Stadilaispojat, rikokset ja lastensuojelu : Viisi tapaustutkimusta kuudelta vuosikymmeneltä

Societal reactions to norm breaking behavior of children reveal, how we understand childhood, the relations between generations and communitie's ratio of tolerance. In Finland the children that repeatedly commit crimes receive social service measures that are based on Child Welfare Act. In the city of Helsinki (Stadi in the slang of Helsinki) existed an agency specifically established for ill-behaving children until the 1980's, agter which an unified agency for the maltreated and maladjusted children was founded. Through five boys' welfare cases, this research aims at defining what kind of positions, social relations and structures are constructed in the social dynamics of these children's everyday lives. The cases cover different decades from the 1940s to the present. At the same time the cases reflect the child welfare and societal practices, and reveal how the communities have participated in constructing deviance in different eras. The research is meta-theoretically based on critical realism and specifically on Roy Bhaskar's transformative model of social activity. The cases are analyzed in the framework of Edwin M. Lemert's societal reaction theory. Thus the focus of the study is on the wide structural context of the institutional and societal definitions of deviance. The research is methodologically based on a qualitative multiple case study research. The primary data consist of classified child welfare case files collected from the archives of the city of Helsinki. The data of the institutional level consist of the annual reports from 1943 to 2004 and the ordinances from 1907 onwards, and of various committee documents produced in the law-making process of child welfare, youth and criminal legislation of the 20th century. Empirical finding are interpreted in a dialogue with previous historical and child welfare research, contemporary literature and studies on the urban development. The analysis is based on Derek Layder's model of adaptive theory. The research forms a viewpoint to the historical study of child welfare, in which the historical era, its agents and the dynamics of their mutual relations are studied through an individual level reconstruction based on the societal reaction theory. The case analyses reveal how the positions of the children form differently in the different eras of child welfare practices. In the 1940s the child is positioned as a psychopath and a criminal type. The measures are aimed at protecting the community from the disturbed child, and at adjusting the individual by isolation. From 1960s to 1980s the child is positioned as a child in need of help and support. The child becomes a victim, a subject that occupies rights, and a target of protection. In the turn of the millennium a norm breaking child is positioned as a dangerous individual that, in the name of the community safety, has to be confined. The case analyses also reveal the prevailing academic and practical paradigms of the time. Keywords: childhood, youth, child protection, child welfare, delinquency, crime, deviance, history, critical realism, case study research

Kansallisen konsensuskulttuurin jäljillä : Globalisaatioajan Suomi Helsingin Sanomissa

The dissertation analyzes Finnish consensual culture in public discussion and journalism in Helsingin Sanomat (HS). The consensual Finnish political culture has evolved and persisted over a long period of time and it has been affected by historical circumstances as well as the dynamics of political and journalistic structures and actors. A historical chronology is drawn in the study regarding the nature and development of consensus culture in 20th century Finland. This political culture is traced by looking at public discussion on globalization at the turn of the millennium. Globalization as a concept has been contested and various societal actors have given different meanings to it. This research looks at how the globalization discussion in HS during the years 1992-2004 constructs consensus. Helsingin Sanomat (and its predecessor Päivälehti) has been an important actor in Finnish journalism and the public sphere almost since its founding 120 years ago. The history of the paper is tightly connected to Finland s general political history and history of the public sphere. Moreover, the paper s connections to the societal elite have always been close. The central question in this research was to see how the globalization discussion in HS evolved in relation to consensus as well as legitimate controversies. As a result it is stated that the globalization question has clearly divided the Finnish societal actors. The most powerful societal elites (government, most civil servants, corporate sector) had a profile of being pro globalization. They communicated their globalization strategy as a national, unified way of thinking. Other elites which have been losing their influence (the president, labor union, part of members of parliament), as well as civil society actors tried to bring forward conflicting views in relation to globalization. The paper did give some room to these elements, but on the other hand it also tried to keep up the consensual discussion culture especially in the editorial section. In line with its traditions Helsingin Sanomat strived to create national unity. At the same time it did not give adequate attention to the changes brought about by globalization to the positions and roles of various elites and civil society actors. In this discussion HS seemed more like a medium of the state than as a critical and independent actor. Journalism has an important role in upholding and also reviving the Finnish political culture and public discussion. From this point of view it is problematic if the area of so called legitimate controversy in broad societal questions like globalization becomes very limited. As the Finnish elites are small and there is no considerable competition between them, journalism should actively bring up controversial issues. This task becomes complicated, however, if the elite circles are closed up and no initiatives come from their ranks. Political decision making as well as democracy can suffer, if issues are not brought to the public agenda.

Elämän tiede : Tutkimus lääketieteellisestä teknologiasta, vanhemmuudesta ja perimän hallinnasta

Doctoral dissertation work in sociology examines how human heredity became a scientific, political and a personal issue in the 20th century Finland. The study focuses on the institutionalisation of rationales and technologies concerning heredity, in the context of Finnish medicine and health care. The analysis concentrates specifically on the introduction and development of prenatal screening within maternity care. The data comprises of medical articles, policy documents and committee reports, as well as popular guidebooks and health magazines. The study commences with an analysis on the early 20th century discussions on racial hygiene. It ends with an analysis on the choices given to pregnant mothers and families at present. Freedom to choose, considered by geneticists and many others as a guarantee of the ethicality of medical applications, is presented in this study as a historically, politically and scientifically constructed issue. New medical testing methods have generated new possibilities of governing life itself. However, they have also created new ethical problems. Leaning on recent historical data, the study illustrates how medical risk rationales on heredity have been asserted by the medical profession into Finnish health care. It also depicts medical professions ambivalence between maintaining the patients autonomy and utilizing for example prenatal testing according to health policy interests. Personalized risk is discussed as a result of the empirical analysis. It is indicated that increasing risk awareness amongst the public, as well as offering choices, have had unintended consequences. According to doctors, present day parents often want to control risks more than what is considered justified or acceptable. People s hopes to anticipate the health and normality of their future children have exceeded the limits offered by medicine. Individualization of the government of heredity is closely linked to a process that is termed as depolitization. The concept refers to disembedding of medical genetics from its social contexts. Prenatal screening is regarded to be based on individual choice facilitated by neutral medical knowledge. However, prenatal screening within maternity care also has its basis in health policy aims and economical calculations. Methodological basis of the study lies in Michel Foucault s writings on the history of thought, as well as in science and technology studies.

Matkailurakentaminen ja sen diskursiivinen rakentuminen Kilpisjärvellä

This master s thesis examines tourism related housing and related discourses in the village of Kilpisjärvi, Finland. I study the tourism development in Kilpisjärvi and the debate related to this process. My methodology is based on discourse and content analysis. The purpose of this study is to examine and classify the discourses of tourism related housing and what are the lessons learned from the recent development of Kilpisjärvi. Kilpisjärvi is the northernmost village in western Finnish Lapland, located in the middle of the highest mountain area of Finland. The area has been reindeer herding area of Saami people for centuries, but it has lacked permanent settlement until the beginning of 20th century. The first tourist accommodation was built in 1930s, followed by the road in 1940s and the hotel in 1950s. Traditionally the area has attracted skiers and hikers. The area is also known for its extraordinary nature and rare plant life. Tourism development was slow in Kilpisjärvi until the turn of millennium when rapid growth in tourism related housing was triggered by extensive land use planning. Small wilderness village of Kilpisjärvi has grown to a tourism centre with over 800 beds in commercial enterprises, more than hundred second-homes, and two large caravan areas. This development has raised conflicts among villagers. The empirical part of this study is based on the interviews of 17 permanent dwellers of Kilpisjärvi and three Norwegian cottage owners. Six discourses can be distinguished: 1) Nature and landscape, 2) Economy, 3) Place, 4)Reindeer herding, 5) Governance and 6) Possibilities to influence decision-making. The first discourse stressed that tourism development and building should adapt to nature and landscape, while economic discourse stressed the economical importance of tourism to Kilpisjärvi and the municipality of Enontekiö. The third discourse noted the change of Kilpisjärvi as a place due to the boom of tourism development. The discourse of reindeer herding was clearly distinguished from others, seeing tourism development merely negative. Governance was seen as an important tool in regulating development, but many saw that the municipal administration has failed to take into account other aspects of tourism development than economical factors. Many villagers saw their influence in decision-making weak, while landowners and municipal decision-makers were seen as oligarchy in land-use planning regardless of formal participatory planning process enforced by law. I conclude that it is important to take into account the diversity of local discourses in tourism development and land use issues. Transparent and genuine participatory planning process would promote sustainable development, prevent conflicts and allow decisions and development which would satisfy larger number of local dwellers than presently.

Köyhyyden perintö : Tutkimus kulttuurisen tiedon sisällöistä ja jatkuvuuksista suomalaisissa elämäkerta- ja sananlaskuaineistoissa

The Legacy of Poverty. A Study of the substance and continuity of cultural knowledge in Finnish biographical and proverbial texts The study focuses on the idea of the cultural knowledge and shared understanding that ordinary people, folk , have of the concepts and ideas about rural based poverty in Finland. Throughout 19th century and well into 20th century, the majority of the population remained agrarian and poor. By the 1950s, most people still lived in rural areas and a majority of them earned their living primarily from agriculture and forestry. Urbanization proceeded rapidly from the 1960s onwards. Even though the Nordic welfare state was firmly established in Finland by the 1970s, old forms of agrarian poverty still remained in the culture. The source material for the study consists of 99 biographies and 502 proverbs. Biographical texts include written autobiographies and interviewed biographies. A primary analyzing concept is called a poverty speech. The poverty speech has been analyzed by providing answers to the following three questions: What connotations do people attach to poverty when they speak about it? What sort of social relations arise when people speak about poverty? How is the past experience of poverty constructed in the present and in the welfare state context? Cultural knowledge is a theoretical and analytical tool that enables people to categorize information. The three questions stated above are crucial in revealing the schematic structure that people use to communicate about agrarian poverty. Categories are analyzed and processed in terms of cultural themes that contain the ideals and stereotypes of spoken motif and sub-themes. The application of theoretical and analytical premises to the poverty speech has shown that there are four cultural themes. The first theme is Power. The social connotations in the poverty speech are mostly in relation to the better-off people. Poverty does not exist without an awareness of welfare, i.e. the understanding of a certain standard of welfare above that of one's own. The second theme is about family ties as a resource and welfare network. In poverty speech, marriage is represented as a means to upgrade one's livelihood. Family members are described as supporting one another, but at the same time as being antagonists. The third theme, Work represents the work ethic that is being connected to the poverty. Hard working as a representation is attached to eligibility for `a good life´ that in Finland was to become an owner-occupier of a cottage or a flat. The fourth theme is Security. The resentment of unfair treatment is expressed by using moral superiority and rational explanations. The ruling classes in the agrarian society are portrayed as being evil and selfish with no social conscience because they did not provide enough assistance to those who needed it. During the period when the welfare benefit system was undeveloped, the poor expected the wealthier people to make a contribution to the distribution of material wealth. In the premises of cultural knowledge, both oral and written traditions are about human thinking: they deal with topics, ideas and evaluations that are relevant to their bearers. Many elements expressed in poverty speech, such as classifications and customs derived from the rural world, have been carried over into the next generation in newer contexts and a different cultural environment. Keywords: cultural knowledge, cognitive categorization, poverty, life stories, proverbs

Variation i kvinnors namnfraser i officiella dokument i Helsingfors 1780-1930 : Socioonomastiska synvinklar på makt och identitet

This dissertation is an onomastic study of variation in women s name phrases in official documents in Finland during the period 1780−1930. The aim is to discuss from a socio-onomastic perspective both the changeover from patronymics to inherited family names and the use of surnames after marriage (i.e. whether women adopted their husbands family names or retained their maiden names), before new laws in this area entered into force in Finland in the early 20th century. In 1920, a law on family names that required fixed names put an end to the use of the patronymic as a person s only surname. After 1929, it was no longer possible for a married woman to retain her maiden name. Methodologically, to explain this development from a socio-onomastic perspective, I have based my study on a syntactic-semantic analysis of the actual name phrases. To be able to demonstrate the extensive material, I have elaborated a scheme to divide the 115 different types of name phrases into 13 main categories. The analysis of the material for Helsinki is based on frequency calculations of the different types of name phrases every thirtieth year, as well as on describing variation in the structure and semantic content of the name phrases, e.g. social variation in the use of titles and epithets. In addition to this, by applying a biographic-genealogical method, I have conducted two case studies of the usage of women s name phrases in the two chosen families. The study is based on parish registers from the period 1780−1929, estate inventory documents from the period 1780−1928, registration forms for liberty of trade from the period 1880−1908, family announcements on newspapers from the period 1829−1888, gravestones from the period 1796−1929 and diaries from the periods 1799−1801 and 1818−1820 providing a corpus of 5 950 name phrases. The syntactic-semantic analysis has revealed the overall picture of various ways of denoting women in official documents. In Helsinki, towards the end of the 19th century, the use of inherited family names seems to be almost fully developed in official contexts. At the late 19th century, a patronymic still appears as the only surname of some working-class women whereas in the early 20th century patronymics were only entered in the parish register as a kind of middle name. In the beginning of the 19th century, most married women were still registered under their maiden names, with a few exceptions among the bourgeoisie and upper class. The comparative analysis of name phrases in diaries, however, indicates that the use of the husband s family name by married women was a much earlier phenomenon in private contexts than in official documents. Keywords: socio-onomastics, syntactic-semantic analysis, name phrase, patronymic, maiden name, husband s family name

The Man Question

What happens when sexuality is banned from IAT public discourse? This book shows how everyday sexual behaviour and morality were — or were not — affected by the Soviet censorship on sexuality. Based on autobiographies written by ordinary people from St. Petersburg, it presents the loves and lives of three generations. It describes perceptions of love, the life course of the Russian family, transmissions of sexual knowledge, informal and illegal practices and contrasting subcultures. By posing the 'man question', Anna Rotkirch argues that the postsocialist transformation has centred on the Russian man. By contrast, one of the strongest continuities in the Russian gender system concerns the ways of mothering.

Uloimmalla rannalla : Luotsi- ja majakkamiesperheet asemayhdyskunnissaan

The subject of the present research is historical lighthouse and maritime pilot stations in Finland. If one thinks of these now-abandoned sites as an empty stage, the dissertation aims to recreate the drama that once played out there. The research comprises three main themes. The first, the family problematic, focuses on the relationship between the family members concerned and the public service positions held, as well as the islands on which these people were stationed. The role of the male actors becomes apparent through an examination of the job descriptions of pilots and lighthouse keepers, but the role of the wives appears more problematic: running a household and the insularity of the community came with their own challenges, and the husbands were away for much of the time. In this context the children emerge as crucial. What was their role in the family of a public official? What were the effects of having to move to the mainland for school? The second theme is the station community. A socioecological examination is undertaken which defines the islands as plots allowing the researcher to study the social behaviours of the isolated communities in question. The development of this theme is based on interpretations of interviews revealing starkly opposed views on the existing neighbourly relations. The premise is that social friction is inevitable among people living within close proximity of each other, and the study proceeds to become an analysis that seeks to uncover the sociocultural strategies designed to control the risks of communal living either by creating distance between neighbours or by enhancing their mutual ties. In connection with this, the question of why some neighbourhoods were open and cooperative while others were restrained and quarrelsome is addressed. Finally, the third main theme discusses the changes in piloting and lighthouse keeping that took place increasingly numerous towards the end of the 20th century. How did individuals react to the central management s technocratic strivings and rationalisations, such as the automation of lighthouses and the intense downsizing of the network of pilot stations? How was piloting, previously very comprehensive work, splintered into specialisations, and how did the entire occupation of lighthouse keeping lose its status before completely disappearing, as the new technology took over?

Rätt som argument : Leo Mechelin och finska frågan 1886-1912

Right as an Argument. Leo Mechelin and the Finnish Question 1886-1912 At the turn of the 20th century the Finnish Question rose up as a political and juridical issue at the international arena. The vaguely précised position of Finland in the Russian empire led to diverse conclusions concerning the correctness of the February manifesto of 1899. It was predominantly among a European elite of politicians, cultural workers and academics the issue rose some interest. Finns were active making propaganda for their cause, and they put an emphasis on the claim that the right was on the Finnish side. In the study Elisabeth Stubb compare the Finnish, Russian and European statements about the Finnish Question and analyse their use of right as an argument. The Finnish Question offers at the same time a case study of a national entity which possesses a political sphere of life but is not fully independent, and its possibilities to drive its interests in an international context. Leo Mechelin (1839-1914), the leader of the Finnish propaganda organization abroad, is used as a point of departure. The biographical stance is formed into a triangle, where Leo Mechelin, the idea of right and the Finnish Question abroad are the three cornerstones. The treatment of one cornerstone sheds a ligth on the two others. The metaphor of triangulation also worked as a method to reach "a third stance" in a scinetific and political issue that usually is polarised into two opposite alternatives. An adherence to a strict legal right could not in the end offer a complete, unquestionable and satisfactory solution to the Finnsih Question, it was dependent on "the right of state wisdom and sound insight". The Finnish propaganda abroad used almost completely alternative ways of making politics. The propaganda did not have a decisive effect on countries' official politics, but gained unofficial support, especially in the public opinion and in academic statements. Mechelin claimed that the political field was dependent on public opinion and scientific research. Together with the official politics these two fields formed a triangle that shared the task of balancing the political arena and preventing it from making unwise decisions of taking an unjust turn. The international sphere worked as a balancing part in the Finnish Question. Mechelin tried by claiming the status of state for Finland's part to secure the country a place at the official international arena. At the same time, and especially when the claim was not fully adopted, he emphasised, and in a European context worked for, that right would become the guiding light not only for international relations, but also for the policy making in the inner life of the state.

Asemakaavoitus Helsingin seudun kasvun hallinnassa

Many Finnish municipalities need to control their growth. In this research growth is understood as developments of land utilisation and also as a wide range of other changes that have mainly ap-peared as a result of a long term growth in population. The development growth control contains four areas: 1. adequate productivity of town planning, 2. stationing the growth to needs led and for sustainable developments, 3. quality of the developing environment, and 4. producing growth with communicative and transparent process. The aim of the research is to represent connection between town planning and development growth control. Research defines the role of town planning in the municipalities development growth control. In addition research focuses on links between town planning and development growth control in history, present and in the development work for the future. According to the hypothesis the extensive examination of town planning enables better growth control and promotes appropriate response to municipal changes regarding housing delivery. As an example there are five outskirt municipalities in the Helsinki region. They are called Kirkkonummi, Vihti, Nurmijärvi, Tuusula and Sipoo. The decision was to use examples based on a contingence theory. According to the theory there is no one correct way to operate. Therefore development should be based on individual municipal needs. In the research, municipality s needs were collected by 20 semi- structured interviews from municipal officials. In addition there were group interviews in Uusimaa Regional Council and in Uusimaa Regional Environmental Centre. There was also secondary material collected from official papers and statistics. Operationalisation was the analysis tool between empiric and literature reviews. The role of town planning has evolved during the 20th century from a more simple town plan level to operative stage in town planning hierarchy. Outskirt municipalities town planning was established during the 1960s. Since then one of the most important aims in the town planning has been to produce growth and building possibilities. Currently the challenge is to reach the satisfying rate of productivity and to meet increased housing demand. Other challenges include locating the appropriate geographical areas for growth; and the balance between required developments and planning permission decisions. Findings concluded that town planning should be more viable and it should have better ability to co-operate and operate in the changing operational environment. Municipality s ability to receive growth can increase and growth control can advance by planned and workable town planning. It is essential to take wide perspective of the each municipality's unique needs to improve productivity rather than to focus simply on productivity.

Deutschland, Deutschland über alles : Tysk föreningsverksamhet i Finland och Sverige 1910-1950

The voluntary associations dealt with in this dissertation were ethnic clubs and societies promoting the interests of German immigrants in Finland and Sweden. The associations were founded at the end of the 19th century as well as at the beginning of the 20th century during a time in which migration was high, the civil society grew rapidly and nationalism flourished. The work includes over 70 different associations in Finland and Sweden with a number of members ranging from ten to at most 2, 500. The largest and most important associations were situated in Helsinki and Stockholm where also most of the German immigrants lived. The main aim of this work is to explore to what extent and how the changes in government in Germany during 1910 to 1950 were reflected in the structures and participants, financial resources and meeting places, networks and activities of the German associations in Finland and Sweden. The study also deals with how a collective German national identity was created within the German associations. The period between 1910 and 1950 has been described by Hobsbawm as the apogee of nationalism. Nationalism and transnationalism are therefore key elements in the work. Additionally the research deals with theories about associations, networking and identity. The analysis is mostly based on minutes of meetings, descriptions of festivities, annual reports and historical outlines about the associations. Archival sources from the German legations, the German Foreign Office, and Finnish and Swedish officials such as the police and the Foreign Offices are also used. The study shows that the collective national identity in the associations during the Weimar Republic mostly went back to the time of the Wilhelmine Empire. It is argued that this fact, the cultural propaganda and the aims of the Weimar Republic to strengthen the contacts between Germany and the German associations abroad, and the role of the German legations and envoys finally helped the small groups of NSDAP to infiltrate, systematically coordinate and finally centralize the German associational life in Finland and Sweden. The Gleichschaltung did not go as smoothly as the party wanted, though. There was a small but consistent opposition that continued to exist in Finland until 1941 and in Sweden until 1945. The collective national identity was displayed much more in Sweden than in Finland, where the associations kept a lower profile. The reasons for the profile differences can be found in the smaller number of German immigrants in Finland and the greater German propaganda in Sweden, but also in the Finnish association act from 1919 and the changes in it during the 1920s and 1930s. Finally, the research shows how the loss of two world wars influenced the associations. It argues that 1918 made the German associations more vulnerable to influence from Germany, whereas 1945 brought the associational life back to where it once started as welfare, recreational and school associations.

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.