A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Demographic profile of blood donors at three major Brazilian blood centers: results from the International REDS-II study, 2007 to 2008

BACKGROUND: The profile of blood donors changed dramatically in Brazil over the past 20 years, from remunerated to nonremunerated and then from replacement to community donors. Donor demographic data from three major blood centers establish current donation profiles in Brazil, serving as baseline for future analyses and tracking longitudinal changes in donor characteristics. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were extracted from the blood center, compiled in a data warehouse, and analyzed. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian census. RESULTS: During 2007 to 2008, there were 615,379 blood donations from 410,423 donors. A total of 426,142 (69.2%) were from repeat (Rpt) donors and 189,237 (30.8%) were from first-time (FT) donors. Twenty percent of FT donors returned to donate in the period. FT donors were more likely to be younger, and Rpt donors were more likely to be community donors. All were predominantly male. Replacement donors still represent 50% of FT and 30% of Rpt donors. The mean percentage of the potentially general population who were donors was approximately 1.2% for the three centers (0.7, 1.5, and 3.1%). Adjusting for the catchment`s area, the first two were 2.1 and 1.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Donors in the three Brazilian centers tended to be younger with a higher proportion of males than in the general population. Donation rates were lower than desirable. There were substantial differences in sex, age, and community/replacement status by center. Studies on the safety, donation frequencies, and motivations of donors are in progress to orient efforts to enhance the availability of blood.

Effects of cyclosporine a and bronchial transection on mucociliary transport in rats

Background. Posttransplant infection remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation. We hypothesized that bronchial transection and immunosuppression by cyclosporine both play a key role in the impairment of airway mucociliary clearance, a basic defense system. Methods. Sixty-four rats were assigned to four groups of 16 each according to surgical procedure and drug therapy as follows: sham-operated and saline solution; bronchial transection and saline solution; sham-operated and cyclosporine; bronchial transection and cyclosporine (10 mg/kg/day). Eight animals from each group were euthanized on postoperative day 30 or 90. In vitro mucus transportability, in situ mucociliary transport, and ciliary beating frequency were measured. Results. There was a significant impairment (p < 0.001) on ciliary beating frequency due to either bronchial transection or cyclosporine therapy. In vitro transportability was impaired only in cyclosporine-treated groups (p < 0.001). In situ mucociliary transport was reduced in cyclosporine-treated animals as well as in those that underwent bronchial transection (p < 0.001). This impairment was significantly recovered 90 days after operation. In contrast, the effects of cyclosporine did not change over 90 days of treatment. Conclusions. These results support our hypothesis that mucociliary clearance is impaired after bronchial transection and cyclosporine therapy. Further studies are necessary to relate this finding with posttransplant infection and also to test some drugs aiming to protect airway mucociliary system.

Postprandial gastric antral contractions in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a scintigraphic study

Disturbed gastric contractility has been found in manometric studies in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), but the pathophysiological role of this abnormality is unclear. We aimed at assessing postprandial gastric antral contractions and its relationships with gastric emptying and gastro-oesophageal reflux in GORD patients. Fasted GORD patients (n = 13) and healthy volunteers (n = 13) ingested a liquid meal labelled with 72 MBq of (99m)Technetium-phytate. Gastric images were acquired every 10 min for 2 h, for measuring gastric emptying half time. Dynamic antral scintigraphy (one frame per second), performed for 4 min at 30-min intervals, allowed estimation of both mean dominant frequency and amplitude of antral contractions. In GORD patients (n = 10), acidic reflux episodes occurring 2 h after the ingestion of the same test meal were determined by ambulatory 24-h oesophageal pH monitoring. Gastric emptying was similar in GORD patients and controls (median; range: 82 min; 58-126 vs 80 min; 44-122 min; P = 0.38). Frequency of antral contractions was also similar in both groups (3.1 cpm; 2.8-3.6 vs 3.2 cpm; 2.4-3.8 cpm; P = 0.15). In GORD patients, amplitude of antral contractions was significantly higher than in controls (32.7%; 17-44%vs 23.3%; 16-43%; P = 0.01), and correlated positively with gastric emptying time (R-s = 0.58; P = 0.03) and inversely with the number of reflux episodes (R-s = -0.68; P = 0.02). Increased amplitude of postprandial gastric antral contractions in GORD may comprise a compensatory mechanism against delayed gastric emptying and a defensive factor against acidic gastro-oesophageal reflux.

Molecular Epidemiology of Avian Infectious Bronchitis in Brazil from 2007 to 2008 in Breeders, Broilers, and Layers

Multiple lineages of Brazilian strains from 2007 to 2008 of avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) were detected in flocks of breeders, broilers, and layers. Organs samples from 20 IBV-positive flocks with variable clinical signs were submitted to the partial amplification of S gene (nucleotides 726-1071) of IBV. Fifteen of the 20 sequenced strains segregated in a unique Brazilian cluster subdivided in three subclusters (Brazil 01, 02, and 03). Whereas three strains could be classified as Massachusetts (Mass) genotype, the remaining two strains, originating from flocks with reproductive and respiratory disorders, grouped within the 4/91-793B genotype, a genotype that has not been detected before in Brazil. The potential relevance of the findings to the poultry industry is discussed because the low level of identity of the sequenced part of the S gene from 17 of 20 detected field strains and the vaccines of the Massachusetts serotype used suggest that the level of cross-protection by the Massachusetts vaccines might be low.

A????es premiadas no 13?? Concurso Inova????o na Gest??o P??blica Federal 2008

Nesta publica????o, referente ao 13?? Concurso Inova????o na Gest??o P??blica Federal, o leitor encontrar?? iniciativas inovadoras nas seguintes ??reas: Arranjos institucionais para coordena????o e/ou implementa????o de pol??ticas p??blicas; atendimento ao cidad??o; melhoria dos processos de trabalho; planejamento, gest??o e desempenho institucional

Relat??rio de gest??o 2008

A Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica - ENAP ratificou sua miss??o de desenvolver compet??ncias de servidores p??blicos para aumentar a capacidade de governo na gest??o das pol??ticas p??blicas, buscando o enfrentamento dos desafios previstos at?? 2010, quais sejam: consolidar-se como refer??ncia na forma????o de dirigentes; implementar de forma estrat??gica e inovadora a Pol??tica Nacional de Desenvolvimento de Pessoal - PNDP; prospectar e disseminar conceitos e tecnologias inovadoras de gest??o de pol??ticas p??blicas; prospectar, construir e disseminar, interna e externamente tecnologias educacionais inovadoras; tornar-se escola de governo refer??ncia nacional e internacional; e consolidar-se como uma organiza????o de aprendizagem. A relev??ncia da capacita????o ?? destacada pelo Decreto n?? 5.707/06, que criou a PNDP. Em 2008 a ENAP destacou-se no processo de implementa????o desta Pol??tica, por integrar seu Comit?? Gestor e coordenar o sistema de escolas de governo da Uni??o

Relat??rio de atividades 2008

Em 2008 a Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica - ENAP ratificou sua miss??o de desenvolver compet??ncias de servidores p??blicos para aumentar a capacidade de governo na gest??o das pol??ticas p??blicas, buscando o enfrentamento dos desafios previstos at?? 2010, quais sejam: consolidar-se como refer??ncia na forma????o de dirigentes; implementar de forma estrat??gica e inovadora a Pol??tica Nacional de Desenvolvimento de Pessoal - PNDP; prospectar e disseminar conceitos e tecnologias inovadoras de gest??o de pol??ticas p??blicas; prospectar, construir e disseminar, interna e externamente, tecnologias educacionais inovadoras; tornar-se escola de governo refer??ncia nacional e internacional;e consolidar-se como uma organiza????o de aprendizagem.

Decreto n?? 6.563, de 11 de setembro de 2008: Aprova o Estatuto e o Quadro Demonstrativo dos Cargos em Comiss??o e das Fun????es Gratificadas da ENAP

Decreto n?? 6.563, de 11 de setembro de 2008 aprova o Estatuto e o Quadro Demonstrativo dos Cargos em Comiss??o e das Fun????es Gratificadas da Funda????o Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica - ENAP, e d?? outras provid??ncias.

Decreto n?? 8.091, de 3 de setembro de 2013: Altera o Decreto n?? 6.563, de 11 de setembro de 2008, que aprova o Estatuto e o Quadro Demonstrativo dos Cargos em Comiss??o e das Fun????es Gratificadas da Funda????o Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica - ENAP, e remaneja cargos em comiss??o

Decreto n?? 8.091, de 3 de setembro de 2013 altera o Decreto n?? 6.563, de 11 de setembro de 2008, que aprova o Estatuto e o Quadro Demonstrativo dos Cargos em Comiss??o e das Fun????es Gratificadas da Funda????o Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica - ENAP, e remaneja cargos em comiss??o.

Decreto n?? 6.563, de 11 de setembro de 2008: aprova o Estatuto e o Quadro Demonstrativo dos Cargos em Comiss??o das Fun????es Gratificadas da Funda????o Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica - ENAP, e d?? outras provid??ncias

Aprova o Estatuto e o Quadro Demonstrativo dos Cargos em Comiss??o e das Fun????es Gratificadas da Funda????o Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica - ENAP, e d?? outras provid??ncias.

Uma an??lise dos principais efeitos da Lei n?? 11.890, de 24 de dezembro de 2008, sobre a carreira de Especialista em Pol??ticas P??blicas e Gest??o Governamental

As altera????es introduzidas pela Lei n?? 11.890, de 24 de dezembro de 2008, as mais significativas e relevantes e avaliam-se seus efeitos sobre a carreira de Especialista em Pol??ticas Publicas e Gest??o Governamental. Levantam-se quest??es de interpreta????o sistem??tica desses novos dispositivos legais aplic??veis ?? carreira e suas poss??veis implica????es sobre as regulamenta????es por elaborar conforme a previs??o legal. Apresenta-se, ainda, um instrumento para realizar proje????es e simula????es sobre como os limites quantitativos por classe estabelecidos na nova Lei tender??o a afetar as promo????es dos integrantes da carreira nos pr??ximos anos. Sua aplica????o, com o horizonte no ano 2021, indicou a tend??ncia de falha na tentativa do legislador de moldar a carreira em formato piramidal, mas, outrossim, significativo e inquestion??vel avan??o em tal dire????o na compara????o com o cen??rio sem as altera????es legais, em que poderia haver uma concentra????o superior a 80% do contingente na Classe Especial. O instrumento de proje????es poder?? ser facilmente aplicado ??s demais carreiras abrangidas na Lei em foco, bastando aplicar seus dados e premissas espec??ficos.

Parâmetros bioquímicos foliares das espécies Licania tomentosa (Benth.) e Bauhinia forficata (Link.) para avaliação da qualidade do ar

Foliar analysis of biochemical parameters were carried out in order to investigate the influence of air pollutants on two tropical tree species (Licania tomentosa (Benth.) and Bauhinia forfícata (Link.)). Special attention was given to tropospheric ozone due to the fact that concentration levels in the region were found to be up to 140 µg m-3 for a 4 h average time, which is well above the value that can cause injuries to orchides and tobacco (59 µg m-3). Other pollutants such as nitrogen and sulphur oxides were measured and their ambient concentrations were also associated to biochemical alterations in the investigated species.