991 resultados para financial forecasting


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For number of reasons social responsibility in corporations has become a more essential part of business operations than before. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is dealt with different means and aspects but the overall effects it has on organisations performance, communication and underline actions is indisputable. The thesis describes corporate social responsibility and the main objective was to observe how corporate social responsibility has developed in our case company with answering to main research question how CSR reporting has evolved in UPM-Kymmene Oyj? In addition following questions were also addressed: Is there a monetary value of CSR? What does proficient CSR report consist of? What does corporate social responsibility consist of? Qualitative research method, content analysis to be precise, was chosen and excessive literature study performed to find the theoretical back ground to perform the empirical part of the study. Data for the empirical part was collected from UPM-Kymmene Oyj financial data and annual reports. The study shows that UPM-Kymmene Oyj engagement to CSR and reporting of CSR matter have improved due time but still few managerial implications could be found. UPM-Kymmene Oyj economic key figures are only building shareholder value and stakeholders are identified in very general level. Also CSR data is scattered all over the annual report which causes problems to readers. The scientific importance of this thesis arises from the profound way CSR has been addressed in a holistic manner. Thus it is giving a good basis to understand the underlying reasons of CSR from society towards the organisation and vice versa.

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The definition of corporate social responsibility (CSR) has been developed since 1950s but even today there is no consensus what CSR includes. The main purpose of this thesis was to find out whether financial performance is better among first adopters of CSR standards in forest industry. To support the main purpose it was critical also investigate what kind of companies adopt CSR standards. The empirical part of the thesis based on a survey which was done in 2010 to forest industry companies and financial data that was gathered from different databases from years 2003-2010. According to the research results it seems the early CSR standards adopters benefits the position of the first adopter many times. Especially cash position and solvency of early adopter companies were better than later adopters or those who did not adopt CSR standards at all. Profitability seemed to be better among CSR standards adopters but early adopters did not have significantly better position compared to later adopters. CSR standards adopters were companies that considered themselves as environmental performance pioneers and had employee oriented management.

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Earnings management (EM) literature examines managers’ use of judgment in financial reporting and in structuring transactions to alter financial reports for a specific reason. Mainstream EM literature strongly concentrates on statistical research methodologies and it is driven by positive accounting theory. Although EM occurs in the process of preparing corporate financial reports, that process has so far largely remained a “black box” in prior literature. The purpose of this study is to analyze what EM is, how and why it unfolds and how it is intertwined in the process of preparing corporate financial reports. In order to meet the needs of the study, a qualitative case study method will be used. The contribution of this study is threefold. First, it indicates that the concept of EM is not as unam-biguous as the prior literature has assumed. I find that EM is socially constructed and more open to interpretation than absolutely dichotomous conception given by previous studies. Second, this study contributes to our knowledge of the role and the importance of actors involved in conducting EM, indicating that EM is much more actor-dependent than the prior literature has assumed. Third, this study broadens our knowledge base with regard to the processes and potential for EM in academic research.

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In the Innovation Union Scoreboard of 2011, Latvia ranked last amongst the EU countries in innovation performance. Even though there is sufficient scientific and technological basis, the results remain modest or low in most of the indicators concerning innovations. Several aspects influence the performance a national innovation system. In Latvia, the low effectiveness is often attributed to lack of financial support tools. As a comparison, Finland was chosen because of its well-established and documented innovation system. The aim of this study is to research the efficiency and effectiveness of the current financial innovation support tool system in Latvia from the point of view of an innovating company. It also attempts to analyze the support tool system of Latvia and compare to the relevant parts of the Finnish system. The study found that it is problematic for innovative companies in Latvia to receive the necessary funding especially for start-ups and SMEs due to the low number of grant programs, funds and lacking offer from banks, venture capital and business angels. To improve the situation, the Latvian government should restructure the funding mechanisms putting a bigger emphasis on innovative start-ups and SMEs. That would lay a foundation for future growth and boost research and scientific activities in Latvia.

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This research is focused on deriving framework for the value thought for from the Customer Relationship Management system adopted by an enterprise operating in the financial services industry. It will analyze existing academic work to derive a conceptual value model, while applying secondary industry specific case studies provided by the CRM vendors to check the validity and commonality of these drivers. Furthermore this work locates the variances and correlation between value thought for from CRM system, scope of enterprise operations and size of the enterprise.

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Diplomityö tehtiin kunnallisessa omistuksessa olevaan kiinteistö- ja palveluyhtiöön. Työn tavoitteena oli suunnitella ja luoda uusi budjetointimalli, jota kohdeyritys pystyy hyödyntämään talousjohtamisessa. Mallin keskeisiä ominaisuuksia on tulevan tilikauden toiminnan rahamääräinen ennustaminen, jonka avulla yritys pystyy hinnoittelemaan kiinteistöjen ylläpitovastikkeet ja palvelukokonaisuudet. Työn teoriaosuudessa esitellään budjetoinnin keskeiset tehtävät sekä budjetointi-järjestelmän sisältö; budjetin rakenne, budjetointiprosessin vaiheet, erilaiset menetelmät ja sovellukset sekä sen kehittämiseen liittyvät edellytykset. Työssä on esitetty perinteiseen budjetointiin kohdistunutta kritiikkiä, joiden huomioiminen on tärkeää toimivan budjetointimallin luomisessa. Empiirisessä osiossa kuvataan mallin kehittämisen vaiheita, budjetointiprosessia sekä siihen luotuja ominaisuuksia. Mallin ominaisuuksiin kuuluvat budjetointilomakkeet, niiden väliset yhteydet sekä kuluvan tilikauden ennustaminen, joka perustuu toteumaan sekä budjetoituihin tietoihin. Budjetin seuranta on järjestetty yrityksen taloudenhallintajärjestelmässä. Luodun budjetointimallin avulla yritys pystyy paremmin suunnittelemaan ja ennustamaan tulevan tilikauden toimintansa. Mallin kehittäminen jo prosessina paransi kohdeyrityksen talousjohtamista. Kustannukset saatiin paremmin esille, jolloin tärkeimpiin eriin ja ongelmiin voidaan puuttua. Mallista saatavan ennusteen avulla yritys pystyy tekemään tarvittavia toimenpiteitä tilikauden aikana. Tulevaisuudessa budjetointimallia tulisi kehittää tukemaan paremmin strategista johtamista sekä huomioimaan paremmin suorituskyvyn seuraamisen näkökulma.

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In this literature review the theorethical framework of Financial transaction taxes and their assumed effect on market volatility is assessed. The empirical evidence from various studies is compared against the theory and a simple empirical review of the Finnish stock market is conducted. The findings implicate that financial transaction taxes can not reduce volatility and their actual effect on markets is dependend by many other factors as well. Some evidence even suggests that transactions taxes may actually raise volatility.

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Despite the fact that the literature on mergers and acquisitions is extensive, relatively little effort has been made to examine the relationship between the acquiring firms’ financial slack and short-term post-takeover announcement abnormal stock returns. In this study, the case is made that the financial slack of a firm is not only an outcome of past business and financing activities but it also may affect the quality of acquisition decisions. We will hypothesize that the level of financial slack in a firm is negatively associated with the abnormal returns following acquisition announcements because slack reduces managerial discipline over the use of corporate funds and also because it may give rise to managerial self-serving behavior. In this study, financial slack is measured in terms of three financial statements ratios: leverage ratio, cash and equivalents to total assets ratio and free cash flow to total assets ratio. The data used in this paper is collected from two main sources. A list comprising 90 European acquisition announcements is retrieved from Thomson One Banker database. The stock price data and financial statements information for the respective firms is collected using Datastream. Our empirical analysis is two-fold. First, we conduct a two-sample t-test where we find that the most slack-rich firms experience lower abnormal returns than the most slack-poor firms in the event window [-1, +1], significant at 5% risk level. Second, we perform a cross sectional regression for sample firms using three financial statements ratios to explain cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). We find that leverage shows a statistically significant positive relationship with cumulative abnormal returns in event window [-1; +1] (significance 5%). Moreover, cash to total assets ratio showed a weak negative relationship with CAR (significant at 10%) in event window [-1; +1]. We conclude that our hypothesis for the inverse relationship between slack and abnormal returns receives empirical support. Based on the results of the event study we get empirical support for the hypothesis that the capital markets expect the acquisitions undertaken by slack-rich firms to more likely be driven by managerial self-serving behavior and hubris than do those undertaken by slackpoor firms, signaling possible agency problems and behavioral biases.

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This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

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The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.

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The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general forecasting process design, forecasting methods and techniques, the role of human judgment in forecasting and forecasting performance measurement. The purpose of the literature review was to identify the important design choices that an organization aiming to design or re-design their demand forecasting process would have to make. In the empirical part of the study, these choices and the existing knowledge behind them was assessed in a case study where a demand forecasting process was re-designed for a company in the fast moving consumer goods business. The new target process is described, as well as the reasoning behind the design choices made during the re-design process. As a result, the most important design choices are highlighted, as well as their immediate effect on other processes directly tied to the demand forecasting process. Additionally, some new insights on the organizational aspects of demand forecasting processes are explored. The preliminary results indicate that in this case the new process did improve forecasting accuracy, although organizational issues related to the process proved to be more challenging than anticipated.

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Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

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The global concern about sustainability has been growing and the mining industry is questioned about its environmental and social performance. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is an important issue for the extractive industries. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between CSR performance and financial performance of selected mining companies. The study was conducted by identifying and comparing a selection of available CSR performance indicators with financial performance indicators. Based on the result of the study, the relationship between CSR performance and financial performance is unclear for the selected group of companies. The result is mixed and no industry specific realistic way to measure CSR performance uniformly is available. The result as a whole is contradictory and varies at company level as well as based on the selected indicators. The result of this study confirms that the relationship between CSR performance and financial performance is complicated and difficult to determine. As an outcome, evaluation of benefits of CSR in the mining sector could better be analyzed based on different attributes.