Nineteenth century narratives reveal historic catch rates for Australian snapper (Pagrus auratus)

Snapper (Pagrus auratus) is widely distributed throughout subtropical and temperate southern oceans and forms a significant recreational and commercial fishery in Queensland, Australia. Using data from government reports, media sources, popular publications and a government fisheries survey carried out in 1910, we compiled information on individual snapper fishing trips that took place prior to the commencement of fisherywide organized data collection, from 1871 to 1939. In addition to extracting all available quantitative data, we translated qualitative information into bounded estimates and used multiple imputation to handle missing values, forming 287 records for which catch rate (snapper fisher−1 h−1) could be derived. Uncertainty was handled through a parametric maximum likelihood framework (a transformed trivariate Gaussian), which facilitated statistical comparisons between data sources. No statistically significant differences in catch rates were found among media sources and the government fisheries survey. Catch rates remained stable throughout the time series, averaging 3.75 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 3.42–4.09) as the fishery expanded into new grounds. In comparison, a contemporary (1993–2002) south-east Queensland charter fishery produced an average catch rate of 0.4 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 0.31–0.58). These data illustrate the productivity of a fishery during its earliest years of development and represent the earliest catch rate data globally for this species. By adopting a formalized approach to address issues common to many historical records – missing data, a lack of quantitative information and reporting bias – our analysis demonstrates the potential for historical narratives to contribute to contemporary fisheries management.

The dynamic stability of degenerate systems under parametric excitation

The parametric resonance in a system having two modes of the same frequency is studied. The simultaneous occurence of the instabilities of the first and second kind is examined, by using a generalized perturbation procedure. The region of instability in the first approximation is obtained by using the Sturm's theorem for the roots of a polynomial equation.

A comparison of welfare outcomes for weaner and mature Bos indicus bulls surgically or tension band castrated with or without analgesia: 2. Responses related to stress, health and productivity

Tension banding castration of cattle is gaining favour because it is relatively simple to perform and is promoted by retailers of the banders as a humane castration method. Two experiments were conducted, under tropical conditions using Bos indicus bulls comparing tension banding (Band) and surgical (Surgical) castration of weaner (7–10 months old) and mature (22–25 months old) bulls with and without pain management (NSAID (ketoprofen) or saline injected intramuscularly immediately prior to castration). Welfare outcomes were assessed using a range of measures; this paper reports on some physiological, morbidity and productivity-related responses to augment the behavioural responses reported in an accompanying paper. Blood samples were taken on the day of castration (day 0) at the time of restraint (0 min) and 30 min (weaners) or 40 min (mature bulls), 2 h, and 7 h; and days 1, 2, 3, 7, 14, 21 and 28 post-castration. Plasmas from day 0 were assayed for cortisol, creatine kinase, total protein and packed cell volume. Plasmas from the other samples were assayed for cortisol and haptoglobin (plus the 0 min sample). Liveweights were recorded approximately weekly to 6 weeks and at 2 and 3 months post-castration. Castration sites were checked at these same times to 2 months post-castration to score the extent of healing and presence of sepsis. Cortisol concentrations (mean ± s.e. nmol/L) were significantly (P < 0.05) higher in the Band (67 ± 4.5) compared with Surgical weaners (42 ± 4.5) at 2 h post-castration, but at 24 h post-castration were greater in the Surgical (43 ± 3.2) compared with the Band weaners (30 ± 3.2). The main effect of ketoprofen was on the cortisol concentrations of the mature Surgical bulls; concentrations were significantly reduced at 40 min (47 ± 7.2 vs. 71 ± 7.2 nmol/L for saline) and 2 h post-castration (24 ± 7.2, vs. 87 ± 7.2 nmol/L for saline). Ketoprofen, however, had no effect on the Band mature bulls, with their cortisol concentrations averaging 54 ± 5.1 nmol/L at 40 min and 92 ± 5.1 nmol/L at 2 h. Cortisol concentrations were also significantly elevated in the Band (83 ± 3.0 nmol/L) compared with Surgical mature bulls (57 ± 3.0 nmol/L) at weeks 2–4 post-castration. The timing of this elevation coincided with significantly elevated haptoglobin concentrations (mg/mL) in the Band bulls (2.97 ± 0.102 for mature bulls and 1.71 ± 0.025 for weaners, vs. 2.10 ± 0.102 and 1.45 ± 0.025 respectively for the Surgical treatment) and evidence of slow wound healing and sepsis in both the weaner (0.81 ± 0.089 not healed at week 4 for Band, 0.13 ± 0.078 for Surgical) and mature bulls (0.81 ± 0.090 at week 4 for Band, 0.38 ± 0.104 for Surgical). Overall, liveweight gains of both age groups were not affected by castration method. The findings of acute pain, chronic inflammation and possibly chronic pain in the mature bulls at least, together with poor wound healing in the Band bulls support behavioural findings reported in the accompanying paper and demonstrate that tension banding produces inferior welfare outcomes for weaner and mature bulls compared with surgical castration.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Formal description, compression and transformation of digital pictures

This paper describes the application of vector spaces over Galois fields, for obtaining a formal description of a picture in the form of a very compact, non-redundant, unique syntactic code. Two different methods of encoding are described. Both these methods consist in identifying the given picture as a matrix (called picture matrix) over a finite field. In the first method, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of this matrix are obtained. The eigenvector expansion theorem is then used to reconstruct the original matrix. If several of the eigenvalues happen to be zero this scheme results in a considerable compression. In the second method, the picture matrix is reduced to a primitive diagonal form (Hermite canonical form) by elementary row and column transformations. These sequences of elementary transformations constitute a unique and unambiguous syntactic code-called Hermite code—for reconstructing the picture from the primitive diagonal matrix. A good compression of the picture results, if the rank of the matrix is considerably lower than its order. An important aspect of this code is that it preserves the neighbourhood relations in the picture and the primitive remains invariant under translation, rotation, reflection, enlargement and replication. It is also possible to derive the codes for these transformed pictures from the Hermite code of the original picture by simple algebraic manipulation. This code will find extensive applications in picture compression, storage, retrieval, transmission and in designing pattern recognition and artificial intelligence systems.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Renormalization methods in KAM theory

It is well known that an integrable (in the sense of Arnold-Jost) Hamiltonian system gives rise to quasi-periodic motion with trajectories running on invariant tori. These tori foliate the whole phase space. If we perturb an integrable system, the Kolmogorow-Arnold-Moser (KAM) theorem states that, provided some non-degeneracy condition and that the perturbation is sufficiently small, most of the invariant tori carrying quasi-periodic motion persist, getting only slightly deformed. The measure of the persisting invariant tori is large together with the inverse of the size of the perturbation. In the first part of the thesis we shall use a Renormalization Group (RG) scheme in order to prove the classical KAM result in the case of a non analytic perturbation (the latter will only be assumed to have continuous derivatives up to a sufficiently large order). We shall proceed by solving a sequence of problems in which theperturbations are analytic approximations of the original one. We will finally show that the approximate solutions will converge to a differentiable solution of our original problem. In the second part we will use an RG scheme using continuous scales, so that instead of solving an iterative equation as in the classical RG KAM, we will end up solving a partial differential equation. This will allow us to reduce the complications of treating a sequence of iterative equations to the use of the Banach fixed point theorem in a suitable Banach space.

Boundedness of weakly singular integral operators on domains

The monograph dissertation deals with kernel integral operators and their mapping properties on Euclidean domains. The associated kernels are weakly singular and examples of such are given by Green functions of certain elliptic partial differential equations. It is well known that mapping properties of the corresponding Green operators can be used to deduce a priori estimates for the solutions of these equations. In the dissertation, natural size- and cancellation conditions are quantified for kernels defined in domains. These kernels induce integral operators which are then composed with any partial differential operator of prescribed order, depending on the size of the kernel. The main object of study in this dissertation being the boundedness properties of such compositions, the main result is the characterization of their Lp-boundedness on suitably regular domains. In case the aforementioned kernels are defined in the whole Euclidean space, their partial derivatives of prescribed order turn out to be so called standard kernels that arise in connection with singular integral operators. The Lp-boundedness of singular integrals is characterized by the T1 theorem, which is originally due to David and Journé and was published in 1984 (Ann. of Math. 120). The main result in the dissertation can be interpreted as a T1 theorem for weakly singular integral operators. The dissertation deals also with special convolution type weakly singular integral operators that are defined on Euclidean spaces.

Aspects of atomic decompositions and Bergman projections

The concept of an atomic decomposition was introduced by Coifman and Rochberg (1980) for weighted Bergman spaces on the unit disk. By the Riemann mapping theorem, functions in every simply connected domain in the complex plane have an atomic decomposition. However, a decomposition resulting from a conformal mapping of the unit disk tends to be very implicit and often lacks a clear connection to the geometry of the domain that it has been mapped into. The lattice of points, where the atoms of the decomposition are evaluated, usually follows the geometry of the original domain, but after mapping the domain into another this connection is easily lost and the layout of points becomes seemingly random. In the first article we construct an atomic decomposition directly on a weighted Bergman space on a class of regulated, simply connected domains. The construction uses the geometric properties of the regulated domain, but does not explicitly involve any conformal Riemann map from the unit disk. It is known that the Bergman projection is not bounded on the space L-infinity of bounded measurable functions. Taskinen (2004) introduced the locally convex spaces LV-infinity consisting of measurable and HV-infinity of analytic functions on the unit disk with the latter being a closed subspace of the former. They have the property that the Bergman projection is continuous from LV-infinity onto HV-infinity and, in some sense, the space HV-infinity is the smallest possible substitute to the space H-infinity of analytic functions. In the second article we extend the above result to a smoothly bounded strictly pseudoconvex domain. Here the related reproducing kernels are usually not known explicitly, and thus the proof of continuity of the Bergman projection is based on generalised Forelli-Rudin estimates instead of integral representations. The minimality of the space LV-infinity is shown by using peaking functions first constructed by Bell (1981). Taskinen (2003) showed that on the unit disk the space HV-infinity admits an atomic decomposition. This result is generalised in the third article by constructing an atomic decomposition for the space HV-infinity on a smoothly bounded strictly pseudoconvex domain. In this case every function can be presented as a linear combination of atoms such that the coefficient sequence belongs to a suitable Köthe co-echelon space.

Finitary Abstract Elementary Classes

The research in model theory has extended from the study of elementary classes to non-elementary classes, i.e. to classes which are not completely axiomatizable in elementary logic. The main theme has been the attempt to generalize tools from elementary stability theory to cover more applications arising in other branches of mathematics. In this doctoral thesis we introduce finitary abstract elementary classes, a non-elementary framework of model theory. These classes are a special case of abstract elementary classes (AEC), introduced by Saharon Shelah in the 1980's. We have collected a set of properties for classes of structures, which enable us to develop a 'geometric' approach to stability theory, including an independence calculus, in a very general framework. The thesis studies AEC's with amalgamation, joint embedding, arbitrarily large models, countable Löwenheim-Skolem number and finite character. The novel idea is the property of finite character, which enables the use of a notion of a weak type instead of the usual Galois type. Notions of simplicity, superstability, Lascar strong type, primary model and U-rank are inroduced for finitary classes. A categoricity transfer result is proved for simple, tame finitary classes: categoricity in any uncountable cardinal transfers upwards and to all cardinals above the Hanf number. Unlike the previous categoricity transfer results of equal generality the theorem does not assume the categoricity cardinal being a successor. The thesis consists of three independent papers. All three papers are joint work with Tapani Hyttinen.

Stochastic Filtering

The stochastic filtering has been in general an estimation of indirectly observed states given observed data. This means that one is discussing conditional expected values as being one of the most accurate estimation, given the observations in the context of probability space. In my thesis, I have presented the theory of filtering using two different kind of observation process: the first one is a diffusion process which is discussed in the first chapter, while the third chapter introduces the latter which is a counting process. The majority of the fundamental results of the stochastic filtering is stated in form of interesting equations, such the unnormalized Zakai equation that leads to the Kushner-Stratonovich equation. The latter one which is known also by the normalized Zakai equation or equally by Fujisaki-Kallianpur-Kunita (FKK) equation, shows the divergence between the estimate using a diffusion process and a counting process. I have also introduced an example for the linear gaussian case, which is mainly the concept to build the so-called Kalman-Bucy filter. As the unnormalized and the normalized Zakai equations are in terms of the conditional distribution, a density of these distributions will be developed through these equations and stated by Kushner Theorem. However, Kushner Theorem has a form of a stochastic partial differential equation that needs to be verify in the sense of the existence and uniqueness of its solution, which is covered in the second chapter.

Orbital diamagnetism of a charged Brownian particle undergoing a birth-death process

Considers the magnetic response of a charged Brownian particle undergoing a stochastic birth-death process. The latter simulates the electron-hole pair production and recombination in semiconductors. The authors obtain non-zero, orbital diamagnetism which can be large without violating the Van Leeuwen theorem (1921).

On the Rademacher maximal function

Tools known as maximal functions are frequently used in harmonic analysis when studying local behaviour of functions. Typically they measure the suprema of local averages of non-negative functions. It is essential that the size (more precisely, the L^p-norm) of the maximal function is comparable to the size of the original function. When dealing with families of operators between Banach spaces we are often forced to replace the uniform bound with the larger R-bound. Hence such a replacement is also needed in the maximal function for functions taking values in spaces of operators. More specifically, the suprema of norms of local averages (i.e. their uniform bound in the operator norm) has to be replaced by their R-bound. This procedure gives us the Rademacher maximal function, which was introduced by Hytönen, McIntosh and Portal in order to prove a certain vector-valued Carleson's embedding theorem. They noticed that the sizes of an operator-valued function and its Rademacher maximal function are comparable for many common range spaces, but not for all. Certain requirements on the type and cotype of the spaces involved are necessary for this comparability, henceforth referred to as the “RMF-property”. It was shown, that other objects and parameters appearing in the definition, such as the domain of functions and the exponent p of the norm, make no difference to this. After a short introduction to randomized norms and geometry in Banach spaces we study the Rademacher maximal function on Euclidean spaces. The requirements on the type and cotype are considered, providing examples of spaces without RMF. L^p-spaces are shown to have RMF not only for p greater or equal to 2 (when it is trivial) but also for 1 < p < 2. A dyadic version of Carleson's embedding theorem is proven for scalar- and operator-valued functions. As the analysis with dyadic cubes can be generalized to filtrations on sigma-finite measure spaces, we consider the Rademacher maximal function in this case as well. It turns out that the RMF-property is independent of the filtration and the underlying measure space and that it is enough to consider very simple ones known as Haar filtrations. Scalar- and operator-valued analogues of Carleson's embedding theorem are also provided. With the RMF-property proven independent of the underlying measure space, we can use probabilistic notions and formulate it for martingales. Following a similar result for UMD-spaces, a weak type inequality is shown to be (necessary and) sufficient for the RMF-property. The RMF-property is also studied using concave functions giving yet another proof of its independence from various parameters.

The Hamilton-Jacobi equation revisited

A new analysis of the nature of the solutions of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation of classical dynamics is presented based on Caratheodory’s theorem concerning canonical transformations. The special role of a principal set of solutions is stressed, and the existence of analogous results in quantum mechanics is outlined.

Characteristics of Proportional Weirs

A theorem termed the Geometrical Continuity Theorem is enunciated and proven. This theorem throws light on the aspects of the continuity of the proportional portion with the base weir portion. These two portions constitute the profile of a proportional weir. A weir of this type with circular bottom is designed. The theorem is used to establish the continuity at the junction of the proportional and the base weir portions of this weir. The coordinates of the weir profile are obtained by numerical methods and are furnished in tabular form for ready use by designers. The discharge passing through the weir is a linear function of the head. The verification of the assumed linear discharge-head relation is furnished for one of the three weirs with which experiments were conducted. The coefficient of discharge for this typical weir is found to be a constant with a value of 0.59.