External Location Factors of Finnish Direct Investment in Central and Eastern European Transitional Economies

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli selvittää suomalaisten suorien investointien maan valintaan vaikuttavia tekijöitä Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan kymmenessä siirtymätaloudessa. Empiirisessä osuudessa tarkasteltiin suomalaisten yritysten tärkeimpiä sijaintitekijöitä alueella ja yrityskohtaisten tekijöiden vaikutusta sijaintitekijöihin. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin myös yritysten päämotiiveja investoida maihin. Laaditun investointikriteeristön mukaan maat pystyttiin laittamaan paremmuusjärjestykseen suomalaisen investoijan kannalta. Empiirisen osuuden aineisto kerättiin postikyselylomakkeella yrityksiltä, joilla on tai jotka ovat suunnittelemassa investointeja näihin maihin. Tutkimusote oli kvantitatiivinen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että suomalaiset investoijat valitsevat Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan maan investointikohteeksi pääasiassa markkinapotentiaalin ja edullisten kustannusten perusteella. Myös infrastruktuuri vaikuttaa maan valintaan. Eri aloilla toimivien yritysten sijaintitekijöiden painotuksissa havaittiin eroja. Yrityksen koko ja päämotiivi vaikuttivat sijaintitekijöiden painotuksiin. Investointikriteereiden mukaan kaksi parasta investointimaata suomalaisille investoijille ovat Puola ja Viro. Vertailtaessa investointikriteereitä toteutuneisiin investointeihin voidaan todeta, että suomalaiset investoijat eivät ole hyödyntäneet investoinneilla saatavia etuja kaikissa kohdemaissa.

Local effects and global impact in neurotoxicity and neurodegeneration: The Xi"an International Neurotoxicology Conference

'Neurotoxicity and Neurodegeneration: Local Effect and Global Impact' was the theme of the Xi"an International Neurotoxicology Conference (XINC), held in Xi"an, June 2011. The Conference was a joint event of the 13th Biennial Meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association (INA-13) and the 11th International Symposium on Neurobehavioral Methods and Effects in Occupational and Environmental Health (NEUREOH-11) of the Scientific Committee on Neurotoxicology and...

Intercultural business communication between Arabs of the United Arab Emirates and Finns

Kun kauppaa käydään eri maanosien välillä, törmätään vieraisiin kulttuureihin ja erilaisiin kaupankäyntitapoihin. Tämä tutkimus keskittyy suomalaisten liikemiesten ja - naisten työhön Yhdistyneissä Arabiemiraateissa kulttuurierojen näkökulmasta. Tavoitteena on kuvata kulttuurierojen vaikutuksia kaupankäyntiprosessiin ja löytää niitä ongelmia, joita tämän prosessin aikana kohdataan. Tavoitteena on tuottaa tietoa, jonka avulla kulttuurieroista johtuvia ongelmia voidaan vähentää tulevaisuudessa. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen tausta perustuu Hofsteden kulttuurista vaihtelua kuvaaviin dimensioihin ja Ting Toomeyn kulttuurisen identiteetin neuvotteluprosessin malliin. Näihin malleihin perustuen luotiin tähän tutkimukseen oma kulttuurien välisen kohtaamisen malli. Tutkimusongelmia ovat: 1) Miten suomalaiset liikemiehet kuvailevat arabien kaupantekokulttuuria? Kuinka vastapuoli kuvailee omaa kaupantekokulttuuriaan? 2) Minkälainen on suomalaisten ja arabien välinen kaupankäyntiprosessi? 3) Minkälaisia ongelmia kohdataan tehtäessä kauppaa suomalaisten ja arabien kesken? Tutkimus on etnografinen, laadullinen haastattelututkimus (n=12). Haastattelut tehtiin suurimmaksi osaksi Yhdistyneissä Arabiemiraateissa, osin Suomessa. Erilainen kulttuuritausta näkyy kaupankäynnissä. Kollektivistinen, maskuliininen, islamilaisen uskontoon ja vain vähäisessä määrin suoraan kielelliseen koodistoon perustuva kulttuuri heijastuu kaupankäyntiprosessiin. Ystävyyden ja sukulaisten sekä muiden verkostojen merkitys korostuu. Ruumiin kieleen, ilmeisiin ja eleisiin liittyvä kommunikaatio on erilaista ja voi aiheuttaa väärinkäsityksiä. Myös aikakäsitys ja sopimuskäytäntö poikkeavat suomalaisesta. Kaikki nämä voivat aiheuttaa ongelmia kaupankäyntiprosessissa. Tärkeimmiksi tekijöiksi ongelmien kohtaamisessa nousivat ammattitaidon lisäksi kärsivällisyys ja joustavuus. Ongelmia voidaan vähentää huolellisella valmistautumisella ennen ulkomaille lähtöä. Toinen tapa on jatkuviin työkokemuksiin perustuen oppia paikallista kulttuuria ja sen piirteitä.

The development of decision limits for the GH-2000 detection methodology using additional insulin-like growth factor-I and amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen assays.

The GH-2000 and GH-2004 projects have developed a method for detecting GH misuse based on measuring insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen (P-III-NP). The objectives were to analyze more samples from elite athletes to improve the reliability of the decision limit estimates, to evaluate whether the existing decision limits needed revision, and to validate further non-radioisotopic assays for these markers. The study included 998 male and 931 female elite athletes. Blood samples were collected according to World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) guidelines at various sporting events including the 2011 International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Athletics Championships in Daegu, South Korea. IGF-I was measured by the Immunotech A15729 IGF-I IRMA, the Immunodiagnostic Systems iSYS IGF-I assay and a recently developed mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method. P-III-NP was measured by the Cisbio RIA-gnost P-III-P, Orion UniQ? PIIINP RIA and Siemens ADVIA Centaur P-III-NP assays. The GH-2000 score decision limits were developed using existing statistical techniques. Decision limits were determined using a specificity of 99.99% and an allowance for uncertainty because of the finite sample size. The revised Immunotech IGF-I - Orion P-III-NP assay combination decision limit did not change significantly following the addition of the new samples. The new decision limits are applied to currently available non-radioisotopic assays to measure IGF-I and P-III-NP in elite athletes, which should allow wider flexibility to implement the GH-2000 marker test for GH misuse while providing some resilience against manufacturer withdrawal or change of assays. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The high-speed induction motor: calculating the effects of solid-rotor material on machine characteristics

A method for the analysis of high-speed solid-rotor induction motors in presented. The analysis is based on a new combination of the three dimensional linear method and the transfer matrix method. Both saturation and finite length effects are taken into account. The active region of the solid rotor is divided into saturated and unsaturated parts. The time dependence is assumed to be sinusoidal and phasor quantities are used in the solution. The method is applied to the calculation of smooth solid rotors manufactured of different materials. Six rotor materials are tested: three construction steels, pure iron, a cobaltiron alloy and an aluminium alloy. The results obtained by the method agree fairly well with the measurement quantities.

Time-Varying Benefits of International Diversification for Finnish Investor: Country-Specific Strategy Concentrating on Emerging Markets

The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the Finnish investors’ country-specific strategy concentrating on emerging markets provides diversification benefits. We also analyze whether the benefits of international diversification has been diminished after periods of high volatility caused by different market crisis. The objective is investigated with three methods: Correlation coefficients, rolling correlations added with OLS trend-lines and Box’s M statistic. All the empirical tests are analyzed and calculated with logarithmic returns of weekly time series data from Friday closing values between January 1995 and December 2007. The number of weekly observations is 678. The data type is total return indices of different countries. Data is collected from DataStream and provided by Datastream Financial. Countries investigated are Finland, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. The current data is quoted both in U.S. Dollars and local currencies. The empirical results of this thesis show that the correlation coefficients are time-varying across Finland and 12 emerging market countries. Although the correlations have risen from 1995 to 2007, there can be found sub-periods where the correlation has declined from earlier period. The results also indicate that a Finnish investor constructing a portfolio of emerging market countries cannot rely on the correlation coefficients estimated from historical data because of the instability of correlation matrices.

Spatiotemporal Aspects of Environmental Monitoring in the Complex Coastal Region of Southwest Finland

The management and conservation of coastal waters in the Baltic is challenged by a number of complex environmental problems, including eutrophication and habitat degradation. Demands for a more holistic, integrated and adaptive framework of ecosystem-based management emphasize the importance of appropriate information on the status and changes of the aquatic ecosystems. The thesis focuses on the spatiotemporal aspects of environmental monitoring in the extensive and geomorphologically complex coastal region of SW Finland, where the acquisition of spatially and temporally representative monitoring data is inherently challenging. Furthermore, the region is subject to multiple human interests and uses. A holistic geographical approach is emphasized, as it is ultimately the physical conditions that set the frame for any human activity. Characteristics of the coastal environment were examined using water quality data from the database of the Finnish environmental administration and Landsat TM/ETM+ images. A basic feature of the complex aquatic environment in the Archipelago Sea is its high spatial and temporal variability; this foregrounds the importance of geographical information as a basis of environmental assessments. While evidence of a consistent water turbidity pattern was observed, the coastal hydrodynamic realm is also characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. It is therefore also crucial to consider the spatial and temporal representativeness of field monitoring data. Remote sensing may facilitate evaluation of hydrodynamic conditions in the coastal region and the spatial extrapolation of in situ data despite their restrictions. Additionally, remotely sensed images can be used in the mapping of many of those coastal habitats that need to be considered in environmental management. With regard to surface water monitoring, only a small fraction of the currently available data stored in the Hertta-PIVET register can be used effectively in scientific studies and environmental assessments. Long-term consistent data collection from established sampling stations should be emphasized but research-type seasonal assessments producing abundant data should also be encouraged. Thus a more comprehensive coordination of field work efforts is called for. The integration of remote sensing and various field measurement techniques would be especially useful in the complex coastal waters. The integration and development of monitoring system in Finnish coastal areas also requires further scientific assesement of monitoring practices. A holistic approach to the gathering and management of environmental monitoring data could be a cost-effective way of serving a multitude of information needs, and would fit the holistic, ecosystem-based management regimes that are currently being strongly promoted in Europe.

Home Blood Pressure Measurement – Epidemiology and Clinical Application

Verenpaineen kotimittaus − epidemiologia ja kliininen käyttö Kohonnutta verenpainetta, maailmanlaajuisesti merkittävintä ennenaikaiselle kuolemalle altistavaa riskitekijää, ei voida tunnistaa tai hoitaa ilman tarkkoja ja käytännöllisiä verenpaineen mittausmenetelmiä. Verenpaineen kotimittaus on saavuttanut suuren suosion potilaiden keskuudessa. Lääkärit eivät ole kuitenkaan vielä täysin hyväksyneet verenpaineen kotimittausta, sillä riittävä todistusaineisto sen toimivuudesta ja eduista on puuttunut. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli osoittaa, että kotona mitattu verenpaine (kotipaine) on perinteistä vastaanotolla mitattua verenpainetta (vastaanottopaine) tarkempi, ja että se on tehokas myös kliinisessä käytössä. Tutkimme kotipaineen käyttöä verenpainetaudin diagnosoinnissa ja hoidossa. Lisäksi tarkastelimme kotipaineen yhteyttä verenpainetaudin aiheuttamiin kohde-elinvaurioihin. Ensimmäinen aineisto, joka oli edustava otos Suomen aikuisväestöstä, koostui 2 120 45–74-vuotiaasta tutkimushenkilöstä. Tutkittavat mittasivat kotipainettaan viikon ajan ja osallistuivat terveystarkastukseen, johon sisältyi kliinisen tutkimuksen ja haastattelun lisäksi sydänfilmin otto ja vastaanottopaineen mittaus. 758 tutkittavalle suoritettiin lisäksi kaulavaltimon seinämän intima-mediakerroksen paksuuden (valtimonkovettumataudin mittari) mittaus ja 237:lle valtimon pulssiaallon nopeuden (valtimojäykkyyden mittari) mittaus. Toisessa aineistossa, joka koostui 98 verenpainetautia sairastavasta potilaasta, hoitoa ohjattiin satunnaistamisesta riippuen joko ambulatorisen eli vuorokausirekisteröinnillä mitatun verenpaineen tai kotipaineen perusteella. Vastaanottopaine oli kotipainetta merkittävästi korkeampi (systolisen/diastolisen paineen keskiarvoero oli 8/3 mmHg) ja yksimielisyys verenpainetaudin diagnoosissa kahden menetelmän välillä oli korkeintaan kohtalainen (75 %). 593 tutkittavasta, joilla oli kohonnut verenpaine vastaanotolla, 38 %:lla oli normaali verenpaine kotona eli ns. valkotakkiverenpaine. Verenpainetauti voidaan siis ylidiagnosoida joka kolmannella potilaalla seulontatilanteessa. Valkotakkiverenpaine oli yhteydessä lievästi kohonneeseen verenpaineeseen, matalaan painoindeksiin ja tupakoimattomuuteen, muttei psykiatriseen sairastavuuteen. Valkotakkiverenpaine ei kuitenkaan vaikuttaisi olevan täysin vaaraton ilmiö ja voi ennustaa tulevaa verenpainetautia, sillä siitä kärsivien sydän- ja verisuonitautien riskitekijäprofiili oli normaalipaineisten ja todellisten verenpainetautisten riskitekijäprofiilien välissä. Kotipaineella oli vastaanottopainetta vahvempi yhteys verenpainetaudin aiheuttamiin kohde-elinvaurioihin (intima-mediakerroksen paksuus, pulssiaallon nopeus ja sydänfilmistä todettu vasemman kammion suureneminen). Kotipaine oli tehokas verenpainetaudin hoidon ohjaaja, sillä kotipaineeseen ja ambulatoriseen paineeseen, jota on pidetty verenpainemittauksen ”kultaisena standardina”, perustuva lääkehoidon ohjaus johti yhtä hyvään verenpaineen hallintaan. Tämän ja aikaisempien tutkimusten tulosten pohjalta voidaan todeta, että verenpaineen kotimittaus on selkeä parannus perinteiseen vastaanotolla tapahtuvaan verenpainemittaukseen verrattuna. Verenpaineen kotimittaus on käytännöllinen, tarkka ja laajasti saatavilla oleva menetelmä, josta voi tulla jopa ensisijainen vaihtoehto verenpainetautia diagnosoitaessa ja hoitaessa. Verenpaineen mittauskäytäntöön tarvitaan muutos, sillä näyttöön perustuvan lääketieteen perusteella vaikuttaa, että vastaanotolla tapahtuvaa verenpainemittausta tulisi käyttää vain seulontatarkoitukseen.

The ADO Index as a Predictor of Two-Year Mortality in General Practice-Based Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

CSF biomarkers for the differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: A large-scale international multicenter study.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to test the diagnostic value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) beta-amyloid (Aβ1-42), phosphorylated tau, and total tau (tau) to discriminate Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia from other forms of dementia. METHODS: A total of 675 CSF samples collected at eight memory clinics were obtained from healthy controls, AD dementia, subjective memory impairment, mild cognitive impairment, vascular dementia, Lewy body dementia (LBD), fronto-temporal dementia (FTD), depression, or other neurological diseases. RESULTS: CSF Aβ1-42 showed the best diagnostic accuracy among the CSF biomarkers. At a sensitivity of 85%, the specificity to differentiate AD dementia against other diagnoses ranged from 42% (for LBD, 95% confidence interval or CI = 32-62) to 77% (for FTD, 95% CI = 62-90). DISCUSSION: CSF Aβ1-42 discriminates AD dementia from FTD, but shows significant overlap with other non-AD forms of dementia, possibly reflecting the underlying mixed pathologies.

Définition et prise en charge de l'échec d'une première injection de toxine botulique Botox(®) 200 U pour hyperactivité détrusorienne neurogène : résultats de l'enquête DETOX [Definition of botulinum toxin failure in neurogenic detrusor overactivity: Preliminary results of the DETOX survey].

OBJECTIVE: There is currently no guideline regarding the management of neurogenic detrusor overactivity (NDO) refractory to intra-detrusor botulinum toxin injections. The primary objective of the present study was to find a consensus definition of failure of botulinum toxin intra-detrusor injections for NDO. The secondary objective was to report current trends in the managment of NDO refractory to botulinum toxin. METHODS: A survey was created, based on data drawn from current literature, and sent via e-mail to all the experts form the Group for research in neurourology in french language (GENULF) and from the comittee of neurourology of the French urological association (AFU). The experts who did not answer to the first e-mail were contacted again twice. Main results from the survey are presented and expressed as numbers and proportions. RESULTS: Out of the 42 experts contacted, 21 responded to the survey. Nineteen participants considered that the definition of failure should be a combination of clinical and urodynamics criteria. Among the urodynamics criteria, the persistence of a maximum detrusor pressure>40cm H2O was the most supported by the experts (18/21, 85%). According to the vast majority of participants (19/21, 90.5%), the impact of injections on urinary incontinence should be included in the definition of failure. Regarding the management, most experts considered that the first line treatment in case of failure of a first intra-detrusor injection of Botox(®) 200 U should be a repeat injection of Botox(®) at a higher dosage (300 U) (15/20, 75%), regardless of the presence or not of urodynamics risk factors of upper tract damage (16/20, 80%). CONCLUSION: This work has provided a first overview of the definition of failure of intra-detrusor injections of botulinum toxin in the management of NDO. For 90.5% of the experts involved, the definition of failure should be clinical and urodynamic and most participants (75%) considered that, in case of failure of a first injection of Botox(®) 200 U, repeat injection of Botox(®) 300 U should be the first line treatment. Level of proof 4.

Is there any association between Hashimoto’s thyroiditis and thyroid cancer? A retrospective data analysis

AbstractObjective:To evaluate the association between Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) and papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).Materials and Methods:The patients were evaluated by ultrasonography-guided fine needle aspiration cytology. Typical cytopathological aspects and/or classical histopathological findings were taken into consideration in the diagnosis of HT, and only histopathological results were considered in the diagnosis of PTC.Results:Among 1,049 patients with multi- or uninodular goiter (903 women and 146 men), 173 (16.5%) had cytopathological features of thyroiditis. Thirty-three (67.4%) out of the 49 operated patients had PTC, 9 (27.3%) of them with histopathological features of HT. Five (31.3%) out of the 16 patients with non-malignant disease also had HT. In the groups with HT, PTC, and PCT+HT, the female prevalence rate was 100%, 91.6%, and 77.8%, respectively. Mean age was 41.5, 43.3, and 48.5 years, respectively. No association was observed between the two diseases in the present study where HT occurred in 31.1% of the benign cases and in 27.3% of malignant cases (p = 0.8).Conclusion:In spite of the absence of association between HT and PCT, the possibility of malignancy in HT should always be considered because of the coexistence of the two diseases already reported in the literature.

Pork Barrel politics in semi-democracies: the Spanish 'Parlamentary roads', 1874-1915

This paper analyzes the effects of parliamentary representation on road infrastructure expenditure during the Spanish Restoration. Using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces in 1880-1914 we find that the allocation of administrative resources among provinces depended both on the delegation characteristics (such as the share of MPs with party leadership positions, and their degree of electoral independence), and the regime"s global search for stability. These results point to the importance of electoral dynamics within semi-democratic political systems, and offer an example of the influence of government tactics on infrastructure allocation.

Pork Barrel politics in semi-democracies: the Spanish 'Parlamentary roads', 1874-1915

This paper analyzes the effects of parliamentary representation on road infrastructure expenditure during the Spanish Restoration. Using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces in 1880-1914 we find that the allocation of administrative resources among provinces depended both on the delegation characteristics (such as the share of MPs with party leadership positions, and their degree of electoral independence), and the regime"s global search for stability. These results point to the importance of electoral dynamics within semi-democratic political systems, and offer an example of the influence of government tactics on infrastructure allocation.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)