INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Johdon yritysoston onnistumisen tukeminen pääomasijoitusyhtiön post-buyout toiminnan avulla

Tutkielman tavoitteena on analysoida, miten pääomasijoitusyhtiö voi post-buyout toiminnallaan tukea sijoituksensa onnistumista erilaisissa johdon yritysostotapauksissa. Tutkielmassa rakennetaan teoreettinen viitekehys, jonka avulla pääomasijoitusyhtiö voi tukea sijoituksensa arvon säilymistä ja toisaalta lisäarvon syntymistä. Tätä viitekehystä tarkennetaan ja testataan empiirisellä aineistolla, joka koostuu suomalaisen pääomasijoitusyhtiön ja sen neljän johdon yritysoston läpikäyneen kohdeyrityksen haastatteluista sekä pääomasijoitusyhtiön tuottamasta kirjallisesta materiaalista. Teorian ja empiirisen materiaalin perusteella johdon yritysoston onnistu-minen on usein subjektiivista sekä suhteellista suunniteltuun irtautumistapaan nähden. Joissakin tapauksissa jo pelkkä pääomasijoittajan mukaantulo voi vaikuttaa positiivisesti kohdeyrityksen riskinottoon ja siten pääomasijoitusyhtiön post-buyout toiminnan onnistumiseen.

The Dynamic Customer Portfolio Method in Customer Relationship Management

Tutkielman tavoitteena on määritellä keskeiset ja sopivat asiakasportfoliomallit ja asiakasmatriisit asiakassuhteen määrittämiseen. Tutkimus keskittyy asiakassuhteen arvottamiseen ja avainasiakkaiden määrittämiseen kohdeyrityksessä. Keskeisimmät ja sopivimmat asiakasportfliomallit huomioidaan asiakkaiden arvioinnissa. Tutkielman teoriaosassa esitellään tunnetuimmat ja käytetyimmät asiakasportfoliomallit ja matriisit alan kirjallisuuden perusteella. Tämän lisäksi asiakasportfoliomalleihin yhdistetään näkökulmia suhdemarkkinoinnin, asiakkuuksien johtamisen ja tuoteportfolioiden teorioista. Keskeisimmät kirjallisuuden lähteet ovat johtamisen ja markkinoinnin alalta. Tutkielman empiriaosassa esitellään kohdeyritys ja sen tämän hetkinen asiakassuhteiden johtamiskäytäntö. Lisäksi tehdään parannusehdotuksia kohdeyrityksen nykyiseen asiakassuhteiden arvottamismenetelmään jotta asiakassuhteiden arvon laskeminen vastaisi mahdollisimman hyvin kohdeyrityksen nykyisiä tarpeita. Asiakassuhteen arvon määrittämiseksi käytetään myös fokusryhmähaastattelua. Avainasiakkaat määritellään ja tilannetta havainnollistetaan sijoittamalla avainasiakkaat asiakasportfolioon.

Pankkien tuloksenjärjestelymahdollisuudet siirryttäessä IFRS-normistoon

Tutkielman ensisijaisena tavoitteena oli määrittää pankkien tuloksenjärjestelymahdollisuuksien muutoksia siirryttäessä kansallisesta FAS GAAP -tilinpäätösnormistosta IFRS-normistoon. Tuloksenjärjestelyn ilmiötä käsiteltiin esittelemällä useita koti- ja ulkomaisia tuloksenjärjestelytutkimuksia. Pankeilla on toimialalleen erityisiä kannustimia tuloksenjärjestelyyn. Pankkitoimialalla tuloksenjärjestely on perinteisesti esiintynyt tuloksentasaamisena tilikausien välillä. Tutkimuksessa saatiin selkeä kuva tuloksenjärjestelymahdollisuuksien muutoksesta. IFRS-normiston sisältämä johdon harkintavalta ilmenee tilinpäätöksen laadintaperiaatteiden valinnaisuutena ja standardien laskelmien sisältäminä johdon arvioina ja oletuksina. Harkintavaltaa käyttämällä johto voi vaikuttaa tilinpäätöksen taseeseen ja tulokseen. IFRS-normistossa tilinpäätöksen laadintaperiaatteisiin liittyvä johdon harkintavalta on vähentynyt verrattuna kansalliseen FAS GAAP-tilinpäätöskäytäntöön, mutta IFRS jättää johdolle edelleen harkintavaltaa muutamien kirjaus- ja raportointikäytäntöjen suhteen. Perinteisten tuloksenjärjestelykeinojen rinnalle IFRS:ssä nousevat useiden standardien laskelmien sisältämät johdon arviot ja oletukset tulevaisuuden muuttujista. Omaisuuserien käypään arvoon arvostamisen myötä tilikauden tuloksista saattaa tulla aikaisempaa volatiilimpia. Käypiin arvoihin arvostamisen seurauksena pankit saattavat siirtyä käyttämään sijoitustensa ostoja ja myyntejä tuloksentasauskeinona. FAS GAAP:ssa pankit ovat käyttäneet tuloksentasaamiseen tiettyjä suoriteperusteisia eriä, esimerkiksi luottotappiovarauksia. IFRS tiukentaa varausten tekemisen periaatteita, mutta tuo tilalle lainakannan arvonalentumistestaukseen sisältyvät johdon arviot.

Stock and Bond Market Integration: Evidence from Russian Financial Markets

Minimizing the risks of an investment portfolio but not in the favour of expected returns is one of the key interests of an investor. Typically, portfolio diversification is achieved using two main strategies: investing in different classes of assets thought to have little or negative correlations or investing in similar classes of assets in multiple markets through international diversification. This study investigates integration of the Russian financial markets in the time period of January 1, 2003 to December 28, 2007 using daily data. The aim is to test the intra-country and cross-country integration of the Russian stock and bond markets between seven countries. Our test methodology for the short-run dynamics testing is the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and for the long-run cointegration testing we use the Johansen cointegration test which is an extension to VAR. The empirical results of this study show that the Russian stock and bond markets are not integrated in the long-run either at intra-country or cross-country level which means that the markets are relatively segmented. The short-run dynamics are also relatively low. This implies a presence of potential gains from diversification.

Infrastructure Investment and Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-1935

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on Spanish economic growth between 1850 and 1935. Using new infrastructure data and VAR techniques, this paper shows that the growth impact of local-scope infrastructure investment was positive, but returns to investment in large nation-wide networks were not significantly different from zero. Two complementary explanations are suggested for the last result. On the one hand, public intervention and the application of non-efficiency investment criteria were very intense in large network construction. On the other hand, returns to new investment in large networks might have decreased dramatically once the basic links were constructed.

Impact of Investment Strategies on Performance in Pulp and Paper Industry

The main objective of this study was to examine, what kind of investment strategies the leading European and North American pulp and paper industry companies (PPI) used in 1991-2003, and how the selected strategies affected their performance. The investment strategies were categorised in three classes including mergers and acquisitions, investments in new capacity and investments in existing capacity. The results showed that mergers and acquisitions represented the largest share of total investments in 1991-2003 followed by investments in existing capacity. PPI companies changed investment strategies over time by increasing the share of mergers and acquisitions, which decreased investments in new capacity especially among North American companies. According to the results, good asset quality and investments in new and existing capacity provided better profitability than often expensive acquisitions. Also the capacity decreases had a positive impact on profitability. Average asset quality and profitability were higher among European companies. The study concluded that in the long term the available value creating investment opportunities should limit capital expenditure levels, not the relation of capital expenditure to depreciation.

The transatlantic business community faced with US direct investment in Western Europe, 1958-1968

This article examines the position of US and European business in the debate about American direct investment in Western Europe in a historical perspective, from the establishment of the Common Market to the introduction of US regulation of foreign direct investment (FDI) a decade later. Based on abundant and diverse archival documents, it sheds new light on the process of Americanisation and contributes to existing research on transnational networks, by revealing the active role industrial leaders on both sides of the Atlantic played in shaping the political responses to problems raised by the American firms' massive presence in the Common Market.

Female common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) do not adjust their sex-biased investment in relation to the adult sex ratio.

Sex allocation theory predicts that facultative maternal investment in the rare sex should be favoured by natural selection when breeders experience predictable variation in adult sex ratios (ASRs). We found significant spatial and predictable interannual changes in local ASRs within a natural population of the common lizard where the mean ASR is female-biased, thus validating the key assumptions of adaptive sex ratio models. We tested for facultative maternal investment in the rare sex during and after an experimental perturbation of the ASR by creating populations with female-biased or male-biased ASR. Mothers did not adjust their clutch sex ratio during or after the ASR perturbation, but produced sons with a higher body condition in male-biased populations. However, this differential sex allocation did not result in growth or survival differences in offspring. Our results thus contradict the predictions of adaptive models and challenge the idea that facultative investment in the rare sex might be a mechanism regulating the population sex ratio.

Treaty shopping in international investment law

Is "treaty shopping" in international investment law "legitimate nationality planning" or "treaty abuse"? This is the question investment arbitral tribunals have been increasingly faced with over past years. This PhD thesis will examine in a systematic and comprehensive manner investment arbitral decisions that have attempted to draw this line. It will show that while some legal approaches taken by arbitral tribunals have started to consolidate, others remain unsettled, contributing to the picture of an overall inconsistent jurisprudence. The thesis will also make proposals de lege ferenda on how States could reform their international investment agreements in order to make them less susceptible to the practice of treaty shopping.

Assessment of research competences using e-portfolio

The challenges posed by the assessment of distance learning is a topic that requires, on the one hand, evolution with new trends and, on the other improving evaluative processes, to promote good practices. This demand becomes more imperative when we are dealing with a formativescenario based on distance assessment of competence-based learning.The Open University of Catalonia has begun to work with these formative tools, promoting new practices for online education. A very clear example of these educational practices is the assessment of research competences using the e-portfolio system. To meet this aim a profound and solid process has been developed over recent years, with the intention of making this tool an assessment alternative, and providing the opportunity to use it in a formative context. The objective is to study its strengths and limitations keeping in mind the final goal of offering the higher education community a validated assessment system.

Creating a research network for a successful e-portfolio design and implementation

The presence of e-portfolios in educational centres, companies and administrations has emergedstrongly during the last years by creating very different practices coming from different objectives and purposes. This situation has led researchers and practitioners to design and implement e-portfolios with little reference to previous knowledge of them; consequently, developments are disparate with many of the processes and dimensions used both in development and use being unnecessary complex. In order to minimize the inconveniences, unify these developmental processes and improve the resultsof implementation and use of e-portfolios, it seemed necessary to create a network of researchers, teachers and trainers coming from different universities and institutions of different kinds who are interested in the investigation and the practice of e-portfolios in Spain. Therefore, The Network on e-portfoliowas created in 2006, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education and led by the UniversitatOberta de Catalunya. Besides the goals associatedwith the creation of this network and which wewanted to share with other European researchers and experts of other continents, we will also present in this paper some data concerned with the first study carried out on the use of e-portfolios in our country that shows where we are and which trends are the most important for the near future.

The practical application of e-Portfolio at the Open University of Catalonia : assessment of competence based learning

The paper presents the results of the piloting or pilot test in a virtual classroom. This e-portfolio was carried out in the 2005-2006 academic year, with students of the Doctorate in Information Society, at the Open University of Catalonia. The electronic portfolio is a strategy for competence based assessment. This experience shows the types of e-portfolios, where students show their work without interactions, and apply the competence-based learning theories in an interactive portfolio system. The real process of learning is developed in the competency based system, the portfolio not only is a basic bio document, has become a real space for learning with competence model. The paper brings out new ideas and possibilities: the competence-based learning promotes closer relationships between universities and companies and redesigns the pedagogic act.