Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Tecnologia social para autogestão: um estudo em empreendimento econômico solidário do Rio Grande do Norte

The theme of this dissertation is social technology for self-management: a study in economic enterprise supportive of Rio Grande do Norte. The research aimed to obtain evidence that the reapplication of technology management, basic economic-financial and pricing, as production costs, has the potential to contribute to the self-management of APABV. The social technology and self-management are theoretical frameworks used and where workers are central figures in both the generation and replication of technologies that are compatible with their realities, as in the conduct and management approach adopted by them in their venture, they are makers decisions. To achieve the proposed objective was accomplished participatory research, which was used in addition to document analysis, participatory methodologies such as the construction of the DRP, group interview, experience in the production environment and family of entrepreneurs APABV. This research allowed the management technologies such as spreadsheets controls basic economic and financial costs, when socialized and understood by workers has the potential informational and become part of their daily decision-making process of the project, making up social technology

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

Interesses da habitação social : políticas e processos no Rio Grande do Norte

En 2003, le gouvernement brésilien (gestion Lula) a initié une nouvelle phase dans son histoire de l habitation, en intensifiant les constructions de logements sociaux au Brésil. Un tel accroissement a eut des répercussions tant en ville comme à la campagne, et fût marqué dans le Rio Grande do Norte, par la production a grande échelle d ensembles d habitations, dans les programmes de Gouvernement. Afin de viabiliser ces transformations, des instruments politiques, financiers et de gestion ont étés articulés conjointement, utilisant la répétition d une typologie d édification, comme modèle, accompagnée de la reproduction d une morphologie dans les constructions de logements sociaux. Afin de comprendre ce processus nous introduisons une recherche urbanistique et socio-économique du problème du logement social au Brésil, en cherchant à mettre en relation les aspects techniques avec les questions historique, professionnelles et culturelles, éléments complémentaires. Notre analyse cherche a identifier comment les politiques de gestion et financement officielles (administrées dans sa grande majorité par la Caisse Économique Fédérale -CEF-), influencent le processus de conception de projets, en provoquant les répétitions de type/morphologiques, déjà citées. Basée sur l observation directe au cour de deux expériences différenciées pour du logement social en milieu rural, au Rio Grande do Norte, nous montrerons aussi certaines limitations et possibilités des acteurs sociaux, face aux agents et politiques officielles pour le logement social au Brésil, proposant des solutions alternatives standardisées qui caractérisent le résultat des projets financées et gérés par la CEF. Nos principales références théoriques et méthodologiques sont Nabil Bonduki (1998), David Harvey (2009,1982), Henry Lefèbvre (1970), Ermínia Maricato (2010, 2009, 2000, 1987) et Raquel Rolnik (2010, 2009, 2008, 1997)

Da bancada ao Bureau: análise do desenvolvimento da biotecnologia no Nordeste Brasileiro sob o enfoque de Sistema Regional de Inovação

The starting point of the present work consisted of investigating the development of biotechnology in the Northeast region of Brazil from the perspective of a Regional Innovation System (RIS). The theoretical framework adopted relied on the approaches and concepts presented by the Neo-Schumpeterian perspective. This framework was chosen because, by means of the Innovation System concept, this literature allows us to analyze the relationships and configurations of actors, as well as the role of the state and of social, science and technology, and economic policies in the studied region. The analysis considered four selected dimensions: physical infrastructure, human capital, scientific production, and funding. These variables were chosen because they allow us to verify the possibilities and limitations of developing a biotechnology RIS in the Northeast of Brazil, and these elements would help in answering the question behind this dissertation. The location of the physical infrastructure was determined by means of bibliographic and documental research and interviews with heads of institutions that do biotechnology research. Regarding human capital, the analysis focused on resource training in biotechnology, highlighting graduate courses and research groups in the area. To measure knowledge production, we delimited scientific collaboration among researchers in the field of biotechnology as the focus of this category. For the funding dimension, information was gathered from reports available at the websites of national and state funding agencies. The data was analyzed through method triangulation, involving quantitative and qualitative research stages. To back the analyses, we revisited the integration policies in the area of Science, Technology and Innovation. Our analysis has shown that these policies play a crucial role in the development of biotechnology in the region being studied. The data revealed that the physical infrastructure is concentrated in only three states (Bahia, Ceará, and Pernambuco). In this regard, the Northeast Biotechnology Network (Renorbio) stands out as a strategic actor, enabling states with poor infrastructure to develop research through partnerships with institutions located in another state. We have also verified that the practices involving human resource training and knowledge production are factors that enable the emergence of a regional system for biotechnology in the studied region. As limitations, we have verified the low immersion level of regional actors, the heterogeneity of socioeconomic indicators, the lack of financial resources, and a low innovation culture in the business sector. Overall, we have concluded that the development of a Regional Innovation System in Biotechnology, based on the current regional dynamics, depends on an effective change in the behavior of the social agents involved, both in the national and regional dimensions as well as in the public and private spheres

Meios de resgatar a saúde bucal e autoestima de idosos

O presente estudo objetivou analisar as características epidemiológicas das condições de saúde bucal de 98 idosos de uma Instituição de Longa Permanência para Idosos (ILPI) e de 125 participantes de Grupos de Convivência, de bairros periféricos, socialmente semelhantes, de Fortaleza, Ceará, Brasil, para orientação do tratamento odontológico. Investigou-se a autopercepção em saúde bucal desses idosos a fim de realizar uma avaliação comparativa entre eles e com os levantamentos epidemiológicos de base nacional (SB Brasil) e de base estadual (SB Ceará). Devido a alguns idosos da ILPI recusarem o tratamento dentário e a identificação do elevado percentual de demenciados, optou-se por realizar uma avaliação cognitiva, o Mini Exame do Estado Mental (MEEM) visando identificar os aptos à reabilitação oral. Métodos: abordagem epidemiológica do tipo transversal, sendo a coleta de dados realizada por cinco examinadores, utilizando os critérios recomendados pela OMS (1997). Resultados: O CPO-D médio encontrado na ILPI, foi de 29,88, com predomínio do componente perdido (93,27%) enquanto o CPO-D médio dos não institucionalizados fixou-se em 30,17, com predomínio do componente perdido (63,70%). Também se avaliou o uso e a necessidade de prótese dentária: dos residentes na ILPI, 10,20% usavam prótese superior e 3,06%, inferior; 94,90% necessitavam de prótese superior e 97,96% de inferior; sendo a prótese total foi o tipo mais prevalente, 88,78% para ambos os arcos. O percentual do uso de prótese dos não institucionalizados foi 71,20% no arco superior, sendo 66,40% prótese total; já para o arco inferior, 32,80%, das quais 31,20% era prótese total. No presente estudo, tanto para uso quanto para necessidade, considerando ambos os arcos, a diferença entre os idosos institucionalizados e não institucionalizados foi estatisticamente significativa pelo teste Qui - quadrado (p<0,001). Como resultado do MEEM, observou-se deterioração cognitiva (escore ≤ 12) em 37,25% dos entrevistados, bem como um declínio cognitivo com o avanço da idade. Conclusões: Os resultados apontam que há um maior percentual de uso de prótese total no arco superior e maior frequência quanto à ausência de próteses de qualquer tipo no arco inferior. Evidenciou-se que os idosos pesquisados foram submetidos a tratamento mutilador e, como consequência necessitam de reabilitação oral, o que pressupõe a necessidade de políticas públicas para que isso ocorra efetivamente. Os participantes deste estudo caracterizam-se por uma autopercepção positiva da sua saúde bucal, a despeito das condições clínicas insatisfatórias e de precária saúde bucal, com acentuada prevalência de cárie dentária e edentulismo. O MEEM revelou deficiência cognitiva na maioria dos idosos, confirmando que a sua aplicação, previamente à reabilitação oral pode evitar desperdícios financeiros.Tais achados refletem a necessidade de implantação de políticas reabilitadoras em saúde bucal voltadas para o idoso; baseadas na perspectiva da integralidade como princípio doutrinário do Sistema Único de Saúde, o que redundaria numa melhor qualidade de vida, tanto pela melhor mastigação, digestão e nutrição, pelo maior aproveitamento dos alimentos, quanto pelo favorecimento à comunicação, pela dicção e fala, contribuindo para a socialização e consequente elevação da autoestima dessa clientela.

Os trabalhos de amor e outras mandingas: A experiência mágico-religiosa em terreiros de umbanda

The following text addresses the magical-religious experience carried on by many individuals when they seek to solve their love, financial and health problems by means of white magic spells done by pais-de-santo e mães-de-santo (saint s father and saint s mother) from umbanda. The rites through which this seek can be detected are free love spells, troublesolving spells, and healing spell. The concept of experience, here understood as the thing which gives sense to the sense, has been the main guiding idea of the reflections here enclosed. People who seek the umbandista spells as a way of solving their daily afflictions have the opportunity of living a rich magical-religious experience in which several dimensions intersect. Among these dimensions I decided to study the performance, the knowhow and the subjetivity. Each one gave rise to the opportunity of studying a range of other themes, such as the corporeity, the gestuality, vocality, the world knowledge, the science, the secret, the emotions and the moral. The ethnographic research was carried on in the yards which are named after Dona Luiza, Pai Gledson, Pai Salviano and Dona Terezinha umbanda, all of them situated in the town of Limoeiro do Norte, Ceará

Plano de Desenvolvimento da Escola (PDE): o processo de implantação de uma nova proposta de descentralização em duas escolas da rede municipal de ensino de Natal de 1999 a 2002

The 1988 Constitution was the legal marc to define changes in Brazilian State with major importance to the layout of public politician. In that moment of redefinitions e openness to new ways the redemocratization, participation and decentralization of public school had as their starter the elementary school. This work focus on the manage of FUNDESCOLA, particularly one of its politics called PDE (Educational Development Plan) wich purpose is guarantee a better quality in teaching and spread out democracy throughout its methodology. It was chosen two public schools: Professor Ulisses de Góis and Antonio Campos. The theoretical and methodological orientation is based on the theory of participative democracy developed by authors such as Putnam and Pateman. They says that a cultural background precedes individual participation in society. The collected data (educational legislation, surveys with all sectors of schools and technicians of Natal educational secretary, and relevant documents of de institutions) showed that PDE. Implementation had opposite runnings in the schools studied. In one, as a consequence of bad preparations of its teachers to absorve its methodology, PDE failed. In another way, PDE achieved its goals, especially helping the structure of action plans of the school and the administrative organization making possible several pedagogic activities planned. The work concludes that the main factor the failure or success of PDE relies on the organizational (both political and pedagogical) structure of each school. This discovery implies three important guidelines when comes to formulation of public politicians: a) Constitution of school; b) the local actors who manages the actions; c) the colletive interest in taking part of decisions

Caminho possível para o desenvolvimento do RN: a utopia do Polo Gás Sal

La présente étude sur la modernisation économique qui s est opérée dans le Rio Grande do Norte, constitue un débat concernant les tentatives de faire aboutir un projet de développement industriel fondé sur l exploitation des matières premières locales telles que le sel, le calcaire, les eaux mères et le pétrole, entre les années 70 et 90 du XXe siècle. Elle cherche à montrer, à partir de l observation de l action planifiée de l État national et régional, soutenu par le capital international et par les groupes économiques et politiques locaux, comment on a tenté d implanter, dans des conjonctures économiques distinctes, une industrie d intrants de base moyennant la création de deux pôles de développement : le Pólo Químico Industrial (1974) et le Pólo Gás Sal (1996). Elle est centrée sur l analyse des actions orientées vers la concrétisation de ces pôles, et prendra pour objet les politiques de développement émanant de l État national, en particulier celles qui relevaient du II PND et qui visaient, au cours des années 70, à l implantation d une industrie décentralisée dans la région Nordeste ; les règles fixées par le Plano Nacional de Desestatizações, destinées à promouvoir les privatisations des entreprises publiques brésiliennes, lesquelles ont rendu possible la vente d Alcanorte au groupe industriel commandé par Fragoso Pires, et les politiques définies par l État national et régional, rassemblées sous le titre de « guerre fiscale » afin d attirer des capitaux internationaux susceptibles de rendre viable le Pólo Gás Sal. Il y est démontré que l État a coordonné un ensemble d actions dans les domaines de l infrastructure et des exonérations fiscales et financières, dans le but d accélérer la transition d une économie primaire et exportatrice vers une économie moderne, industrialisée. Et que le concours simultané de forces économiques et sociales particulièrement expressives le capital national et international, les élites locales n a pas suffi pour promouvoir la modernisation industrielle escomptée des secteurs chimique et pétrochimique. Parmi les différentes raisons qui ont contribué à un tel échec, on peut mentionner : l absence d une accumulation interne préalable de capital ; la dépendance de l économie locale par rapport à la technologie et au capital des groupes économiques internationaux ; l inconsistance des stratégies de développement relevant de la politique qui caractérisait la « guerre fiscale », et la fragilité de la représentation politique locale

Limites e possibilidades do programa nacional de alimentação escolar enquanto estratégia de promoção da segurança alimentar e nutricional no municipio de Macaíba/RN

This dissertation aims to understand the importance of the National School Feeding as a strategy for ensuring the promotion of food and nutrition security in the municipality of Macaíba / RN, taking into account the implementation of the Law School Feeding, 11,947, 2009. The program was extended to all public basic education, youth and adults, in addition to ensuring that 30% of transfers from FNDE, were intended for the purchase of products from family farms. The survey was conducted with 160 students from public schools and farmers nesting Quilombo dos Palmares II, who produce on their land vegetables, fruits and cereals for their own consumption, for sale in local markets, in addition to providing for PNAE. The reciprocity between neighbors, such as mutual aid and sharing of common goods was noticeable in this group of farmers, since it was necessary to meet weekly deliveries of products to schools. As students, we applied a test of acceptability in two schools located in rural and in urban areas, to learn the opinion of ourselves in relation to school food consumed. It was concluded that to be most effective program in the region, there must be a better match in school menus, so that it can be attractive to students and to ensure greater use of fresh food, the main ingredient of same, practice of nutrition education in schools, to teach students the importance of food to health. In relation to local management, noted the need for adjustments bureaucratic as hiring staff for the departments, in order to be more agile in releasing payments to farmers, in addition to hiring assistants general services for schools, one Since the cooks exert dual role, the cooking while being responsible for cleaning the entire school environment. Government investments in the rural sector would be extremely valuable for farmers, since they need financial resources to purchase inputs, irrigation projects for gardens, availability of land for planting, transportation to facilitate the delivery of its products to schools and technical assistance more frequently

Prováveis consequências do abrandamento da metodologia de erradicação do cancro cítrico no Estado de São Paulo

Recentemente a Secretaria de Agricultura e Abastecimento do estado de São Paulo abrandou os critérios relacionados à erradicação do cancro cítrico. em abril de 2009 mais de 99,8% dos talhões comerciais de laranjeiras doces estavam livres da doença em São Paulo. Abrandar a metodologia de erradicação significa comprometer esse elevado nível de sanidade dos pomares e a competitividade da citricultura, com reflexos negativos financeiros e ambientais. Diante desses fatos sugere-se: a) que a erradicação da doença volte a ser feita como anteriormente utilizada; ou b) a adoção de uma nova metodologia de erradicação, mais efetiva na supressão da doença, quando em novos levantamentos amostrais de cancro cítrico em São Paulo forem encontradas incidências de talhões comerciais com a doença superiores a 0,36%. Essa incidência foi calculada comparando-se pelo teste de Duncan (P<0,05) os levantamentos amostrais de cancro cítrico realizados de 1999 a 2009. A diferença mínima significativa encontrada foi de 0,28. A menor incidência do cancro cítrico em São Paulo foi de 0,08%, observada em 2001. Dessa forma, como alternativa, propõe-se a adoção de uma metodologia mais drástica de erradicação do cancro cítrico quando em um novo levantamento amostral for detectado mais que 0,36% de talhões comerciais com cancro cítrico.

Assistência a mulher com câncer de mama em um cenro de referência no Estado da Paraíba

The assistance to women who have breast cancer is studied in a Reference Center in Paraiba and also the way this assistance is performed in a School Hospital maintained by SUS (Single Health System) is questioned. Breast cancer demands institutional organization, provision of financial, material and human resources, requiring, from the health system, effective assistance with new technologies which make it possible for the population their access to specialized medical services although it not always is able to guarantee those services nor the rights which the legislation granted them, inhibiting a proper relationship between the health professional and the patient. The theme is discussed through a transdisciplinary knowledge view and has as its theoretical referential the contribution of classical and contemporary authors from the human and social sciences and, as an empirical research strategy, the structured interview. The objectives of the research were: identify how the assistance to women with breast cancer is carried on at a Reference Center on Oncology in Campina Grande, Paraiba, identifying their difficulties and their satisfaction with the received assistance; draw up a profile of the women with breast cancer who were assisted in this Reference Center; understand their gynecological and obstetric antecedents, life styles, age group and stage of the disease when the treatment started; check their knowledge about their rights and which benefits they had received. Most women ranged between 40 and 59 years old (63%), which corresponds to the risk range of developing breast cancer. As to their occupations, 38.3% were housewives and 30.1% retired, whose family income was among those who received between less than a minimum salary and one minimum salary (58.2%). This population was mainly constituted of married women (60.2%), whose most frequent schooling was an incomplete elementary school (27.6%) and complete elementary school (24.1%), which added up to 51.6%. It was observed that the majority of the women seemed to be satisfied with the assistance received, noting that a minimum care was enough to define this satisfaction, although it is perceived that the access to the health system does not ensure the ideal attention conditions they need; it was verified that the availability of the services and the assistance itself are seen (in the local culture) as a favor and not as a right. It is also observed that only 30% of the women mentioned that they knew about their rights and the most mentioned ones were the disease assistance (13%), the medicines (13%) and the treatment (12%), which represent the most important triad to face the disease and around which the oncologic assistance most focus on. It is concluded that the condition of the users´ minimum existential of a public health unit and the condition of belonging to a lower social stratum were variables that influenced the respondents´ satisfaction in relation to the assistance received but the importance of the Reference Center for the women with breast cancer´s assistance for the whole region cannot be denied as well as the need to broaden the way the policy of the oncologic assistance in Brazil in the local realm is seen

O desafio constitucional da distribuição dos royalties de petróleo da bacia pré-sal para promoção de políticas públicas

The administrative model of the Brazilian State, based on regulation, strives, with the application of the efficiency principle and assessment of economical costs, to give a greater effectiveness to fundamental rights by implementing public policies.The objective of this work is to analyze the role of Oil royalties in the context of the Brazilian State, considering that, being an income gap, they might work as a device that promotes intra/intergenerational justice. By means of a correct and efficient distribution and application in the national region, the royalties constitute financial resources available for implementing public policies that intend to guarantee the fundamental rights; above all, with the discovery of the Pre-salt basin and the indisputable rise in the tax revenues arising from Oil exploration. In the making of this work, the theoretical-descriptive methodology is observed, grounded in a critical-reflexive analysis about Constitutional Law and Oil Law. This work analyzes the administrative model of the Brazilian State, the theory of costs of fundamental rights and the theoretical aspects about royalties, such as: the ethical and economical fundamentals, the distribution and destination of revenues, considering the oil exploration scenario before and after the discovery of the pre-salt basin. it is verified, with the present work, the importance of the creation of a new regulatory framework, and consequently the creation of a sovereign wealth fund, which arises to re-evaluate the application of the current norms of Oil revenue distribution. Still, it is imperative that the mechanisms for controlling the application of royalties are defined in detail, so that those can fully admit the objectives of intra/intergenerational justice. Furthermore, it is emphasized that this process should develop from the efficiency principle viewpoint, as well as the principle of reducing social and regional differences, given that the Oil revenues might be used to ensure fundamental social rights, by implementing public policies that are aligned with the development recommended by the Federal Constitution

Perfis do controle jurisdicional de políticas publicas: parâmetros objetivos e tutela coletiva

This paper focuses on a study of public policy jurisdictional control as some effectiveness mechanism for cultural, economical, and social fundamental rights. It investigates the juridical profile of public policies based on premises of the current (Neo)Constitutional State model and the assertion of an essentially constitutionalist Law paradigm from its genesis to its most peculiar elements, and through tormenting issues, such as: its position between Law and Politics, the difference with reflective subjective rights, and the problem of high financial costs. Once its object is identified, it moves forward into the theme itself, which is that of jurisdictional control, investigating its legitimacy based on paradigmatic judicial precedents and the facing of themes such as: current role of the Judicial Power, the splitting of state functions, administrative discretion, financial affordability, illegal omissions, and budget control. Finally, it examines, as its study central object, objective parameters for definition control, execution, and transparency of public policies, as well as identifying the most appropriate collective jurisdictional tutoring to its purposes together with some of its law process means. Therefrom, it shows new perspectives for the recent study on jurisdictional control of public policies, building foundations for the fundamental rights effectiveness

Diversidad genética de aislamientos de Bacillus subtilis con potencial para el control biológico de Colletotrichum acutatum y Guignardia citricarpa

O setor citrícola enfrenta sérios problemas representados por doenças de flores e frutos jovens que, além de diminuir a produtividade, depreciam os frutos pelo aspecto que conferem aos mesmos. Tais doenças são representadas, principalmente, pela mancha preta dos frutos cítricos (MPC) e pela queda prematura dos frutos cítricos (QPFC), onde a medida predominante de controle é a pulverização com produtos químicos. Entretanto, os custos financeiros e ambientais de aplicações com tais produtos, aliado às crescentes restrições à presença de resíduos, estão a exigir o estudo de novas alternativas. Entre estas, o controle biológico surge como alternativa importante. Sabendo-se que, o conhecimento da biodiversidade dos seres vivos é importante para determinação de suas funções potenciais, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo estudar a diversidade genética, através de marcadores moleculares AFLP, de 32 isolados de B. subtilis com a finalidade de se encontrar, dentre os mesmos, um (ou mais isolados) que apresentasse maior similaridade com o isolado ACB-69, o qual apresenta potencial para o controle da doença. Diante disso, os resultados obtidos neste trabalho, permitiram concluir que: a) os isolados de B. subtilis estudados agruparam-se no filograma de distância genética, independente da procedência ou do hospedeiro; b) os isolados ACB-69 e ACB-83, com potenciais para o controle da queda prematura dos frutos cítricos, compartilham da mesma ancestralidade, o que pode ser inferido pela metodologia aplicada; c) em termos biológicos; o isolado ACB-83 merece mais estudos quanto à viabilidade de controle de doenças de citros, como a queda prematura dos frutos cítricos e a manha preta dos frutos cítricos, sob condições de campo.