Stochasticity in economic losses increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.

Recent theory predicts harsh and stochastic conditions to generally promote the evolution of cooperation. Here, we test experimentally whether stochasticity in economic losses also affects the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity, a type of cooperation that is very typical for humans. We used a repeated helping game with observers. One subject (the "Unlucky") lost some money, another one (the "Passer-by") could reduce this loss by accepting a cost to herself, thereby building up a reputation that could be used by others in later interactions. The losses were either stable or stochastic, but the average loss over time and the average efficiency gains of helping were kept constant in both treatments. We found that players with a reputation of being generous were generally more likely to receive help by others, such that investing into a good reputation generated long-term benefits that compensated for the immediate costs of helping. Helping frequencies were similar in both treatments, but players with a reputation to be selfish lost more resources under stochastic conditions. Hence, returns on investment were steeper when losses varied than when they did not. We conclude that this type of stochasticity increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.

Keskisuuren teknologiayrityksen logistiikkaratkaisujen arviointi

Asiakkaat ovat nykyisin yhä tietoisempia tuotteen tuomasta arvosta. Uusiksi kilpailutekijöiksi ovat hinnan sijasta muodostumassa asiakaslähtöisyys, toiminnan laadukkuus ja yrityksen kyky synkronoida liiketoimintaprosesseja yhteistyössä asiakkaiden kanssa. Toimitusketjun hallinta on avainasemassa, kun pyritään saavuttamaan kilpailuetua uudessa kilpailutilanteessa. Yrityksien haasteeksi muodostuu koko arvoketjun kattavan strategisen yhteensopivuuden saavuttaminen sekä tasapainon löytäminen reagoivuuden ja tehokkuuden välille. Diplomityö käsittelee kohdeyrityksen nykyistä toimitusketjua ja kartoittaa kuinka eri logistiikkaratkaisut vaikuttaisivat yrityksen toimitusketjun materiaalivirtoihin ja kustannusrakenteeseen sekä kilpailukykyyn tulevaisuudessa. Työssä pyritään arvioimaan myös eri ratkaisujen vahvuuksia ja heikkouksia sekä käyttöönottoon liittyviä haasteita. Muutoksia on pyritty arvioimaan luomalla nykytilakuvauksen pohjalta simulointimalleja, joiden avulla voidaan mallintaa sekä materiaalivirtojen että kustannuksien muutoksia. Empiriaosassa on kuvattu eri logistiikkaratkaisujen vaikutukset materiaalivirtoihin ja logistiikkatoimintojen kokonaiskustannuksiin, sekä niiden edut ja haitat. Tämä mandollistaa eri logistiikkaratkaisujen arvioinnin ja tuo esille kuinka nykyistä toimitusketjua olisi kehitettävä, jotta kohdeyritys pystyy tulevaisuudessa parantamaan kilpailukykyään kustannustehokkaasti.

Service Concept Development - An Appoach for Professional Service Firm

Specific demand for service concept creation has come about from industrial organizations’ desire to find new and innovative ways to differentiate their offering by increasing the level of customer services. Providers of professional services have also demanded new concepts and approaches for their businesses as these industries have become increasingly competitive. Firms are now seeking better ways to understand and segment their customers, to ensure the delivery of quality services and strengthen their position in aggressively competitive markets. This thesis is intended to provide management consulting companies with a new work method that enables service concept creation in a business-to-business environment. The model defines the service concept as a combination of delivered value and the target customers; the third-dimension operating model is brought to the new system in testing of the service concept creation guidelines in the target organization. For testing, service concepts for a management consulting company are created. Service concepts are designed to serve as a solid foundation for further service improvements. Recommendations and proposals for further action related to service development in the target organization are presented, and recommendations to further improve the model created are given.

Toimintolaskentamallin luominen kiinteistönhuoltoon

Toimintolaskennasta on tehty runsaasti tutkimuksia suuriin teollisuusyrityksiin, mutta pienille palveluyrityksille tehtyjä toimintolaskennan julkaistuja tutkimuksia on vähän. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia toimintolaskennan soveltuvuutta pienen kiinteistönhuoltoyrityksen kustannuslaskentaan sekä rakentaa alustava toimintolaskentaan pohjautuva asiakas-kustannusten laskentamalli ja testata luotua mallia työaikaseurannan avulla. Tutkimuksen teoriaosassa on perehdytty toimintolaskennan kehitysvaiheisiin ja nykytilaan sekä kuvattu toimintolaskentaprosessin eteneminen käyttöönoton valmistelusta aina laskentatietojen hyväksikäyttöön saakka. Tutkimuksen empiriaosuus etenee edellä mainittuun teoriaan pohjautuen. Teoria- ja empiriaosuuden perusteella voidaan todeta, että kuukausi ei ole riittävän pitkä aika kattavaan seurantaan kiinteistönhuollon toiminnoista, koska vuodenaikojen vaihtelu aiheuttaa suuria muutoksia tehtäviin toimintoihin. Rakennetun laskentamallin ja toteutetun seurannan tulosten perusteella voidaan siitä huolimatta todeta, että toimintolaskentaan pohjautuva kustannusten laskentamalli tuottaa lisäarvoa kiinteistönhuollon asiakaskustannusten määrittelyssä.

Varastonohjauksen menetelmät ja niiden käyttö osana yrityksen kannattavuuden hallintaa

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tuottaa kohdeyrityksessä tietoa, joka auttaa tunnistamaan ja soveltamaan kannattavuuden parantamiseen vaikuttavia varastonohjauksen menetelmiä ja tukee varastonohjausta koskevaa päätöksentekoa. Varastonohjauksella tarkoitetaan varastoihin sitoutuneen pääoman hallintaa ja materiaalivirtojen ohjausta. Varastonohjauksen ensisijainen tavoite on saavuttaa optimaalinen tasapaino halutun asiakaspalvelutason ja varastonpidosta aiheutuvien kustannusten välillä. Tutkielma toteutettiin tapaustutkimuksena. Aineistona käytettiin kohdeyrityksen sisäisiä tietoja. Varastonohjausperiaatteiden kohdentamiseksi varastonimikkeet luokiteltiin ABC-analyysin avulla, jota täydennettiin kriittisyysanalyysillä. Ohjausmenetelmät määriteltiin luokittain. Varastoilla on merkittävä rooli yrityksen toiminnassa. Niihin sitoutuu pääomaa, joka vaikuttaa yrityksen kannattavuuteen. Nimikkeiden luokittelu ja luokkakohtaisten ohjausmenetelmien ja -periaatteiden määrittely on erittäin tärkeää. Varastotasojen alentamisella ja varaston kiertonopeuden nostamisella on kannattavuutta parantava vaikutus.

Creating customer relationship management concept for engineering and service business

Customer relationship management has been one essential part of marketing for over 20 years. Today’s business environment is fast changing, international and highly competitive, and that is why the most important factor for long-term profitability is one-to-one customer relationships. However, managing relationships and serving customers that are profitable has been always challenging. In this thesis the objective was to define the main obstacles that the case company must overcome to succeed in CRM. Possible solutions have also been defined. The main elements of the implementation i.e. people, processes and technologies, can clearly be found behind these matters and solutions. This thesis also presents theoretical information about CRM and it is meant to act as a guide book inside the organisation to spread information about CRM for those who are not so familiar with the topic.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of antibodies against chimeric fibrin/filaggrin citrullinated synthetic peptides in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction: Evidence suggests that citrullinated fibrin(ogen) may be a potential in vivo target of anticitrullinated protein/peptide antibodies (ACPA) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We compared the diagnostic yield of three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests by using chimeric fibrin/filaggrin citrullinated synthetic peptides (CFFCP1, CFFCP2, CFFCP3) with a commercial CCP2-based test in RA and analyzed their prognostic values in early RA. Methods: Samples from 307 blood donors and patients with RA (322), psoriatic arthritis (133), systemic lupus erythematosus (119), and hepatitis C infection (84) were assayed by using CFFCP- and CCP2-based tests. Autoantibodies also were analyzed at baseline and during a 2-year follow-up in 98 early RA patients to determine their prognostic value. Results: With cutoffs giving 98% specificity for RA versus blood donors, the sensitivity was 72.1% for CFFCP1, 78.0% for CFFCP2, 71.4% for CFFCP3, and 73.9% for CCP2, with positive predictive values greater than 97% in all cases. CFFCP sensitivity in RA increased to 80.4% without losing specificity when positivity was considered as any positive anti-CFFCP status. Specificity of the three CFFCP tests versus other rheumatic populations was high (> 90%) and similar to those for the CCP2. In early RA, CFFCP1 best identified patients with a poor radiographic outcome. Radiographic progression was faster in the small subgroup of CCP2-negative and CFFCP1-positive patients than in those negative for both autoantibodies. CFFCP antibodies decreased after 1 year, but without any correlation with changes in disease activity. Conclusions: CFFCP-based assays are highly sensitive and specific for RA. Early RA patients with anti-CFFCP1 antibodies, including CCP2-negative patients, show greater radiographic progression.

Customer-Related Internal Communication in a Global Matrix Organization

The objective of the thesis was to explore the nature and characteristics of customer-related internal communication in a global industrial matrix organization during a specific customer relationship, and how it could be improved. The theoretical part of the study views the field of the concepts of intra-organizational information and knowledge sharing. The theoretical part also views the internal communications influences to customer relationships, its problematic, and the suggestions to improve internal communication in literature. The empirical part of the study was conducted with the Content Analysis and the Social Network Analysis as research methods. The data was collected by interviews and a questionnaire. Internal communication was observed first generally within the organization from the point of view of a certain business, and secondly, during a specific customer relationship at personal level and at departmental level. The results of the study describe the nature and characteristics of internal communication in the organization. The results give 13 suggestions for improving internal communication in the organization. Although the study has been done in one specific organization, it also offers insights for other organizations as well as managers to improve their internal communication.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Comparison of the prognostic value of pretreatment measurements of systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing curative resection of clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Pretreatment measurements of systemic inflammatory response, including the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) have been recognized as prognostic factors in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (CCRCC), but there is at present no study that compared these markers. METHODS: We evaluated the pretreatment GPS, NLR, MLR, PLR and PNI in 430 patients, who underwent surgery for clinically localized CCRCC (pT1-3N0M0). Associations with disease-free survival were assessed with Cox models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index, and a decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. RESULTS: On multivariable analyses, all measures of systemic inflammatory response were significant prognostic factors. The increase in discrimination compared with the stage, size, grade and necrosis (SSIGN) score alone was 5.8 % for the GPS, 1.1-1.4 % for the NLR, 2.9-3.4 % for the MLR, 2.0-3.3 % for the PLR and 1.4-3.0 % for the PNI. On the simultaneous multivariable analysis of all candidate measures, the final multivariable model contained the SSIGN score (HR 1.40, P < 0.001), the GPS (HR 2.32, P < 0.001) and the MLR (HR 5.78, P = 0.003) as significant variables. Adding both the GPS and the MLR increased the discrimination of the SSIGN score by 6.2 % and improved the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with clinically localized CCRCC, the GPS and the MLR appear to be the most relevant prognostic measures of systemic inflammatory response. They may be used as an adjunct for patient counseling, tailoring management and clinical trial design.

The pedagogical value of games and songs : The perceptions of teachers

Aquest estudi intenta explorar i descobrir les actituds i creences d’alguns mestres de llengua anglesa de Catalunya sobre la naturalesa dels jocs i les cançons, així com el paper que juguen en les seves aules per ensenyar l’anglès als infants. Les opinions dels mestres de llengua anglesa van ser recollides mitjançant un qüestionari que contenia preguntes sobre els jocs i les cançons i els resultats s’analitzen i s’exposen en aquest estudi.

The risk factors for fractures and trabecular bone-score value in patients with endogenous Cushing's syndrome.

In a cohort study of 182 consecutive patients with active endogenous Cushing's syndrome, the only predictor of fracture occurrence after adjustment for age, gender bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS) was 24-h urinary free cortisol (24hUFC) levels with a threshold of 1472 nmol/24 h (odds ratio, 3.00 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.52-5.92); p = 0.002). INTRODUCTION: The aim was to estimate the risk factors for fracture in subjects with endogenous Cushing's syndrome (CS) and to evaluate the value of the TBS in these patients. METHODS: All enrolled patients with CS (n = 182) were interviewed in relation to low-traumatic fractures and underwent lateral X-ray imaging from T4 to L5. BMD measurements were performed using a DXA Prodigy device (GEHC Lunar, Madison, Wisconsin, USA). The TBS was derived retrospectively from existing BMD scans, blinded to clinical outcome, using TBS iNsight software v2.1 (Medimaps, Merignac, France). Urinary free cortisol (24hUFC) was measured by immunochemiluminescence assay (reference range, 60-413 nmol/24 h). RESULTS: Among enrolled patients with CS (149 females; 33 males; mean age, 37.8 years (95 % confidence interval, 34.2-39.1); 24hUFC, 2370 nmol/24 h (2087-2632), fractures were confirmed in 81 (44.5 %) patients, with 70 suffering from vertebral fractures, which were multiple in 53 cases; 24 patients reported non-vertebral fractures. The mean spine TBS was 1.207 (1.187-1.228), and TBS Z-score was -1.86 (-2.07 to -1.65); area under the curve (AUC) was used to predict fracture (mean spine TBS) = 0.548 (95 % CI, 0.454-0.641)). In the final regression model, the only predictor of fracture occurrence was 24hUFC levels (p = 0.001), with an increase of 1.041 (95 % CI, 1.019-1.063), calculated for every 100 nmol/24-h cortisol elevation (AUC (24hUFC) = 0.705 (95 % CI, 0.629-0.782)). CONCLUSIONS: Young patients with CS have a low TBS. However, the only predictor of low traumatic fracture is the severity of the disease itself, indicated by high 24hUFC levels.

Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

Prognostic value of PCSK9 levels in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

AIMS: Proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin 9 (PCSK9) is an emerging target for the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia, but the clinical utility of PCSK9 levels to guide treatment is unknown. We aimed to prospectively assess the prognostic value of plasma PCSK9 levels in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma PCSK9 levels were measured in 2030 ACS patients undergoing coronary angiography in a Swiss prospective cohort. At 1 year, the association between PCSK9 tertiles and all-cause death was assessed adjusting for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) variables, as well as the achievement of LDL cholesterol targets of <1.8 mmol/L. Patients with higher PCSK9 levels at angiography were more likely to have clinical familial hypercholesterolaemia (rate ratio, RR 1.21, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.09-1.53), be treated with lipid-lowering therapy (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.63), present with longer time interval of chest pain (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.09-1.53) and higher C-reactive protein levels (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16-1.30). PCSK9 increased 12-24 h after ACS (374 ± 149 vs. 323 ± 134 ng/mL, P < 0.001). At 1 year follow-up, HRs for upper vs. lower PCSK9-level tertiles were 1.13 (95% CI 0.69-1.85) for all-cause death and remained similar after adjustment for the GRACE score. Patients with higher PCSK9 levels were less likely to reach the recommended LDL cholesterol targets (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-0.99). CONCLUSION: In ACS patients, high initial PCSK9 plasma levels were associated with inflammation in the acute phase and hypercholesterolaemia, but did not predict mortality at 1 year.