Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

E-business solutions as a part of a customer service portfolio

Tässä työssä tutkittiin sähköisen liiketoiminnan palveluiden tarvetta kartonkiteollisuudessa. Palveluiden tarvetta ja sisältöä tutkittiin suomalaisessa metsäteollisuusyrityksessä. Tutkimus suoritettiin teemahaastatteluin ja sitä täydennettiin tekemällä yritys case. Tutkimuksen pohjana toimi esiselvitys, jossa muutamia sähköisen liiketoiminnan palveluita oli tunnistettu. Sähköisen liiketoiminnan palveluiden on havaittu lisääntyneen merkittävästi yritystenvälisessä liiketoiminnassa. Kuluttajakaupassa sähköisen liiketoiminnan palvelut ovat olleet jo pitkään käytössä. Sähköisen kaupankäynnin lisääntyminen on ajanut yrityksiä perustamaan sähköisiä kauppapaikkoja, modernisoimaan toimitusmallejaan tai palvelukonseptejaan sekä huomioimaan sähköisen tiedonvaihdon vaikutuksia liiketoimissaan. Tutkimuksen tulokset johtivat kolmeen johtopäätökseen. Tutkimus osoitti, että sähköisen liiketoiminnan palvelut ovat osa nykyaikaista yritystenvälistä liiketoimintaa. Palveluita on olemassa ja niitä on tarjolla yrityksen kilpailijoiden toimesta maailmanlaajuisesti. Toiseksi tutkimus osoitti, että toimitusketjun tulevaisuus on palveluiden kehittämisessä ja niiden rakentamisessa. Kartonkituotteet lähenevät toisiaan laadullisesti kokoajan, sähköiset palvelut voivat tuoda kilpailuetua ja niiden avulla voidaan erottua markkinoilla. Kolmanneksi, sähköiseen liiketoimintaan on panostettava ja palveluita on rakennettava toimitusmalleja tukevaksi. Palveluiden sisällön on huomioitava asiakastarpeet.

Purchasing portfolio analysis and supplier classification

The purpose of the thesis is to classify suppliers and to enhance strategic purchasing in the case company. Supplier classification is conducted to fulfill the requirements of the company quality manual and international quality standards. To gain more benefit, a strategic purchasing tool, Kraljic’s purchasing portfolio and analytical hierarchy process are utilized for the base of supplier classification. Purchasing portfolio is used to give quick and easy visual insight on product group management form the viewpoint of purchasing. From the base on purchasing portfolio alternative purchasing and supplier strategies can be formed that enhance the strategic orientation of purchasing. Thus purchasing portfolio forces the company to orient on proactive and strategic purchasing. As a result a survey method for implementing purchasing portfolio in the company is developed that exploits analytical hierarchy process. Experts from the company appoint the categorization criteria and in addition, participate in the survey to categorize product groups on the portfolio. Alternative purchasing strategies are formed. Suppliers are classified depending on the importance and characteristics of the product groups supplied.

The key practices of customer portfolio management (CPM) process in the medical and healthcare B2B industry

The goal of this study is to deepen the understanding of the customer portfolio management process. There are many models for the process, and they are not necessarily exclusive of each other. Consequently, the inclusion of many models might even prove out to be beneficial. Other theoretical framework include the current economical situation and its propose on customer portfolio management. With an understanding of the theoretical models as a background, the empirical part of this study compares Finnish multinational medical and healthcare technology companies’ customer portfolio management practices. The empirical research was carried out with theme interviews held with 11 sales and marketing managers or directors from four different companies. The goal was to discover the most essential practices of the process steps in the companies. The result of this study is that there is a lack of systematic customer portfolio management, but most companies are aiming to improve this in the near future. The most essential practices are analysis of sales, communication level, learning, and commitment to strategy of the focal company. Special characteristics of this industry include large business networks that include customers, professional end-users, institutions, universities, researchers, and key opinion leaders. The management and analysis of this comprehensive network has been seen to be extremely important for this industry.

Integration of learning supportive applications into the development of the e-portfolio construction process

The portfolio as a means of demonstrating personal skills has lately been gaining prominence among technology students. This is partially due to the introduction of electronic portfolios, or e-portfolios. As platforms for e-portfolio management with different approaches have been introduced, the learning cycle, traditional portfolio pedagogy, and learner centricity have sometimes been forgotten, and as a result, the tools have been used for the most part as data depositories. The purpose of this thesis is to show how the construction of e-portfolios of IT students can be supported by institutions through the usage of different tools that relate to study advising, teaching, and learning. The construction process is presented as a cycle based on learning theories. Actions related to the various phases of the e-portfolio construction process are supported by the implementation of software applications. To maximize learner-centricity and minimize the intervention of the institution, the evaluated and controlled actions for these practices can be separated from the e-portfolios, leaving the construction of the e-portfolio to students. The main contributions of this thesis are the implemented applications, which can be considered to support the e-portfolio construction by assisting in planning, organizing, and reflecting activities. Eventually, this supports the students in their construction of better and more extensive e-portfolios. The implemented tools include 1) JobSkillSearcher to help students’ recognition of the demands of the ICT industry regarding skills, 2) WebTUTOR to support students’ personal study planning, 3) Learning Styles to determine students' learning styles, and 4) MyPeerReview to provide a platform on which to carry out anonymous peer review processes in courses. The most visible outcome concerning the e-portfolio is its representation, meaning that one can use it to demonstrate personal achievements at the time of seeking a job and gaining employment. Testing the tools and the selected open-source e-portfolio application indicates that the degree of richness of e-portfolio content can be increased by using the implemented applications.

The Use of Data Envelopment Analysis as Equity Portfolio Selection Criterion in the Finnish Stock Market

This thesis examines the application of data envelopment analysis as an equity portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market during period 2001-2011. A sample of publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange is examined in this thesis. The sample covers the majority of the publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Data envelopment analysis is used to determine the efficiency of firms using a set of input and output financial parameters. The set of financial parameters consist of asset utilization, liquidity, capital structure, growth, valuation and profitability measures. The firms are divided into artificial industry categories, because of the industry-specific nature of the input and output parameters. Comparable portfolios are formed inside the industry category according to the efficiency scores given by the DEA and the performance of the portfolios is evaluated with several measures. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that with certain limitations, data envelopment analysis can successfully be used as portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market when the portfolios are rebalanced at annual frequency according to the efficiency scores given by the data envelopment analysis. However, when the portfolios were rebalanced every two or three years, the results are mixed and inconclusive.

Creating risk measurement model to project portfolio management in construction company

This thesis was carried out as a case study of a company YIT in order to clarify the sev-erest risks for the company and to build a method for project portfolio evaluation. The target organization creates new living environment by constructing residential buildings, business premises, infrastructure and entire areas worth for EUR 1.9 billion in the year 2013. Company has noted project portfolio management needs more information about the structure of project portfolio and possible influences of market shock situation. With interviews have been evaluated risks with biggest influence and most appropriate metrics to examine. The major risks for the company were evaluated by interviewing the executive staff. At the same time, the most appropriate risk metrics were considered. At the moment sales risk was estimated to have biggest impact on company‟s business. Therefore project port-folio evaluation model was created and three different scenarios for company‟s future were created in order to identify the scale of possible market shock situation. The created model is tested with public and descriptive figures of YIT in a one-year-long market shock and the impact on different metrics was evaluated. Study was conducted using con-structive research methodology. Results indicate that company has notable sales risk in certain sections of business portfolio.

Portfolio Selection via Composite Measure Analysis: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market

The aim of this research is to examine the pricing anomalies existing in the U.S. market during 1986 to 2011. The sample of stocks is divided into decile portfolios based on seven individual valuation ratios (E/P, B/P, S/P, EBIT/EV, EVITDA/EV, D/P, and CE/P) and price momentum to investigate the efficiency of individual valuation ratio and their combinations as portfolio formation criteria. This is the first time in financial literature when CE/P is employed as a constituent of composite value measure. The combinations are based on median scaled composite value measures and TOPSIS method. During the sample period value portfolios significantly outperform both the market portfolio and comparable glamour portfolios. The results show the highest return for the value portfolio that was based on the combination of S/P & CE/P ratios. The outcome of this research will increase the understanding on the suitability of different methodologies for portfolio selection. It will help managers to take advantage of the results of different methodologies in order to gain returns above the market.

Stability Analysis in Multicriteria Discrete Portfolio Optimization.

Almost every problem of design, planning and management in the technical and organizational systems has several conflicting goals or interests. Nowadays, multicriteria decision models represent a rapidly developing area of operation research. While solving practical optimization problems, it is necessary to take into account various kinds of uncertainty due to lack of data, inadequacy of mathematical models to real-time processes, calculation errors, etc. In practice, this uncertainty usually leads to undesirable outcomes where the solutions are very sensitive to any changes in the input parameters. An example is the investment managing. Stability analysis of multicriteria discrete optimization problems investigates how the found solutions behave in response to changes in the initial data (input parameters). This thesis is devoted to the stability analysis in the problem of selecting investment project portfolios, which are optimized by considering different types of risk and efficiency of the investment projects. The stability analysis is carried out in two approaches: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative approach describes the behavior of solutions in conditions with small perturbations in the initial data. The stability of solutions is defined in terms of existence a neighborhood in the initial data space. Any perturbed problem from this neighborhood has stability with respect to the set of efficient solutions of the initial problem. The other approach in the stability analysis studies quantitative measures such as stability radius. This approach gives information about the limits of perturbations in the input parameters, which do not lead to changes in the set of efficient solutions. In present thesis several results were obtained including attainable bounds for the stability radii of Pareto optimal and lexicographically optimal portfolios of the investment problem with Savage's, Wald's criteria and criteria of extreme optimism. In addition, special classes of the problem when the stability radii are expressed by the formulae were indicated. Investigations were completed using different combinations of Chebyshev's, Manhattan and Hölder's metrics, which allowed monitoring input parameters perturbations differently.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Portfolio as an Indicator of Young Learners’ English Proficiency in Mainstream Language Instruction (EFL) and Bilingual Content Instruction (CLIL)

Tämä soveltavan kielitieteen ja kielitaidon arvioinnin toimintatutkimus tarkasteli kieliportfolion ominaisuuksia ja mahdollisuuksia nuorten oppijoiden englannin kielen arvioinnissa kahdessa eri oppimiskontekstissa: englanti oppiaineena (EFL) ja kaksikielinen sisällönopetus (CLIL). Tutkielman itsenäiset, kahteen eri englannin kielen rekisteriin (arkikieli ja akateeminen kieli) kohdistuneet portfoliokokeilut olivat erillisiä tapaustutkimuksia. Molemmat portfoliot perustuivat väljästi Eurooppalaiseen kielisalkkumalliin, ja ne olivat osa tutkielmantekijän luokkaopetusta ja -toimintaa. EFL -portfoliokokeilu 9-10-vuotiaille kolmasluokkalaisille toteutettiin marraskuun 2011 ja toukokuun 2012 välisenä aikana, kun CLIL -portfoliokokeilu n. 7-9-vuotiallle ensimmäisen ja toisen luokan oppilaille kesti kaksi lukuvuotta 2012–2014. Molemmissa kokeiluissa myös oppilaiden vanhemmat kuuluivat tutkimusjoukkoon, samoin CLIL -portfolion toteutuksessa avustaneet ja opettajanäkökulmaa edustaneet opettajaopiskelijat. Portfoliokokeilun aloitti myös kaksi muuta CLIL -opettajaa, mutta kumpikin kokeilu päättyi alkuvaiheeseensa. Tarkemman tarkastelun kohteina olivat tutkimuksen osallistujien kokemukset ja mielipiteet portfoliokokeiluista. Erityisesti tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten informatiivisena englannin kielitaidon indikaattorina kieliportfoliota pidettiin. Myös kehitysehdotuksia kerättiin. Trianguloitu aineisto koottiin sekä puolistrukturoiduin kyselyin että vapaaehtoisin teemahaastatteluin, jotka äänitettiin. EFL -aineisto koostui 18 oppilaskyselystä, 17 huoltajakyselystä ja 7 oppilashaastattelusta. CLIL -aineistoon sisältyi 19 oppilaskyselyä, 18 huoltajakyselyä, 7 oppilashaastattelua ja yksi opettajaopiskelijoiden (N=3) ryhmähaastattelu. Aineisto analysoitiin pääosin kvalitatiivisin menetelmin temaattisen sisältöanalyysin keinoin, mutta myös laskien frekvenssejä ja prosenttisosuuksia. Osallistujien mielipiteet ja kokemukset olivat hyvin samankaltaiset ja positiiviset kummassakin portfoliokokeilussa. Merkittävä enemmistö sekä oppilaista että huoltajista koki, että portfolion avulla on mahdollista osoittaa englannin kielitaitoa ja sen kehittymistä. Oppilaat kuvailivat portfoliotyötä hauskaksi ja kivaksi, ja heidän mielestään portfoliotehtävien pitäisi olla tarpeeksi haastavia, sisältää taiteellisia ja luovia elementtejä sekä kohdistua tuttuihin, mielenkiintoisiin aiheisiin. He totesivat, että portfolion avulla voi oppia lisää kieltä. Vanhempien mielestä portfolio kertoo koulun vieraiksi jääneistä oppisisällöistä, auttaa ymmärtämään lapsen ajatusmaailmaa ja motivaatiotasoa sekä paljastaa heidän kielitaidostaan uusia ulottuvuuksia. Opettajaopiskelijat havaitsivat, että portfolion avulla voi tutustua oppilaiden kieli- ja kulttuuritaustoihin sekä kartoittaa heidän kielellisiä tarpeitaan. Tämän tutkielman teoreettisen tarkastelun ja tulosten mukaan kieliportfolio tukee erinomaisesti uuden Perusopetuksen Opetussuunnitelman (NCC 2014) tavoitteita ja arvioinnin uudistuspyrkimyksiä sekä lainsäädännön arvioinnille asettamia edellytyksiä. Portfolio on erittäin suositeltava nuorten oppijoiden kielitaidon arviointimenetelmä perinteisten rinnalle.