peirce scholarship and Peircean-semiotic publications, as well as the translation-theoretical literature. Part One of this study concentrates on the justification, existence, and nature of the semiotic approaches to translation. This part provides a historical survey, a status report, and a discussion of this area of research, by employing the findings in a boundary-clearing that is multilayered both conceptually and terminologically. Part Two deals with Peircean semiotranslation. Here Gorlée s semiotranslational research is examined by focusing on the starting points, features, and development of semiotranslation. Attention is also paid to the state-of-the-art of semiotranslation theory and to the possibilities for future elaborations. Part Three focuses on the semiotranslational claim that translation is an abductive activity. The concept of abductive translation is based on abduction, one of Peirce s three modes of reasoning; at the same time Firstness, the category of abduction, becomes foregrounded. So abductive translation as a form of possibilistic translation receives here an extensive theoretical discussion by citing examples in which abduction manifests itself as (scientific) reasoning and as everyday contemplation. During this treatise, translation is first equated with sign action, then with interpretation and finally with reasoning. All these approaches appear to embody different facets of the same phenomenon Peirce s ubiquitous semiosis, and they all suggest that translation is inherently an intersemiotic activity in which a sign is inferred from another sign. Translation is therefore semiosis, semiosis is translation and interpretation, interpretation is reasoning, and so on ad infinitum all being manifestations of the art of marshalling signs. The three parts of this study are linked by the overall goal of abductive translation studies: investigation into abductive translation develops the theory of semiotranslation, and this enrichment of semiotranslation in turn constructs a semiotic paradigm within translation studies.
Resumo:
This study concentrates on the contested concept of pastiche in literary studies. It offers the first detailed examination of the history of the concept from its origins in the seventeenth century to the present, showing how pastiche emerged as a critical concept in interaction with the emerging conception of authorial originality and the copyright laws protecting it. One of the key results of this investigation is the contextualisation of the postmodern debate on pastiche. Even though postmodern critics often emphasise the radical novelty of pastiche, they in fact resuscitate older positions and arguments without necessarily reflecting on their historical conditions. This historical background is then used to analyse the distinction between the primarily French conception of pastiche as the imitation of style and the postmodern notion of it as the compilation of different elements. The latter s vagueness and inclusiveness detracts from its value as a critical concept. The study thus concentrates on the notion of stylistic pastiche, challenging the widespread prejudice that it is merely an indication of lack of talent. Because it is multiply based on repetition, pastiche is in fact a highly ambiguous or double-edged practice that calls into question the distinction between repetition and original, thereby undermining the received notion of individual unique authorship as a fundamental aesthetic value. Pastiche does not, however, constitute a radical upheaval of the basic assumptions on which the present institution of literature relies, since, in order to mark its difference, pastiche always refers to a source outside itself against which its difference is measured. Finally, the theoretical analysis of pastiche is applied to literary works. The pastiches written by Marcel Proust demonstrate how it can become an integral part of a writer s poetics: imitation of style is shown to provide Proust with a way of exploring the role of style as a connecting point between inner vision and reality. The pastiches of the Sherlock Holmes stories by Michael Dibdin, Nicholas Meyer and the duo Adrian Conan Doyle and John Dickson Carr illustrate the functions of pastiche within a genre detective fiction that is itself fundamentally repetitive. A.S. Byatt s Possession and D.M. Thomas s Charlotte use Victorian pastiches to investigate the conditions of literary creation in the age of postmodern suspicion of creativity and individuality. The study thus argues that the concept of pastiche has valuable insights to offer to literary criticism and theory, and that literary pastiches, though often dismissed in reviews and criticism, are a particularly interesting object of study precisely because of their characteristic ambiguity.
Resumo:
This dissertation examined the research-based teacher education at the University of Helsinki from different theoretical and practical perspectives. Five studies focused on these perspectives separately as well as overlappingly. Study I focused on the reflection process of graduating teacher students. The data consisted of essays the students wrote as their last assignment before graduating, where their assignment was to examine their development as researchers during their MA thesis research process. The results indicated that the teacher students had analysed their own development thoroughly during the process and that they had reflected on theoretical as well as practical educational matters. The results also pointed out that, in the students’ opinion, personally conducted research is a significant learning process. -- Study II investigated teacher students’ workplace learning and the integration of theory and practice in teacher education. The students’ interviews focused on their learning of teacher’s work prior to education. The interviewees’ responses concerning their ‘surviving’ in teaching prior to teacher education were categorized into three categories: learning through experiences, school as a teacher learning environment, and case-specific learning. The survey part of the study focused on integration of theory and practice within the education process. The results showed that the students who worked while they studied took advantage of the studies and applied them to work. They set more demanding teaching goals and reflected on their work more theoretically. -- Study III examined practical aspects of the teacher students’ MA thesis research as well as the integration of theory and practice in teacher education. The participants were surveyed using a web-based survey which dealt with the participants’ teacher education experiences. According to the results, most of the students had chosen a practical topic for their MA thesis, one arising from their work environment, and most had chosen a research topic that would develop their own teaching. The results showed that the integration of theory and practice had taken place in much of the course work, but most obviously in the practicum periods, and also in the courses concerning the school subjects. The majority felt that the education had in some way been successful with regards to integration. -- Study IV explored the idea of considering teacher students’ MA thesis research as professional development. Twenty-three teachers were interviewed on the subject of their experiences of conducting research about their own work as teachers. The results of the interviews showed that the reasons for choosing the MA thesis research topic were multiple: practical, theoretical, personal, professional reasons, as well as outside effect. The objectives of the MA thesis research, besides graduating, were actual projects, developing the ability to work as teachers, conducting significant research, and sharing knowledge of the topic. The results indicated that an MA thesis can function as a tool for professional development, for example in finding ways for adjusting teaching, increasing interaction skills, gaining knowledge or improving reflection on theory and/or practice, strengthening self-confidence as a teacher, increasing researching skills or academic writing skills, as well as becoming critical and being able to read scientific and academic literature. -- Study V analysed teachers’ views of the impact of practitioner research. According to the results, the interviewees considered the benefits of practitioner research to be many, affecting teachers, pupils, parents, the working community, and the wider society. Most of the teachers indicated that they intended to continue to conduct research in the future. The results also showed that teachers often reflected personally and collectively, and viewed this as important. -- These five studies point out that MA thesis research is and can be a useful tool for increasing reflection doing with personal and professional development, as well as integrating theory and practice. The studies suggest that more advantage could be taken of the MA thesis research project. More integration of working and studying could and should be made possible for teacher students. This could be done in various ways within teacher education, but the MA thesis should be seen as a pedagogical possibility.
Resumo:
The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze and explicate the ideological content, which is often implicit, in the health care rationing discussion. The phrase "ideological content" refers to viewpoints and assumptions expressed in the rationing discussion that may be widespread and accepted, but without clear evidential support. The study method is philosophical text analysis. The study begins by exploring the literature from the 1970s that affects the present-day rationing discussion. Since ideological contents may have different emphases in realm of health care, three representative cases were studied. The first was a case study of the first and best-known rationing experiment in the American state of Oregon, namely, an experimental rationing plan within the public health program Medicaid, which is designed to provide care for the poor and underprivileged. The second was a study of the only national-level public priority setting that has been conducted in New Zealand. The third examined the Finnish Care Guarantee plan introduced in March 2005. The findings show that several problematic and scientifically mostly unproven concepts have remained largely uncontested in the debate about public health care rationing. Some of these notions already originated decades ago in studies that relied on outdated data or research paradigms. The problematic ideological contents have also been taken up from one publication into another, thereby affecting the rationing debate. The study suggests that before any new public health care rationing experiments are undertaken, these ideological factors should be properly examined, especially in order to avoid repetitious research and perhaps erroneous rationing decisions.
Resumo:
This doctoral thesis addresses the macroeconomic effects of real shocks in open economies in flexible exchange rate regimes. The first study of this thesis analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the `pure waste' case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. The second study of this thesis analyses the question of how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on optimal intertemporal behaviour. The key result is that the effects of fiscal policy depend on the size of the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. In particular, the sign of the current account response to fiscal policy depends on the interplay between the intertemporal elasticity of aggregate consumption and the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. The third study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. The fourth study analyses the question of how the international transmission of technology shocks depends on the specification of nominal rigidities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a temporary decline in employment. In this study, I demonstrate that the open economy dimension can enhance the ability of sticky price models to account for the evidence. The reasoning is as follows. An improvement in technology appreciates the nominal exchange rate. Under producer-currency pricing, the exchange rate appreciation shifts global demand toward foreign goods away from domestic goods. This causes a temporary decline in domestic employment.
Resumo:
Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms. However, in excess, they contribute to several environmental problems such as aquatic and terrestrial eutrophication. Globally, human action has multiplied the volume of N and P cycling since the onset of industrialization. The multiplication is a result of intensified agriculture, increased energy consumption and population growth. Industrial ecology (IE) is a discipline, in which human interaction with the ecosystems is investigated using a systems analytical approach. The main idea behind IE is that industrial systems resemble ecosystems, and, like them, industrial systems can then be described using material, energy and information flows and stocks. Industrial systems are dependent on the resources provided by the biosphere, and these two cannot be separated from each other. When studying substance flows, the aims of the research from the viewpoint of IE can be, for instance, to elucidate the ways how the cycles of a certain substance could be more closed and how the flows of a certain substance could be decreased per unit of production (= dematerialization). In Finland, N and P are studied widely in different ecosystems and environmental emissions. A holistic picture comparing different societal systems is, however, lacking. In this thesis, flows of N and P were examined in Finland using substance flow analysis (SFA) in the following four subsystems: I) forest industry and use of wood fuels, II) food production and consumption, III) energy, and IV) municipal waste. A detailed analysis at the end of the 1990s was performed. Furthermore, historical development of the N and P flows was investigated in the energy system (III) and the municipal waste system (IV). The main research sources were official statistics, literature, monitoring data, and expert knowledge. The aim was to identify and quantify the main flows of N and P in Finland in the four subsystems studied. Furthermore, the aim was to elucidate whether the nutrient systems are cyclic or linear, and to identify how these systems could be more efficient in the use and cycling of N and P. A final aim was to discuss how this type of an analysis can be used to support decision-making on environmental problems and solutions. Of the four subsystems, the food production and consumption system and the energy system created the largest N flows in Finland. For the creation of P flows, the food production and consumption system (Paper II) was clearly the largest, followed by the forest industry and use of wood fuels and the energy system. The contribution of Finland to N and P flows on a global scale is low, but when compared on a per capita basis, we are one of the largest producers of these flows, with relatively high energy and meat consumption being the main reasons. Analysis revealed the openness of all four systems. The openness is due to the high degree of internationality of the Finnish markets, the large-scale use of synthetic fertilizers and energy resources and the low recycling rate of many waste fractions. Reduction in the use of fuels and synthetic fertilizers, reorganization of the structure of energy production, reduced human intake of nutrients and technological development are crucial in diminishing the N and P flows. To enhance nutrient recycling and replace inorganic fertilizers, recycling of such wastes as wood ash and sludge could be promoted. SFA is not usually sufficiently detailed to allow specific recommendations for decision-making to be made, but it does yield useful information about the relative magnitude of the flows and may reveal unexpected losses. Sustainable development is a widely accepted target for all human action. SFA is one method that can help to analyse how effective different efforts are in leading to a more sustainable society. SFA's strength is that it allows a holistic picture of different natural and societal systems to be drawn. Furthermore, when the environmental impact of a certain flow is known, the method can be used to prioritize environmental policy efforts.
Resumo:
Lupus erythematosus (LE) is a chronic, heterogeneous autoimmune disorder with abnormal immune responses, including production of autoantibodies and immune complexes. Clinical presentations of the disease range from mild cutaneous manifestations to a more generalised systemic involvement of internal organs. Cutaneous (CLE) forms are further subclassified into discoid LE (DLE), subacute cutaneous LE (SCLE) and acute cutaneous lupus erythematosus (ACLE), and may later progress to systemic disease (SLE). Both genetic and environmental factors contribute to the disease, although the precise aetiology is still elusive. Furthermore, complex gene-gene or gene-environment interactions may result in different subphenotypes of lupus. The genetic background of CLE is poorly known and only a few genes are confirmed, while the number of robust genetic associations in SLE exceeds 30. The aim of this thesis was to characterise the recruited patients clinically, and identify genetic variants conferring susceptibility to cutaneous variants of LE. Given that cutaneous and systemic disease may share underlying genetic factors, putative CLE candidate genes for genotyping were selected among those showing strong evidence of association in SLE. The correlation between relevant clinical manifestations and risk genotypes was investigated in order to find specific subphenotype associations. In addition, epistatic interactions in SLE were studied. Finally, the role of tissue degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) in LE tissue injury was explored. These studies were conducted in Finnish case-control and family cohort, and Swedish case-control cohort. The clinical picture of the patients in terms of cutaneous, haematological and immunological findings resembled that described in the contemporary literature. However, the proportion of daily smokers was very high supporting the role of smoking in disease aetiology. The results confirmed that, even though clinically distinct entities, CLE and SLE share predisposing genetic factors. For the first time it was shown that known SLE susceptibility genes IRF5 and TYK2 also increase the risk of CLE. A tendency toward gene-gene interaction between these genes was found in SLE. As a remarkable novel finding, it was observed that ITGAM polymorphisms associated even more strongly to DLE than SLE, and the risk estimates were substantially higher than those reported for SLE. Several other recently identified SLE susceptibility genes showed signs of good or modest association especially in DLE. Subphenotype analyses indicated possible associations to clinical features, but marginally significant results reflected lack of sufficient power for these studies. Thorough immunohistochemical analyses of several MMPs demonstrated a role in epidermal changes and dermal tissue remodelling in diseased skin, and suggested that targeted action using selective MMP inhibitors may reduce lupus-induced damage in inflamed tissues. In conclusion, the results provide an insight into the genetics of CLE and demonstrate that genetic predisposition is at least in part shared between cutaneous and systemic variants of LE. This doctoral study has contributed IRF5, TYK2, ITGAM and several other novel genes to the so far short list of genes implicated in CLE susceptibility. Detailed examination of the function of these genes in CLE pathogenesis warrants further studies. Furthermore, the results support the need of subphenotype analysis with sample sizes large enough to reveal possible specific disease associations in order to better understand the heterogeneous nature and clinical specificities of the disease. Comprehensive analysis of clinical data suggests that smoking is an environmental triggering factor.
Resumo:
This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.
Resumo:
Background: The Internet has recently made possible the free global availability of scientific journal articles. Open Access (OA) can occur either via OA scientific journals, or via authors posting manuscripts of articles published in subscription journals in open web repositories. So far there have been few systematic studies showing how big the extent of OA is, in particular studies covering all fields of science. Methodology/Principal Findings: The proportion of peer reviewed scholarly journal articles, which are available openly in full text on the web, was studied using a random sample of 1837 titles and a web search engine. Of articles published in 2008, 8,5% were freely available at the publishers’ sites. For an additional 11,9% free manuscript versions could be found using search engines, making the overall OA percentage 20,4%. Chemistry (13%) had the lowest overall share of OA, Earth Sciences (33%) the highest. In medicine, biochemistry and chemistry publishing in OA journals was more common. In all other fields author-posted manuscript copies dominated the picture. Conclusions/Significance: The results show that OA already has a significant positive impact on the availability of the scientific journal literature and that there are big differences between scientific disciplines in the uptake. Due to the lack of awareness of OA-publishing among scientists in most fields outside physics, the results should be of general interest to all scholars. The results should also interest academic publishers, who need to take into account OA in their business strategies and copyright policies, as well as research funders, who like the NIH are starting to require OA availability of results from research projects they fund. The method and search tools developed also offer a good basis for more in-depth studies as well as longitudinal studies.
Resumo:
The concept of globalization has become a shorthand for making sense of contemporary society. It reflects large-scale economic and social change, which affects people differently and evokes different viewpoints. Globalization is thus a highly contested concept and phenomenon. Contradictory and competing views, in turn, seem to be based on different interpretations of the present dominant forms of globalization, and of the material, economic, social and cultural conditions that these forms produce and give rise to. We view globalization not only as a significant set of economic, financial, social, political and cultural forces but as a powerful and contested discursive space. In this article, we present an overview of recent literature to introduce different thematic perspectives on globalization, to specify different ideological and discursive bases to approach globalization, and to place multinational corporations (MNC:s) within this context. Our account is not exhaustive, rather, it is intended as a basis for further discussion on the nature and role of multinational corporations in complex ”global” society