Estimating extreme value cumulative distribution functions using bias-corrected kernel approaches

We propose a new kernel estimation of the cumulative distribution function based on transformation and on bias reducing techniques. We derive the optimal bandwidth that minimises the asymptotic integrated mean squared error. The simulation results show that our proposed kernel estimation improves alternative approaches when the variable has an extreme value distribution with heavy tail and the sample size is small.

Estimating the value of the metal-ligand bond dissociation enthalpy<D> (M-L) for adducts using empirical equations supported by TG data

In this work is presented and tested (for 106 adducts, mainly of the zinc group halides) two empirical equations supported in TG data to estimate the value of the metal-ligand bond dissociation enthalpy for adducts: <D> (M-O) = t i / g if t i < 420 K and <D> (M-O) = (t i / g ) - 7,75 . 10-2 . t i if t i > 420 K. In this empirical equations, t i is the thermodynamic temperature of the beginning of the thermal decomposition of the adduct, as determined by thermogravimetry, andg is a constant factor that is function of the metal halide considered and of the number of ligands, but is not dependant of the ligand itself. To half of the tested adducts the difference between experimental and calculated values was less than 5%. To about 80% of the tested adducts, the difference between the experimental (calorimetric) and the calculated (using the proposed equations) values are less than 15%.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Comovement of stock price risk in strategic alliance — Case: mobile internet

The focus of this study has been comovement of stock price risk level between two companies as they form strategic alliance. Thus the main reason has been to shed more light to possible increased risk level that the stockholder confronts when a company he owns forms a strategic alliance with another company. This study has centralized to interfirm cooperation between mobile and internet companies, which have furthered the development of mobile internet. The study has been divided into theoretical and empirical part. In theoretical part the main concepts riskiness of a stock (volatility), comovement and strategic alliance have been run through. In empirical part seven strategic alliances formed by mobile internet companies have been examined. Based on this, strategic alliance seems to increase comovement of stock price risk in some degree. This comovement seems to be stronger when core businesses or operating environments of cooperating companies differ more from each other.

Yllätys yritysjohdon ennusteissa: Vaikutus osakekurssiin

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää Suomen osakemarkkinoiden hinnoittamistehokkuutta johdon ennustepoikkeamien tapauksessa. Tarkastelu-ajanjakso on 1.1.2000–31.12.2006. Kiinnostuneita oltiin erityisesti keski-pitkän ja pitkän aikavälin (10 kaupankäyntivuorokautta ja 40 kaupankäyntivuorokautta) epänormaaleista tuotoista. Työn empiriaosuus suoritettiin tapahtumatutkimusmenetelmää hyväksikäyttäen. Empiriaosuudessa laskettiin ennustepoikkeaman aiheuttamat epänormaalit tuotot pienimmän neliösumman regressiota hyväksikäyttäen. Positiivisten poikkeamien aiheuttamat epänormaalit tuotot eivät poikenneet tilastollisesti markkinatuotoista millään tarkasteluvälillä. Negatiivisten epänormaalien tuottojen poikkeamaa havaittiin 10 kaupankäyntivuorokautta ennustepoikkeaman julkaisun jälkeen. Toimialakohtaisessa tarkastelussa parillisten otosten t-testissä havaittiin, että terveydenhuollon, rahoituksen ja informaatioteknologian epänormaalit tuotot poikkesivat markkinatuotoista. Yrityskohtaisia tekijöitä tutkittiin yksinkertaisella t-testillä. Näistä velkaisuusasteella, beetalla, päivätuottojen keskihajonnalla, päivittäisellä liikevaihdolla sekä P/E-luvulla havaittiin voi-tavan ennustaa mahdollisten ennustepoikkeamien esiintymistiheyttä. Sen sijaan markkina-arvolla ja P/B-luvulla ei havaittu yhteyttä ennustepoikkeamien esiintymistiheyteen. Tutkittaessa käyttäytymistieteellisen rahoituksen olettamaa kaupankäyntivolyymin kasvusta ennustepoikkeamaa ympäröivänä aikana ei tilastollista merkittävyyttä löydetty.

Tests of International Asset Pricing Models in Scandinavian Stock Markets

This thesis examines whether global, local and exchange risks are priced in Scandinavian countries’ equity markets by using conditional international asset pricing models. The employed international asset pricing models are the world capital asset pricing model, the international asset pricing model augmented with the currency risk, and the partially segmented model augmented with the currency risk. Moreover, this research traces estimated equity risk premiums for the Scandinavian countries. The empirical part of the study is performed using generalized method of moments approach. Monthly observations from February 1994 to June 2007 are used. Investors’ conditional expectations are modeled using several instrumental variables. In order to keep system parsimonious the prices of risk are assumed to be constant whereas expected returns and conditional covariances vary over time. The empirical findings of this thesis suggest that the prices of global and local market risk are priced in the Scandinavian countries. This indicates that the Scandinavian countries are mildly segmented from the global markets. Furthermore, the results show that the exchange risk is priced in the Danish and Swedish stock markets when the partially segmented model is augmented with the currency risk factor.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Performance persistence of equity funds in the Russian stock market

This thesis investigates performance persistence among the equity funds investing in Russia during 2003-2007. Fund performance is measured using several methods including the Jensen alpha, the Fama-French 3- factor alpha, the Sharpe ratio and two of its variations. Moreover, we apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimation in performance measurement and evaluate its usefulness compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. The pattern of performance persistence is analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation test, cross-sectional regression analysis and stacked return time series. Empirical results indicate that the Bayesian shrinkage estimates may provide better and more accurate estimates of fund performance compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. Secondly, based on the results it seems that the degree of performance persistence is strongly related to length of the observation period. For the full sample period the results show strong signs of performance reversal whereas for the subperiod analysis the results indicate performance persistence during the most recent years.

Fair value versus historic cost-valuation for biological assets: Implications for the quality of financial information

[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.

Fair value versus historic cost-valuation for biological assets: Implications for the quality of financial information

[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.

Fair value versus historical cost-based valuation for biological assets: Predictability of financial information

There is an intense debate on the convenience of moving from historical cost (HC) toward the fair value (FV) principle. The debate and academic research is usually concerned with financial instruments, but the IAS 41 requirement of fair valuation for biological assets brings it into the agricultural domain. This paper performs an empirical study with a sample of Spanish farms valuing biological assets at HC and a sample applying FV, finding no significant differences between both valuation methods to assess future cash flows. However, most tests reveal more predictive power of future earnings under fair valuation of biological assets, which is not explained by differences in volatility of earnings and profitability. The study also evidences the existence of flawed HC accounting practices for biological assets in agriculture, which suggests scarce information content of this valuation method in the predominant small business units existing in the agricultural sector in advanced Western countries

Osakeperusteinen palkitseminen: maksuttoman osakkeen hyödyntäminen kannustinjärjestelmissä

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää osakeyhtiön palkitsemisjärjestelmiin liittyviä kysymyksiä päämies–agenttisuhteiden ja osakeyhtiöoikeudellisten periaatteiden kautta. Tutkielmassa selvitetään, kuinka maksuttomia osakkeita voidaan hyödyntää julkisen osakeyhtiön palkitsemisjärjestelmissä ja mitä haasteita ja mahdollisuuksia niiden käyttöön liittyy. Tutkimusmetodi työssä on lainopillinen ja aihetta lähestytään luontevasti kauppatieteellisen ja oikeustieteellisen näkökulman yhdistävän oikeustaloustieteen kautta. Ensisijaisena aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään voimassaolevaa lainsäädäntöä valmisteluaineistoineen ja näkökulmaa syvennetään aiemmin voimassa olleen lainsäädännön tarkastelulla. Toissijaisena aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään sekä eri asiantuntijoiden oikeudellista kirjallisuutta että palkitsemisen asiantuntijoiden laatimaa kirjallisuutta Suomesta ja muista länsimaista. Teoreettista työtä on syvennetty asiantuntijahaastattelulla ja yhtiöiden sijoittajatiedosta saatavalla informaatiolla. Merkittävin osakeyhtiön johdon ja yhtiön välisen suhteen tehokkuutta alentava seikka on päämies–agenttisuhteen valvontaongelma. Tämä liittyy päämies - agenttisuhteeseen, joka ilmenee negatiivisesti yhtiön ja yhtiön johdon intressien ristiriitatilanteissa. Valvontaongelma voi aiheuttaa ylimääräisiä transaktiokustannuksia ja tämä näkyy yhtiön toiminnan tehokkuuden laskemisena. Päämies–agenttisuhteen ratkaisuna lainsäädäntö ja erilaiset valvonnan keinot ovat tehottomia ja nykyisen yhtiöoikeudellisen ajattelun vastaisia. Tehokkaimmin valvontaongelma saadaan ratkaistua erilaisin kannustimin tapahtuvalla johdon ohjauksella. Osakesidonnainen palkitseminen on suosituin johdon ja yhtiön intressien yhdistämisen keino. Osakesidonnainen palkitseminen on parhaimmillaan eri osapuolien näkökulmasta sitouttavaa ja kannustavaa mutta osakepalkitsemisen käyttöön liittyy myös riskejä. Eräs keskeisistä yhtiöoikeudellisista periaatteista on yhdenvertaisuus, jota saatetaan loukata eri palkitsemisjärjestelmiä käytettäessä. Varojen jakoon ja järjestelmien rahoitukseen liittyy niin ikään riskejä, jotka saattavat vaarantaa järjestelmän onnistumisen. Liian avokätiset palkkiojärjestelmät taas saattavat aiheuttaa yhtiön eri sidosryhmien piirissä tyytymättömyyttä joka taas alentaa järjestelmän tehokkuutta. Yhtiön johto vastaa yhtiön strategian toteutumisesta ja linjaa Corporate Governance käytännön mukaisesti johdon palkitsemisen tavat. Yhtiön johto on kuitenkin päätöksistään vastuussa yhtiön residuaalioikeuden omaaville päämiehille, eli osakkeenomistajille. Vaikka yhtiön johto vastaa viime kädessä yhtiön toiminnasta, sen on huomioitava toiminnassaan yhtiön toiminnan tarkoitus ja sitä kautta yksittäisen osakkeenomistajan etu. Vaikka osakeyhtiössä toteutettaisiin enemmistöomistajan valitsemaa toimintalinjaa, osakeyhtiön yhdenvertaisuusperiaate korostaa juuri vähemmistöosakkeenomistajan asemaa. Johdon fidusiaaristen velvoitteiden voidaankin nähdä korostuvan johdon suhteessa vähemmistöosakkeenomistajaan. Tämä on huomioitava myös palkitsemisjärjestelmissä. Johdon palkitsemisjärjestelmien suunnittelussa ja toteutuksessa on suunnattava keskeinen huomio sen tavoitteiden toteutumiseen, eli yksittäisen osakkeenomistajan omistuksen arvon kasvattamiseen pidemmällä aikavälillä, pitäen huolta osakeyhtiön kantavista periaatteista.

Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to test the intertemporal risk-return relation for 13 European stock markets. We identify country specific, euro area, and global macro-finance factors to determine the conditional risk and return. Empirically, the risk- return trade-off is generally negative. However, a Markov switching model documents that there is time-variation in this trade-off that is linked to the state of the economy. Keywords: Risk-return trade-off; Dynamic factor model; Macro-finance predictors; European stock markets; Markov switching model JEL Classifications: C22; G11; G12; G17

Geographic patterns of genetic variation in a broadly distributed marine vertebrate: new insights into loggerhead turtle stock structure from expanded mitochondrial DNA sequences

Previous genetic studies have demonstrated that natal homing shapes the stock structure of marine turtle nesting populations. However, widespread sharing of common haplotypes based on short segments of the mitochondrial control region often limits resolution of the demographic connectivity of populations. Recent studies employing longer control region sequences to resolve haplotype sharing have focused on regional assessments of genetic structure and phylogeography. Here we synthesize available control region sequences for loggerhead turtles from the Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic, and western Indian Ocean basins. These data represent six of the nine globally significant regional management units (RMUs) for the species and include novel sequence data from Brazil, Cape Verde, South Africa and Oman. Genetic tests of differentiation among 42 rookeries represented by short sequences (380 bp haplotypes from 3,486 samples) and 40 rookeries represented by long sequences (~800 bp haplotypes from 3,434 samples) supported the distinction of the six RMUs analyzed as well as recognition of at least 18 demographically independent management units (MUs) with respect to female natal homing. A total of 59 haplotypes were resolved. These haplotypes belonged to two highly divergent global lineages, with haplogroup I represented primarily by CC-A1, CC-A4, and CC-A11 variants and haplogroup II represented by CC-A2 and derived variants. Geographic distribution patterns of haplogroup II haplotypes and the nested position of CC-A11.6 from Oman among the Atlantic haplotypes invoke recent colonization of the Indian Ocean from the Atlantic for both global lineages. The haplotypes we confirmed for western Indian Ocean RMUs allow reinterpretation of previous mixed stock analysis and further suggest that contemporary migratory connectivity between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans occurs on a broader scale than previously hypothesized. This study represents a valuable model for conducting comprehensive international cooperative data management and research in marine ecology.