The Negative News Threshold - an Explanation for Negative Skewness in Stock Returns

A vast literature documents negative skewness and excess kurtosis in stock return distributions on several markets. We approach the issue of negative skewness from a different angle than in previous studies by suggesting a model, which we denote the “negative news threshold” hypothesis, that builds on asymmetrically distributed information and symmetric market responses. Our empirical tests reveal that returns for days when non-scheduled news are disclosed are the source of negative skewness in stock returns. This finding lends solid support to our model and suggests that negative skewness in stock returns is induced by asymmetries in the news disclosure policies of firm management.

Finding a maximum skewness portfolio - A general solution to three-moments portfolio choice

Considering the three first moments and allowing short sales, the efficient portfolios set for n risky assets and a riskless one is found, supposing that agents like odd moments and dislike even ones. Analytical formulas for the solution surface are obtained and important geometric properties provide insights on its shape in the three dimensional space defined by the moments. A special duality result is needed and proved. The methodology is general, comprising situations in which, for instance, the investor trades a negative skewness for a higher expected return. Computation of the optimum portfolio weights is feasible in most cases.

Essays on Stock Market Reactions to New Information

A functioning stock market is an essential component of a competitive economy, since it provides a mechanism for allocating the economy’s capital stock. In an ideal situation, the stock market will steer capital in a manner that maximizes the total utility of the economy. As prices of traded stocks depend on and vary with information available to investors, it is apparent that information plays a crucial role in a functioning stock market. However, even though information indisputably matters, several issues regarding how stock markets process and react to new information still remain unanswered. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the link between new information and stock market reactions. The first essay utilizes new methodological tools in order to investigate the average reaction of investors to new financial statement information. The second essay explores the behavior of different types of investors when new financial statement information is disclosed to the market. The third essay looks into the interrelation between investor size, behavior and overconfidence. The fourth essay approaches the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than previous studies. The first essay presents evidence of the second derivatives of some financial statement signals containing more information than the first derivatives. Further, empirical evidence also indicates that some of the investigated signals proxy risk while others contain information priced with a delay. The second essay documents different categories of investors demonstrating systematical differences in their behavior when new financial statement information arrives to the market. In addition, a theoretical model building on differences in investor overconfidence is put forward in order to explain the observed behavior. The third essay shows that investor size describes investor behavior very well. This finding is predicted by the model proposed in the second essay, and hence strengthens the model. The behavioral differences between investors of different size furthermore have significant economic implications. Finally, the fourth essay finds strong evidence of management news disclosure practices causing negative skewness in stock returns.

Essays on Stock Options, Incentives, and Managerial Action

Executive compensation and managerial behavior have received an increasing amount of attention in the financial economics literature since the mid 1970s. The purpose of this thesis is to extend our understanding of managerial compensation, especially how stock option compensation is linked to the actions undertaken by the management. Furthermore, managerial compensation is continuously and heatedly debated in the media and an emerging consensus from this discussion seems to be that there still exists gaps in our knowledge of optimal contracting. In Finland, the first executive stock options were introduced in the 1980s and throughout the last 15 years it has become increasingly popular for Finnish listed firms to use this type of managerial compensation. The empirical work in the thesis is conducted using data from Finland, in contrast to most previous studies that predominantly use U.S. data. Using Finnish data provides insight of how market conditions affect compensation and managerial action and provides an opportunity to explore what parts of the U.S. evidence can be generalized to other markets. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay investigates the exercise policy of the executive stock option holders in Finland. In summary, Essay 1 contributes to our understanding of the exercise policies by examining both the determinants of the exercise decision and the markets reaction to the actual exercises. The second essay analyzes the factors driving stock option grants using data for Finnish publicly listed firms. Several agency theory based variables are found to have have explanatory power on the likelihood of a stock option grant. Essay 2 also contributes to our understanding of behavioral factors, such as prior stock return, as determinants of stock option compensation. The third essay investigates the tax and stock option motives for share repurchases and dividend distributions. We document strong support for the tax motive for share repurchases. Furthermore, we also analyze the dividend distribution decision in companies with stock options and find a significant difference between companies with and without dividend protected options. We thus document that the cutting of dividends found in previous U.S. studies can be avoided by dividend protection. In the fourth essay we approach the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than in previous studies. We suggest that negative skewness in stock returns is generated by management disclosure practices and find proof for this. More specifically, we find that negative skewness in daily returns is induced by returns for days when non-scheduled firm specific news is disclosed.

The effects of sediment transport on grain-size distributions

Changes in statistics (mean, sorting, and skewness) describing grain-size distributions have long been used to speculate on the direction of sediment transport. We present a simple model whereby the distributions of sediment in transport are related to their source by a sediment transfer function which defines the relative probability that a grain within each particular class interval will be eroded and transported. A variety of empirically derived transfer functions exhibit negatively skewed distributions (on a phi scale). Thus, when a sediment is being eroded, the probability of any grain going into transport increases with diminishing grain size throughout more than half of its size range. This causes the sediment in transport to be finer and more negatively skewed than its source, whereas the remaining sediment (a lag) must become relatively coarser and more positively skewed. Flume experiments show that the distributions of transfer functions change from having a highly negative skewness to being nearly symmetrical (although still negatively skewed) as the energy of the transporting process increases. We call the two extremes low-energy and high-energy transfer functions , respectively. In an expanded sediment-transport model, successive deposits in the direction of transport are related by a combination of two transfer functions. If energy is decreasing and the transfer functions have low-energy distributions, successive deposits will become finer and more negatively skewed. If, however, energy is decreasing, but the initial transfer function has a high-energy distribution, successive deposits will become coarser and more positively skewed. The variance of the distributions of lags, sediment in transport, and successive deposits in the down-current direction must eventually decrease (i.e., the sediments will become better sorted). We demonstrate that it is possible for variance first to increase, but suggest that, in reality, an increasing variance in the direction of transport will seldom be observed, particularly when grain-size distributions are described in phi units. This model describing changes in sediment distributions was tested in a variety of environments where the transport direction was known. The results indicate that the model has real-world validity and can provide a method to predict the directions of sediment transport

US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of 'Cheap Money'

In this paper, we employ a unique dataset of actual US dollar (USD) forward positions against a number of currencies taken by so-called Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). We investigate to what extent these positions exhibit a pattern of USD carry trading or other patterns of currency trading over the recent period of the ultra-loose US monetary policy. Our analysis indeed shows that USD positions against emerging market currencies are characterised by a pattern of carry trading. That is, the USD, as the lower yielding currency, is associated with short positions. The payoff distributions of these positions, moreover, are found to have positive Sharpe ratios, negative skewness and high kurtosis. On the other hand, we find that USD positions against other advanced country currencies have a pattern completely opposite to carry trading which is in line with uncovered interest parity trading; that is, the lower (higher) yielding currency is associated with long (short) positions.

Are Idiosyncratic Skewness and Idiosyncratic Kurtosis Priced?

This thesis investigates the pricing effects of idiosyncratic moments. We document that idiosyncratic moments, namely idiosyncratic skewness and idiosyncratic kurtosis vary over time. If a factor/characteristic is priced, it must show minimum variation to be correlated with stock returns. Moreover, we can identify two structural breaks in the time series of idiosyncratic kurtosis. Using a sample of US stocks traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ markets from January 1970 to December 2013, we run Fama-MacBeth test at the individual stock level. We document a negative and significant pricing effect of idiosyncratic skewness, consistent with the finding of Boyer et al. (2010). We also report that neither idiosyncratic volatility nor idiosyncratic kurtosis are consistently priced. We run robustness tests using different model specifications and period sub-samples. Our results are robust to the different factors and characteristics usually included in the Fama-MacBeth pricing tests. We also split first our sample using endogenously determined structural breaks. Second, we divide our sample into three equal sub-periods. The results are consistent with our main findings suggesting that expected returns of individual stocks are explained by idiosyncratic skewness. Both idiosyncratic volatility and idiosyncratic kurtosis are irrelevant to asset prices at the individual stock level. As an alternative method, we run Fama-MacBeth tests at the portfolio level. We find that idiosyncratic skewness is not significantly related to returns on idiosyncratic skewness-sorted portfolios. However, it is significant when tested against idiosyncratic kurtosis sorted portfolios.

Are Idiosyncratic Skewness and Idiosyncratic Kurtosis Priced?

This thesis investigates the pricing effects of idiosyncratic moments. We document that idiosyncratic moments, namely idiosyncratic skewness and idiosyncratic kurtosis vary over time. If a factor/characteristic is priced, it must show minimum variation to be correlated with stock returns. Moreover, we can identify two structural breaks in the time series of idiosyncratic kurtosis. Using a sample of US stocks traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ markets from January 1970 to December 2013, we run Fama-MacBeth test at the individual stock level. We document a negative and significant pricing effect of idiosyncratic skewness, consistent with the finding of Boyer et al. (2010). We also report that neither idiosyncratic volatility nor idiosyncratic kurtosis are consistently priced. We run robustness tests using different model specifications and period sub-samples. Our results are robust to the different factors and characteristics usually included in the Fama-MacBeth pricing tests. We also split first our sample using endogenously determined structural breaks. Second, we divide our sample into three equal sub-periods. The results are consistent with our main findings suggesting that expected returns of individual stocks are explained by idiosyncratic skewness. Both idiosyncratic volatility and idiosyncratic kurtosis are irrelevant to asset prices at the individual stock level. As an alternative method, we run Fama-MacBeth tests at the portfolio level. We find that idiosyncratic skewness is not significantly related to returns on idiosyncratic skewness-sorted portfolios. However, it is significant when tested against idiosyncratic kurtosis sorted portfolios.

Skewness risk and bond prices

Statistical evidence is reported that even outside disaster periods, agents face negative consumption skewness, as well as positive inflation skewness. Quantitative implications of skewness risk for nominal loan contracts in a pure exchange economy are derived. Key modeling assumptions are Epstein-Zin preferences for traders and asymmetric distributions for consumption and inflation innovations. The model is solved using a third-order perturbation and estimated by the simulated method of moments. Results show that skewness risk accounts for 6 to 7 percent of the risk premia depending on the bond maturity.

An Investigation of Cognitive, Emotional and Negative Behavioural Responses to Service Recovery Strategies

Despite the best intentions of service providers and organisations, service delivery is rarely error-free. While numerous studies have investigated specific cognitive, emotional or behavioural responses to service failure and recovery, these studies do not fully capture the complexity of the services encounter. Consequently, this research develops a more holistic understanding of how specific service recovery strategies affect the responses of customers by combining two existing models—Smith & Bolton’s (2002) model of emotional responses to service performance and Fullerton and Punj’s (1993) structural model of aberrant consumer behaviour—into a conceptual framework. Specific service recovery strategies are proposed to influence consumer cognition, emotion and behaviour. This research was conducted using a 2x2 between-subjects quasi-experimental design that was administered via written survey. The experimental design manipulated two levels of two specific service recovery strategies: compensation and apology. The effect of the four recovery strategies were investigated by collecting data from 18-25 year olds and were analysed using multivariate analysis of covariance and multiple regression analysis. The results suggest that different service recovery strategies are associated with varying scores of satisfaction, perceived distributive justice, positive emotions, negative emotions and negative functional behaviour, but not dysfunctional behaviour. These finding have significant implications for the theory and practice of managing service recovery.

The relationship between significant others' positive and negative statements, self-talk and self-esteem

This study investigated the effect of self-talk in mediating between positive and negative statements made by significant others and self-esteem with children in grades 3 to 7. Students completed questionnaires on the frequency of positive and negative statements from parents, teachers, and peers. Findings suggest that self-talk does mediate between significant others' statements and children's self-esteem.