Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

The governmental organization's role in railway freight market's liberalization -building knowledge through Swedish and Polish operators' experiences

Globalization has increased transport aggregates’ demand. Whilst transport volumes increase, ecological values’im portance has sharpened: carbon footprint has become a measure known world widely. European Union together with other communities emphasizes friendliness to the environment: same trend has extended to transports. As a potential substitute for road transport is noted railway transport, which decreases the congestions and lowers the emission levels. Railway freight market was liberalized in the European Union 2007, which enabled new operators to enter the markets. This research had two main objectives. Firstly, it examined the main market entry strategies utilized and the barriers to entry confronted by the operators who entered the markets after the liberalization. Secondly, the aim was to find ways the governmental organization could enhance its service towards potential railway freight operators. Research is a qualitative case study, utilizing descriptive analytical research method with a normative shade. Empirical data was gathered by interviewing Swedish and Polish railway freight operators by using a semi-structured theme-interview. This research provided novel information by using first-hand data; topic has been researched previously by utilizing second-hand data and literature analyses. Based on this research, rolling stock acquisition, needed investments and bureaucracy generate the main barriers to entry. The research results show that the mostly utilized market entry strategies are start-up and vertical integration. The governmental organization could enhance the market entry process by organizing courses, paying extra attention on flexibility, internal know-how and educating the staff.

Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

VIX as a stock market indicator

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index, often referred as the fear index, measures how much does it cost for investor to protect his/hers S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has succesfull timing coordinator and it has told about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed.

Market of biomass fuels in Finland : IEA Bioenergy Task 40 and EUBIONET III - Country report of Finland 2009

This study considered the current situation of solid and liquid biomass fuels in Finland. The fact that industry consumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production and a high share of solid biomass fuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. Wood is the most important source of bioenergy in Finland, representing 20% of the total energy consumption in 2007. Almost 80% of the woodbased energy is recovered from industrial by-products and residues. As a member of the European Union, Finland has committed itself to the Union’s climate and energy targets, such as reducing its overall emissions of green house gases to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and increasing the share of renewable energy in the gross final consumption. The renewable energy target approved for Finland is 38%. The present National Climate and Energy Strategy was introduced in November 2008. The strategy covers climate and energy policy measures up to 2020, and in brief thereafter, up to 2050. In recent years, the actual emissions have exceeded the Kyoto commitment and the trend of emissions is on the increase. In 2007, the share of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumption was approximately 25% (360 PJ). Without new energy policy measures, the final consumption of renewable energy would increase to 380 PJ, which would be approximately only 31% of the final energy consumption. In addition, green house gas emissions would exceed the 1990 levels by 20%. Meeting the targets will need the adoption of more active energy policy measures in coming years. The international trade of biomass fuels has a substantial importance for the utilisation of bioenergy in Finland. In 2007, the total international trading of solid and liquid biomass fuels was approximately 77 PJ, of which import was 62 PJ. Most of the import is indirect and takes place within the forest industry’s raw wood imports. In 2007, as much as 21% of wood energy was based on foreign-origin wood. Wood pellets and tall oil form the majority of export streams of biomass fuels. The indirect import of wood fuels peaked in 2006 to 61 PJ. The foreseeable decline in raw wood import to Finland will decrease the indirect import of wood fuels. In 2004– 2007, the direct trade of solid and liquid biomass fuels has been on a moderate growth path. In 2007, the import of palm oil and export of bio-diesel emerged, as a large, 170 000 t/yr biodiesel plant came into operation in Porvoo.

Theoretical background for market emergence framework : Case: Electricity Distribution Industry

Both the competitive environment and the internal structure of an industrial organization are typically included in the processes which describe the strategic management processes of the firm, but less attention has been paid to the interdependence between these views. Therefore, this research focuses on explaining the particular conditions of an industry change, which lead managers to realign the firm in respect of its environment for generating competitive advantage. The research question that directs the development of the theoretical framework is: Why do firms outsource some of their functions? The three general stages of the analysis are related to the following research topics: (i) understanding forces that shape the industry, (ii) estimating the impacts of transforming customer preferences, rivalry, and changing capability bases on the relevance of existing assets and activities, and emergence of new business models, and (iii) developing optional structures for future value chains and understanding general boundaries for market emergence. The defined research setting contributes to the managerial research questions “Why do firms reorganize their value chains?”, “Why and how are decisions made?” Combining Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Resource-Based View (RBV) within an integrated framework makes it possible to evaluate the two dimensions of a company’s resources, namely the strategic value and transferability. The final decision of restructuring will be made based on an analysis of the actual business potential of the outsourcing, where benefits and risks are evaluated. The firm focuses on the risk of opportunism, hold-up problems, pricing, and opportunities to reach a complete contract, and finally on the direct benefits and risks for financial performance. The supplier analyzes the business potential of an activity outside the specific customer, the amount of customer-specific investments, the service provider’s competitive position, abilities to revenue gains in generic segments, and long-term dependence on the customer.

Production Cycle Optimization: Defining the Market Potential for a New Planning Tool

An optimization tool has been developed to help companies to optimize their production cycles and thus improve their overall supply chain management processes. The application combines the functionality that traditional APS (Advanced Planning System) and ARP (Automatic Replenishment Program) systems provide into one optimization run. A qualitative study was organized to investigate opportunities to expand the product’s market base. Twelve personal interviews were conducted and the results were collected in industry specific production planning analyses. Five process industries were analyzed to identify the product’s suitability to each industry sector and the most important product development areas. Based on the research the paper and the plastic film industries remain the most potential industry sectors at this point. To be successful in other industry sectors some product enhancements would be required, including capabilities to optimize multiple sequential and parallel production cycles, handle sequencing of complex finishing operations and to include master planning capabilities to support overall supply chain optimization. In product sales and marketing processes the key to success is to find and reach the people who are involved directly with the problems that the optimization tool can help to solve.

Country Risk and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Finnish Stock Markets

The objective of this thesis is to examine the market reaction around earnings announcements in Finnish stock markets. The aim is to find out whether the extreme market conditions during the financial crisis are reflected in stock prices as a stronger reaction. In addition to this, the purpose is to investigate how extensively Finnish listed companies report the country segmentation of revenues in their interim reports and whether the country risk is having a significant impact on perceived market reaction. The sample covers all companies listed in Helsinki stock exchange at 1.1.2010 and these companies’ interim reports from the first quarter of 2008 to last quarter of 2009. Final sample consists of 81 companies and 630 firm-quarter observations. The data sample has been divided in two parts, of which country risk sample contains 17 companies and 127 observations and comparison sample covers 66 companies and 503 observations. Research methodologies applied in this thesis are event study and cross-sectional regression analysis. Empirical results indicate that the market reaction occurs mainly during the announcement day and is slightly stronger in case of positive earnings surprises than the reactions observed in previous studies. In case of negative earnings surprises no significant differences can be observed. In case of country risk sample and negative earnings surprise market reaction is negative already in advance of the disclosure contrary to comparison sample. In case of positive surprise no differences can be observed. Country risk variable developed during this study seems to explain only minor part of the market reaction.

Marketing culture of Finnish research libraries : an analysis of marketing attitude, knowledge and behaviour

The aim of the present dissertation is to investigate the marketing culture of research libraries in Finland and to understand the awareness of the knowledge base of library management concerning modern marketing theories and practices. The study was based onthe notion that a leader in an organisation can have large impact on its culture. Therefore, it was considered important to learn about the market orientation that initiates at the top management and flows throughout the whole organisationthus resulting in a particular kind of library culture. The study attempts to examine the marketing culture of libraries by analysing the marketing attitudes, knowledge (underlying beliefs, values and assumptions), behaviour (market orientation), operational policies and activities, and their service performance (customer satisfaction). The research was based on the assumption that if the top management of libraries has market oriented behaviour, then their marketing attitudes, knowledge, operational policies and activities and service performance should also be in accordance. The dissertation attempts to connect all these theoretical threads of marketing culture. It investigates thirty three academic and special libraries in the south of Finland. The library director and three to ten customers from each library participated as respondents in this study. An integrated methodological approach of qualitative as well as quantitative methods was used to gain knowledge on the pertinent issues lying behind the marketing culture of research libraries. The analysis of the whole dissertation reveals that the concept of marketing has very varied status in the Finnish research libraries. Based on the entire findings, three kinds of marketing cultures were emerged: the strong- the high fliers; the medium- the brisk runners; and the weak- the slow walkers. The high fliers appeared to be modern marketing believers as their marketing approach was customer oriented and found to be closer to the emerging notions of contemporary relational marketing. The brisk runners were found to be traditional marketing advocates as their marketing approach is more `library centred¿than customer defined and thus is in line of `product orientation¿ i.e. traditional marketing. `Let the interested customers come to the library¿ was appeared to be the hallmark of the slow walkers. Application of conscious market orientation is not reflected in the library activities of the slow walkers. Instead their values, ideology and approach to serving the library customers is more in tuneof `usual service oriented Finnish way¿. The implication of the research is that it pays to be market oriented which results in higher customer satisfaction oflibraries. Moreover, it is emphasised that the traditional user based service philosophy of Finnish research libraries should not be abandoned but it needs to be further developed by building a relational based marketing system which will help the libraries to become more efficient and effective from the customers¿ viewpoint. The contribution of the dissertation lies in the framework showing the linkages between the critical components of the marketing culture of a library: antecedents, market orientation, facilitators and consequences. The dissertationdelineates the significant underlying dimensions of market-oriented behaviour of libraries which are namely customer philosophy, inter-functional coordination,strategic orientation, responsiveness, pricing orientation and competition orientation. The dissertation also showed the extent to which marketing attitudes, behaviour, knowledge were related and impact of market orientation on the serviceperformance of libraries. A strong positive association was found to exist between market orientation and marketing attitudes and knowledge. Moreover, it also shows that a higher market orientation is positively connected with the service performance of libraries, the ultimate result being higher customer satisfaction. The analysis shows that a genuine marketing culture represents a synthesis of certain marketing attitudes, knowledge and of selective practices. This finding is particularly significant in the sense that it manifests that marketing culture consists of a certain sets of beliefs and knowledge (which form a specific attitude towards marketing) and implementation of a certain set of activities that actually materialize the attitude of marketing into practice (market orientation) leading to superior service performance of libraries.

Customer relationship management through life cycle analysis, case professional service firm in B2B market

The objective of this master’s thesis was to study how customer relationships should be assessed and categorized in order to support customer relationship management (CRM) in the context of business-to-business (B2B) and professional services. This sophisticated and complex market is utilizing possibilities of CRM only rarely and even then the focus is often on technology. The theoretical part considered first CRM from the value chain point of view and then discussed the cyclical nature of relationships. The case study focused on B2B professional service firm. The data was collected from company databases and included the sample of 90 customers. The research was conducted in three phases first studying the age, then the service type of relationships and finally executing the cluster analysis. The data was analysed by statistical analysis program SAS Enterprise Guide. The results indicate that there are great differences between developments of customer relationships. While some relationships are dynamically growing and changing, most of customers are remaining constant. This implies expectations and requirements of customers are similarly divergent and relationships should be managed accordingly.

The Interplay between Market Orientation and Entrepreneurial Orientation - Empirical Evidence from SMEs

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the dimensions of market orientation and entrepreneurial orientation are carried out in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). In addition, the research aims to answer how these strategic orientations are apparent in SMEs, how the orientations co-vary, and how the dimensions of orientations are carried out in successful SMEs. The qualitative case study was participated by 16 SMEs. The research sample was gathered trough face-to-face interviews, consisting of Likert scale statements and open-ended questions. The main restriction of implementing market and entrepreneurial orientations in SMEs were scarce resources. Thus, the enterprises were required to make trade-offs between the different dimensios of orientations. Risk-aversive enterprises had emphasis on reactive customer orientation whereas, willing to take risks was generally related to proactiveness. Proactive enterprises utilized interfunctional coordination, and innovativeness was supported by value network coordination. The majority of the successful enterprises were growth-oriented, aiming to be technologial leaders in their industries. The successful firms placed similar emphasis on customer and product orientation.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Rocking the Euro boat: scheduled market announcements' effects on Euro implied volatility

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate scheduled market announcements’ effects on Euro implied volatility. Timeline selected for this study ranges from 2005 to 2009. The method chosen is so-called event study approach, in which five days prior to a news announcement stand for a pre-event period, and five days after the announcement form a post-event period. Statistical research method employed is Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test, which examines two evenly-sized distributions’ equality, in this case the distributions being the pre- and post-event periods. Observations are based on daily data of US dollar nominated Euro at-the-money call options. Research results partially back up previous literature’s view of uncertainty increasing prior to the news announcement. After the exact contents of the news is public, uncertainty levels measured by implied volatility tend to lower.

Management of commercial property derived risks in the market context of the Russian Federation

The objective of the thesis is to examine the current state of risk management and to determine an appropriate risk management policy for commercial property derived risks in the Russian branch of a Finnish retail trade company. The employed research methodologies are comparative in-depth interviews and empirical value at risk analysis, including portfolio risk decomposition to determine the inter-currency characteristics. For a multinational retail trade company, the commercial property derived risks open up as a diverse combination of financial and non-financial risks with four distinctive interest groups. The research results indicate that geographical diversification across currency regimes provides diversification benefits. The Russian ruble is the most significant single risk component when considering the net investments outside the euro-zone. Decreasing the Russian ruble and Swedish krona exposures are the most effective methods to reduce translation derived risk. Exchange rate volatility varies over time according to idiosyncratic currency regime characteristics, and cost-effective risk management requires comprehensive analysis of the business environment. Profound and proactive risk management methods are found to be pivotal for companies with cross-border operations in order to succeed among international competitors.