Efficient search for statistically significant dependency rules in binary data

Analyzing statistical dependencies is a fundamental problem in all empirical science. Dependencies help us understand causes and effects, create new scientific theories, and invent cures to problems. Nowadays, large amounts of data is available, but efficient computational tools for analyzing the data are missing. In this research, we develop efficient algorithms for a commonly occurring search problem - searching for the statistically most significant dependency rules in binary data. We consider dependency rules of the form X->A or X->not A, where X is a set of positive-valued attributes and A is a single attribute. Such rules describe which factors either increase or decrease the probability of the consequent A. A classical example are genetic and environmental factors, which can either cause or prevent a disease. The emphasis in this research is that the discovered dependencies should be genuine - i.e. they should also hold in future data. This is an important distinction from the traditional association rules, which - in spite of their name and a similar appearance to dependency rules - do not necessarily represent statistical dependencies at all or represent only spurious connections, which occur by chance. Therefore, the principal objective is to search for the rules with statistical significance measures. Another important objective is to search for only non-redundant rules, which express the real causes of dependence, without any occasional extra factors. The extra factors do not add any new information on the dependence, but can only blur it and make it less accurate in future data. The problem is computationally very demanding, because the number of all possible rules increases exponentially with the number of attributes. In addition, neither the statistical dependency nor the statistical significance are monotonic properties, which means that the traditional pruning techniques do not work. As a solution, we first derive the mathematical basis for pruning the search space with any well-behaving statistical significance measures. The mathematical theory is complemented by a new algorithmic invention, which enables an efficient search without any heuristic restrictions. The resulting algorithm can be used to search for both positive and negative dependencies with any commonly used statistical measures, like Fisher's exact test, the chi-squared measure, mutual information, and z scores. According to our experiments, the algorithm is well-scalable, especially with Fisher's exact test. It can easily handle even the densest data sets with 10000-20000 attributes. Still, the results are globally optimal, which is a remarkable improvement over the existing solutions. In practice, this means that the user does not have to worry whether the dependencies hold in future data or if the data still contains better, but undiscovered dependencies.

Surface Discharge Studies with Uniform Field Electrodes at Low Pressures

An investigation of power frequency (50 Hz) surface partial discharges in dry air, using 21r/3 Rogowski profile electrodes in the low pressure range of 0.067 to 91.333 kPa, shows that for the discharges occurring symmetrically around the electrodes and just outside the uniform field region, the breakdown voltages are 20 to 30% lower than those accounted for by the usual Paschen values. Emphasis, therefore, has been given to modified values of breakdown voltages for any useful calculations. The effect of reduced pressure on inception voltage has been discussed and an attempt has been made to explain the difference between the observed and calculated values on the basis of a pressure-dependent secondary ionization coefficient. It is shown that increasing the insulation thickness in a critical pressure range (0.067 to 0.400 kPa) does not allow any significant increase in the discharge free working stress of the insulation system. At higher pressures (>0.400 kPa) the increase in inception voltage with thickness and pressure follows an equation which is expected to hold for other insulating materials as well.

Small-scale capture, transport and tank adaptation of live, medium-sized Scombrids using "Tuna Tubes"

The transport of live fish is a crucial step to establish fish culture in captivity, and is especially challenging for species that have not been commonly cultured before, therefore transport and handling methods need to be optimized and tailored. This study describes the use of tuna tubes for small-scale transport of medium-sized pelagic fish from the Scombridae family. Tuna tubes are an array of vertical tubes that hold the fish, while fresh seawater is pumped up the tubes and through the fish mouth and gills, providing oxygen and removing wastes. In this study, 19 fish were captured using rod and line and 42% of the captured fish were transported alive in the custom-designed tuna tubes to an on-shore holding tank: five mackerel tuna (Euthynnus affinis) and three leaping bonito (Cybiosarda elegans). Out of these, just three (15.8% of total fish) acclimatized to the tank's condition. Based on these results, we discuss an improved design of the tuna tubes that has the potential to increase survival rates and enable a simple and low cost method of transporting of live pelagic fish.

Religion Explained? : A Philosophical Appraisal of the Cognitive Science of Religion

This study examines philosophically the main theories and methodological assumptions of the field known as the cognitive science of religion (CSR). The study makes a philosophically informed reconstruction of the methodological principles of the CSR, indicates problems with them, and examines possible solutions to these problems. The study focuses on several different CSR writers, namely, Scott Atran, Justin Barrett, Pascal Boyer and Dan Sperber. CSR theorising is done in the intersection between cognitive sciences, anthropology and evolutionary psychology. This multidisciplinary nature makes CSR a fertile ground for philosophical considerations coming from philosophy of psychology, philosophy of mind and philosophy of science. The study begins by spelling out the methodological assumptions and auxiliary theories of CSR writers by situating these theories and assumptions in the nexus of existing approaches to religion. The distinctive feature of CSR is its emphasis on information processing: CSR writers claim that contemporary cognitive sciences can inform anthropological theorising about the human mind and offer tools for producing causal explanations. Further, they claim to explain the prevalence and persistence of religion by cognitive systems that undergird religious thinking. I also examine the core theoretical contributions of the field focusing mainly on the (1) “minimally counter-intuitiveness hypothesis” and (2) the different ways in which supernatural agent representations activate our cognitive systems. Generally speaking, CSR writers argue for the naturalness of religion: religious ideas and practices are widespread and pervasive because human cognition operates in such a way that religious ideas are easy to acquire and transmit. The study raises two philosophical problems, namely, the “problem of scope” and the “problem of religious relevance”. The problem of scope is created by the insistence of several critics of the CSR that CSR explanations are mostly irrelevant for explaining religion. Most CSR writers themselves hold that cognitive explanations can answer most of our questions about religion. I argue that the problem of scope is created by differences in explanation-begging questions: the former group is interested in explaining different things than the latter group. I propose that we should not stick too rigidly to one set of methodological assumptions, but rather acknowledge that different assumptions might help us to answer different questions about religion. Instead of adhering to some robust metaphysics as some strongly naturalistic writers argue, we should adopt a pragmatic and explanatory pluralist approach which would allow different kinds of methodological presuppositions in the study of religion provided that they attempt to answer different kinds of why-questions, since religion appears to be a multi-faceted phenomenon that spans over a variety of fields of special sciences. The problem of religious relevance is created by the insistence of some writers that CSR theories show religious beliefs to be false or irrational, whereas others invoke CSR theories to defend certain religious ideas. The problem is interesting because it reveals the more general philosophical assumptions of those who make such interpretations. CSR theories can (and have been) interpreted in terms of three different philosophical frameworks: strict naturalism, broad naturalism and theism. I argue that CSR theories can be interpreted inside all three frameworks without doing violence to the theories and that these frameworks give different kinds of results regarding the religious relevance of CSR theories.

Luke, The Friend of Sinners

I examine the portrayal of Jesus as a friend of toll collectors and sinners in the Third Gospel. I aim at a comprehensive view on the Lukan sinner texts, combining questions of the origin and development of these texts with the questions of Luke s theological message, of how the text functions as literature, and of the social-historical setting(s) behind the texts. Within New Testament scholarship researchers on the historical Jesus mostly still hold that a special mission to toll collectors and sinners was central in Jesus public activity. Within Lukan studies, M. Goulder, J. Kiilunen and D. Neale have claimed that this picture is due to Luke s theological vision and the liberties he took as an author. Their view is disputed by other Lukan scholars. I discuss methods which scholars have used to isolate the typical language of Luke s alleged written sources, or to argue for the source-free creation by Luke himself. I claim that the analysis of Luke s language does not help us to the origin of the Lukan pericopes. I examine the possibility of free creativity on Luke s part in the light of the invention technique used in ancient historiography. Invention was an essential part of all ancient historical writing and therefore quite probably Luke used it, too. Possibly Luke had access to special traditions, but the nature of oral tradition does not allow reconstruction. I analyze Luke 5:1-11; 5:27-32; 7:36-50; 15:1-32; 18:9-14; 19:1-10; 23:39-43. In most of these some underlying special tradition is possible though far from certain. It becomes evident that Luke s reshaping was so thorough that the pericopes as they now stand are decidedly Lukan creations. This is indicated by the characteristic Lukan story-telling style as well as by the strongly unified Lukan theology of the pericopes. Luke s sinners and Pharisees do not fit in the social-historical context of Jesus day. The story-world is one of polarized right and wrong. That Jesus is the Christ, representative of God, is an intrinsic part of the story-world. Luke wrote a theological drama inspired by tradition. He persuaded his audience to identify as (repenting) sinners. Luke's motive was that he saw the sinners in Jesus' company as forerunners of Gentile Christianity.

Eru Ilúvatar : Jumala J.R.R. Tolkienin legendariumissa

The purpose of my research is to inquire into the essence and activity of God in the legendarium of the English philologist and writer J.R.R. Tolkien (1892-1973). The legendarium, composed of Tolkien’s writings related to Middle-earth, was begun when he created two Elvish languages, Quenya based on Finnish, Sindarin based on Welsh. Tolkien developed his mythology inspired by Germanic myths and The Kalevala. It is a fictional ancient history set in our world. The legendarium is monotheistic: God is called Eru ‘The One’ and Ilúvatar ‘Father of All’. Eru is the same as the Christian God, for Tolkien wanted to keep his tales consistent with his faith. He said his works were Christian by nature, with the religious element absorbed into the story and the symbolism. In The Silmarillion, set in the primeval ages of Middle-earth, the theological aspects are more conspicuous, while in The Lord of the Rings, which brings the stories to an end, they are mostly limited to symbolic references. The legendarium is unified by its realistic outlook on creaturely abilities and hope expressing itself as humbly defiant resistance. ”The possibility of complexity or of distinctions in the nature of Eru” is a part of the legendarium. Eru Ilúvatar is Trinitarian, as per Tolkien’s faith. Without contextual qualifiers, Eru seems to refer to God the Father, like God in the Bible. Being the creator who dwells outside the world is attributed to Him. The Holy Spirit is the only Person of the Trinity bestown with names: the Flame Imperishable and the Secret Fire. When Eru creates the material world with His word, He sends the Flame Imperishable to burn at the heart of the world. The Secret Fire signifies the Creative Power that belongs to God alone, and is a part of Him. The Son, the Word, is not directly mentioned, but according to one writing Eru must step inside the world in order to save it from corruption, yet remain outside it at the same time. The inner structure of the legendarium refers to the need for a future salvation. The creative word of Eru, “Eä! Let these things Be!”, probably has a connection with the Logos in Christianity. Thus we can find three “distinctions” in Eru: a Creator who dwells outside the world, a Sustainer who dwells inside it and a Redeemer who shall step inside it. Some studies of Tolkien have claimed that Eru is distant and remote. This seems to hold water only partially. Ilúvatar, the Father of All, has a special relation with the Eruhíni, His Children, the immortal Elves and the mortal Men. He communicates with them directly only through the Valar, who resemble archangels. Nevertheless, only the Children of Eru can fight against evil, because their tragic fortunes turn evil into good. Even though religious activities are scarce among them, the fundamental faith and ultimate hope of the “Free Peoples” is directed towards Eru. He is present in the drama of history as the “Author of the Story”, who at times also interferes with its course through catastrophes and eucatastrophes, ‘good catastrophes’. Eru brings about a catastrophe when evil would otherwise bring good to an end, and He brings about a eucatasrophe when creaturely strength is not sufficent for victory. Victory over corruption is especially connected with mortal Men, of whom the most (or least) insignificant people are the Hobbits. However, because of the “primeval disaster” (that is, fall) of Mankind, ultimate salvation can only remain open, a hope for the far future.

Essays on Microcredit in Rural Bangladesh

This thesis is a collection of three essays on Bangladeshi microcredit. One of the essays examines the effect of microcredit on the cost of crime. The other two analyze the functioning mechanism of microcredit programs, i.e. credit allocation rules and credit recovery policy. In Essay 1, the demand for microcredit and its allocation rules is studied. Microcredit is claimed to be the most effective means of supplying credit to the poorest of the poor in rural Bangladesh. This fact has not yet been examined among households who demand microcredit. The results of this essay show that educated households are more likely to demand microcredit and its demand does not differ by sex. The results also show that microcredit programs follow different credit allocation rules for male and female applicants. Education is an essential characteristic for both sexes that credit programs consider in allocating credit. In Essay 2, the focus is to establish a link between microcredit and the incidence of rural crime in Bangladesh. The basic hypothesis is that microcredit programs jointly hold the group responsibility which provides an incentive for group members to protect each other from criminal gang in order to safeguard their own economic interests. The key finding of this essay is that the average cost of crime for non-borrowers is higher than that for borrowers. In particular, 10% increase in the credit reduces the costs of crime by 4.2%. The third essay analyzes the reasons of high repayment rate amid Bangladeshi microcredit programs. The existing literature argues that credit applicants are able to screen out the high risk applicants in the group formulation stage using their superior local information. In addition, due to the joint liability mechanism of the programs, group members monitor each others economic activities to ensure the minimal misuse of credit. The arguments in the literature are based on the assumption that once the credit is provided, credit programs have no further role in ensuring that repayments are honored by the group. In contrast, using survey data this essay documents that credit programs use in addition organizational pressures such as humiliation and harassment the non-payer to recover the unpaid installments. The results also show that the group mechanisms do not have a significant effect in recovering default dues.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

Adsorption isotherms-microscopic modelling

The phenomenon of adsorption is governed by the various interactions among the constituents of the interface and the forms of adsorption isotherms hold the clue to the nature of the se in teractions. An understanding of this phenomenon may be said to be complete only when the parameters occurring in such expres - sions for isotherms are interpretable in terms of molecular/electronic interactions.This objective viz. expressing the composition of the isotherm parameters through a microscopic modelling is by no means a simple one. Such a task is particularly made difficult in the case of charged interfaces where idealisation is difficult to make and, when made, not so easy to justify.

Literacy leadership and accountability practices: Holding onto ethics in ways that count

Despite the rhetoric of schools serving the needs of specific communities, it is evident that the work of teachers and principals is shaped by government imperatives to demonstrate success according to a set of standard ‘benchmarks’. In this chapter, we draw from our current study of new forms of educational leadership emerging in South Australian public primary schools to explore the ways in which test-based accountability requirements are being mediated by principals in schools that serve high poverty communities. Taking an institutional ethnography approach we focus on the everyday work of a principal and a literacy leader in one suburban primary school to show the complexity of the impact of national testing on practices of literacy leadership. We elaborate on the inescapable textual framings and tasks faced by the principal and literacy leader, and those that they create and modify – such as a common literacy agreement and ‘literacy chats’ between a literacy leader and classroom teacher – in order to ‘hold on to ethics’. We argue that while leaders’ and teachers’ everyday work is regulated by ‘ruling relations’ (Smith, 1999), it is also organic and responsive to the local context. We conclude with a reflection on the important situated work that school leaders do in mediating trans-local policies that might otherwise close down possibilities for engaging ethically with students and their learning in a particular school.

Complimentary collaborations: Teachers and researchers co-developing best practices in art education

Australia is currently experiencing a huge cultural shift as it moves from a State-based curriculum, to a national education system. The Australian State-based bodies that currently manage teacher registration, teacher education course accreditation, curriculum frameworks and syllabi are often complex organisations that hold conflicting ideologies about education and teaching. The development of a centralised system, complete with a single accreditation body and a national curriculum can be seen as a reaction to this complexity. At the time of writing, the Australian Curriculum is being rolled out in staggered phases across the states and territories of Australia. Phase one has been implemented, introducing English, Mathematics, History and Science. Subsequent phases (Humanities and Social Sciences, the Arts, Technologies, Health and Physical Education, Languages, and year 9-10 work studies) are intended to follow. Forcing an educational shift of this magnitude is no simple task; not least because the States and Territories have and continue to demonstrate varying levels of resistance to winding down their own curricula in favour of new content with its unfamiliar expectations and organisations. The full implementation process is currently far from over, and far from being fully resolved. The Federal Government has initiated a number of strategies to progress the implementation, such as the development of the Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership (AITSL) to aid professional educators to implement the new curriculum. AITSL worked with professional and peak specialist bodies to develop Illustrations of Practice (hereafter IoP) for teachers to access and utilise. This paper tells of the building of one IoP, where a graduate teacher and a university lecturer collaborated to construct ideas and strategies to deliver visual arts lessons to early childhood students in a low Socio- Economic Status [SES] regional setting and discusses the experience in terms of its potential for professional learning in art education.

Perceptions of destinations don’t change much over time

One of the most popular topics in tourism research is destination image. That is, measuring consumers’ perceptions of a destination. The importance of the topic is a no brainer given travellers are spoilt by choice of destinations, and that the images they hold of a place are as important as the tangible tourism features. This is underpinned by the old adage perception is reality, a theory promoted by two academics back in 1928 who proposed “what people believe to be true will be real in its consequences”. So, every place marketer knows consumer perceptions play a major role in the competitiveness of their destination.

Dissipative dynamics of a harmonic oscillator: A nonperturbative approach

Starting from a microscopic theory, we derive a master equation for a harmonic oscillator coupled to a bath of noninteracting oscillators. We follow a nonperturbative approach, proposed earlier by us for the free Brownian particle. The diffusion constants are calculated analytically and the positivity of the master equation is shown to hold above a critical temperature. We compare the long time behavior of the average kinetic and potential energies with known thermodynamic results. In the limit of vanishing oscillator frequency of the system, we recover the results of the free Brownian particle.

On the expressive power of behavioral profiles

Behavioral profiles have been proposed as a behavioral abstraction of dynamic systems, specifically in the context of business process modeling. A behavioral profile can be seen as a complete graph over a set of task labels, where each edge is annotated with one relation from a given set of binary behavioral relations. Since their introduction, behavioral profiles were argued to provide a convenient way for comparing pairs of process models with respect to their behavior or computing behavioral similarity between process models. Still, as of today, there is little understanding of the expressive power of behavioral profiles. Via counter-examples, several authors have shown that behavioral profiles over various sets of behavioral relations cannot distinguish certain systems up to trace equivalence, even for restricted classes of systems represented as safe workflow nets. This paper studies the expressive power of behavioral profiles from two angles. Firstly, the paper investigates the expressive power of behavioral profiles and systems captured as acyclic workflow nets. It is shown that for unlabeled acyclic workflow net systems, behavioral profiles over a simple set of behavioral relations are expressive up to configuration equivalence. When systems are labeled, this result does not hold for any of several previously proposed sets of behavioral relations. Secondly, the paper compares the expressive power of behavioral profiles and regular languages. It is shown that for any set of behavioral relations, behavioral profiles are strictly less expressive than regular languages, entailing that behavioral profiles cannot be used to decide trace equivalence of finite automata and thus Petri nets.

Pictures that ask the right questions

An article about the use of photographs as research in the writing of memoir. "I expect many people begin the writing of a memoir by looking through old photos. Pictures, after all, belong in the past, and they hold out the promise of delivering it to us again: everyone is younger, surrounded by yesterday’s world, a moment fixed in time. Even the size of the photo paper and printing tone belong back there, in a printer’s shop that doesn’t exist anymore. And yet, for the purpose of writing a memoir, the most useful pictures also reach beyond the past, and beyond their initial role in verifying your memories, or filling out the details. That is, they are more than an account. Such pictures seem to be asking questions about what happened next, in the moments and years after they were taken..."