Assessing soil erosion due to land use change at the Alqueva reservoir surrounding area

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Mudanças climáticas e económicas na costa portuguesa: percepções das comunidades, justiça social e democratização

O litoral português, onde se concentra mais de 80% da população e da produção de riqueza do país, é um dos mais vulneráveis da Europa no que respeita à erosão costeira. Queda de arribas, perda de areia das praias e recuo acentuado da linha de costa têm obrigado a avultados investimentos em infra-estruturas e medidas de protecção. Esta concentração populacional na zona litoral ocorreu em apenas algumas décadas, a um ritmo acelerado, perante um sistema institucional e de gestão que se revelou incapaz de restringir a proliferação de construções em áreas de risco. Actualmente, as populações e economias costeiras enfrentam dois enormes desafios: a crise climática e a crise económica. Nas próximas décadas, prevê-se que as alterações climáticas venham acentuar a perda de território pelo recuo da linha de costa, devido a um conjunto de factores, em particular a subida do nível médio do mar. Por outro lado, a crise económica pode inviabilizar a continuação de dispendiosas intervenções para conter o avanço do mar, incluindo a construção de esporões e paredões e o enchimento artificial das praias. Cada vez mais se ponderam estratégias alternativas de adaptação, inclusive a eventual deslocação de populações para áreas mais recuadas. A necessidade de tomar medidas mais drásticas, a génese ilegal de muitas das construções agora em risco na orla costeira, a diversidade de culturas e de modos de vida, assim como de interesses económicos, que nela convergem, fazem antever conflitualidades e problemas de justiça social.O desafio da sustentabilidade das zonas costeiras passa por criar processos de decisão e de gestão com a participação activa das populações locais e por uma abordagem inovadora face às estratégias de adaptação e ao seu próprio financiamento. Esta procura de modelos de gestão costeira mais sustentáveis não dispensa uma abordagem sociológica das problemáticas mencionadas. A partir de três casos de estudo na costa portuguesa – Vagueira, Costa da Caparica e Quarteira – nesta comunicação analisam-se os resultados de um inquérito aplicado a uma amostra representativa das populações aí residentes, bem como um conjunto de entrevistas realizadas aos stakeholders locais. Procuramos explorar as avaliações sobre os riscos costeiros e a disponibilidade dos actores locais para a participação em modelos alternativos de gestão e financiamento.

Encéphalite japonaise: risque pour les populations vivant en zones d'endémie et pour les voyageurs [The importance of Japanese encephalitis: for endemic populations and for travellers]

The importance of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in endemic populations and in travellers requires a balanced assessment. This disease represents an important public health problem in some endemic areas, which contrasts with the minimal risk for travellers to endemic areas. This is reflected by high numbers of infections mainly among children in endemic countries and by few case reports among tourists and even expatriates. The total number of case reports between 1978 and 2008 amounts to a risk of one to two cases per year. Nevertheless, some travelling groups may be at higher risk when visiting or working in high risk areas. A new vaccine against Japanese encephalitis will soon be registered in Switzerland. This paper contributes to the scarce data available for decision making whether or not to recommend the vaccination to tourists and expatriates.

Aspects of spatial and habitat ecology of multiple Anopheles species (Diptera: Culicidae): malaria vectors in the highlands and foothills of Ecuador

The resurgence of malaria in highland regions of Africa, Oceania and recently in South America underlines the importance of the study of the ecology of highland mosquito vectors of malaria. Since the incidence of malaria is limited by the distribution of its vectors, the purpose of this PhD thesis was to examine aspects of the ecology of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Andes of Ecuador, South America. A historical literature and archival data review (Chapter 2) indicated that Anopheles pseudopunctipennis transmitted malaria in highland valleys of Ecuador prior to 1950, although it was eliminated through habitat removal and the use of chemical insecticides. Other anopheline species were previously limited to low-altitude regions, except in a few unconfirmed cases. A thorough larval collection effort (n=438 attempted collection sites) in all road-accessible parts of Ecuador except for the lowland Amazon basin was undertaken between 2008 - 2010 (Chapter 3). Larvae were identified morphologically and using molecular techniques (mitochondrial COl gene), and distribution maps indicated that all five species collected (Anopheles albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis, Anopheles punctimacula, Anopheles oswaldoi s.l. and Anopheles eiseni) were more widespread throughout highland regions than previously recorded during the 1940s, with higher maximum altitudes for all except An. pseudopunctipennis (1541 m, 1930 m, 1906 m, 1233 m and 1873 m, respectively). During larval collections, to characterize species-specific larval habitat, a variety of abiotic and biotic habitat parameters were measured and compared between species-present and species-absent sites using chi-square tests and stepwise binary logistic regression analyses (Chapter 4). An. albimanus was significantly associated with permanent pools with sand substrates and An. pseudopunctipennis with gravel and boulder substrates. Both species were significantly associated with floating cyanobacterial mats and warmer temperatures, which may limit their presence in cooler highland regions. Anopheles punctimacula was collected more often than expected from algae-free, shaded pools with higher-than-average calculated dissolved oxygen. Anopheles oswaldoi s.l., the species occurring on the Amazonian side of the Andes, was associated with permanent, anthropogenic habitats such as roadside ditches and ponds. To address the hypothesis that human land use change is responsible for the emergence of multiple highland Anopheles species by creating larval habitat, common land uses in the western Andes were surveyed for standing water and potential larval habitat suitability (Chapter 5). Rivers and road edges provided large amounts of potentially suitable anopheline habitat in the western Andes, while cattle pasture also created potentially suitable habitat in irrigation canals and watering ponds. Other common land uses surveyed (banana farms, sugarcane plantations, mixed tree plantations, and empty lots) were usually established on steep slopes and had very little standing water present. Using distribution and larval habitat data, a GIS-based larval habitat distribution model for the common western species was constructed in ArcGIS v.l 0 (ESRI 2010) using derived data layers from field measurements and other sources (Chapter 6). The additive model predicted 76.4 - 97.9% of the field-observed collection localities of An. albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis and An. punctimacula, although it could not accurately distinguish between species-absent and speciespresent sites due to its coarse scale. The model predicted distributional expansion and/or shift of one or more anopheline species into the following highland valleys with climate warming: Mira/Chota, Imbabura province, Tumbaco, Pichincha province, Pallatanga and Sibambe, Chimborazo province, and Yungilla, Azuay province. These valleys may serve as targeted sites of future monitoring to prevent highland epidemics of malaria. The human perceptions of malaria and mosquitoes in relation to land management practices were assessed through an interview-based survey (n=262) in both highlands and lowlands, of male and female land owners and managers of five property types (Chapter 7). Although respondents had a strong understanding of where the disease occurs in their own country and of the basic relationship among standing water, mosquitoes and malaria, about half of respondents in potential risk areas denied the current possibility of malaria infection on their own property. As well, about half of respondents with potential anopheline larval habitat did not report its presence, likely due to a highly specific definition of suitable mosquito habitat. Most respondents who are considered at risk of malaria currently use at least one type of mosquito bite prevention, most commonly bed nets. In conclusion, this interdisciplinary thesis examines the occurrence of Anopheles species in the lowland transition area and highlands in Ecuador, from a historic, geographic, ecological and sociological perspective.

Geographical and temporal distribution of human giardiasis in Ontario, Canada

Affiliation: Pascal Michel : Département de pathologie et microbiologie, Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal

La vulnérabilité face au risque cyclonique : le cas du wilayat Bawshar en Oman

L’objectif de ce mémoire est de réaliser une étude descriptive et évaluative de la vulnérabilité du wilayat Bawshar (district du gouvernorat Mascate, capitale du Sultanat d’Oman), face au risque cyclonique et ce, dans le but de promouvoir la prévention et l’adaptation. À partir des diverses méthodes d’analyse de la vulnérabilité, présentées dans le cadre théorique, nous souhaitons développer une méthode basée sur la prémisse que la vulnérabilité est un système composé de plusieurs facteurs. Cette méthode sera ensuite adaptée au contexte du wilayat Bawshar en lien avec le risque cyclonique. Cette approche est réalisée autour de trois dimensions de la vulnérabilité : physique, sociale et institutionnelle. À la suite de l’application à notre cas d'étude des différentes théories et méthodes analytiques, réalisée grâce à une analyse qualitative et quantitative, générée par une recherche documentaire, des entrevues semi-dirigées, des données statistiques et géomatiques, une observation directe du terrain d’étude ainsi qu’un sondage, voici les importants résultats que nous avons obtenus : les cyclones affectant le gouvernorat de Mascate génèrent d’importants dommages tels que les pertes de vies humaines, la destruction des maisons et des principaux réseaux de transport, ainsi que d’autres perturbations, ceci dû principalement aux inondations émanant des cyclones. Cet endommagement s’explique par la combinaison et l’interaction de plusieurs facteurs tels que les changements océanographiques et atmosphériques affectant le pays ainsi que la topographie et l’hydrologie du site. Les facteurs tels que l’étalement urbain, l’urbanisation de zones à risques, l’explosion démographique, la non diversification de l’économie ainsi que les conditions socio-économiques amplifient la vulnérabilité face au risque cyclonique. Toutefois d’autres facteurs et changements réalisés par le Sultanat d’Oman dans les dernières années diminuent la vulnérabilité de sa population et réduisent l’endommagement à la suite de tels aléas. Parmi eux, nous retrouvons le développement que le pays a soutenu depuis 1970 dans plusieurs secteurs tels que la santé, l’éducation, les infrastructures et l’instauration de politiques de développement durable visant à diversifier l’économie. Depuis le passage des cyclones Gonu et Phet au Sultanat d’Oman, la gestion des risques est au centre même des priorités gouvernementales.

Simulative Risikoanalyse von Biomethanprojekten

Im Zuge der Novellierung der Gasnetzzugangsverordnung sowie des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes entwickelte sich die Einspeisung von Biomethan in das Erdgasnetz als alternative Investitionsmöglichkeit der Erneuerbare-Energien-Branche. Als problematisch erweist sich dabei die Identifikation und Strukturierung einzelner Risikofaktoren zu einem Risikobereich, sowie die anschließende Quantifizierung dieser Risikofaktoren innerhalb eines Risikoportfolios. Darüber hinaus besteht die Schwierigkeit, diese Risikofaktoren in einem cashflowbasierten und den Ansprüchen der Investoren gewachsenem Risikomodell abzubilden. Zusätzlich müssen dabei Wechselwirkungen zwischen einzelnen Risikofaktoren berücksichtigt werden. Aus diesem Grund verfolgt die Dissertation das Ziel, die Risikosituation eines Biomethanprojektes anhand aggregierter und isolierter Risikosimulationen zu analysieren. Im Rahmen einer Diskussion werden Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosteuerung angesprochen sowie die Implementierungsfähigkeit des Risikomodells in das Risikomanagementsystem von Investoren. Die Risikomaße zur Beschreibung der Risikoauswirkung betrachten die Shortfälle einer Verteilung. Dabei beziehen sich diese auf die geplanten Ausschüttungen sowie interne Verzinsungsansprüche der Investoren und die von Kreditinstituten geforderte minimale Schuldendienstdeckungsrate. Im Hinblick auf die Risikotragfähigkeit werden liquiditätsorientierte Kennzahlen hinzugezogen. Investoren interessieren sich vor dem Hintergrund einer gezielten Risikosteuerung hauptsächlich für den gefahrvollsten Risikobereich und innerhalb dessen für den Risikofaktor, der die größten Risikoauswirkungen hervorruft. Zudem spielt der Zeitpunkt maximaler Risikoauswirkung eine große Rolle. Als Kernaussage dieser Arbeit wird festgestellt, dass in den meisten Fällen die Aussagefähigkeit aggregierter Risikosimulationen durch Überlagerungseffekte negativ beeinträchtigt wird. Erst durch isoliert durchgeführte Risikoanalysen können diese Effekte eliminiert werden. Besonders auffällig gestalten sich dabei die Ergebnisse der isoliert durchgeführten Risikoanalyse des Risikobereichs »Politik«. So verursacht dieser im Vergleich zu den übrigen Risikobereichen, wie »Infrastruktur«, »Rohstoffe«, »Absatzmarkt« und »Finanzmarkt«, die geringsten Wahrscheinlichkeiten avisierte Planwerte der Investoren zu unterschreiten. Kommt es jedoch zu einer solchen Planwert-Unterschreitung, nehmen die damit verbundenen Risikoauswirkungen eine überraschende Position im Risikoranking der Investoren ein. Hinsichtlich der Aussagefähigkeit des Risikomodells wird deutlich, dass spezifische Risikosichtweisen der Investoren ausschlaggebend dafür sind, welche Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosenkung umgesetzt werden. Darüber hinaus wird festgestellt, dass die Grenzen des Risikomodells in der Validität der Expertenmeinungen und dem Auffinden einer Optimallösung zu suchen sind.

Prevención de los comportamientos sexuales de riesgo en los adolescentes: SIDA, otras enfermedades de transmisión sexual y embarazos no deseados

En la actualidad, los adolescentes son uno de los grupos que por sus características conductuales, cognitivas y sociales, se encuentran en mayor riesgo frente al posible contagio con el VIH. Esta amenaza para la salud y el bienestar de los adolescentes, se ha venido a sumar a otros problemas ya existentes en este colectivo: los embarazos no deseados y las enfermedades de transmisión sexual (ETS), que también se derivan de la no utilización de precauciones en las relaciones sexuales. En este trabajo se exponen diversos factores biológicos, psicológicos (conductuales y cognitivos) y sociales que pueden facilitar, dificultar o impedir los comportamientos sexuales de prevención de los adolescentes, y se revisan y valoran algunas de las intervenciones preventivas realizadas. A partir de esta revisión se argumenta sobre la conveniencia de unificar los programas para la prevención simultánea de los tres trastornos, maximizando de esta forma los recursos disponibles

Exploratory Study on Occupational Health Exposure to Chemical Agents, in a Public Hospital in Valencia, Venezuela. Preliminar Assessment

Descriptive study that identified chemical agents (AQ) use and training on risk management and waste disposal techniques in a public Hospital in Valencia. A questionnaire was answered by 48 workers. Information obtained was: personal data, occupational history, AQ used; knowledge of risk management and waste disposal. There were 16 occupations from 12 “High Risk” areas. “Adult emergency” was the one with more workers (11 individuals), followed by “sterilization” and “clinical laboratory” (7 each) and oncology (5). The remained areas had less than 8.3% workers. The most used anesthetic agents were: Halothane, Enfluorane and Isofluorane 4.17% each and main antineoplastics used were: Doxorubicin 16.67% and Paclitaxel, 5-Fluoracil and Etoposide, 8.33% each. The most mentioned substances were: alcohol (70.8%) and Chlorine (64.6%). None of the answers regarding knowledge of AQ’ risk management and waste disposal was satisfactory. Statistical associations between training and several variables such as age, time in their job and being or not a professional, resulted non-significant. The correlation between training and the knowledge of AQ’s management was significant (p < 0.001). Participants showed that their knowledge about chemical occupational risk factors they are exposed to is still insufficient. Therefore, this theme should be included in graduate course curricula. These results provide important data and will serve as a pilot research for the follow up Phase II study that will include clinical aspects and environmental and biological monitoring.

Redes de inmigración, asentamientos informales y zonas de riesgo de inundación: el caso del Río de Oro en Santander (Colombia)

El trabajo devela las redes de inmigración que propiciaron la configuración de tres asentamientos humanos informales en la ronda del Río de Oro, en el sector urbano del municipio de Girón, Santander (Colombia). El estudio destaca la importancia de tener en cuenta la base socionatural en los ejercicios de planificación de la ciudad y, al mismo tiempo, muestra la necesidad de estudiar la dinámica migratoria hacia las zonas de alto riesgo de inundación.

Actitudes hacia el VIH/SIDA, el cáncer y la enfermedad de Alzheimer

Esta revisión de la literatura tuvo como objetivo describir las actitudes hacia el VIH/SIDA, el cáncer y la Enfermedad de Alzheimer desde el modelo tripartito. Se revisaron 109 artículos publicados entre 2005 y 2015 en algunas bases de datos especializadas y herramientas de análisis de impacto. También se incluyeron fuentes secundarias ampliándose la búsqueda a los últimos 20 años (1995-2015). Los resultados mostraron que la mayoría de los estudios realizados sobre las actitudes hacia estas tres enfermedades son de tipo cuantitativo y la información se analizó con base en los componentes del modelo tripartito. Algunos aspectos sociodemográficos como el sexo y la edad están asociados con las actitudes hacia las tres enfermedades y predominan las creencias erróneas sobre ellas respecto a sus causas, curso y tratamiento. También predominan actitudes negativas hacia las tres enfermedades y las conductas e intenciones conductuales son diversas hacia cada una de ellas. No se hallaron antecedentes empíricos del estudio de la estructura de las actitudes propuesta por el modelo tripartito hacia las tres enfermedades. La Salud Pública ha liderado la investigación con base en el modelo de conocimientos, actitudes y prácticas propuesto por la OMS.

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Sistemas de informação geográfica e análise espacial de dados como ferramentas para determinação de agregação espacial de doenças: a hanseníase como modelo

This work demonstrates the importance of using tools used in geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial data analysis (SDA) for the study of infectious diseases. Analysis methods were used to describe more fully the spatial distribution of a particular disease by incorporating the geographical element in the analysis. In Chapter 1, we report the historical evolution of these techniques in the field of human health and use Hansen s disease (leprosy) in Rio Grande do Norte as an example. In Chapter 2, we introduced a few basic theoretical concepts on the methodology and classified the types of spatial data commonly treated. Chapters 3 and 4 defined and demonstrated the use of the two most important techniques for analysis of health data, which are data point processes and data area. We modelled the case distribution of Hansen s disease in the city of Mossoró - RN. In the analysis, we used R scripts and made available routines and analitical procedures developed by the author. This approach can be easily used by researchers in several areas. As practical results, major risk areas in Mossoró leprosy were detected, and its association with the socioeconomic profile of the population at risk was found. Moreover, it is clearly shown that his approach could be of great help to be used continuously in data analysis and processing, allowing the development of new strategies to work might increase the use of such techniques in data analysis in health care

Geostatistical analysis of the spatial distribution of Rotylenchulus reniformis on cotton cultivated under crop rotation

The spatial distribution of Rotylenchulus reniformis on cotton cultivated in crop rotation with sorghum-peanut-velvetbean was studied using geostatistics. The experimental field, which had been continuously cropped with cotton for 20 years, comprised two 32 x 48 m-grids, each divided in sixty-four 4 x 6 in sampling plots. For all crops, 300 cm(3) soil samples were taken at the center of each plot at crop germination (Pi) and again at harvest (Pf), from which the numbers of nematodes were determined. The results revealed that the spatial distribution of R. reniformis was highly aggregated and with the aid of geostatistical techniques the nematode intensities were mapped and the risk areas accurately identified. Consequently, geostatistics is here considered a useful tool for planning nematode control strategies, particularly in precision agriculture.

Análises espaciais na identificação das áreas de risco para a esquistossomose mansônica no município de Lauro de Freitas, Bahia, Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)