Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Varallisuudenhoito indeksiosuusrahastoilla

Tämä Pro gradu–työ on käytännönläheinen sijoittajalähtöinen tutkimus varallisuudenhoidosta indeksiosuusrahastoilla. Tavoitteena on selvittää indeksiosuusrahastojen olemusta, niiden hyötyjä sekä mahdollisia haittapuolia. Toisena tavoitteena on rakentaa indeksiosuusrahastoista aikaisemman tutkimuksen pohjalta mallisalkku. Kolmantena tavoitteena on luoda Excelin portfolio-optimoinnilla salkku, jossa tutkitaan indeksiosuusrahastojen suoriutumista markkinoilla. Tämä optimointimetodi on rakennettu Mika Vaihekosken (2002) mukaan. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on empiirinen tutkimus. Tarkastelen aihetta pääosin liiketaloustieteellisestä näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksessa käytetään myös paljon rahoitusmarkkinalähtöistä näkökulmaa. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kolmestakymmenestäneljästä Yhdysvaltain markkinoiden osake-, joukkovelkakirja- sekä raaka-aineindeksiosuusrahastosta. Aineisto on vuosilta 2006 – 2011 sisältäen 34x69 havaintoa. Portfolio-optimoinnissa käytetään neljää hyperbola-kerrointa. Empiiristen tutkimustulosten mukaan indeksiosuusrahastojen menneisyyden hyvät tuotot ennustaisivat hyvin tulevaisuuden hyviä tuottoja ainakin tämän tutkimuksen aikavälillä tammikuusta 2006 syyskuuhun 2011. Valinta-aikavälin 2006 – 2008 aineistosta muodostettu tangenttiportfolio menestyi suhteellisen hyvin hallussapitoaikavälillä 2009 – 2011. Tangenttiportfolio osoittautui ainakin tässä tutkielmassa käyttökelpoiseksi työkaluksi indeksiosuusrahastojen varallisuudenhallinnassa.

Developing the measurement and management of knowledge: applying the constructive research approach in a knowledge intensive service environment

Intellectual assets have attained continuous attention in the academic field, as they are vital sources of competitive advantage and organizational performance in the contemporary knowledge intensive business environment. Intellectual capital measurement is quite thoroughly addressed in the accounting literature. However, the purpose of the measurement is to support the management of intellectual assets, but the reciprocal relationship between measurement and management has not been comprehensively considered in the literature. The theoretical motivation for this study rose from this paradox, as in order to maximise the effectiveness of knowledge management the two initiatives need to be closely integrated. The research approach of this interventionist case study is constructive. The objective is to develop the case organization’s knowledge management and intellectual capital measurement in a way that they would be closely integrated and the measurement would support the management of intellectual assets. The case analysis provides valuable practical considerations about the integration and related issues as the case company is a knowledge intensive organization in which the know-how of the employees is the central competitive asset and therefore, the management and measurement of knowledge are essential for its future success. The results suggest that the case organization is confronting challenges in managing knowledge. In order to appropriately manage knowledge processes and control the related risks, support from intellectual capital measurement is required. However, challenges in measuring intellectual capital, especially knowledge, could be recognized in the organization. By reflecting the knowledge management situation and the constructed strategy map, a new intellectual measurement system was developed for the case organization. The construction of the system as well as its indicators can be perceived to contribute to the literature, emphasizing of the importance of properly considering the organization’s knowledge situation in developing an intellectual capital measurement system.

Evaluating the Maturity of Data Management Practices in a Major Energy Provider Company

Data is the most important asset of a company in the information age. Other assets, such as technology, facilities or products can be copied or reverse-engineered, employees can be brought over, but data remains unique to every company. As data management topics are slowly moving from unknown unknowns to known unknowns, tools to evaluate and manage data properly are developed and refined. Many projects are in progress today to develop various maturity models for evaluating information and data management practices. These maturity models come in many shapes and sizes: from short and concise ones meant for a quick assessment, to complex ones that call for an expert assessment by experienced consultants. In this paper several of them, made not only by external inter-organizational groups and authors, but also developed internally at a Major Energy Provider Company (MEPC) are juxtaposed and thoroughly analyzed. Apart from analyzing the available maturity models related to Data Management, this paper also selects the one with the most merit and describes and analyzes using it to perform a maturity assessment in MEPC. The utility of maturity models is two-fold: descriptive and prescriptive. Besides recording the current state of Data Management practices maturity by performing the assessments, this maturity model is also used to chart the way forward. Thus, after the current situation is presented, analysis and recommendations on how to improve it based on the definitions of higher levels of maturity are given. Generally, the main trend observed was the widening of the Data Management field to include more business and “soft” areas (as opposed to technical ones) and the change of focus towards business value of data, while assuming that the underlying IT systems for managing data are “ideal”, that is, left to the purely technical disciplines to design and maintain. This trend is not only present in Data Management but in other technological areas as well, where more and more attention is given to innovative use of technology, while acknowledging that the strategic importance of IT as such is diminishing.

Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation

A narrow review on mutual fund performance evaluation methods.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Sellutehtaiden vuosihuoltoseisokkiprosessin hallinta - toimintaohjeen luominen

Päätavoitteena tässä diplomityössä oli löytää parhaat käytännöt vuosihuoltoseisokkien suunnitteluun ja toteutukseen. Parhaita käytäntöjä selvitettiin teorian, yrityksessä aiemmin tuotetun materiaalin, haastatteluiden ja kenttähavaintojen kautta. Niiden pohjalta luotiin yritykselle toimintaohje, jossa on aikataulutettu tarvittavat toimenpiteet sekä näiden toimenpiteiden vastuuhenkilöt vuosihuoltoseisokkiprosessin eri vaiheissa. Diplomityön teoriaosuudessa käsitellään kunnossapitoa, projekteja ja seisokkiteoriaa. Kunnossapidon näkökulmasta suunnitelmallisuus nousee esiin tärkeimpänä, niin lyhyen kuin pitkän tähtäimen suunnittelu. Toinen keskeinen kokonaisuus on tuotanto-omaisuuden hallinta. Projekteja käsitellään kevyesti, sillä seisokkiteoria nojautuu vahvasti projektimaiseen työskentelyyn. Seisokkiteoriassa esitellään erityisesti eri prosessin vaiheiden tehtäviä. Synteesiosuudessa esitellään yritykseen jääneen toimintaohjeen sisältö sallituin osin. Toimintaohjeen vaiheet ovat alullepano, suunnittelu, toteutus sekä lopettaminen ja jälkityöt. Toimintaohjetta hyödyntäen vuosihuoltoseisokit voidaan viedä läpi projektinomaisesti, kuitenkin ajatellen vuosihuoltoseisokkiprosessin jatkuva prosessina, jossa edellisen projektin lopettaminen on uuden aloittamista.

Omaisuuden hallinnan merkitys teollisuusyrityksessä

Kirjallisuustyönä toteutettu kandidaatintyö käsittelee omaisuudenhallinnan merkitystä keskittyen erityisesti teollisuusyrityksien näkökulmiin. Työn tavoitteena on selvittää ja havainnollistaa yleisesti omaisuuden hallinnan merkitystä ja keinoja yritysten näkökulmasta. Työssä perehdytään omaisuudenhallinnan käsitteistöön ja aspekteihin joilla on välitön tai välillinen vaikutus omaisuuden hallinnan tarkoituksen kannalta. Lähestytään teollisuusyritysten omaisuuden hallintaa tuoreimpien tutkimusten ja uusinta omaisuudenhallintaan tarkoitettua PAS-55 standardia apuna käyttäen. Selvitetään miksi omaisuuden hallintaan on tärkeää panostaa ja mitä seurauksia on sitoa tai olla sitomatta voimavaroja omaisuuden hallinnan toimiin. Lopussa kootaan omaisuuden hallinnalliset keinot/toimet tiivistettyyn kokonaisuuteen ja selvennämme mitä vaikutuksia niistä yleisesti arvioidessa on. Arvioimme myös PAS 55 standardin käytettävyyttä teollisuusyrityksen omaisuuden hallintaa toteuttaessa.

The Impact of European Macroeconomic News Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to investigate how CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) stock markets are integrated with Europe as measured by the impact of euro area (EA) scheduled macroeconomic news announcements, which are related to macroeconomic indicators that are commonly used to indicate the direction of the economy. Macroeconomic announcements used in this study can be divided into four categories; (1) prices, (2) real economy, (3) money supply and (4) business climate and consumer confidence. The data set consists of daily market data from CIVETS and scheduled macroeconomic announcements from the EA for the years 2007-2012. The econometric model used in this research is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). Empirical results show diverse impacts of macroeconomic news releases and surprises for different categories of news supporting the perception of heterogeneity among CIVETS. The analyses revealed that in general EA macroeconomic news releases and surprises affect stock market volatility in CIVETS and only in some cases asset pricing. In conclusion, all CIVETS stock markets reacted to the incoming EA macroeconomic news suggesting market integration to some extent. Thus, EA should be considered as a possible risk factor when investing in CIVETS.

Developing Service-based Solutions for Water Treatment in Finnish Mining Industry

The aim of this master’s thesis is to analyze the mining industry customers' current and future needs for the water treatment services and discover new business development opportunities in the context of mine water treatment. In addition, the study focuses on specifying service offerings needed and evaluate suitable revenue generation models for them. The main research question of the study is: What kind of service needs related to water treatment can be identified in the Finnish mining industry? The literature examined in the study focused on industrial service classification and new service development process as well as the revenue generation of services. A qualitative research approach employing a case study method was chosen for the study. The present study uses customer and expert interviews as primary data source, complemented by archival data. The primary data was gathered by organizing total of 13 interviews, and the interviews were analyzed by using qualitative content analysis. The abductive-logic was chosen as the way of conducting scientific reasoning in this study. As a result, new service proposals were developed for Finnish mine industry suppliers. The main areas of development were on asset efficiency services and process support services. The service needs were strongly associated with suppliers’ know-how of water treatment process optimization, cost-effectiveness as well as on alternative technologies. The study provides an insight for managers that wish to pursue a water treatment services as a part of their business offering.

Strategic communication : practice, ideology and dissonance

This dissertation approaches the manifestations of ideology in U.S. Strategic Communication. The discussion approaches Strategic Communication by relating it to the Enlightenment narratives and suggesting these narratives maintain similar social and political functions. This dissertation aims to address the key contents and mechanisms of Strategic Communication by covering the perspectives of (i) communication as leadership as well as (ii) communication as discourse , i.e. practice and contents. Throughout the empirical part of the dissertation, the communication theoretical discussion is supported by a methodological framework that bridges Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) and functional language theory. According to the principles of CDA, Strategic Communication is treated as ideological, hegemonic discourse that impacts social order. The primary method of analysis is transitivity analysis, which is concerned with how language and its patterns construe reality. This analysis is complemented with a discussion on the rituals of production and interpretation, which can be treated as visual extensions of textual transitivity. The concept of agency is the key object of analysis. From the perspective of leadership, Strategic Communication is essentially a leadership model through which the organization defines itself, its aims and legitimacy. This dissertation arrives to the conclusion that Strategic Communication is used not only as a concept for managing Public Relations and information operations. It is an esse ntial asset in the inter-organization management of its members. The current developments indicate that the concept is developing towards even heavier measures of control. From the perspective of language and discourse, the key narratives of Strategic Communication are advocated with the intrinsic values of democracy and technological progress as the prerequisites of ethics and justice. The transitivity patterns reveal highly polarized agency. The agency of the Self is typically outsourced to technology. Further, the transitivity pa tterns demonstrate how the effects-centric paradigm of warfare has created a lexicon that is ideologically exclusive. It has led to the development of two mutually exclusive sets of vocabulary, where the desc riptions of legitimate ac tion exclude Others by default. These ideological discourses have become naturalized in the official vocabulary of strategic planning and le adership. Finally, the analysis of the images of the captures and deaths of Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden and Muammar Gaddafi bring the discussion back to the themes of the Enlightenment by demonstrating how democracy is framed to serve political purposes. The images of democracy are essentially images of violence. Contrary to the official, instrumental and humanitari an narratives of Strategic Communication, it is the grammar of expressive, violent rituals that serve as the instrument of unity.

Barriers of ESCO Service Business in Finland

The purpose of this study is to determine what are the key barriers hampering ESCO service business success in Finland. Research approach for this study is qualitative. Data was collected using Delphi method with two questionnaire rounds. Internet based tool was applied in carrying out questionnaires. Respondents of the questionnaires were ESCO service experts and researchers, and people working for ESCO service providers. Characteristics of ESCO service and ESCO project implementation are analyzed by using transaction costs theory of service business. In terms of ESCO service in Finland, uncertainty and asset specificity are relevant dimensions of TCE. General uncertainty in world’s economy hinders demand for ESCO service, and asset specificity of ESCO contracts induces slight problems for project financiers. Also bounded rationalism and opportunism are present in Finnish ESCO business. The most significant barriers of success of ESCO service in Finland are problems in legislative and political frameworks, and in customers’ investment processes. ESCO service providers should move more strongly towards service dominant business logic and improve understanding of customer needs. Political barriers are unsuitable procurement processes, unclear and unpredictable laws, and lack of compelling factors in subsidy system. Investment process hurdles are caused by customers’ lack of interest to change course of action. These are things in which ESCOs can have influence in.

Profiling the Value of Industrial Maintenance Services

Industrial maintenance can be executed internally, acquired from the original equipment manufacturer or outsourced to a service provider, and this concludes in many different kind of business relationships. To maximize the total value in a maintenance business relationship it is important to know what the partner values. The value of maintenance services can be considered to consist of value elements and the perceived total value for the customer and the service provider is the sum of these value elements. The specific objectives of this thesis are to identify the most important value elements for the maintenance service customer and provider and also to recognize where the value elements differ. The study was executed as a statistical analysis using the survey method. The data has been collected by an online survey sent to 345 maintenance service professionals in Finland. In the survey, four different types of value elements were considered: the customer’s high critical and low critical items and the service provider’s core and support service. The most valued elements by the respondents were reliability, safety at work, environmental safety, and operator knowledge. The least valued elements were asset management factors and access to markets. Statistically significant differences in value elements between service types were also found. As a managerial implication a value gap profile is presented. This Master’s Thesis is part of the MaiSeMa (Industrial Maintenance Services in a Renewing Business Network: Identify, Model and Manage Value) research project where network decision models are created to identify, model and manage the value of maintenance services.

A simulation model of the optimal maintenance strategy: conceptual agent-based approach

In this Master’s thesis agent-based modeling has been used to analyze maintenance strategy related phenomena. The main research question that has been answered was: what does the agent-based model made for this study tell us about how different maintenance strategy decisions affect profitability of equipment owners and maintenance service providers? Thus, the main outcome of this study is an analysis of how profitability can be increased in industrial maintenance context. To answer that question, first, a literature review of maintenance strategy, agent-based modeling and maintenance modeling and optimization was conducted. This review provided the basis for making the agent-based model. Making the model followed a standard simulation modeling procedure. With the simulation results from the agent-based model the research question was answered. Specifically, the results of the modeling and this study are: (1) optimizing the point in which a machine is maintained increases profitability for the owner of the machine and also the maintainer with certain conditions; (2) time-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a zero-sum game between the parties; (3) value-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a win-win game between the parties, if the owners of the machines share a substantial amount of their value to the maintainers; and (4) error in machine condition measurement is a critical parameter to optimizing maintenance strategy, and there is real systemic value in having more accurate machine condition measurement systems.