Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Growth defect in Grg5 null mice is associated with reduced Ihh signaling in growth plates

Gene-targeted disruption of Grg5, a mouse homologue of Drosophila groucho (gro), results in postnatal growth retardation in mice. The growth defect, most striking in approximately half of the Grg5 null mice, occurs during the first 4-5 weeks of age, but most mice recover retarded growth later. We used the nonlinear mixed-effects model to fit the growth data of wild-type, heterozygous, and Grg5 null mice. On the basis of preliminary evidence suggesting an interaction between Grg5 and the transcription factor Cbfa1/Runx2, critical for skeletal development, we further investigated the skeleton in the mice. A long bone growth plate defect was identified, which included shorter zones of proliferative and hypertrophic chondrocytes and decreased trabecular bone formation. This decreased trabecular bone formation is likely caused by a reduced recruitment of osteoblasts into the growth plate region of Grg5 null mice. Like the growth defect, the growth plate and trabecular bone abnormality improved as the mice grew older. The growth plate defect was associated with reduced Indian hedgehog expression and signaling. We suggest that Grg5, a transcriptional coregulator, modulates the activities of transcription factors, such as Cbfa1/Runx2 in vivo to affect Ihh expression and the function of long bone growth plates.

Effect of individual variability on estimation of population parameters from length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity and investigate the possible bias in the estimates when the individual variability is ignored. Three methods are examined: (i) the regression method based on the Beverton and Holt's (1956, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 140: 67-83) equation; (ii) the moment method of Powell (1979, Rapp. PV. Reun. Int. Explor. Mer, 175: 167-169); and (iii) a generalization of Powell's method that estimates the individual variability to be incorporated into the estimation. It is found that the biases in the estimates from the existing methods are, in general, substantial, even when individual variability in growth is small and recruitment is uniform, and the generalized method performs better in terms of bias but is subject to a larger variation. There is a need to develop robust and flexible methods to deal with individual variability in the analysis of length-frequency data.

Spawning stock dynamics of two penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Spawning stock dynamics of 2 commercially important penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, from 9 stations in Moreton Bay (27°15'S, 153°15'E), southeast Queensland, Australia, were examined. An egg production index (EPI), based on the relative abundance, proportion that were mature or ripe, and size of adult females, was used as a measure of egg production in the 2 populations. Egg production by M. bennettae was 20 to 30 higher than that by P. esculentus, extended over 7 to 8 mo each year and peaked from February to March (late summer to early autumn). Monthly patterns in egg production by M. bennettae varied between years. In contrast, P. esculentus produced most of its eggs in a single, clearly defined peak in October (spring), although production continued to March (early autumn) each year. The seasonal onset and subsequent decline in maturation in P. esculentus were rapid. Egg production by M. bennettae was several times higher at the 5 northern stations than at the 4 southern stations and negatively correlated with salinity during the main spawning period. Egg production by P. esculentus was less varied among stations and positively correlated with depth. P. esculentus appeared more likely than M. bennettae to experience recruitment overfishing because (1) the peak spawning period for P. esculentus was dependent on relatively few adult females spawning over a short period, and (2) the selectivity of trawl nets used in the bay was much higher for P. esculentus spawners than for those of M. bennettae. Compared with more northern populations, P. esculentus in Moreton Bay matured at a larger size, had lower incidences of insemination and mature or ripe females, and had a shorter spawning period. These results suggest the likelihood of recruitment overfishing in P. esculentus increases with increasing latitude.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus(black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 2. Seed production and soil seed banks of H. contortus

Seed production and soil seed hanks of H. contortus were studied in a subset of treatments within an extensive grazing study conducted in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland between 1990 and 1996. Seed production of H. contortus in autumn ranged from 260 to 1800 seeds/m2 with much of this variation due to differences in rainfall between years. Seed production was generally higher in the silver-leaved ironbark than in the narrow-leaved ironbark land class and was also influenced by a consistent stocking rate x pasture type interaction. Inflorescence density was the main factor contributing to the variable seed production and was related to the rainfall received during February. The number of seeds per inflorescence was unaffected by seasonal rainfall, landscape position, stocking rate or legume oversowing. Seed viability was related to the rainfall received during March. Soil seed banks in spring varied from 130 to 520 seeds/m2 between 1990 and 1995 with generally more seed present in the silver-leaved ironbark than in the narrow-leaved ironbark land class. There were poor relationships between viable seed production and the size of the soil seed bank, and between the size of the soil seed bank and seedling recruitment. This study indicates that H. contortus has the potential to produce relatively large amounts of seed and showed that the seasonal pattern of rainfall plays a major role in achieving this potential

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus(black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 1. Dynamics of H. contortus populations

The dynamics of Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) populations were measured in a subset of treatments contained within an extensive grazing study conducted between 1990 and 1996 in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland. This subset included 2 landscape positions and 3 stocking rates in both native pasture and legume-oversown native pasture. Severe drought conditions throughout much of the study necessitated ongoing adjustments to the original stocking rates and, as a result, drought was the major influence on the dynamics of H. contortus populations. Plant density and basal area in the silver-leaved ironbark landscape were consistently higher than those in the narrow-leaved ironbark landscape. There was limited evidence of any impact by either light or moderate stocking rate but there was evidence of an impact at the heaviest stocking rate. There was minimal impact of legume oversowing. Relatively large fluctuations in plant density occurred during this study resulting from the death of existing plants, due mainly to drought, and seedling recruitment. Similarly, there were relatively large fluctuations in basal area caused mainly by changes in plant size. Rates for turnover of plant numbers were relatively high whereas plant turnover rates of basal areas were relatively low. Regular seedling recruitment appeared necessary to ensure the persistence of this species. Despite the high turnover, populations were maintained at reasonable levels indicating the overall resilience of H. contortus.

Recovery and succession in a multi-species tropical seagrass meadow following experimental disturbance: the role of sexual and asexual reproduction

Recolonisation and succession in a multi-species tropical seagrass meadow was examined by creating gaps (50×50 cm) in the meadow and manipulating the supply of sexual and asexual propagules. Measurements of leaf shoot density and estimates of above-ground biomass were conducted monthly to measure recovery of gaps between September 1995 and November 1997. Measurements of the seeds stored in the sediment (seed bank) and horizontal rhizome growth of colonising species were also conducted to determine their role in the recovery process. Asexual colonisation through horizontal rhizome growth from the surrounding meadow was the main mechanism for colonisation of gaps created in the meadow. The seed bank played no role in recolonisation of cleared plots. Total shoot density and above-ground biomass (all species pooled) of cleared plots recovered asexually to the level of the undisturbed controls in 10 and 7 months, respectively. There was some sexual recruitment into cleared plots where asexual colonisation was prevented but seagrass abundance (shoot density and biomass) did not reach the level of unmanipulated controls. Seagrass species did not appear to form seed banks despite some species being capable of producing long-lived seeds. The species composition of cleared plots remained different to the undisturbed controls throughout the 26-month experiment. Syringodium isoetifolium was a rapid asexual coloniser of disturbed plots and remained at higher abundances than in the control treatments for the duration of the study. S. isoetifolium had the fastest horizontal rhizome growth of species asexually colonising cleared plots (6.9 mm day−1). Halophila ovalis was the most successful sexual coloniser but was displaced by asexually colonising species. H. ovalis was the only species observed to produce fruits during the study. Small disturbances in the meadow led to long-term (>2 years) changes in community composition. This study demonstrated that succession in tropical seagrass communities was not a deterministic process. Variations in recovery observed for different tropical seagrass communities highlighted the importance of understanding life history characteristics of species within individual communities to effectively predict their response to disturbance. A reproductive strategy involving clonal growth and production of long-lived, locally dispersed seeds is suggested which may provide an evolutionary advantage to plants growing in tropical environments subject to temporally unpredictable major disturbances such as cyclones

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 3. Dynamics of Aristida spp. populations

The dynamics of the unpalatable Aristida spp. (wiregrasses) were measured in a subset of treatments contained within an extensive grazing study conducted between 1990 and 1996 in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland. This paper reports the results from these treatments which included 2 land classes (silver-leaved and narrowleaved ironbark), 3 stocking rates (0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 beasts/ha) in both native pasture and legumeoversown native pasture, all in the absence of fire. Changes in plant density and basal area of Aristida spp. reflected differences in both the survival and size of existing plants together with a large seedling recruitment in 1991. Two different taxa of Aristida spp. were distinguished; however, there were no clear differences in the response of these 2 taxa to the treatments. Grazing had the greatest impact on population dynamics through reducing basal area as stocking rate increased. Neither landscape position nor legume oversowing had a major impact on Aristida spp. The results suggest that populations of Aristida spp. will be highest under light grazing and that seedling recruitment may be episodic

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

The original native pasture ecosystems of the eastern and western Darling Downs - Can they be restored?

The original pasture ecosystems of southern inland Queensland ranged from treeless grasslands on cracking clays through grassy woodlands of varying density on a great range of soil types to those competing at the dynamic edges of forests and scrubs. Fire, both wild and aboriginal-managed, was a major factor, along with rainfall extremes, in shaping the pastures and tree:grass balance. Seedling recruitment was driven by rainfall extremes, availability of germinable seed and growing space, with seed availability and space being linked to the timing and intensity of recent fires and rain. The impact of insects, diseases, severe wind and hailstorms on recruitment should not be underestimated. The more fertile soils had denser grass growth, greater fire frequency and thinner tree cover than infertile soils, except where trees were so dense that grass growth was almost eliminated. The pastures were dominated by perennial tussock grasses of mid-height but included a wide array of minor herbaceous species whose abundance was linked to soil type and recent seasonal conditions. Many were strongly perennial with Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, Cyperaceae and Goodeniaceae most common in an environment, which can experience effective rainfall at any time of year. The former grassland communities that are now productive farming lands are not easily returned to their original composition. However, conservation of remnant examples of original pasture types is very achievable provided tree density is controlled, prescribed burning and grazing are used and rigorous control of invasive, exotic species is undertaken. This should be done with a clear understanding that significant short-and medium-term fluctuations in botanical composition are normal.

Melaleuca densispicata in Currawinya National Park, South-West Queensland: Ecology and preliminary implications for management of a rare plant species

Melaleuca densispicata Byrnes is an uncommon species with a limited distribution, comprising disjunct populations in inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, Australia. It is a dense, woody shrub, 2–4 m in height, which exhibits a marked 'clumping' growth habit. It has thick, papery bark and displays many white flowers during spring or early summer. Although it has long been known to exist, M. densispicata was only formally described in 1984, and very little is currently known about its ecology or specific management requirements. There are only seven known subpopulations of the species across its range. A major population at the western limit of its distribution occurs on Currawinya National Park (28°52'S, 144°30'E). Here, it is locally abundant and listed as a noteworthy plant species under the Management Plan (Queensland Parks & Wildlife Service 2001). This study aimed to identify patterns in the distribution of M. densispicata in Currawinya National Park, describe its ecological niche and role, and provide management recommendations for the species within the study area. Recent anecdotal observations of recruitment failure in south-western Queensland (Peter McRae, QPWS, October 2004, pers. comm.; Dick O'Connell, local grazier, July 2005 pers. comm.) caused additional emphasis to be placed on the examination of recruitment and recruitment factors.

Fostering interpersonal trust on social media: Physicians' perspectives and experiences

Background The problem of developing and sustaining mutual trust is one of the main barriers to knowledge sharing on social media platforms such as blogs, wikis, micro-blogs and social networking websites. While many studies argue that mutual trust is necessary for online communication and knowledge sharing, few have actually explored and demonstrated how physicians can establish and sustain trusted relationships on social media. Objectives To identify approaches through which physicians establish interpersonal trust on social media. Methods Twenty-four physicians, who were active users of social media, were interviewed using a semi-structured approach between 2013 and 2014. Snowball sampling was employed for participant recruitment. The data were analysed using a thematic analysis approach. Results Physicians trust their peers on social media in a slightly different way than in face-to-face communication. The study found that the majority of participants established trust on social media mainly through previous personal interaction, authenticity and relevancy of voice, professional standing, consistency of communication, peer recommendation, and non-anonymous and moderated sites. Conclusions Healthcare professionals need to approach social media carefully when using it for knowledge sharing, networking and developing trusted relations with like-minded peers.

The effect of habitat and environmental history on otolith chemistry of barramundi Lates calcarifer in estuarine populations of a regulated tropical river

We examine the microchemistry of otoliths of cohorts of a fished shed population of the large catadromous fish, barramundi Lates calcarifer from the estuary of a large tropical river. Barramundi from the estuary of the large, heavily regulated Fitzroy River, north eastern Australia were analysed by making transects of 87Sr/86Sr isotope and trace metal/Ca ratios from the core to the outer edge. Firstly, we examined the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca and Mn/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios in otoliths of barramundi tagged in either freshwater or estuarine habitats that were caught by the commercial fishery in the estuary. We used 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios to identify periods of freshwater residency and assess whether trace metal/Ca ratios varied between habitats. Only Sr/Ca consistently varied between known periods of estuarine or freshwater residency. The relationships between trace metal/Ca and river flow, salinity, temperature were examined in fish tagged and recaptured in the estuary. We found weak and inconsistent patterns in relationships between these variables in the majority of fish. These results suggest that both individual movement history within the estuary and the scale of environmental monitoring were reducing our ability to detect any patterns. Finally, we examined fish in the estuary from two dominant age cohorts (4 and 7 yr old) before and after a large flood in 2003 to ascertain if the flood had enabled fish from freshwater habitats to migrate to the estuary. There was no difference in the proportion of fish in the estuary that had accessed freshwater after the flood. Instead, we found that larger individuals with each age cohort were more likely to have spent a period in freshwater. This highlights the need to maintain freshwater flows in rivers. About half the fish examined had accessed freshwater habitats before capture. Of these, all had spent at least their first two months in marine salinity waters before entering freshwater and some did not enter freshwater until four years of age. This contrasts with the results of several previous studies in other parts of the range that found that access to freshwater swamps by larval barramundi was important for enhanced population productivity and recruitment.

Post-industrial Intervention : An Activity-Theoretical Expedition Tracing the Proximal Development of Forms of Conducting Interventions

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