Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Renormalization methods in KAM theory

It is well known that an integrable (in the sense of Arnold-Jost) Hamiltonian system gives rise to quasi-periodic motion with trajectories running on invariant tori. These tori foliate the whole phase space. If we perturb an integrable system, the Kolmogorow-Arnold-Moser (KAM) theorem states that, provided some non-degeneracy condition and that the perturbation is sufficiently small, most of the invariant tori carrying quasi-periodic motion persist, getting only slightly deformed. The measure of the persisting invariant tori is large together with the inverse of the size of the perturbation. In the first part of the thesis we shall use a Renormalization Group (RG) scheme in order to prove the classical KAM result in the case of a non analytic perturbation (the latter will only be assumed to have continuous derivatives up to a sufficiently large order). We shall proceed by solving a sequence of problems in which theperturbations are analytic approximations of the original one. We will finally show that the approximate solutions will converge to a differentiable solution of our original problem. In the second part we will use an RG scheme using continuous scales, so that instead of solving an iterative equation as in the classical RG KAM, we will end up solving a partial differential equation. This will allow us to reduce the complications of treating a sequence of iterative equations to the use of the Banach fixed point theorem in a suitable Banach space.

Boundedness of weakly singular integral operators on domains

The monograph dissertation deals with kernel integral operators and their mapping properties on Euclidean domains. The associated kernels are weakly singular and examples of such are given by Green functions of certain elliptic partial differential equations. It is well known that mapping properties of the corresponding Green operators can be used to deduce a priori estimates for the solutions of these equations. In the dissertation, natural size- and cancellation conditions are quantified for kernels defined in domains. These kernels induce integral operators which are then composed with any partial differential operator of prescribed order, depending on the size of the kernel. The main object of study in this dissertation being the boundedness properties of such compositions, the main result is the characterization of their Lp-boundedness on suitably regular domains. In case the aforementioned kernels are defined in the whole Euclidean space, their partial derivatives of prescribed order turn out to be so called standard kernels that arise in connection with singular integral operators. The Lp-boundedness of singular integrals is characterized by the T1 theorem, which is originally due to David and Journé and was published in 1984 (Ann. of Math. 120). The main result in the dissertation can be interpreted as a T1 theorem for weakly singular integral operators. The dissertation deals also with special convolution type weakly singular integral operators that are defined on Euclidean spaces.

Discovering hidden structures in molecular data using a Bayesian partition model approach

Advancements in the analysis techniques have led to a rapid accumulation of biological data in databases. Such data often are in the form of sequences of observations, examples including DNA sequences and amino acid sequences of proteins. The scale and quality of the data give promises of answering various biologically relevant questions in more detail than what has been possible before. For example, one may wish to identify areas in an amino acid sequence, which are important for the function of the corresponding protein, or investigate how characteristics on the level of DNA sequence affect the adaptation of a bacterial species to its environment. Many of the interesting questions are intimately associated with the understanding of the evolutionary relationships among the items under consideration. The aim of this work is to develop novel statistical models and computational techniques to meet with the challenge of deriving meaning from the increasing amounts of data. Our main concern is on modeling the evolutionary relationships based on the observed molecular data. We operate within a Bayesian statistical framework, which allows a probabilistic quantification of the uncertainties related to a particular solution. As the basis of our modeling approach we utilize a partition model, which is used to describe the structure of data by appropriately dividing the data items into clusters of related items. Generalizations and modifications of the partition model are developed and applied to various problems. Large-scale data sets provide also a computational challenge. The models used to describe the data must be realistic enough to capture the essential features of the current modeling task but, at the same time, simple enough to make it possible to carry out the inference in practice. The partition model fulfills these two requirements. The problem-specific features can be taken into account by modifying the prior probability distributions of the model parameters. The computational efficiency stems from the ability to integrate out the parameters of the partition model analytically, which enables the use of efficient stochastic search algorithms.

Luonnollisten lukujen joukon määriteltävyys funktioalgebroissa

Let X be a topological space and K the real algebra of the reals, the complex numbers, the quaternions, or the octonions. The functions form X to K form an algebra T(X,K) with pointwise addition and multiplication. We study first-order definability of the constant function set N' corresponding to the set of the naturals in certain subalgebras of T(X,K). In the vocabulary the symbols Constant, +, *, 0', and 1' are used, where Constant denotes the predicate defining the constants, and 0' and 1' denote the constant functions with values 0 and 1 respectively. The most important result is the following. Let X be a topological space, K the real algebra of the reals, the compelex numbers, the quaternions, or the octonions, and R a subalgebra of the algebra of all functions from X to K containing all constants. Then N' is definable in , if at least one of the following conditions is true. (1) The algebra R is a subalgebra of the algebra of all continuous functions containing a piecewise open mapping from X to K. (2) The space X is sigma-compact, and R is a subalgebra of the algebra of all continuous functions containing a function whose range contains a nonempty open set of K. (3) The algebra K is the set of reals or the complex numbers, and R contains a piecewise open mapping from X to K and does not contain an everywhere unbounded function. (4) The algebra R contains a piecewise open mapping from X to the set of the reals and function whose range contains a nonempty open subset of K. Furthermore R does not contain an everywhere unbounded function.

Convex-transitive Banach spaces and their hyperplanes

The topic of this dissertation is the geometric and isometric theory of Banach spaces. This work is motivated by the known Banach-Mazur rotation problem, which asks whether each transitive separable Banach space is isometrically a Hilbert space. A Banach space X is said to be transitive if the isometry group of X acts transitively on the unit sphere of X. In fact, some weaker symmetry conditions than transitivity are studied in the dissertation. One such condition is an almost isometric version of transitivity. Another investigated condition is convex-transitivity, which requires that the closed convex hull of the orbit of any point of the unit sphere under the rotation group is the whole unit ball. Following the tradition developed around the rotation problem, some contemporary problems are studied. Namely, we attempt to characterize Hilbert spaces by using convex-transitivity together with the existence of a 1-dimensional bicontractive projection on the space, and some mild geometric assumptions. The convex-transitivity of some vector-valued function spaces is studied as well. The thesis also touches convex-transitivity of Banach lattices and resembling geometric cases.