A Multidimensional scaling perspective of Rostow's forecasts with the Track-record (1960s-2011) of "pioneers" and "latecomers"

Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems -Theory and Applications

The modeling of world economy evolution and the analysis of its dynamics poses problems of defining the proper concepts and mathematical tools for an assertive study. This paper applies multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment, as indicators of human development for 19 countries analyzed in Walter Rostow' Stages of Economy Growth. Results prove to be less optimistic than Neoclassical convergence projections based on the use of resources and decreasing marginal rates of return, but cannot reject Fogel 2007, regarding a global geopolitical turnover by 2040.