Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers: A unifying approach

We propose new spanning tests that assess if the initial and additional assets share theeconomically meaningful cost and mean representing portfolios. We prove their asymptoticequivalence to existing tests under local alternatives. We also show that unlike two-step oriterated procedures, single-step methods such as continuously updated GMM yield numericallyidentical overidentifyng restrictions tests, so there is arguably a single spanning test.To prove these results, we extend optimal GMM inference to deal with singularities in thelong run second moment matrix of the influence functions. Finally, we test for spanningusing size and book-to-market sorted US stock portfolios.

New findings regarding return autocorrelation anomalies and the importance of non-trading periods

In this paper, differences in return autocorrelation across weekdays havebeen investigated. Our research provides strong evidence of the importanceon non-trading periods, not only weekends and holidays but also overnightclosings, to explain return autocorrelation anomalies. While stock returnsare highly autocorrelated, specially on Mondays, when daily returns arecomputed on a open-to-close basis, they do not exhibit any significantlevel of autocorrelation. Our results are compatible with theinformation processing hypotheses as an explanation of the weekendeffect.

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.

Abnormal Return of Dividend Announcements during a Boom and a Recession. Empirical evidence from the years of 2002 - 2002 and 2005 - 2007, including the Finnish extra dividends

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia epänormaalien tuottojen esiintymistä nousu- ja laskusuhdanteen aikana osingonilmoituspäivän ympärillä. Osinkoilmoitukset ovat kerätty Yhdysvaltojen markkinalta (NYSE) ajanjaksoilta 2000 - 2002, jolloin pörssit laskivat teknokuplan jälkeen ja 2005 - 2007, jolloin sijoittajat kokivat suuria kurssivoittoja. Osinkoilmoitushavainnot koostuvat yhtiöistä, jotka nostivat tai pitivät osinko per osake paikallaan. Tavoitteena on tutkia eroja epänormaaleissa tuotoissa näiden kahden ajanjakson välillä. Toiseksi, tavoitteena on tutkia miten epänormaalit tuotot poikkeavat toisistaan eri osinkotuottoluokissa. Kolmanneksi, tavoitteena on tutkia esiintyikö markkinoilla epänormaaleja tuottoja kun suomalaiset yritykset ilmoittivat ylimääräisistä osingoista, pääasiassa vuonna 2004. Yksinkertaisesti ja lyhyesti sanottuna tavoitteena on tutkia arvostavatko sijoittajat osinkoja enemmän laskukauden vai nousukauden aikana. Rahoitusteorian mukaan sijoittajien tulisi arvostaa laskukauden aikana enemmän yhtiöitä, jotka pystyvät maksamaan huonosta taloustilanteesta huolimatta hyvää osinkoa. Empiiriset testit Yhdysvalloista osoittavat, että osingon nostamisesta johtuvat epänormaalit tuotot olivat suuremmat laskusuhdanteen aikana kuin noususuhdanteen aikana. Tämä on linjassa teorian kanssa. Osingon-nostot aiheuttivat nousukauden aikana vähäisiä epänormaaleja tuottoja. Selviä eroja eri osingontuottoluokkien välillä ei pystytty havaitsemaan. Tulokset yhdistetystä aineistosta osoittavat, että sijoittajat kokivat vähäisiä positiivisia epänormaaleja tuottoja laskukauden aikana. Nousukautena tuotot olivat lähellä nollaa. Suomen markkinoilla havaittiin selvä epänormaalituotto osingonilmoituspäivänä. Tulokset ovat pääpiirteittäin linjassa teorian kanssa. Sijoittajat arvostavat osinkoja hieman enemmän lasku- kuin noususuhdanteen aikana.

Performance persistence of equity funds in the Russian stock market

This thesis investigates performance persistence among the equity funds investing in Russia during 2003-2007. Fund performance is measured using several methods including the Jensen alpha, the Fama-French 3- factor alpha, the Sharpe ratio and two of its variations. Moreover, we apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimation in performance measurement and evaluate its usefulness compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. The pattern of performance persistence is analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation test, cross-sectional regression analysis and stacked return time series. Empirical results indicate that the Bayesian shrinkage estimates may provide better and more accurate estimates of fund performance compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. Secondly, based on the results it seems that the degree of performance persistence is strongly related to length of the observation period. For the full sample period the results show strong signs of performance reversal whereas for the subperiod analysis the results indicate performance persistence during the most recent years.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

Added Value of Combining Value and Momentum Indicators in the Swiss Stock Market

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the added value of combining value and momentum indicators in the Swiss stock exchange. Value indicators employed are P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/CF, P/B ja P/S. Momentum indicators examined are 52-week high, acceleration rate, 12-month past return and 6-month past return. The thesis examines whether the composite value measures based on the above mentioned ratios can add value and whether the inclusion of momentum can further improve the risk return profile of the value portfolios. The data is gathered from the Swiss equity market during the sample period from May 2001 to May 2011. Previous studies have shown that composite value measures can somewhat add value to the value portfolio strategy. Similarly, recent academic literature have found evidence that momentum works well as a timing indicator for time to entry to value stocks. This study indicates that the added value of composite value measures exists. It also shows that momentum combined to acceleration rate can significantly improve the risk adjusted performance of value-only portfolios.

Stock Repurchase Authorizations - Finnish Companies

The aim of this study is to examine the abnormal market reaction caused by share repurchase authorizations. We study this abnormal reaction from five different angles. First four concentrate on average abnormal returns while the fifth concentrates on cumulative abnormal return. Data consists of 508 share repurchase authorization from Finnish stock market. Event study methodology is used to examine the stock price reaction and regression analysis is used to find correlation between actual buybacks and abnormal returns. The empirical results show that markets do usually react positively to share repurchase authorizations. There are some differences depending which of the five angles the abnormal returns are being examined. Statistically we can confirm that some authorization give positive reaction while others do not. Also we didn’t find a statistically significant positive correlation between actual buybacks and abnormal returns.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

Stock Price Reactions on M&A, Dividends and Game Releases. Evidence from Gaming Industry.

A rapidly growing gaming industry, which specializes on PC, console, online and other games, attracts attention of investors and analysts, who try to understand what drives changes of the gaming industry companies’ stock prices. This master thesis shows the evidence that, besides long-established types of events (M&A and dividend payments), the companies’ stock price changes depend on industry-specific events. I analyzed specific for gaming industry events - game releases with respect to its subdivisions: new games-sequels, games ratings and subdivision according to a developer of a game (self-developed by publisher or outsourced). The master thesis analyzes stock prices of 55 companies from gaming industry from all over the world. The research period covers 5 year, spreading from April 2008 to April 2013. Executed with an event study method, results of the research show that all the analyzed events types have significant influence on the stock prices of the gaming industry companies. The current master thesis suggests that acquisitions in the industry affect positively bidders’ and targets’ stock prices. Mergers events cause positive stock price reactions as well. But dividends payments and game releases events influence negatively on the stock prices. Game releases’ effect is up to -2.2% of cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) drop during the first ten days after the game releases. Having researched different kinds of events and identified the direction of their impact, the current paper can be of high value for investors, seeking profits in the gaming industry, and other interested parties.

Interdependence of International Stock Markets, European Government Bond Market and Gold Market

This thesis examines the interdependence of international stock markets (the USA, Europe, Japan, emerging markets, and frontier markets), European government bond market, and gold market during the 21st century. Special focus is on the dynamics of the correlations between the markets, as well as on, spillovers in mean returns and volatility. The mean return spillovers are examined on the basis of the bivariate VAR(1) model, whereas the bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model is employed for the analysis of the volatility spillovers. In order to analyze the spillover effects in different market conditions, the full sample period from 2000 to 2013 is divided into the pre-crisis period (2000–2006) and the crisis period (2007–2013). The results indicate an increasing interdependence especially within international stock markets during the periods of financial turbulence, and are thus consistent with the existing literature. Hence, bond and gold markets provide the best diversification benefits for equity investors, particularly during the periods of market turmoil.