Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Consumer resistance to mobile commerce services

Oheinen opinnäytetyö on kvalitatiivinen tutkimus kuluttajavastarinnasta mobiilin kaupankäynnin palveluja kohtaan. Tutkimus kohdistuu läntisiin kulttuureihin, joissa kyseisen innovatiivisen palveluryhmän leviämistä tukevat monet aikaisemmat innovaatiot kuten matkapuhelin, Internet, digitaaliset pankkipalvelut. Tutkimus esittelee innovaatioiden vastarintatekijöitä ihmisen luonnollisena reaktiona tämän vakiintuneita elämäntapoja mullistavia keksintöjä kohtaan nimenomaan läntisissä kulttuureissa, joissa kuluttajat ovat perinteisesti hyvin teknologiamyönteisiä. Toisaalta tutkimusalueella on havaittavissa sosiaalisten ryhmien pirstoutuminen yhä pienemmiksi alaryhmiksi, mikä voi hidastaa sosiaalista oppimista. Tutkimus vastaa todelliseen tutkimusaukkoon. Aihe on samalla sekä ajankohtainen että relevantti vastatessaan nykyisin käytävään utopistiseen keskusteluun digitaalisen informaatioyhteiskunnan kehittymisestä ja merkityksestä modernille ihmiskunnalle. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen eksploratiivinen viitekehys rakentuu valikoiduista uusien tuotteiden ja palvelujen kehittämisen, palvelumarkkinoinnin ja sosiaalisen oppimisen teorioista sekä innovaatio- kommunikaatioteorioista. Empiirisen osan muodostavat kansainvälisten markkinatutkimuslaitosten ja haastateltujen asiantuntijoiden näkemykset alan kehityksestä. Tutkimus osoittaa, että kuluttajat eivät ole valmiita vastaanottamaan kehittyvien teknologioiden mahdollistamia mobiilin kaupankäynnin palveluita ennen kuin ne vastaavat kuluttajien perustarpeisiin ja rakenteelliset vastarintatekijät (alhainen käytettävyys, matala lisäarvo, koetut riskit, perinnevastarinta, palveluryhmän huono mielikuva) on poistettu. Tutkimus esittää, että mobiilin kaupankäynnin alalla toimivien yritysten tulisi työskennellä yhteistyössä keskenään ja kuluttajien kanssa luodakseen kuluttajien tarpeita ja toiveita vastaavia turvallisiksi koettuja mobiilin kaupankäynnin palveluita. Tutkimus ehdottaa, että kyselytutkimusten ohella käytettäisiin havaintomenetelmiä, jotta teknologiat voitaisiin valjastaa kuluttajien tarpeita ja kulutustottumuksia vastaaviksi.

The Strategic Intent and Launching of a Knowledge Management Tool in a Complex Organisation, case Stora Enso Consumer Boards

Informaatiotulva ja organisaation monimutkaisuus luoneet tarpeen tietämyksen hallinnalle. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tunnistaa muutostarpeet, jotka portaalin käyttöönotto tietämyksenhallintatyökaluna luo. Tutkimuksessa verrataan myös uusia työkaluja olemassa oleviin sekä arvioidaan organisaation kykyä siirtää tietämystä virtuaalisesti. Kirjallisuutta vastaavanlaisista projekteista ei ole ollut saatavilla, sillä käyttöönotettava teknologia on melko uutta. Samaa teknologiaa on käytössä hieman eri alueella, kuin tässä projektissa on tavoitteena. Tutkimus on tapaustutkimus, jonka pääasialliset lähteet ovat erilaisissa kokouksissa tuotettuja dokumentteja. Tutkija on osallistunut aktiivisesti projektityöhön, joten osa taustatiedoista perustuu tutkijan huomioihin sekä vielä keskusteluihin. Teoriaosassa käsitellään tietämyksen jakamista tietämyksen hallinnan ja virtuaalisuuden näkökulmasta. Muutoksen hallintaa on käsitelty lyhyesti tietämyksenhallintatyökalun käyttöönotossa. Tutkimus liittyy Stora Enso Consumer Boardsin tietämyksen hallintaprojektiin.

INFLUENCE OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE BENEFITS OF CONSUMING FRUIT ON CONSUMER PREFERENCES IN TEMUCO, REGION OF THE ARAUCANÍA

ABSTRACT With the aim of identifying strategies to increase fruit consumption in Temuco, consumer segments were classified according to the importance and preference of theattributes type of fruit, package/ brand, benefit associated with fruit consumption and price. A survey was applied to 400 people in Temuco,Chile, distributed using a simple allocation: 200 working adults and 200university students. The questionnaire included the SWFL (Satisfaction with Food-related Life) scale, respondents’ fruit consumption habits and their characteristics. Using conjoint and cluster analyses, three segments were distinguished: Group 1 (22.0%) gave greatest importance to the package/brand and preferred themessage “prevents diseases” and “without information”; Group 2 (47.5%) gave greatest importance to the package/brand and preferred the message “prevents diseases”; Group 3 (30.5%) assigned greatest importance to the price and preferred the message “contains antioxidants”. The segments differed in their level of satisfaction with food-related life, self-declared lifestyle, age and presence of university students. The results provide input to promote fruit consumption in working adults and university students.

Image and value of product brand in industrial markets: Case Stora Enso Consumer Packaging Boards

TUTKIMUKSEN TAVOITTEET Tutkielman tavoitteena oli luoda ensin yleiskäsitys tuotemerkkimarkkinoinnin roolista teollisilla markkinoilla, sekä suhdemarkkinoinnin merkityksestä teollisessa merkkituotemarkkinoinnissa. Toisena oleellisena tavoitteena oli kuvata teoreettisesti merkkituoteidentiteetin rakenne teollisessa yrityksessä ja sen vaikutukset myyntihenkilöstöön, ja lisäksi haluttiin tutkia tuotemerkkien lisäarvoa sekä asiakkaalle että myyjälle. Identiteetti ja sen vaikutukset, erityisesti imago haluttiin tutkia myös empiirisesti. LÄHDEAINEISTO JA TUTKIMUSMENETELMÄT Tämän tutkielman teoreettinen osuus perustuu kirjallisuuteen, akateemisiin julkaisuihin ja aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin; keskittyen merkkituotteiden markkinointiin, identiteettiin ja imagoon, sekä suhdemarkkinointiin osana merkkituotemarkkinointia. Tutkimuksen lähestymistapa on kuvaileva eli deskriptiivinen ja sekä kvalitatiivinen että kvantitatiivinen. Tutkimus on tapaustutkimus, jossa caseyritykseksi valittiin kansainvälinen pakkauskartonki-teollisuuden yritys. Empiirisen osuuden toteuttamiseen käytettiin www-pohjaista surveytä, jonka avulla tietoja kerättiin myyntihenkilöstöltä case-yrityksessä. Lisäksi empiiristä osuutta laajennettiin tutkimalla sekundäärilähteitä kuten yrityksen sisäisiä kirjallisia dokumentteja ja tutkimuksia. TULOKSET. Teoreettisen ja empiirisen tutkimuksen tuloksena luotiin malli jota voidaan hyödyntää merkkituotemarkkinoinnin päätöksenteon tukena pakkauskartonki-teollisuudessa. Teollisen brandinhallinnan tulee keskittyä erityisesti asiakas-suhteiden brandaukseen – tätä voisi kutsua teolliseksi suhdebrandaukseksi. Tuote-elementit ja –arvot, differointi ja positiointi, sisäinen yrityskuva ja viestintä ovat teollisen brandi-identiteetin peruskiviä, jotka luovat brandi-imagon. Case-yrityksen myyntihenkilöstön tuote- ja yritysmielikuvat osoittautuivat kokonaisuudessaan hyviksi. Paras imago on CKB tuotteilla, kun taas heikoin on WLC tuotteilla. Teolliset brandit voivat luoda monenlaisia lisäarvoja sekä asiakas- että myyjäyritykselle.

Spontaneous cell polarization: Feedback control of Cdc42 GTPase breaks cellular symmetry.

Spontaneous polarization without spatial cues, or symmetry breaking, is a fundamental problem of spatial organization in biological systems. This question has been extensively studied using yeast models, which revealed the central role of the small GTPase switch Cdc42. Active Cdc42-GTP forms a coherent patch at the cell cortex, thought to result from amplification of a small initial stochastic inhomogeneity through positive feedback mechanisms, which induces cell polarization. Here, I review and discuss the mechanisms of Cdc42 activity self-amplification and dynamic turnover. A robust Cdc42 patch is formed through the combined effects of Cdc42 activity promoting its own activation and active Cdc42-GTP displaying reduced membrane detachment and lateral diffusion compared to inactive Cdc42-GDP. I argue the role of the actin cytoskeleton in symmetry breaking is not primarily to transport Cdc42 to the active site. Finally, negative feedback and competition mechanisms serve to control the number of polarization sites.

Feblesa de tutories: manca de feedback i autoregulació en l'estudiant d'infermeria. Valoració de l'avaluació continuada en l'assignatura Ciències Psicosocials Aplicades a la Salut en el Grau d'Infermeria (EEES), (2009-2010)

Resum: En el nou model derivat de l"Espai Europeu d"Educació Superior (EEES), l"ensenyament aprenentatge (E-A) es centra en l"estudiant, enfront del rol més destacat del professor en l"ensenyament tradicional. El procés d"experimentació al que assistim en el nostre medi, requereix la valoració de les primeres experiències. Objectiu: L"objectiu d"aquest estudi és identificar si la metodologia utilitzada en l"assignatura Ciències Psicosocials Aplicades a la Salut, en el Grau d"Infermeria a l"Escola d" infermeria de la Universitat de Barcelona, està ben enfocada per assolir una avaluació continuada de qualitat. Metodologia: Es presenta a traves d"un estudi descriptiu. La població estudiada mitjançant un qüestionari, ha estat els estudiants dels quatre grups de primer curs, del primer any de desenvolupament del Grau d"Infermeria en el nostre Centre, passades el curs acadèmic 2009-2010, amb una mostra total de 221 alumnes. Conclusions: Els resultats permeten tres franges interpretatives: 1) qualificació de notable que fa referència a la modalitat disciplinar i experiència docent del professorat, 2) qualificació entre notable i aprovat referida a la metodologia didàctica i organitzativa, 3) qualificació d"aprovat que fa referència a les tutories.

Feblesa de tutories: manca de feedback i autoregulació en l'estudiant d'infermeria. Valoració de l'avaluació continuada en l'assignatura Ciències Psicosocials Aplicades a la Salut en el Grau d'Infermeria (EEES), (2009-2010)

Resum: En el nou model derivat de l"Espai Europeu d"Educació Superior (EEES), l"ensenyament aprenentatge (E-A) es centra en l"estudiant, enfront del rol més destacat del professor en l"ensenyament tradicional. El procés d"experimentació al que assistim en el nostre medi, requereix la valoració de les primeres experiències. Objectiu: L"objectiu d"aquest estudi és identificar si la metodologia utilitzada en l"assignatura Ciències Psicosocials Aplicades a la Salut, en el Grau d"Infermeria a l"Escola d" infermeria de la Universitat de Barcelona, està ben enfocada per assolir una avaluació continuada de qualitat. Metodologia: Es presenta a traves d"un estudi descriptiu. La població estudiada mitjançant un qüestionari, ha estat els estudiants dels quatre grups de primer curs, del primer any de desenvolupament del Grau d"Infermeria en el nostre Centre, passades el curs acadèmic 2009-2010, amb una mostra total de 221 alumnes. Conclusions: Els resultats permeten tres franges interpretatives: 1) qualificació de notable que fa referència a la modalitat disciplinar i experiència docent del professorat, 2) qualificació entre notable i aprovat referida a la metodologia didàctica i organitzativa, 3) qualificació d"aprovat que fa referència a les tutories.

Nutrient enrichment and water depth modify consumer control in rocky shore macroalgal communities

The objective of my thesis is to assess mechanisms of ecological community control in macroalgal communities in the Baltic Sea. In the top-down model, predatory fish feed on invertebrate mesograzers, releasing algae partly from grazing pressure. Such a reciprocal relationship is called trophic cascade. In the bottom-up model, nutrients increase biomass in the food chain. The nutrients are first assimilated by algae and, via food chain, increase also abundance of grazers and predators. Previous studies on oceanic shores have described these two regulative mechanisms in the grazer - alga link, but how they interact in the trophic cascades from fish to algae is still inadequately known. Because the top-down and bottom-up mechanisms are predicted to depend on environmental disturbances, such as wave stress and light, I have studied these models at two distinct water depths. There are five factorial field experiments behind the thesis, which were all conducted in the Finnish Archipelago Sea. In all the experiments, I studied macroalgal colonization - either density, filament length or biomass - on submerged colonization substrates. By excluding predatory fish and mesograzers from the algal communities, the studies compared the strength of the top-down control to natural algal communities. A part of the experimental units were, in addition, exposed to enriched nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, which enabled testing of bottom-up control. These two models of community control were further investigated in shallow (<1 m) and deep (ca. 3 m) water. Moreover, the control mechanisms were also expected to depend on grazer species. Therefore different grazer species were enclosed into experimental units and their impacts on macroalgal communities were followed specifically. The community control in the Baltic rocky shores was found to follow theoretical predictions, which have not been confirmed by field studies before. Predatory fish limited grazing impact, which was seen as denser algal communities and longer algal filaments. Nutrient enrichment increased density and filament length of annual algae and, thus, changed the species composition of the algal community. The perennial alga Fucus vesiculosusA and the red alga Ceramium tenuicorne suffered from the increased nutrient availabilities. The enriched nutrient conditions led to denser grazer fauna, thereby causing strong top-down control over both the annual and perennial macroalgae. The strength of the top-down control seemed to depend on the density and diversity of grazers and predators as well as on the species composition of macroalgal assemblages. The nutrient enrichment led to, however, weaker limiting impact of predatory fish on grazer fauna, because fish stocks did not respond as quickly to enhanced resources in the environment as the invertebrate fauna. According to environmental stress model, environmental disturbances weaken the top-down control. For example, on a wave-exposed shore, wave stress causes more stress to animals close to the surface than deeper on the shore. Mesograzers were efficient consumers at both the depths, while predation by fish was weaker in shallow water. Thus, the results supported the environmental stress model, which predicts that environmental disturbance affects stronger the higher a species is in the food chain. This thesis assessed the mechanisms of community control in three-level food chains and did not take into account higher predators. Such predators in the Baltic Sea are, for example, cormorant, seals, white-tailed sea eagle, cod and salmon. All these predatory species were recently or are currently under intensive fishing, hunting and persecution, and their stocks have only recently increased in the region. Therefore, it is possible that future densities of top predators may yet alter the strengths of the controlling mechanisms in the Baltic littoral zone.

Innovation process management of complex consumer products and services in new innovation paradigm – case location based business

Innovation is the word of this decade. According to innovation definitions, without positive sales impact and meaningful market share the company’s product or service has not been an innovation. Research problem of this master thesis is to find out what is the innovation process of complex new consumer products and services in new innovation paradigm. The objective is to get answers to two research questions: 1) What are the critical success factors what company should do when it is implementing the paradigm change in mass markets consumer business with complex products and services? 2) What is the process or framework one firm could follow? The research problem is looked from one company’s innovation creation process, networking and organization change management challenges point of views. Special focus is to look the research problem from an existing company perspective which is entering new business area. Innovation process management framework of complex new consumer products and services in new innovation paradigm has been created with support of several existing innovation theories. The new process framework includes the critical innovation process elements companies should take into consideration in their daily activities when they are in their new business innovation implementing process. Case company location based business implementation activities are studied via the new innovation process framework. This case study showed how important it is to manage the process, look how the target market and the competition in it is developing during company’s own innovation process, make decisions at right time and from beginning plan and implement the organization change management as one activity in the innovation process. In the end this master thesis showed that all companies need to create their own innovation process master plan with milestones and activities. One plan does not fit all, but all companies can start their planning from the new innovation process what was introduced in this master thesis.

Feedback i oportunitats de millora: una avaluació orientada a l"aprenentatge actiu

This paper analyzes an innovative experience of formative assessment aimed at improving the teaching of Statistics, which could be easily extrapolated to other studies. We detail the implementation of the double correction, consisting of correcting students' work twice. With the first correction, carried out by classmates according to a rubric developed by the academic, possible errors or deficiencies are discovered, and students are provided with a feedback that allows them to correct and improve their work before being graded by the teacher; whereas in the second correction of the work, once upgraded, the professor evaluates and grades the work. As a result, there is a significant improvement in the quality of students" works, and an active learning from their own mistakes. Both contents and competencies are reinforced by the experience.

Platform pricing and consumer foresight: The case of airports

Airports have become platforms that derive revenues from both aeronautical and commercial activities. The demand for these services is characterized by a one-way complementarity in that only air travelers can purchase retail goods at the airport terminals. We analyze a model of optimal airport behavior in which this one-way complementarity is subject to consumer foresight, i.e., consumers may not anticipate in full the ex post retail surplus when purchasing a flight ticket. An airport sets landing fees, and, in addition, also chooses the retail market structure by selecting the number of retail concessions to be awarded. We find that, with perfectly myopic consumers, the airport chooses to attract more passengers via low landing fees, and also sets the minimum possible number of retailers in order to increase the concessions’ revenues, from which it obtains the largest share of profits. However, even a very small amount of anticipation of the consumer surplus from retail activities changes significantly the airport’s choices: the optimal airport policy is dependent on the degree of differentiation in the retail market. When consumers instead have perfect foresight, the airport establishes a very competitive retail market, where consumers enjoy a large surplus. This attracts passengers and it is exploited by the airport by charging higher landing fees, which then constitute the largest share of its profits. Overall, the airport’s profits are maximal when consumers have perfect foresight. Keywords: two-sided markets, platform pricing, one-way demand complementarity, consumer foresight. JEL classification: L1, L2, L93.

Negative feedback regulation of calcineurin-dependent Prz1 transcription factor by the CaMKK-CaMK1 axis in fission yeast

Calcium signals trigger the translocation of the Prz1 transcription factor from the cytoplasm to the nucleus. The process is regulated by the calciumactivated phosphatase calcineurin, which activates Prz1 thereby maintaining active transcription during calcium signalling. When calcium signalling ceases, Prz1 is inactivated by phosphorylation and exported to the cytoplasm. In budding yeast and mammalian cells, different kinases have been reported to counter calcineurin activity and regulate nuclear export. Here, we show that the Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent kinase Cmk1 is first phosphorylated and activated by the newly identified kinase CaMKK2 homologue, Ckk2, in response to Ca2+. Then, active Cmk1 binds, phosphorylates and inactivates Prz1 transcription activity whilst at the same time cmk1 expression is enhanced by Prz1 in response to Ca2+. Furthermore, Cdc25 phosphatase is also phosphorylated by Cmk1, inducing cell cycle arrest in response to an increase in Ca2+. Moreover, cmk1 deletion shows a high tolerance to chronic exposure to Ca2+, due to the lack of cell cycle inhibition and elevated Prz1 activity. This work reveals that Cmk1 kinase activated by the newly identified Ckk2 counteracts calcineurin function by negatively regulating Prz1 activity which in turn is involved in activating cmk1 gene transcription. These results are the first insights into Cmk1 and Ckk2 function in Schizosaccharomyces pombe.