Mutual Fund Performance and the Market Timing Ability - Finnish Evidence

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the performance of Finnish equity funds and their market timing ability. Fund performance is evaluated by using annual returns and various risk-adjusted measures, including Sharpe ratio, DDSR, SKASR, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha, whereas portfolio manager’s timing ability is examined with Treynor-Mazuy model and Henriksson-Merton model. The data is collected from the Finnish fund market during the sample period from January 1997 to February 2010. Results show that Finnish equity funds have been able to outperform the market return on a risk-adjusted basis, but these results are influenced heavily by the exceptionally good performance during the IT-bubble. Market timing models show that fund managers have been, to some degree, able to time the market but not a single fund have been able to possess security selection ability and market timing ability simultaneously.

Use of preclinical and early clinical data for dose selection of a selective estrogen receptor modulator toremifene in treatment of breast cancer

In development of human medicines, it is important to predict early and accurately enough the disease and patient population to be treated as well as the effective and safe dose range of the studied medicine. This is pursued by using preclinical research models, clinical pharmacology and early clinical studies with small sample sizes. When successful, this enables effective development of medicines and reduces unnecessary exposure of healthy subjects and patients to ineffectice or harmfull doses of experimental compounds. Toremifene is a selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) used for treatment of breast cancer. Its development was initiated in 1980s when selection of treatment indications and doses were based on research in cell and animal models and on noncomparative clinical studies including small number of patients. Since the early development phase, the treatment indication, the patient population and the dose range were confirmed in large comparative clinical studies in patients. Based on the currently available large and long term clinical study data the aim of this study was to investigate how the early phase studies were able to predict the treatment indication, patient population and the dose range of the SERM. As a conclusion and based on the estrogen receptor mediated mechanism of action early studies were able to predict the treatment indication, target patient population and a dose range to be studied in confirmatory clinical studies. However, comparative clinical studies are needed to optimize dose selection of the SERM in treatment of breast cancer.

Varallisuudenhoito indeksiosuusrahastoilla

Tämä Pro gradu–työ on käytännönläheinen sijoittajalähtöinen tutkimus varallisuudenhoidosta indeksiosuusrahastoilla. Tavoitteena on selvittää indeksiosuusrahastojen olemusta, niiden hyötyjä sekä mahdollisia haittapuolia. Toisena tavoitteena on rakentaa indeksiosuusrahastoista aikaisemman tutkimuksen pohjalta mallisalkku. Kolmantena tavoitteena on luoda Excelin portfolio-optimoinnilla salkku, jossa tutkitaan indeksiosuusrahastojen suoriutumista markkinoilla. Tämä optimointimetodi on rakennettu Mika Vaihekosken (2002) mukaan. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on empiirinen tutkimus. Tarkastelen aihetta pääosin liiketaloustieteellisestä näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksessa käytetään myös paljon rahoitusmarkkinalähtöistä näkökulmaa. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kolmestakymmenestäneljästä Yhdysvaltain markkinoiden osake-, joukkovelkakirja- sekä raaka-aineindeksiosuusrahastosta. Aineisto on vuosilta 2006 – 2011 sisältäen 34x69 havaintoa. Portfolio-optimoinnissa käytetään neljää hyperbola-kerrointa. Empiiristen tutkimustulosten mukaan indeksiosuusrahastojen menneisyyden hyvät tuotot ennustaisivat hyvin tulevaisuuden hyviä tuottoja ainakin tämän tutkimuksen aikavälillä tammikuusta 2006 syyskuuhun 2011. Valinta-aikavälin 2006 – 2008 aineistosta muodostettu tangenttiportfolio menestyi suhteellisen hyvin hallussapitoaikavälillä 2009 – 2011. Tangenttiportfolio osoittautui ainakin tässä tutkielmassa käyttökelpoiseksi työkaluksi indeksiosuusrahastojen varallisuudenhallinnassa.

Dynamic Ownership in Family Business System – A Portfolio Business Approach

Family businesses are among the longest-lived most prevalent institutions in the world and they are an important source of economic development and growth. Ownership is a key to the business life of the firm and also one main key in family business definition. There is only a little portfolio entrepreneurship or portfolio business research within family business context. The absence of empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between family ownership and portfolio development presents an important gap in the family business literature. This study deals with the family business ownership changes and the development of portfolios in the family business and it is positioned in to the conversation of family business, growth, ownership, management and strategy. This study contributes and expands the existing body of theory on family business and ownership. From the theoretical point of view this study combines insights from the fields of portfolio entrepreneurship, ownership, and family business and integrate them. This crossfertilization produces interesting empirical and theoretical findings that can constitute a basis for solid contributions to the understanding of ownership dynamics and portfolio entrepreneurship in family firms. The research strategy chosen for this study represents longitudinal, qualitative, hermeneutic, and deductive approaches.The empirical part of study is using a case study approach with embedded design, that is, multiple levels of analysis within a single study. The study consists of two cases and it begins with a pilot case which will form a preunderstanding on the phenomenon. Pilot case develops the methodology approach to build in the main case and the main case will deepen the understanding of the phenomenon. This study develops and tests a research method of family business portfolio development focusing on investigating how ownership changes are influencing to the family business structures over time. This study reveals the linkages between dimensions of ownership and how they give rise to portfolio business development within the context of the family business. The empirical results of the study suggest that family business ownership is dynamic and owners are using ownership as a tool for creating business portfolios.

Innovation Project Portfolio Management

Companies today are forced to innovate in order to remain within business. Such innovation projects undertaken by the companies are defined in this study as creative ideas which have been managed through “Stage-Gate” innovation process. This process is used to manage innovation projects as they proceed from being newly created to ready for launching/implementing. This has ensured that the companies manage the innovation project right. However, with so many new creative ideas the companies can come up within limited resources, the companies must rely on Innovation Project Portfolio Management (IPPM) to ensure that they are managing only the right innovation projects. Although, there are many tools and techniques available for use within Project Portfolio Management, there is still no consensus on which are the most effective and no standard framework has been established especially for IPPM. Thus, this study proposes a practical framework for which individual innovative organization can follow as a guideline to manage its innovation project portfolio. The study theoretically first addresses the key differences between project portfolio management of innovation projects and other traditional projects - one of which is the stage nature of innovation projects due to their unclear objectives from the beginning compare to clearly established objectives of traditional projects. Secondly, different tools and techniques which can be used are examined based on the three goals of IPPM: (1) Maximizing the Value of Innovation Project Portfolio: Financial Methods, Decision Trees, Scoring Models and Checklists; (2) Balancing Innovation Project Portfolio: Visual Representations; and (3) Aligning Innovation Project Portfolio with Strategy: Bottom-Up (Scoring Models with Strategic Criteria) and Top-Down (Strategic Buckets). Finally, the two approaches in which IPPM can be integrated with Stage-Gate innovation process are discussed: (1) Gates- Dominated; and (2) Portfolio Reviews-Dominated. Practically, this study investigates IPPM of a case organization, and through analysis of the case study results proposes a practical framework for case organization to improve its current management of innovation project portfolio. This framework is then generalized to propose a final practical framework or guideline for which an innovative organization can follow to manage its innovation project portfolio.

IT Investment Portfolio Management Over Joint Ventures: Case Study in a Multinational Oil & Gas Company

With information technology (IT) playing an increasing important role in driving the business, the value of IT investment is often challenged because not all of those investment decisions are made in a reasonable way or aligned with business strategies. IT investment portfolio management (PfM) is an effective way to prioritize and select the right IT projects to invest in, by taking all the project proposals into consideration as a whole, based on their business value, risks, costs, and interrelationships. There are different decision models to prioritise projects, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most commonly-used methods and is discussed in this master thesis. At the same time, there are IT projects on different levels for a multinational company, from global to local. For instance, many of them are probably proposed by joint ventures on local level. In the oil & gas industry, joint ventures are often formed especially in the area of the upstream (exploration & production). How to involve those projects into the IT investment PfM approach of the parent company is a challenge, because the parent company cannot make the decisions on its own. It needs to prioritize all projects in an adequate way, communicate with JVs and influence them. Also, different control levels on JVs need to be considered. This paper hence attempts to introduce a tailored approach of IT investment PfM for a multinational oil & gas company to address the issues around JVs.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

Hedge-rahastojen menestyksen pysyvyyden empiirinen tarkastelu sijoittajan näkökulmasta

This study examines performance persistence of hedge funds from investor's point of view and look at the methods by which an investor could choose the successful hedge funds to the portfolio. This study was used the data from HFI & Tremont databases on period 1998-2007. In this study used the 36-month combination (24-month selection and 12-month prediction periods). As the research methods used the Sharpe index, raw returns, MVR (mean variance ratio), GSC-clustering, the SDI index and the new combination of metrics. The evaluation criterions of the results used the volatility, excess returns and the Sharpe index. This study compared different results from the 7 time series with each other, and commenting the problems on a portfolio loss of funds.

Acquisition target selection of a serial acquirer : case KONE Oyj

Acquisitions are a way for a company to grow, enter new geographical areas, buy out competition or diversify. Acquisitions have recently grown in both size and value. Despite of this, only approximately 25 percent of acquisitions reach their targets and goals. Companies making serial acquisitions seem to be exceptionally successful and succeed in the majority of their acquisitions. The main research question this study aims to answer is: “What issues impact the selection of acquired companies from the point of view of a serial acquirer? The main research question is answered through three sub questions: “What is a buying process for a serial acquirer like?”, “What are the motives for a serial acquirer to buy companies?” and “What is the connection between company strategy and serial acquisitions?”. The case company KONE is a globally operating company which mainly produces and maintains elevators and escalators. Its headquarter is located in Helsinki, Finland. The company has a long history of making acquisitions and does 20- 30 acquisitions a year. By a key person interview, the acquisition process of the case company is compared with the literature about successful serial acquirers. The acquisition motives in this case are reflected upon three of the acquisition motive theories by Trautwein: efficiency theory, monopoly theory and valuation theory. The linkage between serial acquisitions and company strategy is studied through the key person interview. The main research findings are that the acquisition process of KONE is compatible with a successful acquisition process recognized in literature (RAID). This study confirms the efficiency theory as an acquisition motive and more closely the operational synergies. The monopoly theory can only vaguely be supported by this study, but cannot be totally rejected because of the structure of the industry. The valuation theory does not get any support in this study and can therefore be rejected. The linkage between company strategy and serial acquisitions is obvious and making acquisitions can be seen as growth strategy and a part of other company strategies.

E-business solutions as a part of a customer service portfolio

Tässä työssä tutkittiin sähköisen liiketoiminnan palveluiden tarvetta kartonkiteollisuudessa. Palveluiden tarvetta ja sisältöä tutkittiin suomalaisessa metsäteollisuusyrityksessä. Tutkimus suoritettiin teemahaastatteluin ja sitä täydennettiin tekemällä yritys case. Tutkimuksen pohjana toimi esiselvitys, jossa muutamia sähköisen liiketoiminnan palveluita oli tunnistettu. Sähköisen liiketoiminnan palveluiden on havaittu lisääntyneen merkittävästi yritystenvälisessä liiketoiminnassa. Kuluttajakaupassa sähköisen liiketoiminnan palvelut ovat olleet jo pitkään käytössä. Sähköisen kaupankäynnin lisääntyminen on ajanut yrityksiä perustamaan sähköisiä kauppapaikkoja, modernisoimaan toimitusmallejaan tai palvelukonseptejaan sekä huomioimaan sähköisen tiedonvaihdon vaikutuksia liiketoimissaan. Tutkimuksen tulokset johtivat kolmeen johtopäätökseen. Tutkimus osoitti, että sähköisen liiketoiminnan palvelut ovat osa nykyaikaista yritystenvälistä liiketoimintaa. Palveluita on olemassa ja niitä on tarjolla yrityksen kilpailijoiden toimesta maailmanlaajuisesti. Toiseksi tutkimus osoitti, että toimitusketjun tulevaisuus on palveluiden kehittämisessä ja niiden rakentamisessa. Kartonkituotteet lähenevät toisiaan laadullisesti kokoajan, sähköiset palvelut voivat tuoda kilpailuetua ja niiden avulla voidaan erottua markkinoilla. Kolmanneksi, sähköiseen liiketoimintaan on panostettava ja palveluita on rakennettava toimitusmalleja tukevaksi. Palveluiden sisällön on huomioitava asiakastarpeet.

Purchasing portfolio analysis and supplier classification

The purpose of the thesis is to classify suppliers and to enhance strategic purchasing in the case company. Supplier classification is conducted to fulfill the requirements of the company quality manual and international quality standards. To gain more benefit, a strategic purchasing tool, Kraljic’s purchasing portfolio and analytical hierarchy process are utilized for the base of supplier classification. Purchasing portfolio is used to give quick and easy visual insight on product group management form the viewpoint of purchasing. From the base on purchasing portfolio alternative purchasing and supplier strategies can be formed that enhance the strategic orientation of purchasing. Thus purchasing portfolio forces the company to orient on proactive and strategic purchasing. As a result a survey method for implementing purchasing portfolio in the company is developed that exploits analytical hierarchy process. Experts from the company appoint the categorization criteria and in addition, participate in the survey to categorize product groups on the portfolio. Alternative purchasing strategies are formed. Suppliers are classified depending on the importance and characteristics of the product groups supplied.

The key practices of customer portfolio management (CPM) process in the medical and healthcare B2B industry

The goal of this study is to deepen the understanding of the customer portfolio management process. There are many models for the process, and they are not necessarily exclusive of each other. Consequently, the inclusion of many models might even prove out to be beneficial. Other theoretical framework include the current economical situation and its propose on customer portfolio management. With an understanding of the theoretical models as a background, the empirical part of this study compares Finnish multinational medical and healthcare technology companies’ customer portfolio management practices. The empirical research was carried out with theme interviews held with 11 sales and marketing managers or directors from four different companies. The goal was to discover the most essential practices of the process steps in the companies. The result of this study is that there is a lack of systematic customer portfolio management, but most companies are aiming to improve this in the near future. The most essential practices are analysis of sales, communication level, learning, and commitment to strategy of the focal company. Special characteristics of this industry include large business networks that include customers, professional end-users, institutions, universities, researchers, and key opinion leaders. The management and analysis of this comprehensive network has been seen to be extremely important for this industry.

A quality and cost approach for welding process selection

The aim of this work was to propose, apply and evaluate a methodical approach to select welding processes in a productive environment based on market requirements of Quality and Costs. A case study was used. The welds were carried out in laboratory, simulating the joint conditions of a manufacturer and using several welding processes: SMAW, GTAW, pulsed GTAW, GMAW with CO2 and Ar based shielding gases and pulsed GMAW. For Quality analysis geometrical aspects of the beads were considered and for Cost analysis, welding parameters and consumable prices. Quantitative indices were proposed and evaluated. After that, evaluation of both Quality and Costs was done, showing to be possible to select the most suitable welding process to a specific application, taking into account the market conditions of a company.