Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

A área curricular de matemática nos programas educativos individuais

Em acordo com o Dec. Lei nº 3/2008 de 7 de janeiro e para alunos com necessidades educativas especiais a medida currículo específico individual é considerada a mais restritiva de todas as medidas educativas. A área disciplinar da matemática, pela sua aplicabilidade no quotidiano, assume primordial importância no Programa Educativo Individual (PEI) destes alunos. Assim, o presente estudo visa analisar a área curricular de matemática dos PEI de alunos a frequentar o 2º e 3º ciclo de ensino básico ao abrigo da medida educativa currículo específico individual (CEI); visa igualmente constatar que seleção de conteúdos programáticos são percecionados como prioritários para a equipa que elabora o PEI. Em suma, o estudo visa compreender alguns aspetos que, de forma direta ou indireta, interagem com a elaboração do currículo. Tem, ainda, um caráter exploratório e está apoiado numa metodologia de natureza qualitativa e quantitativa (numa dimensão descritiva) que procede à análise documental de excertos (área curricular de matemática) dos Programas Educativos Individuais (PEI). Para o efeito foram analisados 50 PEI que identificaram regularidades relativas aos diferentes conteúdos e à extensão de cada conteúdo. Os resultados evidenciam uma escolha maioritária de conteúdos matemáticos associados ao programa do 1º ano do 1º ciclo do ensino básico e, simultaneamente, de descritores associados aos números e operações. Os resultados permitem extrapolar acerca da interação entre níveis de programação e de funcionalidade dos alunos em CEI e requerem mais estudos que sustentem aquelas evidências e clarifiquem variáveis que interagem na elaboração do currículo.

Balancing and lot-sizing mixed-model lines in the footwear industry

This report describes the full research proposal for the project \Balancing and lot-sizing mixed-model lines in the footwear industry", to be developed as part of the master program in Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores - Sistemas de Planeamento Industrial of the Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto. The Portuguese footwear industry is undergoing a period of great development and innovation. The numbers speak for themselves, Portugal footwear exported 71 million pairs of shoes to over 130 countries in 2012. It is a diverse sector, which covers different categories of women, men and children shoes, each of them with various models. New and technologically advanced mixed-model assembly lines are being projected and installed to replace traditional mass assembly lines. Obviously there is a need to manage them conveniently and to improve their operations. This work focuses on balancing and lot-sizing stitching mixed-model lines in a real world environment. For that purpose it will be fundamental to develop and evaluate adequate effective solution methods. Different objectives may be considered, which are relevant for the companies, such as minimizing the number of workstations, and minimizing the makespan, while taking into account a lot of practical restrictions. The solution approaches will be based on approximate methods, namely by resorting to metaheuristics. To show the impact of having different lots in production the initial maximum amount for each lot is changed and a Tabu Search based procedure is used to improve the solutions. The developed approaches will be evaluated and tested. A special attention will be given to the solution of real applied problems. Future work may include the study of other neighbourhood structures related to Tabu Search and the development of ways to speed up the evaluation of neighbours, as well as improving the balancing solution method.

The use of long acting sulfonamides, alone or with pyrimethamine, in malaria (with special reference to sulformetoxine)

Review of the early literature as well as more recent results show that sulfonamides possess a distinct antimalarial activity. However, when give alone, their action is less marked and slower than that of the antimalarials commonly used in the treatment of the acute attack. Combinations with pyrimethamine provide better results, even in cases of pyrimethamine and chloroquine resistance. This warrants further investigations in an attempt to develop a therapeutic agent suitable for the treatment of such resistant cases. It may also be possible with an appropriate combination of pyrimethamine with a sulfonamide to achieve a satisfactory method for suppressive treatment both in areas with and without pyrimethamine resistance. Three main points must still be carefully studied: 1) the risk of developing malaria resistance against one or both of the components of the combination. 2) The risk of developing bacterial resistance to sulfonamides if these substances are used on a large scale in too low doses. It seems indeed that antimalarial effect with the combination of sufonamides + pyrimethamine can be obtained with doses of sulfonamides which are below those usually employed in bacterial diseases. Since the range of the ratios providing potentiation is rather large, only ratios of the combination sulfonamides: pyrimethamine should be chosen in which an antfbacterial sulfonamidemia is guaranteed. 3) It goes without sayinq that, although both pyrimethamine and modem sulfonamides, when given by themselves, have proved tc possess a large margin of safety, long term administration of their combination should be careful studied from the point of view of possible side effects. Substantial evidence has already been produced to show that the long acting sulfonamide Fanasil (Ro 4-4393) given once or once weekly possesses marked schizonticidal activity against P. falciparum. Although its action is slower than that of 4-aminoquinolines, it may be useful as a second choice drug in semi-immune subjects for the therapy of falciparum malaria. Preliminary results show that, when combined with pyrimethamine, Fanasil is highly effective in suppressing fever and asexual parasitemia due to P. falciparum. Single doses of 1 g Fanasil together with 50 mg pyrimethamine seem to be adequate for the treatment of acute falciparum malaria in semi-immune patients. The onset of action of the combination is much more rapid than that of the single components. Weekly doses of 500 mg Fanasil and 25 mg pyrimeihamine appear to provide satisfactory suppressive effects against P. falciparum at least in East Africa. This combination is active on strains which do not respond satisfactorily to the standard doses of pyrimethamine and/or chloroquine and seems to have a satisfactory sporontocidal effect. Preliminary results indicate that Fanasil alone cannot be recommended for use against the other human malaria parasites. The combination with pyrimethamine appears to be much more effective. East African strains of P. malariae seem to respond better to the combination than do Malayan strains of P. vivax but further trials are required before definite assessment can be made. Fanasil by itself has no gametocytoddal or sporontocidal action but seems to potentiate the effect of pyrimethamine at least on sporogony of P. falciparum.

An internal analysis of Amorim Turismo’s operations regarding food and beverage with a focus on operational efficiency and quality of service

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

José Mourinho, The special one: A pedagogical case

The purpose of this work is to create a case to reflect about the leadership role of José Mourinho in Real Madrid CF, considering his successful background experiences in FC Porto, Chelsea FC and FC Inter. The case is based on the failure of the Special One in Real Madrid CF. This paper is mainly focused in the leadership process, charismatic leadership and contingency theory of leadership. Moreover it is intended to introduce concepts about the influence of leaders in the organizational culture, the management of human resources, and the role of a leader adapting to a different context.

Treatment of American tegumentary leishmaniasis in special populations: a summary of evidence

We aimed to assess and synthesize the information available in the literature regarding the treatment of American tegumentary leishmaniasis in special populations. We searched MEDLINE (via PubMed), EMBASE, LILACS, SciELO, Scopus, Cochrane Library and mRCT databases to identify clinical trials and observational studies that assessed the pharmacological treatment of the following groups of patients: pregnant women, nursing mothers, children, the elderly, individuals with chronic diseases and individuals with suppressed immune systems. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. The available evidence suggests that the treatments of choice for each population or disease entity are as follows: nursing mothers and children (meglumine antimoniate or pentamidine), patients with renal disease (amphotericin B or miltefosine), patients with heart disease (amphotericin B, miltefosine or pentamidine), immunosuppressed patients (liposomal amphotericin), the elderly (meglumine antimoniate), pregnant women (amphotericin B) and patients with liver disease (no evidence available). The quality of evidence is low or very low for all groups. Accurate controlled studies are required to fill in the gaps in evidence for treatment in special populations. Post-marketing surveillance programs could also collect relevant information to guide treatment decision-making.

Energy expenditure after 2- to 3-hour elective surgical operations

Energy expenditure was measured by indirect calorimetry in 17 adult patients (8 women and 9 men) before surgery, 4 hours immediately after surgery , and 24 hours late after surgery in patients undergoing elective surgery of small-to-medium scope. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The total duration of surgery ranged from 2 to 3 hours. Repeated measures were performed on the same patient, so that each patient was considered to be his/her own control. All patients received a 5% dextrose solution (2000 mL/day) throughout the postoperative period. RESULTS: Men showed a reduction in CO2 production during the immediately after surgery period (257±42 mL/min) compared to before surgery (306±48 mL/min) and late after surgery (301±45 mL/min); this reduction was not observed in women. Energy expenditure was also lower in men during immediately after surgery (6.6 kJ/min). None of the other measurements, including substrate oxidation, showed significant differences. CONCLUSION: Therefore, elective surgery itself cannot be considered an important trauma that would result in increased energy expenditure. According to this study, it is not necessary to prescribe an energy supply exceeding basal expenditure during the immediate after-surgery period. The present results suggest that the energy supply prescribed during the postoperative period after elective surgery of small-to-medium scope should not exceed 5-7 kJ/min, so the patient does not receive a carbohydrate overload from energy supplementation.

A generic treatment of Alismatidae in the Neotropics with special reference to Brazil

A Subclasse Alismatidae nos neotrópicos é composta de nove famílias com 11 gêneros das quais, nove ocorrem na bacia amazônica e cinco no Brasil extra-amazônico. Apenas duas famílias não estão presentes no Brasil e mais duas ausentes da Amazônia brasileira. Este trabalho apresenta descrições detalhadas das famílias e gêneros, além de comentários sobre distribuição geográfica dos gêneros. As famílias estão organizadas na sequência sistemática que nós aceitamos. Os gêneros de cada família estão organizados em ordem alfabética i=sem significado sistemático. Fornecemos desenhos de pelo menos um gênero para cada família. Referências importantes -- tais como revisões genéricas, levantamentos da literatura, ou monografias de áreas neotropicais — estão relacionadas no início de cada tratamento a nível de família. As excelentes coleções do Projeto Flora Amazônica foram de importância decisiva para nosso trabalho-, sem elas não poderiamoi fazer um tratamento genérico completo para toda a região neotrópica.

Entre a plasticidade do corpo e da imagem : contributos para uma viagem interactiva pelos territórios incertos da arte contemporânea

Este trabalho de investigação começou por ser estruturado em torno de quatro grandes capítulos (quatro grandes linhas de orientação temática), todos eles amplamente desenvolvidos no sentido de podermos cartografar alguns dos principais territórios e sintomas da arte contemporânea, sendo certo também, que cada um deles assenta precisamente nos princípios de uma estrutura maleável que, para todos os efeitos, se encontra em processo de construção (work in progress), neste caso, graças à plasticidade do corpo, do espaço, da imagem e do uso criativo das tecnologias digitais, no âmbito das quais, aliás, tudo se parece produzir, transformar e disseminar hoje em dia à nossa volta (quase como se de uma autêntica viagem interactiva se tratasse). Por isso, a partir daqui, todo o esforço que se segue procurará ensaiar uma hipótese de trabalho (desenvolver uma investigação) que, porventura, nos permita desbravar alguns caminhos em direcção aos intermináveis túneis do futuro, sempre na expectativa de podermos dar forma, função e sentido a um desejo irreprimível de liberdade criativa, pois, a arte contemporânea tem essa extraordinária capacidade de nos transportar para muitos outros lugares do mundo, tão reais e imaginários como a nossa própria vida. Assim sendo, há que sumariar algumas das principais etapas a desenvolver ao longo desta investigação. Ora, num primeiro momento, começaremos por reflectir sobre o conceito alargado de «crise» (a crise da modernidade), para logo de seguida podermos abordar a questão da crise das antigas categorias estéticas, questionando assim, para todos os efeitos, quer o conceito de «belo» (Platão) e de «gosto» (Kant), quer ainda o conceito de «forma» (Foccilon), não só no sentido de tentarmos compreender algumas das principais razões que terão estado na origem do chamado «fim da arte» (Hegel), mas também algumas daquelas que terão conduzido à estetização generalizada da experiência contemporânea e à sua respectiva disseminação pelas mais variadas plataformas digitais. Num segundo momento, procuraremos reflectir sobre alguns dos principais problemas da inquietante história das imagens, nomeadamente para tentarmos perceber como é que todas estas transformações técnicas (ligadas ao aparecimento da fotografia, do cinema, do vídeo, do computador e da internet) terão contribuído para o processo de instauração e respectivo alargamento daquilo que todos nós ficaríamos a conhecer como a nova «era da imagem», ou a imagem na «era da sua própria reprodutibilidade técnica» (Benjamin), pois, só assim é que conseguiremos interrogar este imparável processo de movimentação, fragmentação, disseminação, simulação e interacção das mais variadas «formas de vida» (Nietzsche, Agamben). Entretanto, chegados ao terceiro grande momento, interessa-nos percepcionar a arte contemporânea como uma espécie de plataforma interactiva que, por sua vez, nos levará a interpelar alguns dos principais dispositivos metafóricos e experimentais da viagem, neste caso, da viagem enquanto linha facilitadora de acesso à arte, à cultura e à vida contemporânea em geral, ou seja, todo um processo de reflexão que nos incitará a cartografar alguns dos mais atractivos sintomas provenientes da estética do flâneur (na perspectiva de Rimbaud, Baudelaire, Long e Benjamin) e, consequentemente, a convocar algumas das principais sensações decorrentes da experiência altamente sedutora daqueles que vivem mergulhados na órbita interactiva do ciberespaço (na condição de ciberflâneurs), quase como se o mundo inteiro, agora, fosse tão somente um espaço poético «inteiramente navegável» (Manovich). Por fim, no quarto e último momento, procuraremos fazer uma profunda reflexão sobre a inquietante história do corpo, principalmente com o objectivo de reforçar a ideia de que apesar das suas inúmeras fragilidades biológicas (um ser que adoece e morre), o corpo continua a ser uma das «categorias mais persistentes de toda a cultura ocidental» (Ieda Tucherman), não só porque ele resistiu a todas as transformações que lhe foram impostas historicamente, mas também porque ele se soube reinventar e readaptar pacientemente face a todas essas transformações históricas. Sinal evidente de que a sua plasticidade lhe iria conferir, principalmente a partir do século XX («o século do corpo») um estatuto teórico e performativo verdadeiramente especial. Tão especial, aliás, que basta termos uma noção, mesmo que breve, da sua inquietante história para percebermos imediatamente a extraordinária importância dalgumas das suas mais variadas transformações, atracções, ligações e exibições ao longo das últimas décadas, nomeadamente sob o efeito criativo das tecnologias digitais (no âmbito das quais se processam algumas das mais interessantes operações de dinamização cultural e artística do nosso tempo). Em suma, esperamos sinceramente que este trabalho de investigação possa vir a contribuir para o processo de alargamento das fronteiras cada vez mais incertas, dinâmicas e interactivas do conhecimento daquilo que parece constituir, hoje em dia, o jogo fundamental da nossa contemporaneidade.

[Editorial] Introduction to the special issue on COST Action FA1001

This Special Issue gathers selected contributions from experts of the action on several aspects of food structure design explored throughout the actions activity, from basic science to applications and behavior of foods during digestion.

Localization in underground tunnels

Positioning technologies are becoming ubiquitous and are being used more and more frequently for supporting a large variety of applica- tions. For outdoor applications, global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), such as the global positioning system (GPS), are the most common and popular choice because of their wide coverage. GPS is also augmented with network-based systems that exploit existing wireless and mobile networks for providing positioning functions where GPS is not available or to save energy in battery-powered devices. Indoors, GNSSs are not a viable solution, but many applications require very accurate, fast, and exible positioning, tracking, and navigation functions. These and other requirements have stim- ulated research activities, in both industry and academia, where a variety of fundamental principles, techniques, and sensors are being integrated to provide positioning functions to many applications. The large majority of positioning technologies is for indoor environments, and most of the existing commercial products have been developed for use in of ce buildings, airports, shopping malls, factory plants, and similar spaces. There are, however, other spaces where positioning, tracking, and navigation systems play a central role in safety and in rescue operations, as well as in supporting speci c activities or for scienti c research activities in other elds. Among those spaces are underground tunnels, mines, and even underwater wells and caves. This chapter describes the research efforts over the past few years that have been put into the development of positioning systems for underground tun- nels, with particular emphasis in the case of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research), where localiza- tion aims at enabling more automatic and unmanned radiation surveys. Examples of positioning and localization systems that have been devel- oped in the past few years for underground facilities are presented in the fol- lowing section, together with a brief characterization of those spaces’ special conditions and the requirements of some of the most common applications. Section 5.2 provides a short overview of some of the most representative research efforts that are currently being carried out by many research teams around the world. In addition, some of the fundamental principles and tech- niques are identi ed, such as the use of leaky coaxial cables, as used at the LHC. In Section 5.3, we introduce the speci c environment of the LHC and de ne the positioning requirements for the envisaged application. This is followed by a detailed description of our approach and the results that have been achieved so far. Some last comments and remarks are presented in a nal section.

Planeamento fiscal e reestruturação empresarial: análise dos ordenamentos jurídicos português e brasileiro

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito Tributário e Fiscal

Caracterização e otimização de uma vitrine frigorífica

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Mecânica