Improving interMediAte Risk management. MARK study

Background: Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI), measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population. Methods/Design: This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018) from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years) and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years). We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors. Discussion: Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country will have an immediate, clinical and welfare impact and a short term public health effect

A Fair and Secure Cluster Formation Process for Ad Hoc Networks

An efficient approach for organizing large ad hoc networks is to divide the nodesinto multiple clusters and designate, for each cluster, a clusterhead which is responsible forholding intercluster control information. The role of a clusterhead entails rights and duties.On the one hand, it has a dominant position in front of the others because it manages theconnectivity and has access to other node¿s sensitive information. But on the other hand, theclusterhead role also has some associated costs. Hence, in order to prevent malicious nodesfrom taking control of the group in a fraudulent way and avoid selfish attacks from suitablenodes, the clusterhead needs to be elected in a secure way. In this paper we present a novelsolution that guarantees the clusterhead is elected in a cheat-proof manner.

Redes de colaboração científica na área de química no Brasil: um estudo baseado nas coautorias dos artigos da revista Química Nova

In this paper we built three co-authorship networks displaying the acquaintances between countries, universities and authors that have published papers in Quimica Nova from 1995 to 2008. Our research was conducted applying a bibliometric approach to 1782 papers and over 4200 authors. Centrality measures were used and the most significant actors of each network were pointed out. The results using the centrality metrics and the network structures indicated that Quimica Nova resembles a typical scientific community.

Suunnitellun alas- ja ylösajon todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi ydinvoimalaitokselle

Työssä tehtiin ydinvoimalaitoksen suunnitellun alas- ja ylösajon todennäköisyysperus-tainen riskianalyysi. Suunnitellun alasajon analyysi sisälsi Teollisuuden Voima Oyj:n käyttämän vanhan PRA-mallin päivityksen ja laajentamisen. Ylösajon analyysiä varten kehitettiin kokonaan uusi malli. Diplomityöselostuksen alussa on yleinen katsaus luotettavuustekniikan käsitteisiin, pe-rusperiaatteisiin ja työkaluihin. Sitten on esitelty laitostekniikkaa tärkeimpien alas- ja ylösajoihin osallistuvien järjestelmien osalta. Myös normaalit alas- ja ylösajotoimenpi-teet on kuvattu. Yleisen teoriaosuuden jälkeen on keskitytty uusien mallien muodosta-miseen. Työssä käytetyt oletukset ja arviot on esitelty perusteluineen. Uudet tapahtuma- ja vikapuut sekä niiden perusteella lasketut sydänvaurioriskit johtopäätöksineen on käy-ty läpi selostuksen lopussa. Alkutapahtumataajuuksien määrittäminen tehtiin vikapuiden avulla, joissa huomioitiin komponenttivikojen, inhimillisten virheiden ja ulkoisten tekijöiden vaikutus. Aiemmin alkutapahtumat oli määritetty pääasiassa käyttöhistorian perusteella. Uusi määrittelytapa antaa eri vikaantumistapojen välille paremman kuvan niiden keskinäisestä merkitykses-tä sekä paremman päivitettävyyden laitosmuutosten yhteydessä. Mallien avulla voidaan laskea alas- ja ylösajon merkitys kokonaissydänvauriotaajuuteen entistä yksityiskohtaisemmin. Tuloksia voidaan myös hyödyntää laitosten vikatilanteis-sa, kun vertaillaan jatketun käytön ja mahdollisten korjaustöiden vaatiman alas- ja ylösajon riskejä. Uusien mallien antamat tulokset laskivat vain hieman kokonaissydän-vauriotaajuutta, mutta merkittävästi alasajon vaikutusta siihen. Ylösajosta aiheutuva riskinlisä oli noin puolet alasajon riskistä.

Palvelutasopoikkeamariskin kustannusvaikutusten määrittäminen tietoliikennepalveluiden tuotannossa

Tutkimuksen päämääränä oli selvittää laadullisin menetelmin millaisia kustannusvaikutuksia laajavaikutteiset palvelutasopoikkeamat, eli erilaiset viat tai häiriöt tietoliikennepalveluissa aiheuttavat kohdeyrityksen tietoliikennepalveluiden tuotannossa. Tutkimus muistutti lähtökohdiltaan paljolti riskianalyysia, sillä sen tavoitteina oli tunnistaa merkittävimmät palvelutasopoikkeamien aiheuttajat, arvioida palvelutasopoikkeaman kustannusvaikutuksia ja pohtia millaisin toimin ja kustannuksin palvelutasopoikkeamia voitaisiin ehkäistä. Tutkimusongelmaa lähestyttiin jakamalla palvelutasopoikkeaman kustannusvaikutukset viankorjauksesta aiheutuviin välittömiin ja asiakasvaikutusten kautta mahdollisesti syntyviin välillisiin kustannuksiin. Välillisiä kustannuksia aiheuttaviksi ilmiöiksi tunnistettiin palvelukatkon aiheuttama liikennetulomenetys, nykyisten tai potentiaalisten asiakkaiden menettäminen ja nykyisten asiakkaiden alentunut ostohalukkuus. Yhteenvetona tutkimuksessa tehtyihin havaintoihin perustuen välilliset kustannukset eivät osoittautuneet niin merkittäviksi kuin tutkimuksen aloitusvaiheessa oletettiin, mutta lisätutkimus aiheesta voi olla perusteltua.

Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

Computational methods for tactical simulations

Tämä taktiikan tutkimus keskittyy tietokoneavusteisen simuloinnin laskennallisiin menetelmiin, joita voidaan käyttää taktisen tason sotapeleissä. Työn tärkeimmät tuotokset ovat laskennalliset mallit todennäköisyyspohjaisen analyysin mahdollistaviin taktisen tason taistelusimulaattoreihin, joita voidaan käyttää vertailevaan analyysiin joukkue-prikaatitason tarkastelutilanteissa. Laskentamallit keskittyvät vaikuttamiseen. Mallit liittyvät vahingoittavan osuman todennäköisyyteen, jonka perusteella vaikutus joukossa on mallinnettu tilakoneina ja Markovin ketjuina. Edelleen näiden tulokset siirretään tapahtumapuuanalyysiin operaation onnistumisen todennäköisyyden osalta. Pienimmän laskentayksikön mallinnustaso on joukkue- tai ryhmätasolla, jotta laskenta-aika prikaatitason sotapelitarkasteluissa pysyisi riittävän lyhyenä samalla, kun tulokset ovat riittävän tarkkoja suomalaiseen maastoon. Joukkueiden mies- ja asejärjestelmävahvuudet ovat jakaumamuodossa, eivätkä yksittäisiä lukuja. Simuloinnin integroinnissa voidaan käyttää asejärjestelmäkohtaisia predictor corrector –parametreja, mikä mahdollistaa aika-askelta lyhytaikaisempien taistelukentän ilmiöiden mallintamisen. Asemallien pohjana ovat aiemmat tutkimukset ja kenttäkokeet, joista osa kuuluu tähän väitöstutkimukseen. Laskentamallien ohjelmoitavuus ja käytettävyys osana simulointityökalua on osoitettu tekijän johtaman tutkijaryhmän ohjelmoiman ”Sandis”- taistelusimulointiohjelmiston avulla, jota on kehitetty ja käytetty Puolustusvoimien Teknillisessä Tutkimuslaitoksessa. Sandikseen on ohjelmoitu karttakäyttöliittymä ja taistelun kulkua simuloivia laskennallisia malleja. Käyttäjä tai käyttäjäryhmä tekee taktiset päätökset ja syöttää nämä karttakäyttöliittymän avulla simulointiin, jonka tuloksena saadaan kunkin joukkuetason peliyksikön tappioiden jakauma, keskimääräisten tappioiden osalta kunkin asejärjestelmän aiheuttamat tappiot kuhunkin maaliin, ammuskulutus ja radioyhteydet ja niiden tila sekä haavoittuneiden evakuointi-tilanne joukkuetasolta evakuointisairaalaan asti. Tutkimuksen keskeisiä tuloksia (kontribuutio) ovat 1) uusi prikaatitason sotapelitilanteiden laskentamalli, jonka pienin yksikkö on joukkue tai ryhmä; 2) joukon murtumispisteen määritys tappioiden ja haavoittuneiden evakuointiin sitoutuvien taistelijoiden avulla; 3) todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin käyttömahdollisuus vertailevassa tutkimuksessa sekä 4) kokeellisesti testatut tulen vaikutusmallit ja 5) toimivat integrointiratkaisut. Työ rajataan maavoimien taistelun joukkuetason todennäköisyysjakaumat luovaan laskentamalliin, kenttälääkinnän malliin ja epäsuoran tulen malliin integrointimenetelmineen sekä niiden antamien tulosten sovellettavuuteen. Ilmasta ja mereltä maahan -asevaikutusta voidaan tarkastella, mutta ei ilma- ja meritaistelua. Menetelmiä soveltavan Sandis -ohjelmiston malleja, käyttötapaa ja ohjelmistotekniikkaa kehitetään edelleen. Merkittäviä jatkotutkimuskohteita mallinnukseen osalta ovat muun muassa kaupunkitaistelu, vaunujen kaksintaistelu ja maaston vaikutus tykistön tuleen sekä materiaalikulutuksen arviointi.

The Finnish Paper Workers' Union at a crossroads: Labor union representativeness in a changing environment, 1980-2008

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles refer to the changes in the representativeness of the Finnish Paper Workers' Union. Representativeness stands for the entire entity of external, internal, legal and reputational factors that enable the labor union to represent its members and achieve its goals. This concept is based on an extensive reading of quantitative and qualitative industrial relations literature, which includes works based on Marxist labor-capital relations (such as Hyman's industrial relations studies), and more recent union density studies as well as gender- and ethnic diversity-based 'union revitalization' studies. Müller-Jentsch's German studies of industrial relations have been of particular importance as well as Streeck's industrial unionism and technology studies. The concept of representativeness is an attempt to combine the insights of these diverse strands of literature and bring the scientific discussion of labor unions back to the core of a union's function: representing its members. As such, it can be seen as a theoretical innovation. The concept helps to acknowledge both the heterogeneity of the membership and the totality of a labor union organization. The concept of representativeness aims to move beyond notions of 'power'. External representativeness can be expressed through the position of the labor union in the industrial relations system and the economy. Internal representativeness focuses on the aspects of labor unions that relate to the function of the union as an association with members, such as internal democracy. Legal representativeness lies in the formal legal position of the union – its rights and instruments. This includes collective bargaining legislation, co-decision rules and industrial conflict legislation. Reputational representativeness is related to how the union is seen by other actors and the general public, and can be approximated using data on strike activity. All these aspects of representativeness are path-dependent, and show the results of previous struggles over issues. The concept of representativeness goes beyond notions of labor union power and symbolizes an attempt to bring back the focus of industrial relations studies to the union's basic function of representing its members. The first article shows in detail the industrial conflict of the Finnish paper industry in 2005. The intended focus was the issue of gender in the negotiations over a new collective agreement, but the focal point of the industrial conflict was the issue of outsourcing and how this should be organized. Also, the issue of continuous shifts as an issue of working time was very important. The drawn-out conflict can be seen as a struggle over principles, and under pressure the labor union had to concede ground on the aforementioned issues. The article concludes that in this specific conflict, the union represented its' female members to a lesser extent, because the other issues took such priority. Furthermore, because of the substantive concessions. the union lost some of its internal representativeness, and the stubbornness of the union may have even harmed the reputation of the union. This article also includes an early version of the representativeness framework, through which this conflict is analyzed. The second article discusses wage developments, union density and collective bargaining within the context of representativeness. It is shown that the union has been able to secure substantial benefits for its members, regardless of declining employment. Collective agreements have often been based on centralized incomes policies, but the paper sector has not always joined these. Attention is furthermore paid to the changing competition of the General Assembly, with a surprisingly strong position of the Left Alliance still. In an attempt to replicate analysis of union density measures, an analysis of sectoral union density shows that similar factors as in aggregate data influence this measure, though – due to methodological issues – the results may not be robust. On this issue, it can be said that the method of analysis for aggregate union density is not suitable for sectoral union density analysis. The increasingly conflict-ridden industrial relations predicted have not actually materialized. The article concludes by asking whether the aim of ever-increasing wages is a sustainable one in the light of the pressures of globalization, though wage costs are a relatively small part of total costs. The third article discusses the history and use of outsourcing in the Finnish paper industry. It is shown using Hyman's framework of constituencies that over time, the perspective of the union changed from 'members of the Paper Workers' Union' to a more specific view of who is a core member of the union. Within the context of the industrial unionism that the union claims to practice, this is an important change. The article shows that the union more and more caters for a core group, while auxiliary personnel is less important to the union's identity and constituencies, which means that the union's internal representativeness has decreased. Maintenance workers are an exception; the union and employers have developed a rotating system that increases the efficient allocation of these employees. The core reason of the exceptional status of maintenance personnel is their high level of non-transferable skills. In the end it is debatable whether the compromise on outsourcing solves the challenges facing the industry. The fourth article shows diverging discourses within the union with regard to union-employer partnership for competitiveness improvements and instruments of local union representatives. In the collective agreement of 2008, the provision regulating wage effects of significant changes in the organization or content of work was thoroughly changed, though this mainly reflected decisions by the Labor Court on the pre-2008 version of the provision. This change laid bare the deep rift between the Social Democratic and Left Alliance (ex-Communist) factions of the union. The article argues that through the changed legal meaning of the provision, the union was able to transform concession bargaining into a basis for partnership. The internal discontent about this issue is nonetheless substantial and a threat to the unity of the union, both locally and at the union level. On the basis of the results of the articles, other factors influencing representativeness, such as technology and EU law and an overview of the main changes in the Finnish paper industry, it is concluded that, especially in recent years, the Finnish Paper Workers' Union has lost some of its representativeness. In particular, the loss of the efficiency of strikes is noted, the compromise on outsourcing which may have alienated a substantial part of the union's membership, and the change in the collective agreement of 2008 have caused this decline. In the latter case, the internal disunion on that issue shows the constraints of the union's internal democracy. Furthermore, the failure of the union to join the TEAM industrial union (by democratic means), the internal conflicts and a narrow focus on its own sector may also hurt the union in the future, as the paper industry in Finland is going through a structural change. None of these changes in representativeness would have been so drastic without the considerable pressure of globalization - in particular changing markets, changing technology and a loss of domestic investments to foreign investments, which in the end have benefited the corporations more than the Finnish employees of these corporations. Taken together, the union risks becoming socially irrelevant in time, though it will remain formally very strong on the basis of its institutional setting and financial situation.

Satamatoimijoiden riskienhallinta alusrajapinnassa, case HaminaKotkan kaasu- ja nestesatama

This study examined the risk management of port operators in the surface of vessel and terminal. This study was specially focused on the safety aspects as well as operational risks in surface of port of HaminaKotka liquid bulk terminal. Operational risks are examined during loading and unloading only. The theory of this study is based on strategy and competence of organizations and introducing different kind of methods of risk analysis. In addition, safety and directives of liquid bulk terminal is examined. Process scenario is represented concerning risks and risk management occurring in the surface of vessel and terminal. Finally the affect of human errors for the occurred accidents are examined. The method of explore was survey method. Survey was implemented via e-mail and enquiry was formatted as multiple choice enquiries. The main outcome of this study was that security level among enterprises operating in the liquid bulk terminal is high. Each enterprise has chosen the best risk analysis methods, which are suitable for their purposes. There is not one risk analysis available only used by every enterprise in the liquid bulk terminal. Using coherent risk analysis would clear out the everyday activities on that area. Greater presence of port master would also be desirable during every day activities in liquid bulk terminal.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with infection by Neospora caninum of dairy cattle in the state of Alagoas, Brazil

The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of anti-Neospora caninum antibodies in cattle from milk producing farms of the microregion of Batalha, state of Alagoas, Brazil, as well as to identify the risk factors associated with the infection. Blood samples were collected from 1,004 cattle of 17 farms for the serological investigation regarding the presence of anti-N. caninum antibodies by the Indirect Immunofluorescence Reaction Technique (IMRT). From the total amount of samples analyzed, 77/1,004 (7.67%) were positive and 927/1,004 (92.33%) were negative. The logistical regression identified that cattle from farms without consortium breeding have an infection risk 6.33 (p<0.001; C.I. 2.89-13.10) times higher than cattle from farms with that type of breeding. Cattle from farms where the aborted fetuses are not adequately buried have an infection risk 3.04 (p<0.001; C.I. 1.64-5.63) times higher than cattle from farms with adequate destination of these fetuses. Infection by N. caninum occurs in cattle of the investigated region. The factors identified in our study can be used as risk indicators, so that control measures could be implemented to avoid infection by N. caninum in the herds of this region.

Overview on the Cost-effectiveness of Maritime Safety Policy Instruments

Maritime safety is an issue that has gained a lot of attention in the Baltic Sea area due to the dense maritime traffic and transportation of oil in the area. Lots of effort has been paid to enhance maritime safety in the area. The risk exists that excessive legislation and other requirements mean more costs for limited benefit. In order to utilize both public and private resources efficiently, awareness is required of what kind of costs maritime safety policy instruments cause and whether the costs are in relation to benefits. The aim of this report is to present an overview of the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy instruments focusing on the cost aspect: what kind of costs maritime safety policy causes, to whom, what affects the cost-effectiveness and how cost-effectiveness is studied. The study is based on a literature review and on the interviews of Finnish maritime experts. The results of this study imply that cost-effectiveness is a complicated issue to evaluate. There are no uniform practices for which costs and benefits should be included in the evaluation and how they should be valued. One of the challenges is how to measure costs and benefits during the course of a longer time period. Often a lack of data erodes the reliability of evaluation. In the prevention of maritime accidents, costs typically include investments in ship structures or equipment, as well as maintenance and labor costs. Also large investments may be justifiable if they respectively provide significant improvements to maritime safety. Measures are cost-effective only if they are implemented properly. Costeffectiveness is decreased if a measure causes overlapping or repetitious work. Costeffectiveness is also decreased if the technology isn’t user-friendly or if it is soon replaced with a new technology or another new appliance. In future studies on the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy, it is important to acknowledge the dependency between different policy instruments and the uncertainty of the factors affecting cost-effectiveness. The costs of a single measure are rarely relatively significant and the effect of each measure on safety tends to be positive. The challenge is to rank the measures and to find the most effective combination of different policy instruments. The greatest potential offered for the analysis of cost-effectiveness of individual measures is their implementation in clearly defined risk situations, in which different measures are truly alternative to each other. Overall, maritime safety measures do not seem to be considered burdening for the shipping industry in Finland at the moment. Generally actors in the Finnish shipping industry seem to find maintaining a high safety level important and act accordingly.

The Pay-Off Method as a Tool for Evaluating the Risk and Profitability of Public Real Estate Investments

Real option valuation, in particular the fuzzy pay-off method, has proven to be useful in defining risk and visualizing imprecision of investments in various industry applications. This study examines whether the evaluation of risk and profitability for public real estate investments can be improved by using real option methodology. Firstly, the context of real option valuation in the real estate industry is examined. Further, an empirical case study is performed on 30 real estate investments of a Finnish government enterprise in order to determine whether the presently used investment analysis system can be complemented by the pay-off method. Despite challenges in the application of the pay-off method to the case company’s large investment base, real option valuation is found to create additional value and facilitate more robust risk analysis in public real estate applications.

Käyttövarmuusanalyysin tuottama tärkeysjärjestys elintarviketeollisuuden prosessilaitteille – Suuntaviivat kustannustietoisen kunnossapitostrategian luomiselle

Hallitsematon ja reaktiivinen kunnossapito on eräs tuotannon suurimpia kustannustekijöistä. Suunnitelmallisesti ja systemaattisesti johdettuna kunnossapito on tuotantotehokkuuden suurin vaikuttaja. Merkittävä osa tuotannon tehokkuuden ylläpidosta saavutetaan laitteiden käyttövarmuudella. Käyttövarmuuden saaminen hallintaan perustuu ennakoivan kunnossapidon määrän kasvattamiseen. Samalla korjaavan kunnossapidon kustannusriski laskee ja siihen käytetty panos vähenee. Huonolla kunnossapidon suunnitelmallisuudella on päinvastaiset vaikutukset. Tavoitteena on määritellä prosessilaitteiden käyttövarmuuksiin perustuva laitekriittisyys. Tutkimuksessa yhdistetään riskien arviointimenetelmiä, joilla keskimääräiset vikavälit ja seuraukset valmistukseen mallinnetaan. Kriittisyystekijöitä ovat käytettävyys, luotettavuus, kustannustekijät, turvallisuus ja ympäristövaikutukset. Tekijöiden arvottamiseen kehitettiin riksianalyysitaulukko. Kriittisyysluokat jaettiin kolmeen kategoriaan, joista A on kriittisin, B keskinkertainen ja C on matalin luokka. Lähtötietojen keräys toteutettiin triangulaatiomenetelmää soveltaen. Empiirisessä osassa HKScan Oy:n lihanjalostustehtaan jauheliha- ja kestomakkaraosastojen laitteet jaettiin A-, B- ja C-luokkiin. Kriittisimpiä laitteita oli 20 prosenttia analysoidusta laitemäärästä. Nämä A-luokkaan sijoitetut laitteet aiheuttavat 80 prosenttia kustannusriskeistä. B-luokkaan kuuluu 50 prosenttia ja C-luokkaan 30 prosenttia laitteista. Luokittelusta erotettiin havaitut turvallisuusriskit riskienhallinnan toimenpiteitä varten. Kustannustietoinen kriittisyysluokittelu on pohja kunnossapitostrategian rakentamiselle. Tämän avuksi esitettiin taulukot huolto-ohjelman luomiseen ja luokituksien hyödyntämiseen päivittäisessä toiminnassa.

Factors Affecting Consumer Investment Intentions. Empirical Evidence from Finland

The thesis aims to build a theoretical model to explain consumer investment intentions in stocks and investment funds. The model examines the relationships between subjective investment knowledge, expected sacrifice, expected investment value, compatibility, perceived behavioral control and investment intentions. The data was collected via web-based survey and consisted of 45- to 65-year-old Finnish consumers (n=154). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modeling (SEM) and t-tests were applied in analyzing the data. The results suggest that among average household consumers expected investment value consists of three dimensions, namely, economic, functional, and emotional, whereas expected sacrifice consists of effort, financial risk, source risk, and psychological risk. Two structural models were assessed, one for stock investments and one for investment funds. Whereas the models presented somewhat different outcomes, in both models compatibility had an essential role in explaining consumer investment intentions. Compatibility was affected by expected investment value and expected sacrifice. Subjective investment knowledge impacted consumers’ evaluations of the value and sacrifices. The effect of perceived behavioral control on investment intentions was rather small, however significant. Moreover, the results suggest that there are significant differences between consumers with no investment experience and consumers with investment experience in subjective investment knowledge, the dimensions of expected sacrifices and expected investment value, perceived behavioral control, compatibility and investment intentions.

Context-specific independence in graphical models

The theme of this thesis is context-speci c independence in graphical models. Considering a system of stochastic variables it is often the case that the variables are dependent of each other. This can, for instance, be seen by measuring the covariance between a pair of variables. Using graphical models, it is possible to visualize the dependence structure found in a set of stochastic variables. Using ordinary graphical models, such as Markov networks, Bayesian networks, and Gaussian graphical models, the type of dependencies that can be modeled is limited to marginal and conditional (in)dependencies. The models introduced in this thesis enable the graphical representation of context-speci c independencies, i.e. conditional independencies that hold only in a subset of the outcome space of the conditioning variables. In the articles included in this thesis, we introduce several types of graphical models that can represent context-speci c independencies. Models for both discrete variables and continuous variables are considered. A wide range of properties are examined for the introduced models, including identi ability, robustness, scoring, and optimization. In one article, a predictive classi er which utilizes context-speci c independence models is introduced. This classi er clearly demonstrates the potential bene ts of the introduced models. The purpose of the material included in the thesis prior to the articles is to provide the basic theory needed to understand the articles.