GENETIC ARCHITECTURE, EVOLUTION AND MAINTENANCE OF A COLOR CLINE AT A CONTINENTAL SCALE

On a geological time scale the conditions on earth are very variable and biological patterns (for example the distributions of species) are very dynamic. Understanding large scale patterns of variation observed today thus requires a deep understanding of the historical factors that drove their evolution. In this thesis, we reevaluated the evolution and maintenance of a continental color cline observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) using population genetic tools. The colour cline spans from south-est Europe where most individual have pure white underparts to north and east Europe where most individuals have rufous-brown underparts. Our results globally showed that the old scenario, stipulating that the color cline evolved by secondary contact of two color morphs (white and rufous) that evolved in allopatry during the last ice age has to be revised. We collected samples of about 700 barn owls from the Western Palearctic to establish the first population genetic data set for this species. Individuals were genotyped at 22 microsatellites markers, at one mitochondrial gene, and at a candidate color gene. The color of each individuals was assessed and their sex determined by molecular methods. We first showed that the genetic variation in Western Europe is very limited compared to the heritable color variation. We found no evidences of different glacial lineages, and showed that selection must be involved in the maintenance of the color cline (chapter 1). Using computer simulations, we demonstrated that the post-glacial colonization of Europe occurred from the Iberian Peninsula and that the color cline could not have evolved by neutral demographic processes during this colonization (chapter 2). Finally we reevaluated the whole history of the establishment of the Western Palearctic variation of the barn owl (chapter 3): This study showed that all Western European barn owls descend from white barn owls phenotypes from the Middle East that colonized the Iberian Peninsula via North-Africa. Following the end of the last ice age (20'000 years ago), these white barn owls colonized Western Europe and under selection a novel rufous phenotype evolved (during or after the colonization). An important part of the color variation could be explained by a single mutation in the melanocortin-1-receptor (MC1R) gene that appeared during or after the colonization. The colonization of Europe reached until Greece, where the rufous birds encountered white ones (which reached Greece from the Middle East over the Bosporus) in a secondary contact zone. Our analyses show that white and rufous barn owls in Greece interbreed only to a limited extent. This suggests that barn owls are at the verge of becoming two species in Greece and demonstrates that European barn owls represent an incipient ring species around the Mediterranean. The revisited history of the establishment of the European barn owl color cline makes this model system remarkable for several aspects. It is a very clear example of strong local adaptation that can be achieved despite high gene flow (strong color and MC1R differentiation despite almost no neutral genetic differentiation). It also offers a wonderful model system to study the interactions between colonization processes and selection processes which have, for now, been remarkably understudied despite their potentially ubiquitous importance. Finally it represents a very interesting case in the speciation continuum and appeals for further studying the amount of gene flow that occurs between the color morphs in Greece. -- Sur l'échelle des temps géologiques, les conditions sur terre sont très variables et les patrons biologiques (telle que la distribution des espèces) sont très dynamiques. Si l'on veut comprendre des patrons que l'on peut observer à large échelle aujourd'hui, il est nécessaire de d'abord comprendre les facteurs historiques qui ont gouverné leur établissement. Dans cette thèse, nous allons réévaluer, grâce à des outils modernes de génétique des populations, l'évolution et la maintenance d'un cline de couleur continental observé chez l'effraie des clochers européenne (Tyto alba). Globalement, nos résultats montrent que le scenario accepté jusqu'à maintenant, qui stipule que le cline de couleur a évolué à partir du contact secondaire de deux morphes de couleur (blanches et rousses) ayant évolué en allopatrie durant les dernières glaciations, est à revoir. Afin de constituer le premier jeu de données de génétique des populations pour cette espèce, nous avons récolté des échantillons d'environ 700 effraies de l'ouest Paléarctique. Nous avons génotypé tous les individus à 22 loci microsatellites, sur un gène mitochondrial et sur un autre gène participant au déterminisme de la couleur. Nous avons aussi mesuré la couleur de tous les individus et déterminé leur sexe génétiquement. Nous avons tout d'abord pu montrer que la variation génétique neutre est négligeable en comparaison avec la variation héritable de couleur, qu'il n'existe qu'une seule lignée européenne et que de la sélection doit être impliquée dans le maintien du cline de couleur (chapitre 1). Grâce à des simulations informatiques, nous avons démontré que l'ensemble de l'Europe de l'ouest a été recolonisé depuis la Péninsule Ibérique après les dernières glaciations et que le cline de couleur ne peut pas avoir évolué par des processus neutre durant cette colonisation (chapitre 2). Finalement, nous avons réévalué l'ensemble de l'histoire postglaciaire de l'espèce dans l'ouest Paléarctique (chapitre 3): l'ensemble des effraies du Paléarctique descendent d'effraie claire du Moyen-Orient qui ont colonisé la péninsule ibérique en passant par l'Afrique du nord. Après la fin de la dernière glaciation (il y a 20'000 ans), ces effraies claires ont colonisé l'Europe de l'ouest et ont évolués par sélection le phénotype roux (durant ou après la colonisation). Une part importante de la variation de couleur peut être expliquée par une mutation sur le gène MC1R qui est apparue durant ou juste après la colonisation. Cette vague de colonisation s'est poursuivie jusqu'en Grèce où ces effraies rousses ont rencontré dans une zone de contact secondaire des effraies claires (qui sont remontées en Grèce depuis le Moyen-Orient via le Bosphore). Nos analyses montrent que le flux de gènes entre effraies blanches et rousses est limité en Grèce, ce qui suggère qu'elles sont en passe de former deux espèces et ce qui montre que les effraies constituent un exemple naissant de spéciation en anneaux autour de la Méditerranée. L'histoire revisitée des effraies des clochers de l'ouest Paléarctique en fait un système modèle remarquable pour plusieurs aspects. C'est un exemple très claire de forte adaptation locale maintenue malgré un fort flux de gènes (différenciation forte de couleur et sur le gène MC1R malgré presque aucune structure neutre). Il offre également un très bon système pour étudier l'interaction entre colonisation et sélection, un thème ayant été remarquablement peu étudié malgré son importance. Et il offre finalement un cas très intéressant dans le « continuum de spéciation » et il serait très intéressant d'étudier plus en détail l'importance du flux de gènes entre les morphes de couleur en Grèce.

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15

Tracing the Origin and Spread of Agriculture in Europe

The origins of early farming and its spread to Europe have been the subject of major interest for some time. The main controversy today is over the nature of the Neolithic transition in Europe: the extent to which the spread was, for the most part, indigenous and animated by imitatio (cultural diffusion) or else was driven by an influx of dispersing populations (demic diffusion). We analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the transition using radiocarbon dates from 735 early Neolithic sites in Europe, the Near East, and Anatolia. We compute great-circle and shortest-path distances from each site to 35 possible agricultural centers of origin—ten are based on early sites in the Middle East and 25 arehypothetical locations set at 58 latitude/longitude intervals. We perform a linear fit of distance versus age (and viceversa) for each center. For certain centers, high correlation coefficients (R . 0.8) are obtained. This implies that a steady rate or speed is a good overall approximation for this historical development. The average rate of the Neolithic spread over Europe is 0.6–1.3 km/y (95% confidence interval). This is consistent with the prediction of demic diffusion(0.6–1.1 km/y). An interpolative map of correlation coefficients, obtained by using shortest-path distances, shows thatthe origins of agriculture were most likely to have occurred in the northern Levantine/Mesopotamian area

Predictors of remission in the treatment of major depressive disorder: real-world evidence from a 6-month prospective observational study

BACKGROUND: This study examined potential predictors of remission among patients treated for major depressive disorder (MDD) in a naturalistic clinical setting, mostly in the Middle East, East Asia, and Mexico. METHODS: Data for this post hoc analysis were taken from a 6-month prospective, noninterventional, observational study that involved 1,549 MDD patients without sexual dysfunction at baseline in 12 countries worldwide. Depression severity was measured using the Clinical Global Impression of Severity and the 16-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report (QIDS-SR16). Depression-related pain was measured using the pain-related items of the Somatic Symptom Inventory. Remission was defined as a QIDS-SR16 score ≤5. Generalized estimating equation regression models were used to examine baseline factors associated with remission during follow-up. RESULTS: Being from East Asia (odds ratio [OR] 0.48 versus Mexico; P<0.001), a higher level of depression severity at baseline (OR 0.77, P=0.003, for Clinical Global Impression of Severity; OR 0.92, P<0.001, for QIDS-SR16), more previous MDD episodes (OR 0.92, P=0.007), previous treatments/therapies for depression (OR 0.78, P=0.030), and having any significant psychiatric and medical comorbidity at baseline (OR 0.60, P<0.001) were negatively associated with remission, whereas being male (OR 1.29, P=0.026) and treatment with duloxetine (OR 2.38 versus selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, P<0.001) were positively associated with remission. However, the association between Somatic Symptom Inventory pain scores and remission no longer appeared to be significant in this multiple regression (P=0.580), (P=0.008 in descriptive statistics), although it remained significant in a subgroup of patients treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (OR 0.97, P=0.023), but not in those treated with duloxetine (P=0.182). CONCLUSION: These findings are largely consistent with previous reports from the USA and Europe. They also highlight the potential mediating role of treatment with duloxetine on the negative relationship between depression-related pain and outcomes of depression.

Saako historiasta selvää? Monikulttuuriset yläkoululaiset historian lähteillä historian taidot motiivien, seurauksien, historian tulkintojen ja lähteiden luotettavuuden arvioinneissa

The research assesses the skills of upper comprehensive school pupils in history. The focus is on locating personal motives, assessing wider reasons hidden in historical sources and evaluating source reliability. The research also questions how a wide use of multiple sources affects pupils’ holistic understanding of historical phenomena. The participants were a multicultural group of pupils. The origins of their cultures can be traced to the Balkan, the Middle East, Asia and Europe. The number of native Finnish speakers and pupils speaking Finnish as their second language was almost equal. The multicultural composition provides opportunities to assess how culturally responsive learning history from sources is. The intercultural approach to learning in a multicultural setting emphasizes equality as a precondition for learning. In order to set assignments at least to some extent match with all participants only those answers were taken into account which were produced by pupils who had studied history for a similar period of time in the Finnish comprehensive school system. Due to the small number of participants (41), the study avoids wide generalizations. Nevertheless, possible cultural blueprints in pupils’ way of thinking are noted. The first test examined the skills of pupils to find motives for emigration. The results showed that for 7th graders finding reasons is not a problematic task. However, the number of reasons noticed and justifications varied. In addition, the way the pupils explained their choices was a distinguishing factor. Some pupils interpreted source material making use of previous knowledge on the issue, while other pupils based their analysis solely on the text handed and did not try to add their own knowledge. Answers were divided into three categories: historical, explanatory and stating. Historical answers combined smoothly previously learned historical knowledge to one’s own source analysis; explanatory answers often ignored a wider frame, although they were effective when explaining e.g. historical concepts. The stating answers only noticed motives from the sources and made no attempts to explain them historically. Was the first test culturally responsive? All pupils representing different cultures tackled the first source exam successfully, but there were some signs of how historical concepts are understood in a slightly different way if the pupil’s personal history has no linkage to the concepts under scrutiny. The second test focused on the history of Native Americans. The test first required pupils to recognize whether short source extracts (5) were written by Indians or Caucasians. Based on what they had already learned from North American history, the pupils did not find it hard to distinguish between the sources. The analysis of multiphase causes and consequences of the disputes between Native Americans and white Americans caused dispersion among pupils. Using two historical sources and combining historical knowledge from both of them simultaneously was cumbersome for many. The explanations of consequences can be divided into two groups: the ones emphasizing short term consequences and those placing emphasis on long term consequences. The short term approach was mainly followed by boys in every group. The girls mainly paid attention to long term consequences. The result suggests that historical knowledge in sources is at least to some extent read through role and gender lenses. The third test required pupils to explain in their own words how the three sources given differed in their account of living conditions in Nazi Germany, which turned out to be demanding for many pupils. The pupils’ stronghold was rather the assessment of source reliability and accounts why the sources approached the same events differently. All participants wrote critical and justified comments on reliability and aspects that might have affected the content of the sources. The pupils felt that the main reasons that affected source reliability were the authors’ ethnic background, nationality and profession. The assessment showed that pupils were well aware that position in a historical situation has an impact on historical accounts, but in certain cases the victim’s account was seen as a historical truth. The account of events by a historian was chosen most often as the most reliable source, but it was often justified leniently with an indication to professionalism rather than with clear ideas of how historians conduct accounts based on sources. In brief, the last source test demonstrates that pupils have a strong idea that the ethnicity or nationalism determines how people explained events of the past. It is also an implication that pupils understand how historical knowledge is interpretative. The results also imply that history can be analyzed from a neutral perspective. One’s own membership in an ethnical or religious group does not automatically mean that a person’s cultural identity excludes historical explanations if something in them contradicts with his or her identity. The second method of extracting knowledge of pupils’ historical thinking was an essay analysis. The analysis shows that an analytical account of complicated political issues, which often include a great number of complicated political concepts, leads more likely to an inconsistent structure in the written work of pupils. The material also demonstrates that pupils have a strong tendency to take a critical stance when assessing history. Historical empathy in particular is shown if history somehow has a linkage to young people, children or minorities. Some topics can also awake strong feelings, especially among pupils with emigrant background, if there is a linkage between one’s own personal history and that of the school; and occasionally a student’s historical experience or thoughts replaced school history. Using sources during history lessons at school seems to have many advantages. It enhances the reasoning skills of pupils and their skills to assess the nature of historical knowledge. Thus one of the main aims and a great benefit of source work is to encourage pupils to express their own ideas and opinions. To conclude, when assessing the skills of adolescents in history - their work with sources, comments on history, historical knowledge and finally their historical thinking - one should be cautious and avoid cut off score evaluations. One purpose of pursuing history with sources is to encourage pupils to think independently, which is a useful tool for further identity construction. The idea that pupils have the right to conduct their own interpretations of history can be partially understood as part of a wider learning process, justification to study history comes from extrinsic reasons. The intrinsic reason is history itself; in order to understand history one should have a basic understanding of history as a specific domain of knowledge. Using sources does not mean that knowing history is of secondary importance. Only a balance between knowing the contextual history, understanding basic key concepts and working with sources is a solid base to improve pupils’ historical understanding.

Strike hard, strike sure - Operation Musketeer : British military planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

Operation Musketeer, a combined joint Anglo-French operation aimed at regaining control of the Suez Canal in 1956, has received much attention from scholars. The most common approach to the crisis has been to examine the political dimension. The political events that led Prime Minister Anthony Eden’s cabinet to decide to use military force against the wishes of their superior American ally and in the face of American economic pressure and a Soviet threat to attack Paris and London with rockets have been analysed thoroughly. This is particularly the case because the ceasefire and eventual withdrawal were an indisputable defeat of British policy in the Middle East. The military operation not only ruined Prime Minister Eden’s career, but it also diminished the prestige of Britain. It was the beginning of the end, some claim. The British Empire would never be the same. As the consequences of using force are generally considered more important than the military operations themselves, very little attention has been paid to the military planning of Operation Musketeer. The difference between the number of publications on Operation Corporate of the Falklands War and Operation Musketeer is striking. Not only has there been little previous research on the military aspects of Musketeer, the conclusions drawn in the existing works have not reached a consensus. Some historians, such as Correlli Barnett, compare Musketeer to the utter failures of the Tudor landings and Gallipoli. Among significant politicians, Winston Churchill, who had retired from the prime ministership only a year before the Suez Crisis, described the operation as “the most ill-conceived and ill-executed imaginable”. Colin McInnes, a well-known author on British defence policy, represents the middle view when he describes the execution as “far from failure”. Finally, some, like Julian Thompson, the Commander of 3 Commando Brigade during the Falklands War, rate the military action itself as being successful. The interpretation of how successful the handling of the Suez Crisis was from the military point of view depends very much on the approach taken and the areas emphasised in the subject. Frequently, military operations are analysed in isolation from other events. The action of a country’s armed forces is separated from the wider context and evaluated without a solid point of comparison. Political consequences are often used as validated criteria, and complicated factors contributing to military performance are ignored. The lack of comprehensive research on the military action has left room for an analysis concentrating on the military side of the crisis.

Customer Segmentation in Industrial Markets - CASE: Labelstock Company

The aim of this thesis is to study segmentation in industrial markets and develop a segmenting method proposal and criteria case study for a labelstock manufacturing company. An industrial company is facing many different customers with varying needs. Market segmentation is a process for dividing a market into smaller groups in which customers have the same or similar needs. Segmentation gives tools to the marketer to better match the product or service more closely to the needs of the target market. In this thesis a segmentation tool proposal and segmenting criteria is case studied for labelstock company’s Europe, Middle East and Africa business area customers and market. In the developed matrix tool different customers are planned to be evaluated based on customer characteristic variables. The criteria for the evaluating matrix are based on the customer’s buying organizations characteristics and buying behaviour. There are altogether 13 variables in the evaluating matrix. As an example of variables there are loyalty, size of the customer, estimated growth of the customer purchases and customer’s decision-making and buying behaviour. These characteristic variables will help to identify market segments to target and the customers belonging to those segments.

Negotiating home and belonging. Young Kurds in Finland

This study looks at negotiation of belonging and understandings of home among a generation of young Kurdish adults who were born in Iraq, Iran, and Turkey and who reached adulthood in Finland. The young Kurds taking part in the study belong to the generation of migrants who moved to Finland in their childhood and early teenage years from the region of Kurdistan and elsewhere in the Middle East, then grew to adulthood in Finland. In theoretical terms, the study draws broadly from three approaches: transnationalism, intersectionality, and narrativity. Transnationalism refers to individuals’ cross-border ties and interaction extending beyond nationstates’ borders. Young people of migrant background, it has been suggested, are raised in a transnational space that entails cross-border contacts, ties, and visits to the societies of departure. How identities and feelings of belonging become formed in relation to the transnational space is approached with an intersectional frame, for examination of individuals’ positionings in terms of their intersecting attributes of gender, age/generation, and ethnicity, among others. Focus on the narrative approach allows untangling how individuals make sense of their place in the social world and how they narrate their belonging in terms of various mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion, including institutional arrangements and discursive categorisation schemes. The empirical data for this qualitative study come from 25 semi-structured thematic interviews that were conducted with 23 young Kurdish adults living in Turku and Helsinki between 2009 and 2011. The interviewees were aged between 19 and 28 years at the time of interviewing. Interview themes involved topics such as school and working life, family relations and language-learning, political activism and citizenship, transnational ties and attachments, belonging and identification, and plans for the future and aspirations. Furthermore, data were collected from observations during political demonstrations and meetings, along with cultural get-togethers. The data were analysed via thematic analysis. The findings from the study suggest that young Kurds express a strong sense of ‘Kurdishness’ that is based partially on knowing the Kurdish language and is informed by a sense of cultural continuity in the diaspora setting. Collective Kurdish identity narratives, particularly related to the consciousness of being a marginalised ‘other’ in the context of the Middle East, are resonant in young interviewees’ narrations of ‘Kurdishness’. Thus, a sense of ‘Kurdishness’ is drawn from lived experiences indexed to a particular politico-historical context of the Kurdish diaspora movements but also from the current situation of Kurdish minorities in the Middle East. On the other hand, young Kurds construct a sense of belonging in terms of the discursive constructions of ‘Finnishness’ and ‘otherness’ in the Finnish context. The racialised boundaries of ‘Finnishness’ are echoed in young Kurds’ narrations and position them as the ‘other’ – namely, the ‘immigrant’, ‘refugee’, or ‘foreigner’ – on the basis of embodied signifiers (specifically, their darker complexions). This study also indicates that young Kurds navigate between gendered expectations and norms at home and outside the home environment. They negotiate their positionings through linguistic repertoires – for instance, through mastery of the Finnish language – and by adjusting their behaviour in light of the context. This suggests that young Kurds adopt various forms of agency to display and enact their belonging in a transnational diaspora space. Young Kurds’ narrations display both territorially-bounded and non-territorially-bounded elements with regard to the relationship between identity and locality. ‘Home’ is located in Finland, and the future and aspirations are planned in relation to it. In contrast, the region of Kurdistan is viewed as ‘homeland’ and as the place of origins and roots, where temporary stays and visits are a possibility. The emotional attachments are forged in relation to the country (Finland) and not so much relative to ‘Finnishness’, which the interviewees considered an exclusionary identity category. Furthermore, identification with one’s immediate place of residence (city) or, in some cases, with a religious identity as ‘Muslim’ provides a more flexible venue for identification than does identifying oneself with the (Finnish) nation.

Survey of trace element and dietetic fiber composition of “Leblebi” which is a local snack food consumed in Turkey

Abstract In Turkey and several Middle East countries' people consume “leblebi” which is a traditional snack food made from chickpeas (Cicer arietinum L.). Chickpea products are highly nutritive and a cheap food for human consumption and have become an essential part of daily diets in the world. The present study aims to determine the chemical, nutritional and dietary composition of fifty leblebi samples marketed in Turkey. Protein values of the leblebi ranged from 19.4 to 23.9% dehulled and 20.3 to 20.8% for nondehulled leblebi while a value of 19.1% was recorded for chickpeas. Mineral results showed that Potassium (K) was the most abundant element in leblebi ranging from 6514 to 14431 mg/kg. The amount of dietary components neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF), acid detergent lignin (ADL) and cellulose did not vary much between the samples analyzed.

Öljyn markkinahintaan vaikuttavat tekijät (1971-2015)

Tässä kandidaatintyössä käsitellään raakaöljyn markkinahintaan vaikuttavia tekijöitä sekä hinnan kehittymistä ja tekijöitä merkittävien hinnanmuutosten taustalla vuodesta 1971 lähtien. Tarkastelun ajankohdan aluksi on valittu 1971 koska tuolloin Yhdysvallat saavuttivat öljyntuotantonsa huipun ja tulivat samalla riippuvaiseksi tuontiöljystä. Kyseinen muutoksen kautta Yhdysvallat eivät enää pystyneet vaikuttamaan öljyn hintaan, ja vaikutusvalta siirtyi öljynviejämaiden yhdistys Opecille. Työssä tehdään katsaus myös maailmna raakaöljyn tuotantoon, kuljetukseen, kulutukseen, jatkojalostukseen sekä raakaöljyn lopullisiin käyttökohteisiin. Lisäksi tarkastelun kohteena on tulevaisuuden näkymät raakaöljyn hinnalle. Raakaöljy kattaa suurimman osan maailman primäärienergian kulutuksesta ja on erittäin tärkeässä asemassa nykypäivän yhteiskunnille. Öljymarkkinoilla hintaan vaikuttaa kysynnän ja tarjonnan tasapaino kuten muillakin hyödykkeillä, mutta erityispiirteenä öljymarkkinoilla tarjonta on korostetun keskeisessä asemassa. Öljyn hintaan vaikuttaa myös monia muitakin tekijöitä, ja öljyn hinnan merkittävät muutokset ovat monesti seurausta useamman tekijän yhteisvaikutuksesta.

Immigration, origines nationales et marché du travail: la présence en emploi des immigrants de la catégorie des travailleurs sélectionnés

Basé sur l’approche des parcours de vie, le présent mémoire se veut une étude du processus par lequel les inégalités fondées sur l’ethnicité se déploient dans le marché du travail au Québec. Faites à partir des données de l’Enquête sur les travailleurs sélectionnés (n=1541), des régressions logistiques à effets aléatoires évaluent l’influence de la région de naissance des nouveaux immigrants sur la présence en emploi tout au long des quatre premières années et demie de séjour au Québec. Les résultats obtenus démontrent que la présence en emploi est influencée par la région de naissance. Quatre profils principaux ressortent. Les travailleurs sélectionnés provenant d’Europe de l’Ouest et des États-Unis, catégorie de référence, bénéficient d’une situation relativement favorable. Les répondants originaires du Maghreb, désavantagés au cours de la première année, verront leur situation relative s’améliorer au fil du temps, sans pour autant atteindre une présence en emploi équivalente à celle de la catégorie de référence. Les travailleurs sélectionnés provenant d’Europe de l’Est et ex-URSS, d’Asie de l’Est et Océanie et d’Asie de l’Ouest et Moyen-Orient sont désavantagés durant la première année. Cette situation demeura au même niveau tout au long de la période d’observation. Les travailleurs sélectionnés originaires d’Afrique sub-saharienne et Amérique (sauf États-Unis) débuteront leur séjour dans une position défavorable et verront leur situation relative se détériorer au fil du temps.

La guerre en Irak peut-elle être justifiée comme un cas d’intervention humanitaire ?

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Elf ERAP en Irak, de 1968 à 1977

Dès sa création en 1966, l’ERAP s’est fixé pour but d’accroître la production du pétrole « franc », en diversifiant ses sources d’approvisionnement. Un tel objectif prend une tournure cruciale dès lors que les rapports tendus entre le groupe français et les autorités algériennes semblent menacer ses acquis dans le Sahara. Toutefois, se tailler une place sur le marché mondial semble à cette époque une tâche ardue, voire improbable, puisque les espaces les plus pétrolifères sont déjà occupés par les grandes sociétés, dites Majors. Néanmoins, la société d’État française réussit à s’implanter dans plusieurs pays producteurs, dont l’Irak en 1968, jusqu’alors considéré comme la chasse gardée de la Compagnie française des pétroles (CFP). Aussi, l’expérience irakienne, suite à l’insuccès en Algérie, incite Elf ERAP à se concentrer dans les pays pétroliers de l’Afrique subsaharienne et en Mer du Nord. Le 3 février 1968, Elf ERAP signe un accord avec la compagnie d’État pétrolière, INOC, pour se charger de la prospection et de l’exploitation d’une partie du territoire confisqué par l’État irakien à la puissante Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC). En contrepartie de ses apports financiers et techniques, Elf ERAP sera rémunérée par un approvisionnement garanti en pétrole irakien : il s’agit d’un nouveau genre de partenariat, dit « contrat d’agence ». Ce dernier succède au système classique des concessions et vaut à la société d’État un franc succès dans son projet de pénétration au Moyen Orient. Très vite, les prospections donnent lieu à la découverte de gisements. La production démarre en 1976 et s’élève à 5 millions de tonnes en 1977. Dès lors, Elf ERAP, devenue la SNEA, peut envisager avec optimisme son avenir énergétique, puisque sa sécurité d’approvisionnement est, en partie, assurée par le marché irakien. Mais, contre toute attente, le groupe d’État français se retire de l’affaire en mai 1977, laissant place à l’INOC, qui prend en charge le projet deux ans avant la date prévue par le contrat initial de 1968. Ce sujet de recherche consiste à éclaircir le rôle d’opérateur joué par l’ERAP en Irak, entre 1968 et 1977. Pour tenter d’expliquer le départ prématuré d’Elf Irak, il nous faut identifier les facteurs endogènes et exogènes qui ont pu motiver une telle décision. Autrement dit, la société d’État aurait-elle subi les revers de ses propres choix énergétiques ou un tel dénouement serait-il imputable à la politique pétrolière irakienne? Quelles sont les implications de la conjoncture pétrolière internationale dans le cas d’un tel retrait? Aidée des archives historiques d’Elf et de TOTAL, nous sommes arrivée à la conclusion que la compression du marché pétrolier, entre distributeurs et producteurs, au cours des années 1970, a considérablement nui à la rentabilité des contrats intermédiaires du type agence.

Ethique et Conflits, leçons de la Muqaddima d'Ibn Khaldûn

Ibn Khaldûn(1332-1406) fut homme d’Etat et historien des conflits et des changements politiques au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord. Il a écrit la Muqaddima, une vaste analyse du déclin de la civilisation arabe. Dans cet ouvrage l’ «éthique du Juste » est présentée comme l’obéissance à la loi et l’application des sciences rationnelles à la tradition. Ceci le mène à condamner l’ « éthique du Bien » en tant que calcul de son propre bonheur. Le conflit actuel reflète bien ce dualisme sous de nouvelles formes d’eudémonisme telle que l’utilitarisme. Sa théorie du changement politique et des conflits est toujours d’actualité : le développement économique conduit à la destruction des dynasties au pouvoir ; ce dernier repose sur l’Asabiya, une forme spécifique du capital social. Le pouvoir politique dure trois générations et connaît une évolution faite d’essor, d’apogée et de déclin. Cette théorie des « trois phases » du développement permet de mieux comprendre les conflits que connaît actuellement le monde arabe.