Risk Management Services in Energy Production

Työ käsittelee energian tuotannossa esiintyviä tärkeimpiä taloudellisia ja teknisiä riskejä sekä niiden hallitsemista energian tuottajan näkökulmasta. Ensiksi käsitellään yleisesti riskienhallintaa, eri riskityyppejä ja esitetään periaatteellinen riskienhallintaprosessi. Sen jälkeen tarkastellaan energiamarkkinoiden nykytilannetta lähinnä Pohjoismaiden tasolla ja verrataan sitä aikaisempaan tilanteeseen energian tuottajan kannalta. Tämä siksi, että energiamarkkinoiden vapautuminen on muuttanut merkittävästi energian tuotantoon liittyviä taloudellisia riskejä, käytännössä lisännyt niitä. Pääpaino on energian tuotannossa esiintyvien olennaisten riskien tarkastelussa ja niiden hallitsemisessa. Ensin esitellään työn kannalta olennaiset riskit ja tekijät joista ne aiheutuvat. Jokainen riski ja sen aiheuttamat haitat liiketoiminnalle kuvataan lyhyesti. Sen jälkeen kiinnitetään huomiota asioihin, jotka ovat tyypillisiä energian tuotannolle ja aiheuttavat samalla erikoisvaatimuksia riskienhallinnalle. Sitten käydään läpi sopivat riskienhallinnan menetelmät, jotka ovat yleisesti käytössä energian tuotannossa, aiemmin esitetyille olennaisille riskeille. Esitetyistä riskienhallinta menetelmistä useimpia ei ole kohdistettu millekään yksittäiselle riskille, vaan monia niistä voidaan käyttää useammankin riskin hallintaan.

Market Index Biases and Minimum Risk Indices

Markets, in the real world, are not efficient zero-sum games where hypotheses of the CAPM are fulfilled. Then, it is easy to conclude the market portfolio is not located on Markowitz"s efficient frontier, and passive investments (and indexing) are not optimal but biased. In this paper, we define and analyze biases suffered by passive investors: the sample, construction, efficiency and active biases and tracking error are presented. We propose Minimum Risk Indices (MRI) as an alternative to deal with to market index biases, and to provide investors with portfolios closer to the efficient frontier, that is, more optimal investment possibilities. MRI (using a Parametric Value-at-Risk Minimization approach) are calculated for three stock markets achieving interesting results. Our indices are less risky and more profitable than current Market Indices in the Argentinean and Spanish markets, facing that way the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Two innovations must be outlined: an error dimension has been included in the backtesting and the Sharpe"s Ratio has been used to select the"best" MRI

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Risk assessment tool for radical technologies – Case Technology A and Technology B

Työssä testataan radikaalien teknologioiden liiketoimintariskien evaluointityökalua. Työn teoreettinen tausta koostuu teknologia- ja innovaatioteorioista hyödyntäen myös resurssipohjaista yritysteoriaa täydennettynä evolutionäärisellä teorialla. Teoreettisessa osuudessa rakennetaan viitekehys, jolla liiketoimintariskejä voidaan arvioida ja muodostaa riskiprofiili. Liiketoimintariskien muuttujina ovat markkina-, teknologia- ja organisaatioriskit. Primäärisenä tietolähteenä käytettiin teema- ja strukturoituja haastatteluita. Ensimmäinen haastattelu käsitti evaluointityökalun käytettävyyttä ja riskienhallintaa yleensä. Loput haastattelut liittyivät teknologian A ja teknologian B liiketoimintariskien arvioimiseen. Tulokset osoittavat molemmat teknologiat sisältävän radikaaleille teknologioille ominaisia epävarmuustekijöitä. Riskiprofiilin hyödyllisyys liittyy liiketoimintariskien samanaikaiseen havaitsemiseen auttaen näin päätöksenteossa. Tärkeää evaluoinnissa on kiinnittää huomiota näkökulmaan, josta riskejä tarkastellaan riskiprofiilin validiteetin parantamiseksi.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Supply Risk Management in Pharmaceutical

Fast development in the operating environment and fierce competition have driven companies to pursue efficiency and success through lean and global supply chains. At the same time overall uncertainty has increased in the business environment and supply chains have become a priority in risk management since their vulnerability may endanger business continuity. Although risk management should start at procurement strategy development phase, proactive contingency planning is also essential because it enables correct reaction and fast changes in process execution in the case of risk realization. This thesis is a case study conducted in the pharmaceutical industry where purchasing and materials management organizations face a number of challenges and limitations that have to be considered in supply risk management. The goal of the study was to discuss the operating environment, and identify and analyze supply risks and potential risk management practices. The study was concluded with suggestions for purchasing strategy development that take risk management considerations into account. This copy is the public version of the thesis.

Business opportunities in power sector of Ukraine : focus small-scale hydro and wind power sectors

In the last few years, the Ukrainian investment market has constantly shown strong performance and significant growth. This is primarily due to the investment attractiveness of Ukraine. From the perspective of investments in energy sector, Ukraine can be described as a country providing significant number of opportunities to multiply invested funds. But there are numbers of risks which hamper large investments. The work objective was to discover opportunities in small-scale hydropower and wind power sectors of Ukraine and more importantly to prove economic expediency of such investments. Thesis covers major of issues, concerning entering the Ukrainian power market as a foreign investor. It provides basic information about the structure of power market, the state of renewables sector in Ukraine, development of power sector in the regions, functioning of Wholesale Electricity Market, formation of electricity prices, possibilities for implementing joint Implementation mechanism, while the most attention, nevertheless, is concentrated on the opportunities in small-scale hydro and wind power sectors. Theoretical part of the study disclosed that Crimea peninsula has perfect wind conditions and could be a prospective area for wind project development. Investment analysis revealed that project profits will be excellent if green tariff for renewable energy is adopted. By the moment uncertainties about green law adoption bring additional risk to the projects and complicate any investment decision.

Solution Business Model for Energy Efficiency

This study examined solution business models and how they could be applied into energy efficiency business. The target of this study was to find out, what a functional solution business model applied to energy efficiency improvement projects is like. The term “functionality” was used to refer not only to the economic viability but to environmental and legal aspects and also to the implement of Critical Success Factors (CSFs) and the ability to overcome the most important market barriers and risks. This thesis is based on a comprehensive literature study on solution business, business models and energy efficiency business. This literature review was used as a foundation to an energy efficiency solution business model scheme. The created scheme was tested in a case study which studied two different energy efficiency improvement projects, illustrated the functionality of the created business model and evaluated their potential as customer targets. Solution approach was found to be suitable for energy efficiency business. The most important characteristics of a good solution business model were identified to be the relationship between the supplier and customer, a proper network, knowledge on the customer’s process and supreme technological expertise. Thus the energy efficiency solution business was recognized to be particularly suitable for example for energy suppliers or technological equipment suppliers. Because the case study was not executed from a certain company’s point of view, the most important factors such as relationships and the availability of funding could not be evaluated. Although the energy efficiency business is recognized to be economically viable, the most important factors influencing the profitability and the success of energy efficiency solution business model were identified to be the proper risk management, the ability to overcome market barriers and the realization of CSFs.

Hazard Risk Management in Large Nordic Companies' Operations in Russia

The objective of this research was to describe how Nordic companies manage hazard risks in their operations in Russia and how the local business environment is considered to affect the hazard risks. Research methods used in this research were literature review and expert interviews. Twelve Nordic industrial companies operating in different fields of industry were interviewed. Large Nordic companies typically guide risk management centralized from the parent company on behalf of the whole company group and the risk management standards and policies are integrated in all subsidiaries. Parent companies typically control hazard risk management in Russia by regular risk management reporting, auditing the Russian sites and by training local managers and employees to risk management work. Many companies have experienced several losses in the first years of operating in Russia before the risk management policies have been implemented in Russian subsidiaries. The companies have learned to take local characteristics better into account by experience and most companies are quite satisfied with their current risk management standards in Russia. The interviews indicate that companies experience especially the poor quality of infrastructure, some features in Russian organizational culture and high level of criminality to increase hazard risks in Russia. However, understanding these features and risks in the business environment makes the management of these risks possible. Risks related to infrastructure can be managed in advance by decreasing dependencies of infrastructure and considering the infrastructure quality already when planning the business operations. Also good local network is often considered critical in order to overcome the complications related to infrastructure. Russian personnel has typically different attitude towards risk management than Nordic personnel and neglecting safety and maintenance and concealing losses is more typical in Russia. By training and guiding the local personnel risk management and safety work and desired ways of actions these risks can be decreased. Criminality risks are often managed to certain extent by investing in security, increasing supervising and paying attention to reliability of the employees and other interest groups of the company.

The Dark Side of International Business? Stakeholder Approach to Human Trafficking in Finnish Construction and Service Sectors

Human trafficking is not a new phenomenon. It has existed in various forms for ages around the world. Some researchers have even compared it to slavery, calling it the modern form of slavery in the 21st century. This study is particularly interested in the role of work-related human trafficking in Finnish business. In order for something to be called work-related human trafficking, the concepts of forced labour and human trafficking have to overlap. From the economic point of view, human trafficking is governed by the laws of supply and demand. In many countries the global pressure on cutting costs has created two trends: the increased supply of migrant workers and the deregulation of labour markets. These competitive pressures can have an adverse impact on the conditions of employment and, in the worst cases, can lead to forced labour and trafficking. In fact, trafficking has become one of the most profitable illicit industries worldwide, generating tremendous profits due to its low costs and huge profits. Therefore, it is important to investigate the phenomenon from the business point of view. This study is a qualitative research conducted by using theme interviews as a research approach. Altogether 13 interviews have been conducted and some secondary data has been used in order to find out what the role of human trafficking is in Finnish business. The special sectors investigated are the Finnish construction and service sectors. The theory framework used in this study follows the stakeholder approach. The relevant stakeholder groups for this study are: ‘institutions and authorities’, ‘law enforcement’, ‘management’ and ‘employees – potential victims’ of trafficking. With the help of these stakeholder groups, a holistic picture of the phenomenon is formed. It can be concluded that the role of human trafficking is complicated but it does exist in Finnish business. It appears in low-cost business sectors where the demand for cheap labour is high. Thus, often the victims are foreigners who do not know the culture or the Finnish conditions of employment. Especially smaller Finnish companies are at risk of getting involved in human trafficking or related exploitation cases since monitoring is much more scarce in these firms than in larger companies. The risk of human trafficking and exploitation is also higher at the bottom of the complicated subcontracting chains or when using foreign recruitment agencies. Thus, the study believes that active and intensive collaboration between the company’s different stakeholder groups is needed in order to prevent work-related human trafficking from flourishing in Finland.

Supply network risks and costs in Finnish project business

This report summarizes the results of the survey HAVERI – Supply network risks in business. The survey was conducted in Finland during the spring and summer of year 2013. The survey is part of a large two-year research project started in June 2012 in Finland (on-going 06/2012–07/2014). The project is launched and financed by TEKES, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation, and executed together with the researchers from Lappeenranta University of Technology and Tampere University of Technology. The overall goal of this on-going research project is to find out the decision-making practices in the project-oriented companies in their purchasing decisions especially in the mechanical engineering and construction industries in Finland. The objective of the survey was to gain cross-sectional data concerning the challenges, risks and cost factors in Finnish project business companies. The results show that Finnish companies rely on their experience and supplier references in their risk management. In general, the understanding of the total cost structure varies among the industries and companies. The main cost factor in risk management was costs before the actual purchase decision. Overall, it seems that the monetary value of the whole project and capability of purchasing personnel are the main influencing factors on risk management activity in project purchasing.

Creating risk measurement model to project portfolio management in construction company

This thesis was carried out as a case study of a company YIT in order to clarify the sev-erest risks for the company and to build a method for project portfolio evaluation. The target organization creates new living environment by constructing residential buildings, business premises, infrastructure and entire areas worth for EUR 1.9 billion in the year 2013. Company has noted project portfolio management needs more information about the structure of project portfolio and possible influences of market shock situation. With interviews have been evaluated risks with biggest influence and most appropriate metrics to examine. The major risks for the company were evaluated by interviewing the executive staff. At the same time, the most appropriate risk metrics were considered. At the moment sales risk was estimated to have biggest impact on company‟s business. Therefore project port-folio evaluation model was created and three different scenarios for company‟s future were created in order to identify the scale of possible market shock situation. The created model is tested with public and descriptive figures of YIT in a one-year-long market shock and the impact on different metrics was evaluated. Study was conducted using con-structive research methodology. Results indicate that company has notable sales risk in certain sections of business portfolio.

Linking supplier delivery risk to outbound delivery service performance improvement

Customer satisfaction should be the main focus for all of the parts of the business. Usually supply chain behind the business is in a key role when this focus is pursued especially in repair service business. When focusing on the materials that are needed to make repairs to equipment under service contracts, the time aspect of quality is critical. Do late deliveries from supplier have an effect on the service performance of repairs when distribution center of a centralized purchasing unit is acting as a buffer between suppliers and repair service business? And if so, how should the improvement efforts be prioritized? These are the two main questions that this thesis focuses on. Correlation and linear regression was tested between service levels of supplier and distribution center. Percentage of on-time deliveries were compared to outbound delivery service level. It was found that there is statistically significant correlation between inbound and outbound operations success. The other main question of the thesis, improvement prioritization, was answered by creating material availability based supplier classification and additional to that, by developing the decision process for the analysis of most critical suppliers. This was built on a basis of previous supplier and material classification methods.

Business-Oriented IT Tool Development For Service Delivery Process

The target of this thesis is to evaluate a bid, project and resource management IT tool for service delivery process via proof-of-concept (POC) project to assess, if the tested software is an appropriate tool for the Case Company’s business requirements. Literature suggests that IT projects implementation is still a grey area in scientific research. Also, IT projects have a notably high rate of failure, one significant reason for this being insufficient planning. To tackle this risk, the Case Company decided to perform a POC project, which involved a hands-on testing period of the assessed system. End users from the business side feel that current, highly tailored project management tool is inflexible, difficult to use, and sets unnecessary limitations for the business. Semi-structured interviews and a survey form are used to collect information about current business practices and business requirements related to the IT tool. For the POC project, a project group involving members from each of the Case Company’s four business divisions was established to perform the hands-on testing. Based on data acquired during the interviews and the hands-on testing period, a target state was defined and a gap analysis was carried out by comparing the features provided by the current tool and the tested tool to the target state, which are, together with the current state description, the most important result of the thesis.