960 resultados para Probabilistic Projections
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This study aims to analyze which determinants predict frailty in general and each frailty domain (physical, psychological, and social), considering the integral conceptual model of frailty, and particularly to examine the contribution of medication in this prediction. A cross-sectional study was designed using a non-probabilistic sample of 252 community-dwelling elderly from three Portuguese cities. Frailty and determinants of frailty were assessed with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator. The amount and type of different daily-consumed medication were also examined. Hierarchical regression analysis were conducted. The mean age of the participants was 79.2 years (±7.3), and most of them were women (75.8%), widowed (55.6%) and with a low educational level (0–4 years: 63.9%). In this study, determinants explained 46% of the variance of total frailty, and 39.8, 25.3, and 27.7% of physical, psychological, and social frailty respectively. Age, gender, income, death of a loved one in the past year, lifestyle, satisfaction with living environment and self-reported comorbidity predicted total frailty, while each frailty domain was associated with a different set of determinants. The number of daily-consumed drugs was independently associated with physical frailty, and the consumption of medication for the cardiovascular system and for the blood and blood-forming organs explained part of the variance of total and physical frailty. The adverse effects of polymedication and its direct link with the level of comorbidities could explain the independent contribution of the amount of prescribed drugs to frailty prediction. On the other hand, findings in regard to medication type provide further evidence of the association of frailty with cardiovascular risk. In the present study, a significant part of frailty was predicted, and the different contributions of each determinant to frailty domains highlight the relevance of the integral model of frailty. The added value of a simple assessment of medication was considerable, and it should be taken into account for effective identification of frailty.
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Most of distributed generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to network operation parameters studies, reliability, etc. However, many of these works normally uses traditional test systems, for instance, IEEE test systems. This paper proposes voltage magnitude and reliability studies in presence of fault conditions, considering realistic conditions found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12-bus sub-transmission network.
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RESUMO: O aumento da longevidade humana é um facto prevalente na actualidade mas, a requerer grandes esforços na promoção da saúde e prevenção de doenças, estando, ainda, as pessoas idosas sob riscos elevados de desenvolver doenças à medida que envelhecem. Assim, é importante o contributo dos próprios indivíduos no sentido minorar estes riscos e retardar a evolução e agudizações das doenças uma vez manifestadas. Nesse sentido, o objectivo geral deste estudo é descrever de que modo os conhecimentos do diabético, podem estar relacionados com a presença de complicações da doença. Realizámos um estudo exploratório descritivo, no Hospital Nossa Senhora do Rosário E.P.E, em pessoas idosas residentes no concelho do Barreiro que frequentaram o Hospital Dia de Diabetologia, após as consultas médicas e de enfermagem. O método utilizado para a selecção da amostra foi a amostragem não probabilística por conveniência (n=50). O instrumento utilizado na colheita de dados foi um questionário, aplicado sob a forma de inquérito, para colheita de dados sócio-demográficos, saúde em geral, estado mental, dados sobre a diabetes e comorbilidades. Os dados foram tratados informaticamente, recorrendo ao programa estatístico S.P.S.S. e a análise de conteúdo. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que os participantes possuíam conhecimentos sobre a sua doença. Verificámos que os inquiridos que já tiveram complicações devido à diabetes responderam correctamente à questão acerca da medicação ser mais importante que a dieta e o exercício físico para controlar a diabetes, do que os que nunca tiveram complicações devido à diabetes, que responderam incorrectamente ou desconheciam a resposta à questão.----------- ABSTRACT: The increase in human longevity is a fact prevalent nowadays, but to require great efforts on health promotion and disease prevention and is also in the elderly high risk of developing illnesses as they age. It is therefore important contribution of the individuals themselves towards mitigating these risks and delaying the development and exacerbations of disease once manifested. Thus, the general purpose of this study is to describe how the knowledge of diabetes, may be related to complications of the disease. We conducted an exploratory study in the Hospital Nossa Senhora do Rosario EPE, in elderly people living in the county of Barry, who attended the hospital Diabetes Day, after the medical and nursing care. The method used for the sampling was not probabilistic by convenience sampling (n = 50). The instrument used for data collection was a questionnaire applied in the form of survey to collect socio-demographic data, general health, mental state, data on diabetes and comorbidities. The data were processed by computer, using the SPSS and content analysis. The results showed that participants had knowledge about their disease. We found that respondents who have had complications due to diabetes responded correctly to questions about the medication is more important than diet and exercise to control diabetes than those who never had complications due to diabetes, who answered incorrectly or did not know the answer the question.
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Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Neuroscience Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
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Pain transmission at the spinal cord is modulated by descending actions that arise from supraspinal areas which collectively form the endogenous pain control system. Two key areas involved of the endogenous pain control system have a circunventricular location, namely the periaqueductal grey (PAG) and the locus coeruleus (LC). The PAG plays a crucial role in descending pain modulation as it conveys the input from higher brain centers to the spinal cord. As to the LC, it is involved in descending pain inhibition by direct noradrenergic projections to the spinal cord. In the context of neurological defects, several diseases may affect the structure and function of the brain. Hydrocephalus is a congenital or acquired disease characterized by an enlargement of the ventricles which leads to a distortion of the adjacent tissues, including the PAG and LC. Usually, patients suffering from hydrocephalus present dysfunctions in learning and memory and also motor deficits. It remains to be evaluated if lesions of the periventricular brain areas involved in pain control during hydrocephalus may affect descending pain control and, herein, affect pain responses. The studies included in the present thesis used an experimental model of hydrocephalus (the rat injected in the cisterna magna with kaolin) to study descending modulation of pain, focusing on the two circumventricular regions referred above (the PAG and the LC). In order to evaluate the effects of kaolin injection into the cisterna magna, we measured the degree of ventricular dilatation in sections encompassing the PAG by standard cytoarquitectonic stanings (thionin staining). For the LC, immunodetection of the noradrenaline-synthetizing enzyme tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) was performed, due to the noradrenergic nature of the LC neurons. In general, rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus presented a higher dilatation of the 4th ventricle, along with a tendency to a higher area of the PAG. Due to the validated role of detection the c-fos protooncogene as a marker of neuronal activation, we also studied neuronal activation in the several subnuclei which compose the PAG, namely the dorsomedial, dorsolateral, lateral and ventrolateral (VLPAG) parts. A decrease in the numbers of neurons immunoreactive for Fos protein (the product of activation of the c-fos protooncogene) was detected in rats injected with kaolin, whereas the remaining PAG subnuclei did not present changes in Fos-immunoreactive nuclei. Increases in the levels of TH in the LC, namely at the rostral parts of the nucleus, were detected in hydrocephalic animals. The following pain-related parameters were measured, namely 1) pain behavioural responses in a validated pain inflammatory test (the formalin test) and 2) the nociceptive activation of spinal cord neurons. A decrease in behavioral responses was detected in rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus was detected, namely in the second phase of the test (inflammatory phase). This is the phase of the formalin test in which the motor behaviour is less important, which is important since a semi-quantitative analysis of the motor performance of rats injected with kaolin indicates that these animals may present some motor impairments. Collectively, the results of the behavioral studies indicate that rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus exhibit hypoalgesia. A decrease in Fos expression was detected at the superficial dorsal layers of the spinal cord in rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus, further indicating that hydrocephalus decreases nociceptive responses. It remains to be ascertained if this is due to alterations in the PAG and LC in the rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus, which may affect descending pain modulation. It remains to be evaluated what are the mechanisms underlying the increased pain inhibition at the spinal dorsal horn in the hydrocephalus rats. Regarding the VLPAG, the decrease in neuronal activity may impair descending modulation. Since the LC has higher levels of TH in rats with kaolininduced hydrocephalus, which also appears to increase the noradrenergic innervation in the spinal dorsal horn, it is possible that an increase in the release of noradrenaline at the spinal cord accounts for pain inhibition. Our studies also determine the need to study in detail patients with hydrocephalus namely in what concerns their thresholds to pain and to perform imaging studies focused on the structure and function of pain control areas in the brain.
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The aim of this contribution is to extend the techniques of composite materials design to non-linear material behaviour and apply it for design of new materials for passive vibration control. As a first step a computational tool allowing determination of macroscopic optimized one-dimensional isolator behaviour was developed. Voigt, Maxwell, standard and more complex material models can be implemented. Objective function considers minimization of the initial reaction and/or displacement peak as well as minimization of the steady-state amplitude of reaction and/or displacement. The complex stiffness approach is used to formulate the governing equations in an efficient way. Material stiffness parameters are assumed as non-linear functions of the displacement. The numerical solution is performed in the complex space. The steady-state solution in the complex space is obtained by an iterative process based on the shooting method which imposes the conditions of periodicity with respect to the known value of the period. Extension of the shooting method to the complex space is presented and verified. Non-linear behaviour of material parameters is then optimized by generic probabilistic meta-algorithm, simulated annealing. Dependence of the global optimum on several combinations of leading parameters of the simulated annealing procedure, like neighbourhood definition and annealing schedule, is also studied and analyzed. Procedure is programmed in MATLAB environment.
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RESUMO - O Inquérito Nacional de Saúde é um instrumento de observação em saúde promovido pelo Ministério da Saúde desde 1987, em resposta às necessidades crescentes de informação de saúde ligadas ao estabelecimento e às exigências de planeamento e avaliação decorrentes da instituição do Serviço Nacional de Saúde. O Inquérito Nacional de Saúde conta, até agora, com quatro edições. Os dados provêm através do estudo transversal de amostras probabilísticas da população portuguesa, através de entrevistas no domicílio, utilizando instrumentos e métodos válidos e estáveis. Os indicadores gerados descrevem o estado de saúde, utilização de cuidados de saúde e determinantes de saúde da população portuguesa residente em unidades de alojamento familiar e tem representatividade a nível nacional e regional. Além de útil para a investigação dos padrões e tendências na área da saúde da população, esta informação é importante como elemento de planeamento, na identificação de necessidades em saúde e na avaliação dos eventuais efeitos e impactes das intervenções realizadas na saúde da população. A evolução do Inquérito Nacional de Saúde depende da definição das necessidades de informação epidemiológica por parte do Estado e da sua integração no sistema europeu de inquéritos de saúde. --------------------------ABSTRACT – The National Health Interview Survey is an instrument of observation in health promoted by the Ministry of Health since 1987, in response to the growing demand for health information, derived from the institution of the National Health Service, as well as its planning and evaluation activities. The National Health Interview Survey has had four editions so far. Data are obtained through the cross-sectional study of probabilistic samples of the Portuguese population, through interviews at home, using valid and stable instruments and methods. Obtained indicators describe the state of health, use of health care and health determinants of the Portuguese population living in familiar dwellings, and are representative at national and regional levels. Besides its usefulness for the study of patterns and trends, this information is important for planning purposes, in the identification of health needs and for the evaluation of the eventual effects of the planned health interventions. The future of the National Health Interview Survey depends on the State’s definition of the needs of epidemiological information and also on its participation in the European system of health surveys. Keywords: health surveys; health indicators; epidem
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This work is a contribution to the definition and assessment of structural robustness. Special emphasis is given to reliability of reinforced concrete structures under corrosion of longitudinal reinforcement. On this communication several authors’ proposals in order to define and measure structural robustness are analyzed and discussed. The probabilistic based robustness index is defined, considering the reliability index decreasing for all possible damage levels. Damage is considered as the corrosion level of the longitudinal reinforcement in terms of rebar weight loss. Damage produces changes in both cross sectional area of rebar and bond strength. The proposed methodology is illustrated by means of an application example. In order to consider the impact of reinforcement corrosion on failure probability growth, an advanced methodology based on the strong discontinuities approach and an isotropic continuum damage model for concrete is adopted. The methodology consist on a two-step analysis: on the first step an analysis of the cross section is performed in order to capture phenomena such as expansion of the reinforcement due to the corrosion products accumulation and damage and cracking in the reinforcement surrounding concrete; on the second step a 2D deteriorated structural model is built with the results obtained on the first step of the analysis. The referred methodology combined with a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to compute the failure probability and the reliability index of the structure for different corrosion levels. Finally, structural robustness is assessed using the proposed probabilistic index.
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This study aimed to examine the differences in standing balance between individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) and subjects without PD (control group), under single and dual-task conditions. A cross-sectional study was designed using a non-probabilistic sample of 110 individuals (50 participants with PD and 60 controls) aged 50 years old and over. The individuals with PD were in the early or middle stages of the disease (characterized by Hoehn and Yahr as stages 1-3). The standing balance was assessed by measuring the centre of pressure (CoP) displacement in single-task (eyes-open/eyes-closed) and dual-task (while performing two different verbal fluency tasks). No significant differences were found between the groups regarding sociodemographic variables. In general, the standing balance of the individuals with PD was worse than the controls, as the CoP displacement across tasks was significantly higher for the individuals with PD (p<0.01), both in anteroposterior and mediolateral directions. Moreover, there were significant differences in the CoP displacement based parameters between the conditions, mainly between the eyes-open condition and the remaining conditions. However, there was no significant interaction found between group and condition, which suggests that changes in the CoP displacement between tasks were not influenced by having PD. In conclusion, this study shows that, although individuals with PD had a worse overall standing balance than individuals without the disease, the impact of performing an additional task on the CoP displacement is similar for both groups.
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Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems -Theory and Applications
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Target tracking with bearing-only sensors is a challenging problem when the target moves dynamically in complex scenarios. Besides the partial observability of such sensors, they have limited field of views, occlusions can occur, etc. In those cases, cooperative approaches with multiple tracking robots are interesting, but the different sources of uncertain information need to be considered appropriately in order to achieve better estimates. Even though there exist probabilistic filters that can estimate the position of a target dealing with incertainties, bearing-only measurements bring usually additional problems with initialization and data association. In this paper, we propose a multi-robot triangulation method with a dynamic baseline that can triangulate bearing-only measurements in a probabilistic manner to produce 3D observations. This method is combined with a decentralized stochastic filter and used to tackle those initialization and data association issues. The approach is validated with simulations and field experiments where a team of aerial and ground robots with cameras track a dynamic target.
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13th International Conference on Autonomous Robot Systems (Robotica), 2013, Lisboa
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The paper presents a multi-robot cooperative framework to estimate the 3D position of dynamic targets, based on bearing-only vision measurements. The uncertainty of the observation provided by each robot equipped with a bearing-only vision system is effectively addressed for cooperative triangulation purposes by weighing the contribution of each monocular bearing ray in a probabilistic manner. The envisioned framework is evaluated in an outdoor scenario with a team of heterogeneous robots composed of an Unmanned Ground and Aerial Vehicle.
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Presented at 23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France.
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In this paper, a module for homograph disambiguation in Portuguese Text-to-Speech (TTS) is proposed. This module works with a part-of-speech (POS) parser, used to disambiguate homographs that belong to different parts-of-speech, and a semantic analyzer, used to disambiguate homographs which belong to the same part-of-speech. The proposed algorithms are meant to solve a significant part of homograph ambiguity in European Portuguese (EP) (106 homograph pairs so far). This system is ready to be integrated in a Letter-to-Sound (LTS) converter. The algorithms were trained and tested with different corpora. The obtained experimental results gave rise to 97.8% of accuracy rate. This methodology is also valid for Brazilian Portuguese (BP), since 95 homographs pairs are exactly the same as in EP. A comparison with a probabilistic approach was also done and results were discussed.