Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Technology roadmap for new sales support and management system for crane manufacturing company

Sales configurators are essential tools for companies that offer complicated case specifically crafted products for customers. Most sophisticated of them are able to design an entire end product on the fly according to given constraints, calculate price for the offer and move the order into production. This thesis covers a sales configurator acquisition project in a large industrial company that offers cranes for its customers. The study spans the preliminary stages of a large-scale software purchase project starting from the specification of problem domain and ending up presenting the most viable software solution that fulfils the requirements for the new system. The project consists of mapping usage environment, use cases, and collecting requirements that are expected from the new system. The collected requirements involve fitting the new sales system into enterprise application infrastructure, mitigating the risks involved in the project and specifying new features to the application whilst preserving all of the admired features of the old sales system currently used in the company. The collected requirements were presented to a number of different sales software vendors who were asked to provide solution suggestions that would fulfil all the demands. All of the received solution proposals were exposed to an evaluation to determine the most feasible solutions, and the construction of evaluation criteria itself was a part of the study. The final outcome of this study is a short-list of the most feasible sales configurator solutions together with a description of how software purchase process in large enterprises work, and which aspects should be paid attention in large projects of similar kind.

House heating in Finland and Russia

Achievement of house heating efficiency is one of key questions in building construction field. Finland and nothern part of Russia have similar climate conditions that gives a reason for comparation of their house heating approaches. In this work main questions concerned to house heating energy efficiency are studied, building norms and standards of Russia and Finland are studied and compared from heat storage efficiency point of view, review of statistics is done, some different factors influencing house heating energy efficiency are derived.

Product Data Managemet as a Key Success Factor in After Sales Business

The objective of this master’s thesis is to define Larox´s Product Data present state and future development needs from after sales point of view. In particular the object was to investigate after sales needs, which data related to products need to be managed by using Product Data Management. Empirical material of thesis was collected mainly through interviews, benchmark visits, and personal experience. Among the interviewees were internal stakeholders who are closely related to the product process, as well as external stakeholders. Interviews revealed that each stakeholder group has deviating needs for product data management and that at present all the needs are not met to take the best possible way. The main requirement was availability of up-to-date information, which plays a key role in after sales business. At the end of study is concentrated to find development targets at Larox, especially from after sales point of view. In addition, consideration of how the product data management advantages can utilized in making internal processes more efficient. Development needs are collected together as project descriptions, whose headings are shown at the end of the study.

Perustajaosakkaan velvollisuudet ja liiketoiminta asuntotuotannossa

Tutkimus selvittää asuntorakentamista asuntokauppalain 2 luvun mukaisissa asuntorakentamisprojekteissa. Tutkimuksen kohteena ovat asunto osakeyhtiömuotoisen asuntorakentamisen prosessin ja lainsäädännön tarkasteleminen perustajaosakkaan näkökulmasta, sekä perustajaosakkaan liiketoimintamallit. Lisaksi tutkielma sisältää kansainvälistä vertailua lainsäädännön osalta. Kansainvälinen vertailu keskittyy asuntorakentamisen lainsäädännön eroavaisuuksiin Suomen ja naapurimaiden välillä. Tutkimuksen liiketoimintamalleissa tutustutaan pääsääntöisesti Skanska Oy konsernin toimintaan asuntotuotannossa. Tutkimuksesta selviää, että asuntorakentamisessa perustajaosakas tarvitsee monipuolista lain tuntemusta. Asuntorakentamisprosessi on monta ulottuvuutta sisältävä prosessi, jossa ostajan edut ovat suojattava lain vaatimissa määrin. Lisaksi asunnon ostajat saavat valvoa kollektiivisesti etujaan suhteessa perustajaosakkaaseen. Kansainvälinen vertailu osoittaa Suomen lainsäädännön olevan ostajan suojassa merkittävästi vahvempi, kuin erityisesti itäisten naapurimaidemme lainsäädäntö.

Integrating distributed generation and Smart Grids into single-family house

This study examines Smart Grids and distributed generation, which is connected to a single-family house. The distributed generation comprises small wind power plant and solar panels. The study is done from the consumer point of view and it is divided into two parts. The first part presents the theoretical part and the second part presents the research part. The theoretical part consists of the definition of distributed generation, wind power, solar energy and Smart Grids. The study examines what the Smart Grids will enable. New technology concerning Smart Grids is also examined. The research part introduces wind and sun conditions from two countries. The countries are Finland and Germany. According to the wind and sun conditions of these two countries, the annual electricity production from wind power plant and solar panels will be calculated. The costs of generating electricity from wind and solar energy are calculated from the results of annual electricity productions. The study will also deal with feed-in tariffs, which are supporting systems for renewable energy resources. It is examined in the study, if it is cost-effective for the consumers to use the produced electricity by themselves or sell it to the grid. Finally, figures for both countries are formed. The figures include the calculated cost of generating electricity from wind power plant and solar panels, retail and wholesale prices and feed-in tariffs. In Finland, it is not cost-effective to sell the produced electricity to the grid, before there are support systems. In Germany, it is cost-effective to sell the produced electricity from solar panels to the grid because of feed-in tariffs. On the other hand, in Germany it is cost-effective to produce electricity from wind to own use because the retail price is higher than the produced electricity from wind.

La plaça del Diamant compleix 50 anys. Les influències d'Armand Obiols i de Joan Sales

L'objecte d'estudi d'aquest assaig de recerca en literatura és el de conèixer a fons les influències que rebé Mercè Rodoreda per a la redacció de les variants d'autor de la seva obra mestra 'La plaça del Diamant'. Concretament analitzarem exhaustivament les influències del reconegut escriptor i crític literari Armand Obiols i, així mateix, les de l'editor Joan Sales i Vallès. Per a aquesta fi ens servirem de dos epistolaris recentment publicats: 'Cartes a Mercè Rodoreda' d'Armand Obiols i 'Mercè Rodoreda. Joan Sales. Cartes completes (1960-1983)'.

Consumer valuation of energy-saving features of residential air conditioners with hedonic and choice models

The promotion of energy-efficient appliances is necessary to reduce the energetic and environmental burden of the household sector. However, many studies have reported that a typical consumer underestimates the benefits of energy-saving investment on the purchase of household electric appliances. To analyze this energy-efficiency gap problem, many scholars have estimated implicit discount rates that consumers use for energy-consuming durables. Although both hedonic and choice models have been used in previous studies, a comparison between two models has not yet been done. This study uses point of sale data about Japanese residential air conditioners and estimates implicit discounts rates with both hedonic and choice models. Both models demonstrate that a typical consumer underinvests in energy efficiency. Although choice models estimate a lower implicit discount rate than hedonic models, the latter models estimate the values of other product characteristics more consistently than choice models.

Sales and Operations Planning Implementation

The master’s thesis focused on implementing a sales and operations planning process. The main objectives were to create planning methods and tools for the implementation. The ultimate goal of the process, beyond this master’s thesis, is to balance the supply of products with customer demand, with optimized profitability. The theoretical part focused on giving a thorough view on the sales and operations planning process. The basis for a monthly planning cycle was identified. Methods, tools, and metrics for demand forecasting and operations planning were also introduced. Based on the theoretical part, a method for forecasting, a forecast spreadsheet, and a forecast accuracy metric were designed. A spreadsheet tool and methods were also designed for the monthly planning of production volumes, capacity, and inventory. The implementation progress was reviewed for two product families for three months. The sales and operations planning process was able to successfully identify a demand peak for the product families. Suggestions for the future of sales and operations planning were also made.

Asuntosijoittamisen kilpailukykyisyys eläkesäästämismuotona

Tutkielman tarkoituksena on selvittää asuntosijoittamisen kilpailukykyisyyttä eläkesäästämismuotona. Vertailu tehdään kvantitatiivisena ja vertailukohtana ovat ns. perinteiset eläkesäästämismuodot, kuten rahastosijoitus, osakesijoitus, eläkevakuutus ja pankkitilisijoitus. Vertailu on tehty neljällä eri sijoittajaprofiililla. Profiilit eroavat toisistaan säästöajan ja säästösumman suhteen. Kaikissa tapauksissa kokonaissäästösumma on 36 000 euroa. Asuntosijoituksen lähtökohtana on osakehuoneisto, joka vuokrataan eteenpäin asumiskäyttöön. Asunnon ostoon otetaan pankkilaina, jota maksetaan pois vuokratuloilla sekä omalla osuudella niin, että kuukausittainen omaosuus lainan lyhennyksestä olisi vastaavan suuruinen kuin vaihtoehtoissijoituksen ns. perinteiseen eläkesäästämistuotteeseen. Tutkielmassa esiintyvät laskelmat on tehty Excel-taulukkolaskentaohjelmalla. Analyysissä keskitytään ensisijaisesti analysoimaan verojen ja kaikkien kulujen jälkeistä sijoitusten loppuarvoa, todellista vuosittaista tuottoprosenttia sekä koko sijoitetun pääoman tuottoprosenttia koko sijoitusajalta.

Toiminnanohjausjärjestelmä tarrapainolle

Tämä diplomityö on selostus tarraetikettejä valmistavalle yritykselle talon sisäisesti toteutetusta toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän kehitysprojektista. Projektissa luotiin ohjelmisto tukemaan yrityksen keskeisimpiä toimintoja, kuten myyntiä, asiakkuuksien hallintaa, tuotantoa, materiaalihallintoa sekä johdon päätöksentekoa. Työssä tarkastellaan ensin yrityksen menettelytapoja ja valmistusmenetelmiä, ja kerätään niistä konkreettisia vaatimuksia järjestelmälle. Nämä yhdistetään muista tutkimuksista kerättyihin toiminnanohjausjärjestelmien mahdollisuuksiin ja riskeihin sekä laaditaan näistä projektin tavoitteet. Seuraavaksi käydään läpi toteutuksessa tehdyt suunnitteluratkaisut ja niihin johtaneet seikat. Toteutetut toiminnot ja ominaisuudet esitellään perusteluineen. Lopuksi analysoidaan projektin onnistumista peilaten sitä muihin aiheeseen liittyviin tutkimustuloksiin. Käyttöönottoprosessin vaiheet ja siinä esiintyneet ongelmat käydään myös lyhyesti läpi.

Efficient installed base information management and utilization in global after sales service business

This Master´s thesis explores how the a global industrial corporation’s after sales service department should arrange its installed base management practices in order to maintain and utilize the installed base information effectively. Case company has product-related records, such as product’s lifecycle information, service history information and information about product’s performance. Information is collected and organized often case by case, therefore the systematic and effective use of installed base information is difficult also the overview of installed base is missing. The goal of the thesis study was to find out how the case company can improve the installed base maintenance and management practices and improve the installed base information availability and reliability. Installed base information management practices were first examined through the literature. The empirical research was conducted by the interviews and questionnaire survey, targeted to the case company’s service department. The research purpose was to find out the challenges related to case company´s service department’s information management practices. The study also identified the installed base information needs and improvement potential in the availability of information. Based on the empirical research findings, recommendations for improve installed base management practices and information availability were created. Grounding of the recommendations, the case company is suggested the following proposals for action: Service report development, improving the change management process, ensuring the quality of the product documentation in early stages of product life cycle and decision to improve installed base management practices.

Sales performance measurement and steering in a multinational company

The objective of the study is to find out how sales performance should be measured and how should sales be steered in a multinational company. The beginning of the study concentrates on the literature regarding sales, performance measurement, sales performance measurement, and sales steering. The empirical part of the study is a case study, in which the information was acquired from interviews with the key personnel of the company. The results of the interviews and the revealed problems were analyzed, and comparison for possible solutions was performed. When measuring sales performance, it is important to discover the specific needs and objectives for such a system. Specific needs should be highlighted in the design of the system. The system should be versatile and the structure of the system should be in line with the organizational structure. The role of the sales performance measurement system was seen to be important in helping sales steering. However, the importance of personal management and especially conversations were seen as really critical issue in the steering. Sales performance measurement could be based on the following perspectives: financial, market, customer, people, and future. That way the sales department could react to the environmental changes more rapidly.

Spatial variability of air dry bulb temperature and black globe humidity index in a broiler house during the heating phase

The air dry-bulb temperature (t db),as well as the black globe humidity index (BGHI), exert great influence on the development of broiler chickens during their heating phase. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the structure and the magnitude of the t db and BGHI spatial variability, using geostatistics tools such as semivariogram analysis and also producing kriging maps. The experiment was conducted in the west mesoregion of the states of Minas Gerais in 2010, in a commercial broiler house with heating system consisting of two furnaces that heat the air indirectly, in the firsts 14 days of the birds' life. The data were registered at intervals of five minutes in the period from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. The variables were evaluated by variograms fitted by residual maximum likelihood (REML) testing the Spherical and Exponential models. Kriging maps were generated based on the best model used to fit the variogram. It was possible to characterize the variability of the t db and BGHI, which allowed observing the spatial dependence by using geostatistics techniques. In addition, the use of geostatistics and distribution maps made possible to identify problems in the heating system in regions inside the broiler house that may harm the development of chicks.

Enhancing Collaboration Between Marketing and Sales

Researchers’ interest toward cross-functional relationships has increased over the last decades, indicating the importance of collaboration of different functions. However, marketing-sales relationship has started to interest researchers only recently, even though collaboration between these functions is critical for companies’ success and customer satisfaction. The purpose of this study is to examine how collaboration between marketing and sales can be enhanced, and thus explore marketing-sales relationship and factors influencing on the collaboration between these functions. Literature review of this study draws together relevant literature and research concerning the topic. Empirical part explores marketing-sales relationships in a b-to-b company. The empirical research was conducted through six semi-structured interviews. Interviewees represented three different departments - each department’s marketing and sales manager were interviewed. All the interviewees considered that marketing-sales collaboration within the company should be improved. In the analysis certain factors impeding as well as facilitating the collaboration were recognized. Based on these, and lack of facilitating factors, the marketing-sales relationships within the company were defined as aligned relationships. Consequently, marketing-sales collaboration should be enhanced in all the departments by strengthening the facilitative elements. This study provides an overall view on marketing-sales collaboration, its elements and relationship types. Based on this study one can understand factors influencing on the marketing-sales collaboration and recognize the types of marketing-sales relationship.