Mapping financial stability

The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.

The Cycle Times of Working Capital: Financial Value Chain Analysis Method

Interest towards working capital management increased among practitioners and researchers because the financial crisis of 2008 caused the deterioration of the general financial situation. The importance of managing working capital effectively increased dramatically during the financial crisis. On one hand, companies highlighted the importance of working capital management as part of short-term financial management to overcome funding difficulties. On the other hand, in academia, it has been highlighted the need to analyze working capital management from a wider perspective namely from the value chain perspective. Previously, academic articles mostly discussed working capital management from a company-centered perspective. The objective of this thesis was to put working capital management in a wider and more academic perspective and present case studies of the value chains of industries as instrumental in theoretical contributions and practical contributions as complementary to theoretical contributions and conclusions. The principal assumption of this thesis is that selffinancing of value chains can be established through effective working capital management. Thus, the thesis introduces the financial value chain analysis method which is employed in the empirical studies. The effectiveness of working capital management of the value chains is studied through the cycle time of working capital. The financial value chain analysis method employed in this study is designed for considering value chain level phenomena. This method provides a holistic picture of the value chain through financial figures. It extends the value chain analysis to the industry level. Working capital management is studied by the cash conversion cycle that measures the length (days) of time a company has funds tied up in working capital, starting from the payment of purchases to the supplier and ending when remittance of sales is received from the customers. The working capital management practices employed in the automotive, pulp and paper and information and communication technology industries have been studied in this research project. Additionally, the Finnish pharmaceutical industry is studied to obtain a deeper understanding of the working capital management of the value chain. The results indicate that the cycle time of working capital is constant in the value chain context over time. The cash conversion cycle of automotive, pulp and paper, and ICT industries are on average 70, 60 and 40 days, respectively. The difference is mainly a consequence of the different cycle time of inventories. The financial crisis of 2008 affected the working capital management of the industries similarly. Both the cycle time of accounts receivable and accounts payable increased between 2008 and 2009. The results suggest that the companies of the automotive, pulp and paper and ICT value chains were not able to self-finance. Results do not indicate the improvement of value chains position in regard to working capital management either. The findings suggest that companies operating in the Finnish pharmaceutical industry are interested in developing their own working capital management, but collaboration with the value chain partners is not considered interesting. Competition no longer occurs between individual companies, but between value chains. Therefore the financial value chain analysis method introduced in this thesis has the potential to support value chains in improving their competitiveness.

Trust Embedded Open Innovation: Human-Centricity in the Financial

Globalization and interconnectedness in the worldwide sphere have changed the existing and prevailing modus operandi of organizations around the globe and have challenged existing practices along with the business as usual mindset. There are no rules in terms of creating a competitive advantage and positioning within an unstable, constantly changing and volatile globalized business environment. The financial industry, the locomotive or the flagship industry of global economy, especially, within the aftermath of the financial crisis, has reached a certain point trying to recover and redefine its strategic orientation and positioning within the global business arena. Innovation has always been a trend and a buzzword and by many has been considered as the ultimate answer to any kind of problem. The mantra Innovate or Die has been prevailing in any organizational entity in a, sometimes, ruthless endeavour to develop cutting-edge products and services and capture a landmark position in the market. The emerging shift from a closed to an open innovation paradigm has been considered as new operational mechanism within the management and leadership of the company of the future. To that respect, open innovation has been experiencing a tremendous growth research trajectory by putting forward a new way of exchanging and using surplus knowledge in order to sustain innovation within organizations and in the level of industry. In the abovementioned reality, there seems to be something missing: the human element. This research, by going beyond the traditional narratives for open innovation, aims at making an innovative theoretical and managerial contribution developed and grounded on the on-going discussion regarding the individual and organizational barriers to open innovation within the financial industry. By functioning across disciplines and researching out to primary data, it debunks the myth that open innovation is solely a knowledge inflow and outflow mechanism and sheds light to the understanding on the why and the how organizational open innovation works by enlightening the broader dynamics and underlying principles of this fascinating paradigm. Little attention has been given to the role of the human element, the foundational pre-requisite of trust encapsulated within the precise and fundamental nature of organizing for open innovation, the organizational capabilities, the individual profiles of open innovation leaders, the definition of open innovation in the realms of the financial industry, the strategic intent of the financial industry and the need for nurturing a societal impact for human development. To that respect, this research introduces the trust-embedded approach to open innovation as a new insightful way of organizing for open innovation. It unveils the peculiarities of the corporate and individual spheres that act as a catalyst towards the creation of productive open innovation activities. The incentive of this research captures the fundamental question revolving around the need for financial institutions to recognise the importance for organizing for open innovation. The overarching question is why and how to create a corporate culture of openness in the financial industry, an organizational environment that can help open innovation excel. This research shares novel and cutting edge outcomes and propositions both under the prism of theory and practice. The trust-embedded open innovation paradigm captures the norms and narratives around the way of leading open innovation within the 21st century by cultivating a human-centricity mindset that leads to the creation of human organizations, leaving behind the dehumanization mindset currently prevailing within the financial industry.

Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust

Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the "state of confidence" and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.

Financial working capital - management and measurement

Unexpected changes in cash flow have started to occur more frequently after the financial crisis. The capital structures of companies have also changed, and financial flexibility as well as flexible asset management have therefore become more important. This thesis aims at presenting financial working capital management, a part of flexible asset management, as a possibility to gain financial flexibility and survive the changes. This thesis operates in the interface of corporate finance, strategic management and management accounting, and it has two main objectives: to examine financial working capital management and to develop measures of financial working capital. The research in this thesis has been conducted using archival research and design science. Qualitative comparative analysis and model building are used to formulate tools and strategies for financial working capital management. The tools are tested with simulations, case studies and statistical analysis. The empirical data is collected from companies listed in the Helsinki Stock Exchange. The results of this thesis indicate that there are several possible financial working capital management strategies. FOCAL matrix is created in the thesis to assist in the selection of a strategy. The results also imply that profitability can be improved by reducing financial working capital, which creates a need to change the financial working capital management strategy. Financial flow cycle, and its modification, is developed in this thesis to measure financial working capital. Financial working capital as a concept is presented in this thesis with an orientation towards the management view. New dimensions have also been produced to financial management and working capital management, while providing a holistic approach to financial flexibility. Financial working capital management strategies are presented to managers and practical tools are provided for decision-making.

Liderazgo y resiliencia organizacional en la crisis financiera global del 2008–2009

Durante la crisis financiera global de 2008 muchas organizaciones y mercados financieros tuvieron que terminar sus operaciones o replantearlas debido a los choques que golpearon el bienestar de sus empresas. A pesar de esta grave situación, en la actualidad se pueden encontrar empresas que se recuperaron y salieron del terrible panorama que les presentó la crisis, incluso encontrando nuevas oportunidades de negocio y fortaleciendo su futuro. Esta capacidad que algunas organizaciones tuvieron y que permitió su salida victoriosa de la crisis se denomina resiliencia, la cual es la capacidad de sobreponerse a los efectos negativos de choques internos o externos (Briguglio, Cordina, Farrugia & Vella 2009). Por tanto en el presente trabajo se estudiará esta capacidad tanto en la organización como en los líderes para hallar factores que mejoren el desempeño de las empresas en crisis como la que ocurrió en el 2008 – 2009. Primero se realizará un estudio sobre los sucesos y el desarrollo de la crisis subprime del año 2008 para tener un entendimiento claro de sus antecedentes, desarrollo, magnitud y consecuencias. Posteriormente se realizará un estudio profundo sobre la teoría de la resiliencia organizacional y la resiliencia en el líder como individuo y los estilos de liderazgo. Finalmente teniendo un sustento teórico tanto de la crisis como del concepto de resiliencia se tomarán casos de estudio de empresas que lograron perdurar en la crisis financiera del 2008 y empresas que no lograron sobrevivir para posteriormente hallar características del líder y del liderazgo que puedan aumentar o afectar la capacidad de resiliencia de las organizaciones con el objetivo de brindar herramientas a los líderes actuales para que manejen de forma eficiente y eficaz las empresas en un mundo complejo y variable como el actual.

Análisis de la influencia del Modelo Socioeconómico Chaebol en la crisis financiera del sudeste asiático de 1997: Tailandia

A partir del fin de la Guerra de Corea los diferentes gobiernos que tomaron el poder permitieron la consolidación de las grandes empresas Chaebol. El análisis social se basa en rescatar principios del confucianismo que pueden verse representados en el sistema corporativo estudiado, entre ellos la piedad filial, la honestidad, la educación. Al analizar los factores confucianos se logra determinar ciertas dinámicas presentes en las empresas Chaebol que muestran similitud con las causas de la Crisis Financiera del Sudeste asiático en 1997 lo que permite crear una relación entre el modelo y la crisis. La sobreinversión, el sobreendeudamiento, la relación entre el gobierno y los Chaebol son un ejemplo de dinámicas resultantes. Al tener a Tailandia como segundo país de referencia fue necesario buscar la existencia de relaciones entre el sistema económico y social tailandés, además de encontrar dinámicas resultantes del modelo corporativo de Tailandia similares a las coreanas para finalizar relacionándolas con la crisis financiera.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) y Collateral Debt Obligation (CDO) derivados financieros responsables de la crisis sub-prime de 2008 en Estados Unidos y una guía para el desarrollo del mercado de derivados exóticos en Colombia

La crisis financiera hipotecaria de 2008 en la que se declaró en quiebra el banco de inversión Lehman Brothers, se desarrolló en un ambiente que contemplaba apalancamientos financieros excesivos y el uso de derivados financieros de crédito innovadores. Razón por la cual, a partir del estudio de caso de quiebra de este banco de inversión y el análisis de las causas y consecuencias del ambiente desregulatorio que surgió en Estados Unidos desde la década de los 30 hasta el 2000, se orienta la investigación a indagar sobre lo que sucede en términos regulatorios y empresariales en el mercado de valores colombiano y así lograr definir objetivos que permitan el crecimiento del mercado de derivados exóticos en Colombia bajo un marco de responsabilidad financiera y ética empresarial.

El papel de las organizaciones Internacionales en la imagen de los Estados en el escenario internacional: La crisis Financiera de Argentina y la actuación del Fondo Monetario Internacional 2000- 2010

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo identificar el papel que tuvo el Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI] en el cambio de la imagen del Estado argentino después de la crisis financiera que estalló en el 2001. Como consecuencia de la declaración de default por parte del gobierno argentino se da un cambio en la imagen financiera del país, influenciada por el FMI, que convierte a Argentina en un paria internacional en temas financieros y comerciales alejándolo de los mercados internacionales. Este estudio de caso tendrá un acercamiento cualitativo dado que se analizarán las características, actuaciones y las bases crean el lazo entre las variables de la crisis financiera y el rol del FMI en Argentina y así poder entender su relación.

Harinera Pardo S.A.: experiencias de crisis y recuperación en empresas colombianas

Este estudio de caso consiste en analizar el funcionamiento al interior de la empresa Harinera Pardo S.A, las inversiones realizadas y las decisiones tomadas. También en ver el comportamiento del sector agroindustrial molinero, específicamente de trigo, ya que la empresa se desenvuelve en este mercado. Y por último, entender los factores que llevaron a la empresa objeto de estudio a verse afectada por una crisis empresarial. Con base en el concepto de “crisis” que cita Martin (2008), las causas que la generan en la empresa pueden ser internas, como problemas comerciales, de producción, de calidad, inadecuada infraestructura de costos, problemas de dirección, inversiones y demás o externas, como cambios en el mercado, el fenómeno de la globalización, influencia de los competidores, entre otros. Decidimos citar este autor ya que su visión sobre el concepto de crisis encierra varios factores que hacen parte del desarrollo del estudio de caso. De este estudio se espera aprender con una empresa del sector real, que caer en una crisis no necesariamente significa llegar a su fin, sino que con una adecuada reestructuración, esta puede enfrentar y superar el mal momento que esté atravesando. Para ello tendremos en cuenta la influencia del mercado internacional en la época de los 90´s y la coyuntura que se presentaba alrededor del sector molinero, al igual que el comportamiento al interior de la empresa durante este mismo periodo de tiempo, que fue previo a la recaída de la empresa. A demás, expondremos las opiniones y estrategias utilizadas por Rafael Pardo, presidente de Harinera Pardo, con las que gracias a su puesta en marcha durante los años de crisis, finalmente logró recuperarse en el año 2009. El trabajo es desarrollado por estudiantes de pregrado de Administración de Empresas y Administración de Negocios Internacionales de la Universidad del Rosario, y la investigación a realizar trata temas administrativos de crisis y recuperación.

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

El papel de los principios en las fallas de los regímenes internacionales: el Fondo Monetario Internacional en la crisis económica argentina de 2001

Este trabajo de grado busca analizar el papel que juegan los principios en las fallas del Régimen Internacional de Pagos a la hora de responder a situaciones de crisis, específicamente, en la actuación del Fondo Monetario Internacional durante la crisis económica argentina de 2001. El Régimen, atado al cumplimiento de sus principios, actuó de manera tal que produjo unas fallas que terminaron exacerbando la crisis. Mediante el análisis de fuentes primarias y secundarias, y con métodos tanto cualitativos como cuantitativos se busca demostrar que efectivamente, los principios en los que se fundamentan las actuaciones de los regímenes, que son creencias, tienden a tornarse dogmáticos, por lo tanto, se hacen resistentes al cambio y no permiten a las instituciones obrar de manera que se ajuste a la realidad. Es así que los principios llegan agravar las crisis que debían solucionar, tal y como sucedió en Argentina en 2001.

La crisis bancaria ecuatoriana ¿una crisis diferente? (Artículos Varios)

Este artículo tiene como objetivo realizar un ágil análisis comparativo de la crisis ecuatoriana para establecer si es posible atribuirle a ésta las mismas causas, medidas correctivas, los mismos costos y duración, que se les asigna a crisis similares en otros países, revelando, además, los argumentos que permiten concluir que la crisis del sistema financiero ecuatoriano no ha terminado aún.

Desigualdad, crisis y política de la rabia: la reconfiguracion de las clases sociales poscrisis en el Atlántico Norte (Otros Temas)

El artículo es un análisis de la crisis económica que mira hacia sus efectos sobre las relaciones de clase social. Se comprueba que la desigualdad ha crecido de manera importante en Norte América y Gran Bretaña en la época neoliberal, y se sugiere que, desde la perspectiva del consenso político actual, la tendencia se agudiza. El posible efecto sobre el orden social poscrisis y su impacto sobre la política, están en discusión.

The creation of euro area financial safety nets. Bruegel Working Paper 2012/09, July 2012

The financial crisis has exposed the need to devise stronger and broader international and regional safety nets in order to deal with economic and financial shocks and allow for countries to adjust. The euro area has developed several such mechanisms over the last couple of years through a process of trial and error and gradual enhancement and expansion. Their overall architecture remains imperfect and leaves areas of vulnerabilities. This paper provides an overview of the recent financial stability mechanisms and their various shortcomings and tries to brush the outline of a more comprehensive safety net architecture that would coherently address the banking, sovereign and external imbalances crises against both transitory and more permanent shocks. It aims to provide a roadmap for further improvements of the current mechanism and the creation of new devices including a banking resolution mechanism and amore powerfulmechanismto provide financial assistance addressing both the sovereign and external dimensions of the shocks thereby reducing the need for the ECB to fill the current void.